IEA PVPS PVSEC-21, December Trends in PV Applications in Developing Regions/Countries

Transcription

1 IEA PVPS PVSEC-21, December Trends in PV Applications in Developing Regions/Countries Peter Ahm, PA Energy Ltd., Denmark

2 Potential of Solar Energy 1 hours sunshine ~ 1 years global energy consumption Global Annual Energy Consumption Energy Reserves Gas Oil Uranium Coal Annual Solar Irradiation Hydro Biomass Wind 2

3 Global PV Installations 2011 estimated at MW MW Source: PV Status Report, JRC. 3

4 Trend Grid Connected vs. Stand Alone Off-grid functionality originally the raison d etre for PV PVPS Member Countries only Will this trend change due to decreasing cost and increasing applications in DC s? 4

5 PV in Developing Countries Source : REN-21 5

6 Energy Poverty 1,4 billion no access Access to Electricity 2010 Source: IEA

7 Energy Poverty 1.4 billion no access Residential electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa equals that of the City of New York 7

8 Energy Poverty 1.4 billion no access 8

9 PV should be a good candidate to Because: mitigate energy poverty It is able to generate anywhere does not require costly infrastructure as a power grid It is modular and adaptable to any power need It is a robust (in principle) technology requiring little in terms of maintenance 9

10 Typical PV Applications in DC s 1/5 Stand-alone Applications Pico PV Systems (< 10 W) for light & communication Very market oriented and private sector driven Lack of standards and quality control measures Difficult to control, but commercially interesting new field 10

11 Typical PV Applications in DC s 2/5 Solar Home Systems ( W) A host of both sustainable and non-sustainable initiatives Donor actions: buy-down, awareness and quality assurance 11

12 Typical PV Applications in DC s 3/5 Institutional Systems (150 - <1000 W) Health Clinics, Schools, Admin. Facilities Traditional field for donor support MDG oriented Traditional problem: sustainability 12

13 Typical PV Applications in DC s 4/5 Commercial Systems (150 - <1000 W) Communal Services Commercials on market conditions, communal needs support; problem: sustainability 13

14 Typical PV Applications in DC s 5/5 - Rural Electrification, stand alone (1-20 kw) - Rural Electrification, co-generation ( kw - Rural Electrification is not a viable business on its own 14

15 Field Problems -Maintenance (budget, supply chain) - Theft and vandalisme 15

16 PV System Failures in RSA Schools Clinics 16

17 History (1/5) In the 1970 s and 1980 s enthusiastic NGO s deployed PV despite high cost - for: Health clinics: lights, vaccine refrigerators Schools: lights (night classes) Water pumping: potable water Battery charging: car batteries weekly re-charge Problems: Competence in O&M underestimated Need of a supply chain underestimated Result: Almost all projects failed: PV got a bad reputation 17

18 History (2/5) In the 1990 s PV came back driven by donors: World Solar Summit 1993 in Paris; 1996 in Harare; World Solar Decade Many multilaterals and bilaterals launched initiatives and projects with in general dubious results. 18

19 History (3/5) WHO approached PV proff. - Created norms & standards - Created test procedures - Nominated test labs - Approved products - PV modules - charge controllers - batteries - BoS & appliances Result: Relative successful -Initial problems: O&M, ownership - Sustainability in MoH budget difficult 19

20 History (4/5) WBG Photovoltaic Projects Serving >1,43 million HH + Facilities ~7.5 million persons ~64 MWp 31 Countries Total Value: ~$776 million Argentina 30,000 Bolivia 60,000 Ecuador 2,200 Honduras Dominican Rep. Mexico 1,000 Mexico 36,000 Nicaragua 6,000 Includes projects completed, under implementation and preparation Burkina Faso 8,000 Bangladesh 198,000 Cape Verde 4,500 Cambodia 10,000 Ethiopia 6,300 China 400,000 Kenya India 45,000+ Madagascar 15,000 Indonesia 8,500 Mali 10,000 Laos 4,000 Morocco Mongolia 50,000 Mozambique 9,800 Pacific Islands 21,000 Senegal 10,000 Philippines 135,000 Swaziland 2,000 PNG 2,500 Uganda 90,000 Sri Lanka 105,000 Tanzania 140,000 Vietnam 20

21 Recent WBG PV Projects 2009 in: PRC, Gambia, Phillippines, Uganda, and Vietnam in: Haiti, India, Phillippines, and Thailand (pipeline) in: India, Egypt, India, Senegal, and RSA. Type of projects: GEF: 2 IBRD/IDA: 5 IFC: >12 Trend: private sector, manufacturing, large scale 21

22 History (5/5) Many SHS programmes suffers from: Unsustainable after end of project Financing mechanism stops Supply chain stops O&M facilities stops Project specific standards Standards not anchored locally 22

23 The PV Sun Belt The New Market Source: EPIA

24 Mapping of Sun Belt PV Potential Source: EPIA

25 Share of Electricity from RE existing in 2009 and targets Country/Region Existing share (excl. hydro) Future Target Bangladesh - 5 % by % by 2020 Cape Verde - 50 % by 2020 China 0,8 % 3 % by 2020 Ghana - 10 % by 2020 India 14 % 10 % by 2012 Mauritius 37 % 65 % by 2028 Mongolia 3 % % by 2020 Nigeria ~ 0 % 7 % by 2025 Pakistan ~ 0 % 10 % by 2012 Philippines 33 % 40 % by 2020 Rwanda - 90 % by 2012 Sri Lanka 0,1 % 10 % by % by 2022 Tonga - 50 % by

26 Lack of Regulatory Framework Source: REN-21 26

27 Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Some DC s Source: IEA 27

28 Mini-grid Potential a New-comer? 28

29 PV may after all has its potential as (mini-) grid connected also in DCs? AC coupled DC coupled 29

30 IEA WEO 2011 Energy For All Scenario 30

31 Promoting EE Asia Solar Energy Initiative and RE In May 2010, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an Asian solar energy initiative to generate some 3,000 megawatts of solar power over the next three years. The Asia Solar Energy Initiative (ASEI) aims to identify and develop large capacity solar projects that will generate some 3,000 MW of solar power by ADB plans to provide $2.25 billion in finance to the initiative, which is expected to leverage an additional $6.75 billion in solar power investments over the same period. 31

32 Promoting EE Asia Solar Energy Initiative and RE ASEI will also establish and host the Asia Pacific Solar Forum (APSF), an international knowledge-sharing platform. APSF s goals are 1) Support the global Private Sector to communicate with Developing Member Countries (DMCs) Governments and Utilities to develop relevant policy and regulatory framework. 2) Develop institutional capacity of DMCs government agencies and utilities. 3) Mobilize concessional resources together with ADB in consultation with donor countries and agencies. 4) Implement grant-based Pre-Feasibility study for MW projects and roof top / off grid (mini-grid) projects. 5) Structure innovative financing for the pilot projects. Trend: private sector mobilisation, large scale grid-connected systems 32

33 Observations (1) PV technology in terms of kw (capacity) is grid connected. PV as technology to mitigate electricity poverty has not proven itself on the SHS level with very few exceptions (e.g. Bangladesh). PV in support of meeting the MDG s has so far only been partly successful. PV to address small scale off-grid energy needs has proven difficult. PV to feed into grids and now also mini-grids appear much more successful. 33

34 Observations (2) The current trend for PV in most emerging economies and DC s is towards large scale grid connected systems and mini-grids. A viable combination of addressing electricity poverty and establishing sustainable PV solutions appears to be mini-grids. Unlocking the sun-belt PV market will probably be via grid-connected PV solutions. PV can support weak grids also in urban areas. The marriage PV & grid is much more successful than that of PV & storage (stand alone) 34

35 Observations (3) I believe we face a coming huge deployment of PV in developing regions/countries, but mainly - GW - in terms of PV technology connected to the grid (incl. min-grids). The original belief of PV having its strength in small stand-alone applications is more or less outdated. The marriage of PV and other RE generating technologies to the grid is unbeatable numerous technical and nontechnical advantages. PV will inside few years be a significant generator in developing regions/countries. Small-scale stand-alone PV will be a niche. 35

36 Thank you for your attention! Peter Ahm, IEA-PVPS Executive Committee, Denmark 36