B.C. s Energy Future. Ines Piccinino, Assistant Deputy Minister Upstream Development Division BC Ministry of Natural Gas Development 1

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1 Fuelling our Economy: s Natural Gas Potential and the LNG Opportunity B.C. s Energy Future Ines Piccinino, Assistant Deputy Minister Upstream Division BC 1

2 BC s Policy Framework BC Strategic Vision- Natural Gas is key BC Jobs Plan: 3 LNG plants by 2020 BC Natural Gas Strategy February, 2012 BC LNG Strategy 2

3 Vision - Global Leader in Natural Gas s Natural Gas Strategy Maintain current and develop new markets Ensure a reliable, abundant supply Maintain competitiveness Maximize benefits to BC citizens Ensure environmentally responsible development Build partnerships to promote development 3

4 LNG A New Natural Resource for BC Vision is 3+ LNG plants operating by 2020 Keep BC competitive in the global LNG market Maintain BC s leadership on climate change and clean energy Keep energy rates affordable for families, communities and industry BC s Liquefied Natural Gas Strategy 4

5 BC s Oil and Gas Profile Well connected to North American and Asian markets. 90% of oil and gas rights are owned by the Province. Capital spending by industry on exploration and development in 2011 was $6.7 billion ($4 billion estimated for 2012 CAPP) Oil and gas revenue in fiscal 2011/12 accounted for about 49% of total natural resource sector revenue in BC. 5

6 Farrell Creek Area Vast Resources B.C. has a vast supply of natural gas, primarily in the northeast region. There is estimated to be 2,933 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas in place in British Columbia. The Montney play alone has 1,965 tcf of gas in place of which 271 tcf is expected to be recoverable for market. The Horn River play has 448 tcf of gas in place of which 78 tcf is expected to be recoverable for market. In fiscal 2012/13, produced approximately 1.2 tcf of marketable natural gas. 6

7 Shift to unconventional gas continues... In March 2013, over 60% of BC s gas production stream was from unconventional sources such as tight gas and shale gas. Horizontal multi-frac technology has increased production in many areas. Less than 20% of all gas wells drilled in BC are conventional vertical wells. 7

8 Raw Natural Gas Production BC produced 1.46 Tcf of raw gas in 2012 (1.27 Tcf marketable) BC consumed over 15% of its marketable gas production in 2012 remainder of production exported to eastern Canada and to the U.S. 33 per cent increase 2003 to

9 Drilling Activity 2011 Rig Releases 2012 Rig Releases 2013 Rig Releases 9

10 Future Resource Prospects Liquids-Rich Gas Prospects Montney Play Trend Large proportion of the Montney play has economically benefitted by the presence of liquids rich gas. Nig Creek Umbach Focused development of the Montney wet gas trend began in 2009/2010 as natural gas commodity prices were falling. Altares WET GAS Fireweed Inga The current rate of development is not only an indication of the more favourable reservoir characteristics (porosity, organic carbon content, pressures), but also a reflection of the higher natural gas liquid (C2 C4) and condensate (C5 C12) concentrations of the formation. Producers continue to push the limits of the northeastern, liquids-rich portion of the fairway. Zones of dry gas, wet gas, wet gas+oil, and oil within the Montney Formation (derived from sales gas data). Source: Geoscience Reports 2013, BC 10 WET GAS/OIL? Fort St. John DRY GAS WET GAS OIL Septimus Dawson Creek

11 Being Competitive in Shale Gas Low natural gas prices in North America are here to stay BC has competitiveness challenges, recognizes them and acts accordingly Competitiveness studies every two years A decade of progressive, responsive, innovative royalty programs 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% 24% -1% -25% Arkoma Woodford ROR of North American Shale Gas Plays in different Price Scenarios 55% 22% -11% Barnett Average 68% 43% Cana Woodford 19% 17% 4% 68% 29% -9% -9% 47% 17% -14% Duvernay Fayetteville Haynesville Tx 44% 9% -27% -27% -52% -77% Haynesville La Horn River w/o NPI 15% -16% -49% Horn River with NPI 74% 37% 0% Marcellus 58% 25% -8% Montney Dawson Source: Peters & Co Economic Tool Feb

12 Prudent 3-yr forecasts for Natural Gas From Budget 2014 Natural gas royalties are expected to increase at a 16.4 per cent average annual rate over the next 3 years, reflecting higher prices and production volumes partially offset by increased utilization of royalty programs and credits. Forecast assumes a price of $2.45 ($Cdn/gigajoule, plant inlet) in 2014/15 - this is within the 20th percentile of the private sector forecasters In the last two years of BC s 3-year fiscal plan, prices are expected to increase $0.20 and $0.25 per year respectively, consistent with the growth of the average of the private sector forecasters. Natural gas royalty rates are sensitive to price when the prices are between $1.25 and $2.75 per gigajoule, therefore, the net effective royalty rates are expected to increase as natural gas prices increase. 12

13 Upstream Royalties in BC What we have... Deep drilling royalty programs Vertical well, horizontal well, multi-lateral well Deep re-entry well Deep discovery well Coalbed Methane Royalty Program Infrastructure Royalty Credit Program (roads and pipelines) Net Profit Royalty Program How they work... Programs can be combined in many cases, thus providing enough margin to move certain projects to economic territory Example - a well that includes a road project (an infrastructure credit), is deep, and is marginal can receive all the associated benefits for those programs. 13

14 Targeted Royalty Programs - examples What was the challenge? What was the solution? Western Canada sedimentary basin deepens towards the West Deep Well Royalty Credit Program New, conventional wells with lower productivity Marginal Royalty Program Tight gas development Ultra-marginal (tight gas) Royalty Program White spaces and areas with limited infrastructure (roads/pipes) available Infrastructure Royalty Credit Program ($120M in royalty credits annually) 14

15 Drilling /well Royalty Programs Drilling credit programs Existing Deep well royalty Program provides royalty deductions based on depth, location and gas quality. Vertical wells deeper than 2,500 metres. Horizontal wells deeper than 2,300 metres. The deep well credit can only be used to reduce royalties for the well event for which it was assigned. Well productivity programs Marginal Qualification: wells under threshold of 80 mcf/d/100m first 12 months of production Royalty Rate reduction: calculated as a formula for those months when production is below 880 mcf/d Ultra-marginal Qualification: shallow wells under threshold of 40 mcf/d/100m first 12 months of production Royalty Rate reduction: calculated as formula for those months when production is below 40 mcf/d/100m 15

16 Infrastructure Investment programs Infrastructure Royalty Credit Program Up to 50% of the cost of building high grade roads and/or pipelines in royalty credits. Program is competed through annual Request for Applications New program applications by April 16, 2014 and approved projects announced in June 2014 Since 2004, the Province has awarded over $830 million in royalty deductions to eligible oil and gas companies. more than 200 new or upgraded all-season roads and pipeline projects in B.C. over the past decade. New total capital investment of more than $1.9 billion without direct cost to government. 16

17 Keeping the Upstream Competitive BC recognizes to stay competitive and realize benefits from our natural gas resource, we need to make adjustments to upstream royalties as needed Upstream royalties are a key part of the fiscal regime that companies consider before they make FIDs for LNG investments Recently dropped a summer royalty credit program Changed minimum royalty on deep well program to 3% Looking at other changes including credits for shallower wells <1900m to reflect changes in drilling techniques 17

18 A Unique Opportunity Low natural gas prices in North America due to shale gas abundance High demand for clean, reliable fuels and need for source diversification in Asia Arbitrage Opportunity Markets / Value added products 18

19 Single-window regulator in the BC Oil and Gas Commission Modern legislation Oil and Gas Activities Act, October 2010 Targeted geoscience activities to support development and reduce investment risk Strong governance structure: Cabinet Working Group on LNG New Deputy Minister s Committee on LNG (policy/decision support) LNG Project Board (Operational ADMs) LNG Task Force (Secretariat/Project Management/Performance Tracking) Stable Regulatory Framework for NG 19

20 Project - Kitimat BC LNG Douglas Channel Texan company / Haisla partnership Received NEB export license in February 2012 Expected to be online by 2015 KLNG Apache / Chevron Pacific Trail Pipelines Provincial and federal EA approved; NEB export license approved -10Mtpa Expected to be online by 2017 LNG Canada Shell / Mitsubishi / Petro China / KOGAS Preparing Environmental applications; applied for NEB export license - 24Mtpa TransCanada building dedicated $4 billion pipeline : Coastal GasLink Pipeline Expected to be online by 2019 KLNG Site July

21 Projects - Prince Rupert BG Group has land rights for a large LNG Facility on Prince Rupert Port Authority Spectra Natural Gas Transportation System (with BG Group) Sept 2012; $6-8 B investment Large Diameter Pipe, 4.7 Bcf/day capacity NE BC to Prince Rupert PETRONAS/Progress developing project proposal for a Lelu Island Site TransCanada $5B Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project 21

22 Other Areas / Location TBD Additional Potential Projects Woodfibre LNG Project Proposed to build small-scale LNG processing and export facilities at Howe Sound, Squamish, B.C. Discovery LNG Project Quicksilver Proposed to build LNG facilities on a former Catalyst Paper Corp. pulp mill site in Campbell River, B.C. ExxonMobil (Imperial Oil) Exploring LNG export opportunity Other undisclosed proponents?? 22

23 In Summary B.C. is well integrated to overall North American markets Natural gas development is the highest priority of B.C. government B.C. has a competitive and secure fiscal regime B.C. has a vast energy resource and long experience in the upstream business 23

24 Natural Gas in By adopting a more aggressive approach to the development of the natural gas sector, I am confident B.C. can create a prosperous LNG industry Premier Christy Clark September 2011 Contact: Ines Piccinino, Assistant Deputy Minister Upstream Division, B.C. Ph: (250) ines.piccinino@gov.bc.ca 24