SADC Investment Policy and Regional Integration

Transcription

1 SADC Investment Policy and Regional Integration SUSTAINABLE INVESTING IN MOZAMBIQUE: PROMOTING INTEGRATION OF MULTI-SECTOR FDI LESLEY WENTWORTH ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY PROGRAMME

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3 NACALA CORRIDOR BRAZILIAN/JAPANESE FDI -Fertile land suitable for agriculture -Coal in Tete, 2.5 bn tons (but fall in price of coal brings need for FDI alliances - Vale and Mitsui) -Zambezi River Basin access (Moatize River), pollution challenges -Development corridor linking Mozambique and Malawi with the port through rail link and upgrade of Nacala port Vale and Mitsui -How to integrate these sectors and benefit of Mozambique citizens and local industry? * Mozambique s potential as a transit corridor and an access point to the sea for its landlocked neighbours, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi has received attention from several major investors. But the corridors are also of interest for export of resources

4 Potential of Resources and Agriculture The vast coal discoveries in the Tete basin amongst largest reserves in the world. However, the development of these coal reserves presents significant challenges, particularly due to the lack of infrastructure in the country. Resources Investors include: Brazilian, Australian, Japanese, Indian, Chinese At the same time, Foreign interests in agricultural land precipitated by the food crisis spike in prices of agriculture commodity and energy in E.g., Gulf States, South Korea, China and Japan began encouraging their MNCs to acquire land in Southern Africa, viewed as the bread basket supplying advanced economies cheaply with agricultural produce. The Mozambique government has allowed foreign agricultural investment, particularly in the Nacala Corridor. *Prosavanna project

5 Agriculture in S-S Africa MP McHenry and GJ Persley

6 Megaprojects leading economic development These megaprojects included the rehabilitation of the Cahora Bassa hydropower project. South Africa's Trans-Africa Projects (TAP) assisted Hidroelectrica De Cahora Bassa (HCB) appoint joint venture company comprising Consorzio Italia 2000 and Enel. Also, the construction of the Mozal aluminum smelter ( ) which was Mozambique s prime post-civil war megaproject a joint venture between BHP Billiton (47.1 percent), Mitsubishi Corp. (25 percent), Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa (24 percent), and the Government of Mozambique (3.9 percent). Finally, the Maputo Development Corridor (MDC) Initiative was established as a build-operate and transfer concession awarded to TransAfrica Concessions (made up of French multinational Bouygues, and South African construction firms Basil Read and Stocks & Stocks). The MDC connects South Africa s Gauteng Province with the Mozambican port of Maputo (via road and rail links with the Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces in South Africa).

7 Megaprojects leading economic development From early 2000s, mining companies began venturing into Mozambique, including investments in the Kenmare Heavy Sands project; in 2011 Brazilian miner, Vale, and Australian Rio Tinto began exploration for coal in the Tete Province; and gas exploration and construction of a liquefied natural gas plant was undertaken by Italian ENI and the US s Anadarko, along with several smaller investments in the Rovuma basin off-shore in northern Mozambique.

8 Megaprojects spillovers and linkages? Clearly, mega-projects in Mozambique have made a significant difference to FDI flows and gross capital formation. However, the extent to which this has translated into positive spillovers into local businesses or significant employment creation is questionable. There are views from within the country that benefits do not flow equitably to the domestic economy in comparison with what foreign investors enjoy. Perhaps more pertinently, UNCTAD points out the inherent difficulty in establishing linkages between these mega-projects which are capital intensive and export-oriented and the local industries which have not yet reached the level of business and financial innovation. A large proportion of the domestic economy is made up of an informal sector, focused on subsistence farming.

9 Mozambique Economic Indicators Mozambique s GDP grew by between 6.3% and 8.7% from 2003 to 2012 and was projected to stay above 8% for some time. However, in 2014 real GDP growth was at 7.6% and was adjusted downward by the IMF to 6.3 % (significantly lower than the anticipated 7.5 %) for 2015, expected to accelerate to 6.5 per cent in The country s economic growth has shown positive momentum until the real impact of the external shock of the drop in commodity prices. In addition, the balance of payments deficit and declining international reserves and currency have had an overall dampening effect on the economy. The extractives industries and big supporting infrastructure projects had been driving growth aided by liberalisation and stable macroeconomic policies on the one hand, and widespread donor support on the other.

10 Mozambique Economic Indicators Notwithstanding this strong economic growth, Mozambique s GDP per capita is below low income country average. The country ranks 178th out of 187 countries in the 2013 Human Development Index (HDI), and is rated at which is below the average of for countries in the Low Human Development group and below the average of for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank World Economic Prospects President Filipe Nyusi: nexus of financial difficulties including a sharp devaluation of the metical against the dollar, declining foreign reserves, cuts in foreign investment [$4.9/$6.3 billion] and external support and a rising debt.

11 Top 10 Mozambican Sectors Receiving FDI Industry Sector Capex (USD Million) Projects Coal, Oil and Natural Gas 19, Real Estate 9, Metals 2, Food & Tobacco 2, Wood Products 2, Paper, Printing and Packaging 2,300 1 Chemicals 2, Warehousing & Storage Building & Construction Materials Communications Source: fdi Intelligence, from the Financial Times Ltd Notes: by Capex flow, January 2003 May 2015, All Capex figures shown are in USD

12 Aid flows financing reconstruction During the 1990s, the country relied on aid flows to finance reconstruction including, from debt relief through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in 1999 and 2001, and from the Multilateral Debt Reduction Initiative (MDRI) in Beneficiary of the Enhanced Integrated Framework (A4T) In the decade after the civil war (starting 1992) economic reconstruction efforts came mainly in the form of large projects focused on rebuilding the country s infrastructure. These projects were financed largely by foreign debt and equity, aided by multilateral and regional development banks.

13 Country Comparison for Investor Protection Mozambique Sub-Saharan Africa United States Germany Index of Transaction Transparency* Index of Manager s Responsibility** Index of Shareholders Power*** Index of Investor Protection**** Source: Doing Business 2014, Santander. Note: *The Greater the Index, the More Transparent the Conditions of Transactions. **The Greater the Index, the More the Manager is Personally Responsible. *** The Greater the Index, the Easier it Will Be For Shareholders to Take Legal Action. **** The Greater the Index, the Higher the Level of Investor Protection.

14 Investment Policy Framework Decree of 2009 in August 2009 replaced Mozambique s Law on Investment (1993) Sectors for local ownership private security companies, media companies and game hunting concessions. Investment Promotion Center (CPI) and the Special Economic Zones Office (GAZEDA) oversee domestic and foreign investment. Public Private Partnership (PPP) and Large-Scale Project (LSP) (or the Mega Projects) Law (Law No. 15/2011 of 10 August 2011) which sets local ownership standards (5-20%) New Mining Law (Law No. 20/2014 of 18 August, 2014) which replaces the 2002 Act and attempts to re-balance the terms of mining activities in favour of local actors Sets local content requirements for the procurement of goods and services for mining activities designed to promote Mozambican businesses and expertise.

15 Investment Policy Framework Growth corridors have been established to create investment opportunities for sustainable agriculture, supporting smallholders and agriculture SMMEs. The Land Act 1997 establishes free use and benefit of land for domestic small-scale cooperatives and associations. In the forestry sector, simple licenses (SLs) are for the benefit of local investors, given the lower requirements compared with other licenses or concessions. However, there is the vulnerability to abuse through lack of oversight. Most entrepreneurial activities under SLs need not be in compliance with regulations, meaning the loss of potential State revenue and unsustainable resource use. Private sector agricultural investments in developing countries provide potential for growth, but controversy around acquisition of farmlands by private capital. Conflicts over land and water resources often surface between private companies and local inhabitants as land grabs by foreign investors take place.

16 Land Policy Agricultural activity in Mozambique holds potential for rapid growth, however, estimates show that approximately only 15 percent of the 36 million hectares of available land is being farmed. The National Land Policy allows for strong protection of community-based land rights, community consultation with respect to partnerships with investors, and also secure rights to land for investors. But, implementation has been slow and institutional capacity is weak. Tensions exist between government s promotion of FDI and agro-industry, and local rural population unaware of/ not always able to exercise their legal rights. The Act is geared to promoting a development model based on access to land, shared and negotiated between these two groups of stakeholders. If well implemented, this Law should facilitate investors access to land, while the original owners the communities receive some benefit as payment for ceding their rights to the new investors (for the lease period).

17 Importance of mining-driven infrastructure Links between mining-driven transport infrastructure and the colonialist model of infrastructure development intended to extract resources from Africa to drive the economic engines in the home country (Scholvin and Plageman). Mostly, coal-driven economic engines are mostly located in Asia where the bulk of Mozambican coal is exported. Just how beneficial the Moatize to Nacala railroad will be outside of its utility to miners? Associated relocation of communities, farms and businesses leads to dissatisfaction often after the relocation costs have been found to be inadequate post factum. Vale has put efforts into its corporate social responsibility (CSR) programmes and announced by Tete Provincial Finance and Planning Director as having fulfilled its promised CSR obligations. Rail carries passengers /agriculture across Mozambique and Malawi.

18 Multi-sector synergies in FDI possible? Argument for leveraging and linking investment in technology and skill in e.g., mining and agriculture sectors to integrate FDI strategies in the associated sectors for economies of scale and synergies. Challenges highlighted by investors in the agriculture sector, such as: lack of power and transport infrastructure, lack of access to land, inability to access markets, and outdated farming technology. Also, shared land and water use and protections Beyond CSR, focusing on multi-stakeholder participation and skills development, challenges are foreseeably overcome through exploring commonalities, shared experiences and shared resources. (McHenry and Persley) Transport infrastructure is important to bolster socio-economic and spatial development within and between countries. Infrastructure build brings competing dynamics in economic v. complex environmental issues from shared/competing land-use and relocation issues. Calls for detailed evaluation of environmental, social and economic impacts.

19 THANK YOU