Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies. Chapter 6

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1 Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies Chapter 6

2 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life Six major issues: Will developing countries be able to improve levels of living given anticipated population growth? How will developing countries deal with the vast increases in their labor forces? How will higher population growth rates affect poverty?

3 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life Six major issues (cont d): Will developing countries be able to extend the coverage and improve the quality of health care and education in the face of rapid population growth? Is there a relationship between poverty and family size? How does affluence in the developed world affect the ability of developing countries to provide for their people?

4 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth - Past, Present, and Future A brief history of human population growth

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8 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth - Past, Present, and Future A brief history of human population growth Structure of the world s population

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14 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth - Past, Present, and Future A brief history of human population growth Structure of the world s population The hidden momentum of population growth

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17 The Demographic Transition Stage I: high birthrates and death rates Stage II: continued high birthrates, declining death rates Stage III: falling birthrates and death rates, eventually stabilizing

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20 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian Model The Malthusian population trap

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22 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian Model The Malthusian population trap Criticisms of Malthus model

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25 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Household Model The microeconomic household theory of fertility

26 Demand for Children Equation Cd = f ( Y, Pc, Px, tx), x = 1,..., n Where C d is the demand for surviving children Y is the level of household income P c is the net price of children P x is price of all other goods t x is the tastes for goods relative to children

27 Demand for Children Equation Cd = f ( Y, Pc, Px, tx), x = 1,..., n Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect: Y C P Cd d c > 0 < 0 C P d x C t x d > 0 < 0

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29 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Household Model The microeconomic household theory of fertility The demand for children in developing countries Some empirical evidence Implications for development and fertility

30 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Opinions Population growth isn t a real problem

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32 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Opinions Population growth isn t a real problem Overpopulation is a deliberately contrived false issue Population growth is a desirable phenomenon Population growth is a real problem The empirical argument: the negative consequences of population growth

33 Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus Despite the conflicting opinions, there is some common ground

34 Some Policy Approaches What developing countries can do

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36 Some Policy Approaches What developing countries can do What the developed countries can do: resources, population, and the global environment How developed countries can assist developing countries

37 Concepts for Review Birthrate Fertility Death rate Demographic transition Hidden momentum of population growth Infant mortality rate Doubling time Empowerment of women Family-planning programs Life expectancy at birth Malthusian population trap

38 Concepts for Review, cont d Microeconomic theory of fertility Mortality Natural increase Positive checks Preventative checks Rate of population increase Net international migration Population-poverty cycle Population pyramid Reproductive choice Total fertility rate Youth dependency ratio