Inner Brisbane Apartments

Transcription

1 Inner Brisbane Apartments Extract to indicate the general nature of the report Residential Property

2 Contents Inner Brisbane Apartments Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... I 1. INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND TO THE CURRENT INNER BRISBANE APARTMENT SITUATION Economic overview National The Queensland economy Brisbane s residential demand Net overseas migration Net interstate migration Underlying residential demand Detached house vs. other dwellings Brisbane s residential supply Total dwelling approvals High density dwelling approvals Outlook for Brisbane prices Houses Units APARTMENT DEMAND Population growth Demand drivers Students Young Apartment Dwellers (YADs) Empty nesters Underlying demand Purchaser profile Owner occupiers Investor owners SUPPLY OF INNER BRISBANE APARTMENTS Supply pipeline INNER BRISBANE APARTMENT RENTALS Renter profile Vacancy rates Inner Brisbane Apartment rentals Rental bonds held Rental demand and supply Rental forecasts... 53

3 Inner Brisbane Apartments Contents 6. APARTMENT SALES Residential investment Rental yields Negative Gearing & Capital Gains Tax Off the plan prices Interstate and overseas buyers Interstate purchasers Foreign investment Forecast Inner Brisbane Apartment price growth Site sales... 66

4 List of Tables Inner Brisbane Apartments Table I: Table II: List of Tables Share of apartments by precinct and forecast apartment completion, Inner Brisbane Apartment Area... vi Forecast price growth of IBA Area apartments based on median unit price, 1992 to xii Table 2.1: Median house and median unit price forecasts, Greater Brisbane Table 3.1: Population growth, IBA Area vs. Greater Brisbane Table 4.1: Share of apartments by precinct and forecast apartment completion, Inner Brisbane study Area Table 4.2: Apartment completions by IBA precinct Table 5.1: Apartment rental share and occupancy type, Table 5.2: Location of residents five years previous, renters and owner occupiers, 2011, Inner Brisbane study Area Table 5.3: Age composition in private rental apartments, 2011, Inner Brisbane study Area Table 5.4: Inner Brisbane two bedroom weekly median apartment rentals, 1994 to Table 5.6: Inner Brisbane apartment rental market Table 5.7: Forecast median apartment rentals Table 6.1: Inner Brisbane median off the plan apartment prices ($ 000), 1997 to Table 6.2: Number and value ($b) of Australian residential property purchases by temporary residents and overseas people, to Table 6.3: Country of origin, overseas purchasers of Inner Brisbane Apartments, 2013 to Table 6.4: Forecast price growth of IBA Area apartments based on median unit price, 1994 to Table 6.5: Reported selected recent apartment site sales, Inner Brisbane Apartment Area... 67

5 Inner Brisbane Apartments List of Tables Chart I: Chart II: Chart III: Chart IV: List of Charts Projected apartment completions, Inner Brisbane Apartment Area... v Sources of Inner Brisbane Apartment occupier demand... vii Annual change in underlying demand components, IBA Area... ix Underlying rental demand, supply and deficiency, IBA Area, 1999 to x Chart 1.1: Inner Brisbane Apartment Area precincts... 3 Chart 2.1: Key economic indicators, Australia... 8 Chart 2.2: Net migration, Queensland, 1988 to Chart 2.3: Chart 2.4: Underlying residential demand, supply and underlying stock deficiency, Greater Brisbane, 1992 to Stock deficiency/excess, detached house vs. other dwellings, Greater Brisbane, 2011 to Chart 2.5: Total number of dwellings approved, Greater Brisbane, 1992 to Chart 2.6: High density dwelling approvals by Greater Brisbane regions, 2002 to Chart 3.1: Drivers of Inner Brisbane Apartment occupier demand Chart 3.2: International student enrolments, Queensland Chart 3.3: Inner City stand alone office work force, Brisbane, to Chart 3.4: Population growth of the empty nesters, Brisbane Chart 3.5: Annual change in underlying demand components, IBA Area Chart 3.6: Underlying apartment demand by sector vs. total apartment stock, IBA Area Chart 3.7: Population tenure by age group, owner occupiers vs. total residents, IBA study Area, 2011 Census Chart 3.8: Mix of incremental stock of apartments 1, Inner Brisbane Apartment Area Chart 4.1: Projected apartment completions, Inner Brisbane Apartment Area Chart 4.2: Apartment in proposed projects, IBA Area precincts, April Chart 5.1: Vacancy rates, Brisbane regions, 2003 to Chart 5.2: Two bedroom weighted median apartment rentals, Inner Brisbane study Area, 1994 to Chart 5.3: Change in number of rental bonds held, Inner Brisbane study Area, 1996 to Chart 5.4: Underlying rental demand, supply and deficiency, IBA Area, 1999 to Chart 6.1: Value of residential loans attributable to investment property, Queensland, moving annual totals (current and 2015 dollars) Chart 6.2: Indicative rental returns IBA Area & Metropolitan Brisbane units, 1997 to Chart 6.3: Indicative rental returns IBA Area by number of bedrooms, 1994 to Chart 6.4: Indicative rental yields by IBA Area precinct Chart 6.5: Off the plan Inner Brisbane Apartment prices, 1992 to Chart 6.6: Share of IBA Area first time apartment sales by state to interstate purchasers, 2008 to Chart 6.7: Rental yields vs interest rates, IBA Area, 1994 to

6 Introduction Inner Brisbane Apartments INTRODUCTION Inner Brisbane Apartments 2016 to 2023 examines the principal drivers of demand for inner city dwellings. The study then forecasts future demand, supply, prices, and rentals in the market to June The study covers apartment building, stock, and market activity in the following Inner Brisbane Areas (Chart 1.1): The CBD and adjoining Spring Hill Area; The Inner East precinct includes the primarily waterfront locations of East Brisbane, Kangaroo Point and New Farm, directly across the Brisbane River; The Inner North precinct, which includes the Urban Renewal Areas covering Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Herston, Kelvin Grove, Newstead, and Teneriffe; The South Brisbane, West End, and Highgate Hill Area surrounded by the Brisbane River; The Toowong precinct, containing Auchenflower, Milton, St Lucia, Taringa and Toowong; Woolloongabba and Dutton Park, bounded by Brisbane River and Norman Creek, south of the Inner East precinct; and The Hamilton precinct, encompassing the entire Northshore Hamilton urban renewal Area. Chart 1.1: Inner Brisbane Apartment Area precincts 3

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