The Graduate Labour Market in Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects

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1 The Graduate Labour Market in 2016 Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects

2 A more favourable graduate jobs market

3 Last year s graduates after six months Unemployed, 6.3% Other, 4.9% Studying, 12.1% Working and studying, 5.5% In work, 71.2% ata comes from HESA Destination of Leavers of Higher Education 2013/14

4 What do graduates do? 353,725 first degrees awarded to UK domiciled graduates last year. The majority were working after six months 76.7% Unemployment was at 6.3% - a level usually associated with non-recessionary graduate labour markets. 57% of UK-domiciled graduates were women, 90% studied full time, 78% were no older than 24 on graduation, and 19.5% were from a minority ethnic background.

5 Where are we now? Broadly positive employment outlook in 2016 But uncertainty about Euro referendum And continuing weakness in exports and manufacturing Skills shortage and recruitment difficulties set to increase And keep an eye on wages The ongoing urbanisation of graduate work

6 Broadly positive employment outlook in 2016

7 Business is reasonably confident

8 and expects to increase staffing Hiring intentions continue to improve But manufacturing more cautious Data from Bank Of England Agent s Summary Jan 201

9 Broadly positive employment outlook in 2016 Growth to continue, but likely to slow down Global forecasts being downgraded, not necessarily the UK Concerns over effect of EU vote Manufacturing outlook significantly less positive than services

10 Skills shortage and recruitment difficulties

11 Recruitment difficulties are widespread

12 And so are skills shortage vacancies

13 Wages Inflation is keeping a lid on wages ONS data suggests wage pressure for many professional qualifications is increasing. Skills shortages are also driving wage increases New cohort of graduates the first to pay 9,000 for full three years. May have effect on salary expectations

14 Graduate supply We expect to see fewer graduates this year as last year was boosted by take-up of HE to beat new fees Early data suggests 5% fall Predicted falls in most subject areas, especially Architecture and building Social sciences Business studies + marketing Creative arts and design

15 Graduate supply How many graduates are there (roughly)? Engineers, of all kinds about 11,150 IT and computing about 10,100 Business and management about 15,000 Design about 11,300 Accountancy and finance about 6,000 Marketing about 3,400 Building and architecture about 5,600 Languages about 4,450 All STEM about 71,000 Social sciences about 59,000 Arts and humanities about 62,000

16 Projected graduate number change in Creative arts & design Historical & philosophical studies Languages Mass communications & documentation Business & administrative studies -595 Law Social studies Architecture, building & planning -435 Engineering & technology -485 Computer science -295 Mathematical sciences -530 Physical sciences -250 Agriculture & related subjects Veterinary science Biological sciences Subjects allied to medicine Medicine & dentistry

17 Recruitment difficulties Set to become more significant in 2016 Already constraining growth in some sectors (eg construction) More shortages emerging More applicants will reject offers Fewer graduates predicted in 2016

18 Urbanisation of graduate employment

19 50000 Location of new graduate employment 2013/ NE NW Yorks & Humbe r E Mids W Mids East London SE SW Wales Scotlan d N. Ireland Graduates Prof jobs Other UK Other EU Non- EU

20 Number of graduate jobs taken by 2013/14 graduates Around the country most popular locations of employment outside London for 2014 graduates

21 Outside London Over 40% of the working population in Newcastle, Manchester, York, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol, Bath, Oxford, Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh Glasgow Cambridge Had a degree or equivalent at the end of 2014

22 Outside London By the end of 2015 Liverpool, Nottingham, Leicester, Birmingham, Coventry, Norwich, Ipswich Southampton Could also have joined the list

23 Data from Cities Outlook 2016 from The Centre for Cities

24 Urbanisation of graduate employment Graduate employment growth in all parts of the country Smaller urban and rural areas will have some roles and are expanding but could be hit by continuing public sector job losses. Graduate jobs market in urban areas (including London) growing more quickly and has wider range of options This trend set to continue as cities become more graduate Also drives local competition for graduates But cost of living becoming increasing factor

25 In summary The graduate jobs market improved significantly last year We should see more improvement, but the rate of improvement may be slowing May be fewer graduates this year Recruitment and retention issues are set to intensify Large urban areas are the growing graduate hotspots Many cities approaching 50% graduate workforce

26 Questions?

27 Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence highpeakdata.wordpress.com hecsu.blogspot.com

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