NATS climate change adaptation work

Transcription

1 NATS climate change adaptation work Dr Jarlath Molloy CPhys Environmental Affairs Manager

2 Contents 1. About NATS 2. Acting Responsibly programme 3. National context 4. Resilience planning 5. Key risks 6. Next steps 2

3 1 About NATS 3

4 1 About NATS What do we do? Deliver Air traffic services and solutions 2.2m Flights handled in FY 2014/15 24/7 Hours a day, 365 days a year 4

5 1 About NATS Flight information regions London & Scottish FIRs: 1m KM 2 11% of Europe s airspace and 25% of traffic Shanwick 2.2m KM 2 80% of North Atlantic traffic

6 1 About NATS En-route locations Prestwick Centre Handles on average 2,500 flights/day Scottish Oceanic Control Centre Scottish Area Control Centre Manchester Area Control Centre Swanwick Centre Handles on average 5,500 flights/day London Area Control Centre London Terminal Control Centre London Military Air Traffic Control Head Office Corporate & Technical Centre - College and Training centre - Engineering - AQUILA - Support functions

7 1 About NATS Airports with NATS ATC involvement ABERDEEN Operated by NATS Under Transition Operated by FerroNATS Operated by AQUILA GLASGOW EDINBURGH VIGO A CORUÑA SABADELL BELFAST MANCHESTER MADRID CUATRO VIENTOS SERVILLE JEREZ GIBRALTAR VALENCIA ALICANTE IBIZA CARDIFF LUTON STANSTED LONDON CITY HEATHROW BRISTOL GATWICK FARNBOROUGH SOUTHAMPTON

8 1 About NATS Our people Air Traffic Controllers Air Traffic Service Engineers Specialist & Business Assistants Support Professionals

9 2 Acting Responsibly programme First ANSP to set environmental targets 9

10 2 Acting Responsibly Airspace Estate Community 10 NATS Acting Responsibly programme

11 2 Acting Responsibly programme Developed innovative tools: 3Di airspace inefficiency metric Flosys flight efficiency tool 11

12 3 National Context Regulatory environment 12

13 3 National Context National Risk Register Provides assessment of the likelihood and potential impact of civil emergency risks - Volcanic hazards; Severe space weather; Terrorism; Flooding; Severe weather. 13

14 3 National Context Climate Change Act Gives Secretary of State Adaptation Reporting Power; Encourages and influences key organisations adaptation actions; The CAA, nine UK airports and NATS reported to DEFRA in

15 3 National Context Others Department for Transport (2014) Transport resilience review A review of the resilience of the transport network to extreme weather events; UK Committee on Climate Change (2014) Managing climate risks to well-being and the economy. 15

16 4 Resilience Planning NATS adaptation work 16

17 4 Resilience Planning NATS commissioned research: Climate change: Impact on NATS (2009); The impact of climate change on UK traffic patterns (2010); Climate change adaptation report (2011). 17

18 4 Resilience Planning Climate change: Impact on NATS Risks: weather patterns, impact on NATS business & operations; Mitigation: business activity, adaptation & resilience planning, regulatory issues. 18

19 4 Resilience Planning The impact of climate change on UK traffic patterns Direct & indirect implications on business, operations and Jet Stream; Adaptation recommendations. 19

20 4 Resilience Planning Climate change adaptation report (1/3) Business response to climate change; Asset management; Adapted risk management system identify, register, develop contingency and review. 20

21 4 Resilience Planning Climate change adaptation report (2/3) Severity of impact on customers, finances, reputation; Matrix developed; Material risks prioritised; 21

22 4 Resilience Planning Climate change adaptation report (3/3) Barriers to implementing adaptation programme financial and physical; Interdependencies regulation, key suppliers and key stakeholders. 22

23 5 Key risks Direct and indirect impacts 23

24 5 Key risks Direct impacts - climate change is expected to affect variables that are important for aircraft routing: North Atlantic jet streams (mid latitude & sub-tropical)*; Severe convection & thunderstorm activity. 24

25 5 Key risks Direct impacts - airport operations could be affected by changes to: Frequency & track of mid-latitude cyclones; Prevailing wind patterns; Fog / freezing fog; Ice, sleet and snow*; Precipitation & flooding; Seasonal temperate variation; Seal level rise. 25

26 5 Key risks Indirect impacts: Change in choice of travel destination; Change in food production; Variation in seasonal traffic flow; Public perception of air travel*; Regulatory changes*; Revenue implications for NATS. 26

27 5 Key risks The risk from climate change is that the frequency and severity of these occurrences increases significantly. 27

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31 5 Key risks Adaptation actions: Review operating specifications for systems; Review asset management risk policy; Engage regulators on charges model; Staff awareness raising and capacity building; Evolve business model. 31

32 6 Next steps Opportunities to engage 32

33 6 Next steps Identify gaps and coordinate future work, including: Improved metrological info; Frequency of scenario review; Common ANSP / aviation planning criteria for scenario adaptation; Short-term disruption coordination; Sharing best practice. 33

34 7 Summary 34

35 7 Summary NATS ATM CO 2 target & Acting Responsibly programme National planning context Resilience planning activities Key direct & indirect risks Next steps 35

36 Questions? For more information see 36