Changes and Continuities in the Process of Family Formation in Mexico. The Role of Union Type on Childbearing Patterns

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1 Changes and Continuities in the Process of Family Formation in Mexico. The Role of Union Type on Childbearing Patterns Adriana López-Ramírez, University of Arkansas at Little Rock Gabriela Sánchez-Soto, The University of Texas at San Antonio Extended abstract submitted for the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America Abstract Recently, Mexico has experienced a sharp increase in the proportion of consensual unions. Compared to marriages, consensual unions tend to start earlier, be more unstable, and prevail among less educated women. The recent increase of cohabitations across all educational groups suggests that a new form of cohabitation has emerged, and now coexists with an old cohabitation. In spite of their relative instability, some authors suggest that cohabiting unions are as fertile as marriages, and after five years of union, there is no difference in the number of children born. This paper examines the process of childbearing in this changing demographic scenario using data from the 2002 Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS-1). We examine childbearing levels and trends using parity progression schedules. We use Kaplan-Meier lifetable procedures to estimate parity-specific survival probability functions, and Poisson regression models to estimate the determinants of the number of children born. 1

2 Extended abstract The coexistence of formal marriages and consensual unions has long been a distinctive feature of nuptiality patterns in Latin America. Mexico has experienced a sharp increase in the proportion of consensual unions, and even though most couples eventually legalize their union, the probability that unions remain consensual has increased. The fact that women in disadvantaged groups have a lower probability of ending their consensual union either by legalization or separation, suggests that consensual unions act as surrogate marriages in some social groups. In general, consensual unions tend to start earlier than marriages, are more unstable, and prevail among women with low educational levels. In the last decade, the increase of consensual unions across all educational groups suggests that a new form of consensual union has emerged, and now coexists with an old cohabitation. For instance, cohabitations represented a 23% of all the unions from the cohort and 28% for the cohorts, while this type of union represented a 37% of the unions among those born between 1980 and 1984 (Solis and Ferraris, 2012). Besides this increase in overall prevalence, there is a higher prevalence of cohabitation across SES and educational groups in the younger groups. In addition, among these younger cohorts, a higher proportion of consensual unions are short lasting, in clear contrast to previous patterns where long lasting cohabitations functioned as surrogate marriages. In addition to the changes in union formation patterns, Mexico has also seen an important decrease in fertility rates. The country went from a total fertility rate of 6.7 children per woman in 1970 to a TFR of 2.2 children per woman in 2013 (CONAPO 2015). Additionally, this fertility transition occurred without a significant postponement of the timing of the first union and the first birth. From the 1970s to the late 1980s, the median age at first birth remained stable at 21 years (Mier y Terán and Partida 2001), while in 2006 it was 23 years old. Previous research has also found a small interval between the start of the first union and the first birth (Muñoz Franco 2006). In spite of their relative instability compared to marriages, and that cohabiting unions start slightly earlier in life (Solís 2013) and women in these unions have their first child at a younger age than married women (Quilodrán 2011), some authors suggest that in terms of fertility behavior, cohabiting unions may be as fertile as marriages, and after five years of union, there is no difference in the number of children born. However, we do not know much about the characteristics that determine levels of childbearing by different union type and there is still a need to compare the childbearing patterns across cohorts. This paper aims to fulfill some of these gaps by answering the following research questions; are levels and trends of childbearing similar among married and cohabiting Mexican couples? Are the determinants of childbearing similar between marital and cohabiting couples? This paper examines the process of childbearing in this changing demographic scenario using data from the first wave of the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), conducted in This broad-purpose multi-topic, nationally representative survey of individuals, households, and communities, provides life history data on union formation, childbearing, and contraception for men and women (Rubalcava and Teruel 2006). We examine childbearing levels and trends among Mexican couples using parity progression schedules. Using Kaplan-Meier life-table procedures, we estimate parity-specific survival probability functions by marital status (married and cohabiting couples) and cohort (three cohorts based on women s ages). With information from women s birth histories, we construct birth intervals and estimate the following Poisson regression model: 2

3 C i = exp [αe ic + β 0c + j β j X ic ] β 0c = β 00 + m β j V c where C i is the expected number of births for woman i; E i is exposure time defined as the number of years in a marital union; X ic are individual covariates; and α, β 00, β j, and β m are coefficients. Our model controls for characteristics such as, female educational attainment, partner s educational attainment, age at union, union duration, and age cohort (15-29, 30-39, 40+). Our preliminary analysis shows that: For the most part there are no significant differences between married and cohabiting women across educational categories Married men are slightly more educated than cohabiting men Married women were younger at the start of their union than cohabiting women Married women had 2.6 children on average, while cohabiting women had 1.8 births on average. Marriages have longer durations than cohabiting unions (13.6 years vs. 9.7 years, respectively) Kaplan-Meier estimates show that couples have their first child soon after forming a union. By year five, three quarters of the couples in our sample had a first birth. This first birth interval was fairly stable for all cohorts. These findings are in line with previous studies showing a fairly stable first birth interval since the 1950s, with a median of around 14.0 months (Mier y Terán 1998). Our estimates also show slightly faster transitions for cohabiting couples, although differences are not statistically significant. With regard to the second birth, our estimates show that married and cohabiting unions have a slower transition but their patterns are very similar. Multivariate results suggest that male education has a significant effect on number of children only among married couples, while female education is influential for both married and cohabiting couples. Once we account for union duration, older cohorts are more likely to have a greater number of children. 3

4 Tables and Figures Figure 1. Survival Probability Function, First Birth by Cohort and Union Type Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for first birth analysis time unmarried married unmarried married unmarried 40+ married 40+ Table 1. Poisson Regression Models to Estimate the Total Number of Children, by Union Type Married Cohabiting β β Husband s education (ref: <6 yrs) 6-8 years years years Wife s education (ref: <6 yrs) 6-8 years years years Wife s birth cohort (ref: ) Age at first union (ref: <=17) and above Union duration (years) Constant Significant coefficients in bold. 4

5 Table 2. Interactions Coefficients between Union Duration and Cohort from Poisson Regression Models Married Cohabiting β β Wife s birth cohort (ref: ) Union duration (years) Union duration*cohort Union duration*cohort Constant Significant coefficients in bold Bibliographical references Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) Proyecciones de la Población Consulta en línea. Mier y Terán, M Formación de las descendencias y los determinantes próximos de la fecundidad. Generaciones femeninas en dos regiones de México. In La población de México al final del siglo XX. Cuernavaca: Sociedad Mexicana de Demografía. Pp Mier y Terán, M., and V. Partida Niveles, tendencias y diferenciales de la fecundidad en México, In La Población de México. Tendencias y Perspectivas Sociodemográficas Hacia el Siglo XXI. J. Gómez de León & C. Rabell (Eds). Mexico City: Consejo Nacional de Población & Fondo de Cultura Económica. Pp Muñoz-Franco, E Women s Education, First Sex, and Family Formation in Mexico: 30 years of stability and change. Ph.D. dissertation. Department of Sociology, Brown University. Quilodrán, J Atisbos de cambios en la formación de las parejas conyugales a fines del milenio. In Parejas Conyugales en Transformación: Una Visión al Final del Siglo XX. J. Quilodrán (Coord). Mexico City: El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales. Pp Rubalcava, L., and G. Teruel Users Guide for the Mexican Family Life Survey First Wave, 5