The 2014 National Freight Demand Study Some Key Findings for Waikato

Transcription

1 The 2014 National Freight Demand Study Some Key Findings for Waikato Presentation to Waikato Regional Transport Committee November 2014 Richard Paling Richard Paling Consulting 1 It should be noted that the views expressed in this presentation represent those of Richard Paling Consulting and are not those of the Ministry of Transport Richard Paling Consulting 2 1

2 Freight in New Zealand Freight plays a vital part in a modern economy Efficient movement of goods:- Supports the movement of exports Supports quality of life of New Zealanders Volumes potentially large 50 tonnes per resident per year Richard Paling Consulting 3 Freight in New Zealand - 2 But also adverse impacts Fuel consumption and pollution Freight consumes about per cent of energy used in transport sector Different methods of freight consume different levels of energy and have different emission levels Movement of freight impacts on communities Noise Severance Perceived safety issues Richard Paling Consulting 4 2

3 Freight in New Zealand - 3 Planning for freight important What infrastructure and services are required What opportunities exist Need an understanding of the current patterns of freight flows the ways these may develop over the future Richard Paling Consulting 5 The Current Study Changes in patterns of transport Need for update of earlier study Commissioned by MoT and available on:- Built on earlier work Hybrid approach pulling data together from a range of sources Wider range of commodities examined Also considered movements associated with exports and imports Richard Paling Consulting 6 3

4 The Position in 2012 Richard Paling Consulting 7 The National Position in 2012 : Modal Shares Tonnes Tonne kms Dominance of road transport particularly in terms of tonnages Less so for tonne-kms because of longer movements by rail and coastal shipping Richard Paling Consulting 8 4

5 The National Position in 2012 : Shares by Commodity Waste 1% General Freight 8% Milk & Dairy 9% Tonnes General Freight 19% Milk & Dairy 11% Manuf'd & retail goods 30% B mats fert & other minerals 9% Tonne-kms Petroleum & Coal 15% Logs & Timber Products 18% Livestock Meat & Wool 6% Other Ag & Fish 4% Waste 3% Manuf'd & retail goods 18% Tonne-kms Tonnes B mats fert & other minerals 19% 19% Logs & Timber Products 16% Livestock Meat & Wool 4% Other Ag & Fish 4% Petroleum & Coal 6% Richard Paling Consulting 9 The NZ Position in 2012 : Comparison with Total freight volumes similar Little overall growth Change in mix Growth in agricultural commodities for export Logs and dairy Falls or stable position for goods linked to domestic demand Building materials Retail & manufactured goods Million tonnes % 42% 108% -2% -33% -21% -21% 10% Changes in Flows of Selected Key Commodities NZ to 2012 (million tonnes) -22% Richard Paling Consulting 10 5

6 The Position in 2012 : International Traffic Assessment of international traffic in total freight flows Export related flows about 30 per cent of all movements Imports harder to define since supply chains more complex International trade at least a third of all freight movements Tonnes Richard Paling Consulting 11 Total Traffic Impacting on Waikato Internal freight traffic within region Freight traffic to or from Waikato Through freight traffic Through, 14.4, 28% To/from, 13.5, 26% Internal, 23.8, 46% Total Freight Flows Impacting on Waikato (m tonnes, per cent of total) Richard Paling Consulting 12 6

7 2012 : Freight to/from or within Waikato Dominance of basic products especially milk and dairy and building materials Waste, 1.0 Manufactured and Retail Goods, 3.2 General Freight, 5.8 Milk and Dairy, 7.5 Logs and Timber Products, 5.5 High shares in relation to national totals Building materials fertiliser and minerals, 8.1 Coal and Petroleum, 2.3 Other Agriculture, 1.3 Meat and Livestock, 2.5 Million tonnes Richard Paling Consulting 13 Patterns of Movement in 2012 Freight traffic impacting on Waikato about 22 per cent of national total Dominated by internal movements which represent almost half of total Importance of movements with other Upper North Island regions about one quarter of total Longer distance flows with areas outside UNI small at about 3 per cent of total Through flows substantial at just over a quarter of total Reflects role of Waikato as freight crossroads North-South movements particularly to or from Auckland Movements to or from Bay of Plenty Total Freight in 2012 (m Per cent tonnes) of total Northland 0.2 0% Auckland % Within Waikato % Bay of Plenty 4.9 9% Other NI 1.3 3% South Island 0.2 0% Through % % Richard Paling Consulting 14 7

8 Waikato as Freight Crossroads Bay of Plenty to north 5.2 m tonnes Bay of Plenty to south 2.5 m tonnes Auckland/Northland to South 6.7 m tonnes Richard Paling Consulting 15 The Position in 2012 Waikato Shares of UNI and National Production Waikato milk & dairy products and livestock & meat Almost two thirds of UNI totals About per cent of NZ Logs & timber about 25 per cent of UNI and 15 per cent of national Aggregates more than 30 per cent of UNI and 17 per cent of national These commodities almost 70 per cent of Waikato total Compares with 50 per cent nationally 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Waikato Share of UNI Waikato Share of NZ Richard Paling Consulting 16 8

9 The Position in Modal Shares on Key Corridors 25 1% Road Rail 20 Million tonnes % 33% 20% 23% 5 0% 8% 41% 0 Richard Paling Consulting 17 Changes in Production from While overall volumes broadly similar, changes in individual commodities Increases in milk and dairy Reductions in coal and building materials Some reduction in logs and timber Against national trend Total Production (m tonnes) Richard Paling Consulting 18 9

10 Forecast Growth to 2042 Richard Paling Consulting 19 Growth to 2042 : General Approach Individual forecasts produced for each commodity examined Take into account constraints on agricultural production and supply as well as potential demands Nationally overall growth in tonnage forecast to be just under 60 per cent over 30 years Richard Paling Consulting 20 10

11 400 Growth to 2042 : Commodities m tonnes Milk and Dairy Livestock Meat and Wool Petroleum and Coal Manufactured and retail goods Waste Logs and Timber Products Other agriculture and fish Building materials fertiliser and other minerals Steel and aluminium General Freight Richard Paling Consulting 21 Growth to 2042 : Regional Patterns Million tonnes Destination Freight Movements 2012 and 2042 Auckland Canterbury Waikato Bay of Plenty Northland Southland Manawatu Hawke s Bay Otago Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough Wellington Taranaki West Coast Gisborne Origin Auckland and Canterbury are key regions for freight Richard Paling Consulting 22 11

12 Growth to 2042 : The Total Position Putting future forecasts in context of estimated historical growth Effects of agricultural constraints (logs, dairy) Effects of winding down of Christchurch rebuild Bn tonne-kms Actual & Predicted Growth in Total Freight Traffic Richard Paling Consulting 23 Growth to 2042 : Waikato Commodities Total growth of traffic to/from Waikato about 52 per cent Main growth internal traffic moving within Region and flows with Auckland Some growth to Bay of Plenty Main commodity growth in building materials Growth in milk and dairy and logs and timber. Through traffic forecast to increase by about 45 per cent Total Freight Flows (m tonnes) Total Freight Flows (m tonnes) Richard Paling Consulting 24 12

13 Contributions to Growth in Waikato Total growth of about 52 per cent Large part of this made up of aggregates and building materials Also growth in agricultural products Waste, 0.7 Manufactured and Retail Goods, 0.8 Aggregates and Building materials, 8.3 General Freight, 3.0 Milk and Dairy, 2.1 Logs and Timber Products, 2.2 Meat and Livestock, 0.6 Other Agriculture, 0.6 Coal and Petroleum, 0.9 Growth in Waikato Flows (m tonnes) Richard Paling Consulting 25 Growth to 2042 : The Position for Waikato Key elements of growth Aggregates and building materials Agricultural products especially milk and dairy and logs and timber Movements of through traffic Need for freight network to provide the links between these locations. Richard Paling Consulting 26 13

14 Estimated throughput through Port of Tauranga Exports -Waikato products about 2.3 m tonnes or 21 per cent of Tauranga exports Imports Products for Waikato about 0.8 m tonnes or 22 per cent of Tauranga imports Decline in volumes and shares from reflecting Reduction in logs harvest and changes in use with smaller share of export logs Cessation of coal imports for Huntly But partly balanced by growth in dairy exports and imports of animal feed. Richard Paling Consulting 27 Conclusions Freight movements in Waikato dominated by road traffic but rail also important High proportion of basic commodities for which the cost of freight is important Waikato important generator and attractor of freight but also provides through routes between Auckland and south and into and out of Bay of Plenty 50 per cent growth to 2042 mainly driven by growth in milk and dairy and building materials Movements through Port of Tauranga important but share falling with changes in logging and cessation of coal traffic Richard Paling Consulting 28 14

15 Questions Thank you Richard Paling Consulting 29 15