A Global High Shi- Scenario: Impacts and Poten:al for More Public Transport, Walking, and Cycling With Lower Car Use

Transcription

1 November 2014 Presented at Sierra Club and Coalition for Smarter Growth Washington, DC A Global High Shi- Scenario: Impacts and Poten:al for More Public Transport, Walking, and Cycling With Lower Car Use Presented by Michael Replogle ITDP

2 New York Times

3 Global CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuel Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres (2010). Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi /CDIAC/00001_V2010.

4 Source: The Cost and Efficiency of Reducing Transport GHG Emissions Preliminary Findings OECD/ITF

5 Transport CO2 Emissions By Country Growth Rates Source: The Cost and Efficiency of Reducing Transport GHG Emissions Preliminary Findings OECD/ITF

6 Global CO2 Emissions By Country (2008) National CO 2 Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring:

7 US 2012 GHG Emissions by Sector US Well-to-Wheel Emissions Share in 2002 was 43% Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:

8 Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: US GHG Emissions From Transportation

9 Stockholm Sustainable transport paradigm: AVOID SHIFT- IMPROVE Avoid unnecessary or low value travel with smart pricing, development, logistics, supply chains, communications Singapore Bogota Singapore

10 Sustainable transport paradigm: AVOID SHIFT- IMPROVE Shift travel to more efficient modes Stockholm Singapore Bogota Singapore

11 Sustainable transport paradigm: AVOID SHIFT- IMPROVE Improve efficiency by favoring more efficient, lighter, smaller, slower vehicles and lower carbon fuels Singapore Bogota Singapore

12 Stockholm Sustainable transport paradigm: AVOID SHIFT- IMPROVE Improve efficiency by operating transport networks with optimal speed & flow for remaining traffic Guangzhou Source: M. Barth and K. Boriboonsomsin Real-World CO 2 Impacts of Traffic Congestion. Transportation Research Record. Volume 2058 Stockholm Singapore

13 Global Roadmap to Reducing Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions ICCT 2012: ICCT%20Roadmap%20Energy%20Report.pdf

14 Vehicle use is function not just of income, H 2 but policy and investment NextSTEPS Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways Source: Rand Corporation The Future of Driving in Developing Countries

15 Portland, Oregon: A US Turnaround Story Before After

16 Portland made the land use-transport policy connection

17 Portland, Oregon area residents drive less

18 Portland residents bike more

19 Portland residents use public transport more

20 Portland residents emit fewer greenhouse gases

21 High Shift Study Inspiration: Rio+20 Voluntary Commitments 8 MDBs: $175b for more sustainable transport UITP: double public transport mode share by 2025 ITDP: promote BRT and TOD Standards, national transport policy best practice, and evaluate impacts of 17 Rio+20 sustainable transport commitments

22 Global High Shift Scenario Study Analysis led by UC Davis, in cooperation with International Energy Agency (IEA) and supported by ITDP, with assistance of International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) Funded by Ford Foundation, ClimateWorks, Hewlett Foundations Project advisory committee includes World Bank, InterAmerican Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, ICCT, EMBARQ, IEA, and others Findings of Phase I summary report presented now Documentation report forthcoming October 2014

23 Analysis Approach Global travel projected to 2050 using and urban model adapted from the International Energy Agency s Mobility Model World modeled at level of 33 countries/regions Detailed reporting for 13 groupings More detailed analysis of travel modes than MoMo Modal shift based on potential to boost capacity of transit/nmt systems to allow fewer cars

24 Evaluation Framework for Addressing Transport CO2 Emissions Source: The Cost and Efficiency of Reducing Transport GHG Emissions Preliminary Findings OECD/ITF

25 Comparison of Two Scenarios High Shift Scenario: Projection of cities by size through 2050 Increased rapid transit km per million population Encourage walking and cycling for short trips E-bikes expand in lieu of motor cycles and some cars Preserve total projected growth in personal mobility in low and middle income (non-oecd) countries to 2050 Cut car travel in cities by half by 2050 from Base Case Base Case aligns with the IEA 4 degree scenario (4DS) Some fuel economy improvement No shift away from car growth Other modes static or slow growth

26 Rapid Transit per Resident (RTR) to 2050 : combined length of transit systems per capita to DS High Shift OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd Metro BRT Tram/LRT Commuter rail

27 Combined length of transit systems to DS High Shift OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd OECD non-oecd Metro 6,336 4,883 6,970 6,103 7,604 7,324 9,078 18,922 11,820 32,962 BRT 574 1, ,820 1,149 5,729 4,740 35,781 8,905 69,652 Tram/LRT 10,221 7,983 11,243 9,979 12,266 11,975 13,516 15,896 16,810 23,809 Commuter rail 28,915 4,967 31,806 6,209 34,698 7,450 43,478 40,488 58,040 76,009

28 Rapid Transit to Resident Ratio 2010 vs. 2050

29 The Base and High Shift Scenario Doubling of public transport and NMT urban travel and about a halving of LDV travel in 2050 v. Baseline 8

30 High Shift Scenario travel per capita Total travel in non-oecd preserved, travel reduced some in OECD 9

31 High Shift Scenario travel per capita Total travel in non-oecd preserved, travel reduced some in OECD

32 High Shift Scenario travel per capita Total travel in non-oecd preserved, travel reduced some in OECD

33 High Shift Scenario: Bus, Rail, Bike, E-Bike, Walk Travel Total Passenger Kilometers Travel (PKT) for bus, rail, walk, bike, and e-bike by year and scenario 8

34 Bus Passenger Km of Travel Per Capita By Mode, Region, Year!

35 Rail Passenger Km of Travel Per Capita By Mode, Region, Year

36 Non-motorized Km Travel Per Capita By Mode, Region, Scenario

37 Estimating Direct Cost of Scenarios Vehicle purchase costs (all modes) System infrastructure costs (road, rail) Vehicle and system operating costs Fuel costs (liquid fuel, electricity) Urban Car Stock by Scenario, Year, Region Note: there are an added 500 million non- urban cars in 2050, so total global car stock is 1.6b in High ShiD vs. 2.3b in 2050 Baseline, a 30% reduchon 37% fewer urban cars needed in High Shift: 1.1 billion vs. 1.8 billion in baseline 2

38 Vehicle purchase costs across all modes costs in specific year Car purchase costs dominate, drop substantially in High Shift 7

39 Vehicle purchase costs across all modes zoom-in without cars 2 wheeler and urban bus costs dominate though BRT/ Rail car costs rise in HS case toward

40 Vehicle and system/infrastructure O&M costs across all modes Car/Road costs dominate, followed by urban bus 9

41 Infrastructure investment costs across all modes Road/parking costs dominate, followed by metros and side walks (foot paths)

42 Public and Private Direct Costs High Shift Scenario lowers total costs in all categories Vehicle purchase costs (all modes) System infrastructure costs (road, rail) Vehicle and system operating costs Fuel costs (liquid fuel, electricity) Cumula7ve Savings of $114 trillion

43 Distribution of Car Ownership by Income Car ownership is lower for all income groups under High Shift, but becomes slightly more equitably distributed than under BAU 3

44 Impacts on Equity of Access to Mobility Under High Shift Scenario vs. Business-As-Usual: Public transport mobility of poorest 20% triples Public transport mobility of 2 nd poorest 20% doubles 3

45 Impact on urban passenger transport CO2 emissions Compared to baseline scenario for 2050, High Shift scenario would also cut global warming pollution Cut annual CO2 emissions 1.7 GT (40%) Cut cumulative CO2 emissions 25 GT (25%) 3

46 Impact on urban passenger transport CO2 emissions Opportunities for CO2 reduction in both rich and poor countries, benefits ramping up especially in

47 Impact on urban passenger transport CO2 emissions per capita CO2 per capita from urban passenger transport converges to tons in 2050 High Shift

48 Impact of Scenarios & Emission Standards on Urban On Road Primary PM2.5 Emissions

49 Impact of Scenarios & Emission Standards on Air Pollution Mortality Related to Urban On Road PM2.5

50 In Summary More investment in clean urban public transport, walking, and cycling between now and 2050 could: Cut cumulative public and private urban transportation costs by $114 trillion, with biggest savings in non-oecd Boost public transport mobility of poorest 20% by 300% Cut annual CO2 emissions from urban passenger transport by 1.7 GT in 2050, a 40% drop Cut cumulative CO2 emissions from urban passenger transport by 25 GT , a 25% drop Yield growing cost savings and CO2 savings over time Develop only if there is increased private sector and government support & investment in public transport

51 What s This Mean for Washington, DC Region? WashCOG and its members should Evaluate more rich policy & investment scenarios Developed tools to appraise impacts on infrastructure, operating, maintenance costs, health, access by income,

52 Together we can make a better world Thank you for your attention! Michael Replogle Managing Director for Policy and Founder