A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND. Minutes

Transcription

1 September 216 September Summary According to recent data, s economy continued to improve as labor markets strengthened, household conditions improved, and housing market indicators were positive. Labor Markets: Payroll employment in rose.3 percent in July as employers added 12, jobs in the month. The government sector added the most positions (,2 jobs) for the second straight month, followed by the professional and business services (3,3 jobs) and the financial services industry, which added 2,6 jobs. On the downside, four industries contracted in July. The manufacturing industry shed the most jobs (1,7 jobs) followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities industry that cut 1, jobs. Smaller losses were reported in the information and leisure and hospitality industries. On a year-overyear basis, total employment in grew percent as jobs were added in every industry except manufacturing and information. The professional and services industry expanded. percent since July 21 as firms added 2,6 jobs for the largest growth in both percentage and absolute terms. The construction industry posted the second largest growth of. percent; however, the industry is one of the smallest in the state, so the growth resulted in, jobs. Household Conditions: s unemployment rate declined.2 percentage point to.7 percent in July and declined 1. percentage point since July 21. In the second quarter of 216, the share of mortgages with payments 9 or more days past due was virtually unchanged at 1. percent. The prime delinquency rate edged down to.7 percent in the quarter while the subprime rate declined.1 percentage point to 6.7 percent. In the first quarter of 216, real personal income in rose.9 percent and was 3.9 percent higher than in the first quarter of 21. Housing Markets: issued,922 new residential permits in July, up 13.7 percent from the prior month and up 19.9 percent from July 21. The most permits were issued in the Charlotte MSA (2,37 permits), which was a 7.2 percent increase in the month and 62. percent more than were issued last July. housing starts totaled 76, in July, up 3.9 percent from June and up.6 percent on a year-over-year basis. According to CoreLogic Information Solutions, home values in appreciated. percent in June and.9 percent since June 21. House prices grew in June in every MSA except Durham and Winston-Salem; on a year-over-year basis, every MSA except Fayetteville and Greenville reported house price growth. A Closer Look at Commuting According to the Census Bureau's 21 American Community Survey -year estimates: In, 1.1 percent of workers took public transportation to work. Of those 31.6 percent did not have a vehicle available, 3.9 percent owned their home, and 6.9 percent were at or above 1 percent of the poverty level. In, 1.2 percent of workers carpooled to work. Of those 6.9 percent did not have a vehicle available, 7. percent owned their home, and 73. percent were at or above 1 percent of the poverty level. In, 1.2 percent of workers drove alone to work. Of those 7.9 percent had 2 or more vehicles available, 7. percent owned their home, and.6 percent were at or above 1 percent of the poverty level. Minutes Less than 1 1 to 1 1 to 19 2 to 2 2 to 29 3 to 3 3 to to 9 6 or more Commute Times by Mode of Transportation Drove Alone Public Transportation Percent of Total 1

2 September 216 Labor Market Conditions Payroll Employment (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through July Total July 1, Fifth District - Total July 1, Total July, Logging and Mining July... Construction July Manufacturing July Trade, Transportation, and Utilities July Information July Financial Activities July Professional and Business Services July Education and Health Services July Leisure and Hospitality July Payroll Employment Performance Other Services July Total Employment Performance Government July Year-over-Year Percent Change through July 216 Metro Payroll Employment (NSA) Period Level (s) YoY % Change Asheville MSA - Total July Charlotte MSA - Total July 1,11. Durham MSA - Total July Fayetteville MSA - Total July Greensboro-High Point MSA - Total July Raleigh-Cary MSA - Total July Wilmington MSA - Total July Winston-Salem MSA - Total July Total Logging and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities -.3 Information -. Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality (SA) Fifth District (SA) (SA) Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA Durham MSA Fayetteville MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Wilmington MSA Winston-Salem MSA Other Services Government

3 September 216 Labor Market Conditions Unemployment Rate (SA) July 16 June 16 July 1 Through July Fifth District Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA..6. Durham MSA.1.3. Fayetteville MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Wilmington MSA..6. Winston-Salem MSA..6. Civilian Labor Force (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change July 19, Unemployment Rate Fifth District July 1, Labor Force July, Year-over-Year Percent Change through July 216 Asheville MSA July Charlotte MSA July 1, Durham MSA July Fayetteville MSA July Greensboro-High Point MSA July Raleigh-Cary MSA July Wilmington MSA July Winston-Salem MSA July Initial Unemployment Claims (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change July 1,9, Fifth District July 67, July 1,

4 September 216 Household Conditions Real Personal Income (SA) Period Level ($mil) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q1:16 Q1:16 1,312, Fifth District Q1:16 1,39, Q1:16 32, Median Family Income Period Level (s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA Durham MSA Fayetteville MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Winston-Salem MSA Real Personal Income Non-Business Bankruptcies Period Level QoQ % Change YoY % Change Mortgage Delinquencies Mortgage Delinquencies (% 9+ Days Delinquent) Q2:16 Q1:16 Q2:1 All Mortgages Prime Subprime All Mortgages Prime Subprime Q2:16 22, Percent 9+ Days Delinquent through Q2:16 6 Fifth District Q2:16 16, Q2:16 3,

5 September 216 Real Estate Conditions Building Permits Total Private Building Permits (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through July 216 July 9, Fifth District July 12, July, Asheville MSA July Charlotte MSA July 2, Durham MSA July Fayetteville MSA July Greensboro-High Point MSA July Greenville MSA July Hickory MSA July Jacksonville MSA July Raleigh-Cary MSA July 1, Wilmington MSA July Winston-Salem MSA July Housing Starts Total Private Housing Starts (SAAR) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change July 1, Fifth District July July Thousands of Units (SAAR) July 216

6 September 216 Real Estate Conditions House Price Index (2=1) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through June 216 June House Price Index (CoreLogic) Fifth District June June Asheville MSA June Charlotte MSA June Durham MSA June Fayetteville MSA June Greensboro-High Point MSA June Greenville MSA June Hickory MSA June Jacksonville MSA June Raleigh-Cary MSA June Wilmington MSA June Winston-Salem MSA June Greensboro MSA Median Home Sales Price (NAR) Median Home Sales Price - NAR (NSA) Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Charlotte MSA Q2: Durham MSA Q2: Greensboro-High Point MSA Q2: Raleigh-Cary MSA Q2: Median Home Sales Price - NAHB Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Asheville MSA Q2: Charlotte MSA Q2: Durham MSA Q2: Fayetteville MSA Q2: Greensboro-High Point MSA Q2: Raleigh-Cary MSA Q2: Winston-Salem MSA Q2: Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q2:16-1 6

7 September 216 Real Estate Conditions Charlotte MSA Office Vacancy Rate Housing Opportunity Index (%) Q2:16 Q1:16 Q2:1 Through Q2:16 Asheville MSA Charlotte MSA Durham MSA Fayetteville MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Winston-Salem MSA Commercial Vacancy Rates (%) Q2:16 Q1:16 Q2:1 Office Vacancies Raleigh/Durham Charlotte Retail Vacancies Raleigh/Durham.6..7 Raleigh/Durham CSA Industrial Vacancy Rate Charlotte Through Q2:16 Industrial Vacancies Raleigh/Durham Charlotte