US Employment * All data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Transcription

1 US Employment * All data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2 Total US Non-farm Employment (thousands) RECOVERY Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis Dot Com Bubble Savings & Loan Crisis Non-farm employment includes all private, education and government employment. See some of the recent bubbles The beginnings of a recovery! Now let s take a quick look at US employment under different presidents.

3 Jobs by President (millions) Truman Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 Obama Actual Administration Truman Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 Obama Two Year Delay The left hand chart shows private jobs created during a president s time in office. The right hand side shows private jobs created beginning two years into a president s term and continuing until two years after they leave office. The right chart shows almost no net jobs under Carter and Bush 2; there is no data yet for Obama for the right chart since he has been in office for less than two years.

4 The Current Situation in more detail

5 Total US Non-farm Employment From 2008 to the minimum in 2010, 8.4 million jobs were lost. Since 2010, the economy has gained back 1.1 million jobs. The people who are gaining jobs are not necessarily the same ones who lost their jobs. Let s see which sectors gained jobs and which sectors lost jobs.

6 Recession and Recovery (millions) Healthcare & Education Government Manufacturing Construction Services Retail and WholesaleTrade Finance Leisure & Hospitality Transportation & Utilities Information Mining & Logging Healthcare & Education Services Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Transportation & Utilities Mining & Logging Retail and Wholesale Trade Government Finance Construction Information Gains Losses The left hand side shows job changes from when the downturn occurred; the right hand side shows the employment recovery starting in From 2008 to 2010, manufacturing, construction, services and trade were the biggest losers, offset only by healthcare, education, and government. A jobs recovery started early in 2010 across all private sectors except construction, finance, and information. Government began a decline in employment led by state and local government offset by a gain in federal employment.

7 Employment 2010 Ending Employment (millions) Employment Percents Government Government Business & Personal Services Business & Personal Services Wholesale and Retail Trade Wholesale and Retail Trade Healthcare & Education Healthcare & Education Leisure & Hospitality Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Manufacturing Finance Finance Construction Construction Transportation & Utilities Transportation & Utilities Information Information Mining & Logging Mining & Logging % 5% The left hand side shows total employment in major sectors at the end of The right hand side shows the percentages of total employment for the same sectors. 10% 15% 20%

8 Employment 2010 Ending Compared with Recession Losses and Recovery Gains Employment (millions) Government Business & Personal Services Trade Education & Healthcare Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Finance Construction Transportation & Utilities Information Mining & Logging Employment Recession loss or gain ( ) Recovery Loss or Gain ( ) This chart shows employment at the end of 2010 with the losses during the recession shown in red and the gains from the recovery shown in yellow. This should give you a sense for the enormous changes in manufacturing and construction as compared to business & personal services where the recession losses were a smaller percentage of the whole. 25

9 Government Government has historically always grown with a few exceptions: after World War II, the Reagan administration and... NOW. Government is declining... Let s look a little closer. Ignore the census spike. To really understand what is going on, you need a sense of all three pieces: federal, state & local Government Employment (thousands) Federal State Local ,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000

10 Government Employment Details Let s dig in to what is happening in government employment from Federal jobs are trending up (look left), ignoring the census spike. State jobs (lower left) are trending down. Local government jobs are trending down and are the dominating government losses. Federal State Local

11 Employment Sector Histories

12 Business & Professional Services Looks very much like total employment since it is a dominant component. Difference is a shallower recession. And a faster recovery

13 Retail & Wholesale Trade Very much like total employment. Coming back, but very slowly

14 Healthcare and Education No recession here. Been going straight up, still going straight up

15 Leisure & Hospitality ? /11 This is a relatively stable sector. It seems to have mainly missed the dot-com bust. More interestingly, it seems not to have noticed 9/11, already being in decline. In fact, no sector seems to have been significantly affected by 9/11. The recession started in early 2008 and is recovering fast

16 Manufacturing million Manufacturing has been the most erratic sector since the second world war. Since 2000, declines have been fast, with over 5.6 million jobs lost. The explanations are complicated: productivity gains, globalization, new high value products and..... The Recession. Its most rapid recent decline happened later in 2008 than other sectors. But it seems to be leveling out. We ll sort this out in new videos.

17 Finance ? The recent finance pattern is a little different. There is no pronounced internet bubble around The recession began about a year earlier here. Wonder what that means! We ll study this a lot in new videos! Last, there is no serious recovery although there seems to be a leveling out late in

18 Construction The recession started here in Somewhat earlier than most other sectors. It accelerated down fast in It now seems to have bottomed out

19 Transportation & Utilities /11 This sector experiences greater ups and downs than most others. You can see an effect from 9/11 unlike other sectors. This sector headed down in 2008 with everything else. It is recovering pretty fast now

20 Information Includes both publishing and web-based businesses. This is a somewhat volatile sector dealing with the challenges of changing technology. You can clearly see the dot-com bubble. Unlike some of the other mainstream sectors, it is not clear that it has bottomed out ? 2800

21 Mining & Logging This sector experiences greater ups and downs than most others. The early 80 s spike was probably related to oil exploration but we don t have the data yet. This sector was affected by the recession a bit later than others, late 2008, but has recovered almost completely

22 Next videos Relating employment to presidents is tricky. How far into the future do their policies and legislation impact? We ll dig deeper into the employment sectors to understand what s happening. What is the role of the finance sector in influencing employment in other sectors? What s really going on with manufacturing? crisis of policy or massive market forces? Watch our next videos, you may be surprised!