THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA (415) FAX: (415) Release #2515 Release Date: Friday, October 9, 2015 KAMALA HARRIS HOLDS THE EARLY LEAD IN NEXT JUNE'S OPEN PRIMARY FOR U.S. SENATE. FELLOW DEMOCRAT LORETTA SANCHEZ PLACES SECOND. SHOULD THESE STANDINGS HOLD, THE GENERAL ELECTION WOULD BE AN ALL-DEMOCRATIC PARTY AFFAIR. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) California Attorney General Democrat Kamala Harris holds the early lead in voter preferences to succeed U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer, who will not be seeking a fifth term in next year's statewide elections. The latest Field Poll finds 30% of likely voters currently support Harris. Another Democrat, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, is in second place in the open primary at 17%, while three prominent Republican candidates trail. They include Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, who places third at 9%, and two former California Republican Party state chairmen, Tom Del Beccaro (6%) and Duf Sundheim (3%). A huge 34% of likely voters are undecided. Both Harris and Sanchez are better known and are much more favorably regarded among the state's likely voters than any of the three Republicans. Early impressions of each of the Senate candidates are highly partisan. Since the June election for U.S. Senate will be an open primary, all candidates regardless of party will be tested together on one ballot, and voters of all political stripes can choose to vote for a candidate from any party. The top two finishers regardless of party affiliation will move on to face one another in the fall general election. As the election nears, this may create as much interest to who finishes second as to who wins the primary, since it will likely determine whether the fall general election will be a traditional Democrat vs. Republican affair or one that pits two Democrats against one another. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

2 Friday, October 9, 2015 Page 2 Democrats Harris and Sanchez the early frontrunners in the open primary for U.S. Senate Democrats Harris and Sanchez have expanded the proportions of likely voters supporting their candidacies since May. At present, 30% of likely voters in the Democratic primary are backing Harris, up from 19% in May. Sanchez is now the choice of 17% of likely voters, up from 8% five months ago. Each of the three Republicans measured continue to receive only single-digit voter support at this time. Table 1 Trend of likely voter preferences in the California June 2016 open primary election for U.S. Senate October 2015 May 2015 Kamala Harris (D) 30% 19% Loretta Sanchez (D) 17 8 Rocky Chavez (R) 9 6 Tom Del Beccaro (R) 6 5 Duf Sundheim (R) 3 1 Other 1 3 Undecided (D) denotes Democrat, (R) denotes Republican Differences in voter preferences for Senate across subgroups of the primary electorate Voter support for Harris in the open primary is greatest among registered Democrats, voters living in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area and among the state's non-hispanic ethnic voters, which include African Americans and Asian Americans. Sanchez leads Harris among Latino voters and also does well among likely voters in Southern California, especially those living in the South Coast region. Chavez and his two fellow Republicans are currently dividing the preferences of GOP voters in the Senate primary, although a very large proportion (42%) are undecided. In addition, almost half of no party preference voters (45%) are undecided at this stage.

3 Friday, October 9, 2015 Page 3 Table 2 Preferences for U.S. Senate in the open primary by subgroup (among Californians likely to vote in the June 2016 primary) Harris Sanchez Chavez Others Undecided Total statewide 30% Party registration Democrats 49% Republicans 8% No party preference/others 21% Area Southern California 25% Northern California 36% Region Los Angeles County 32% South Coast 17% Other Southern California 25% Central Valley 20% San Francisco Bay Area 49% Other Northern California* 30% Gender Male 28% Female 31% Race/ethnicity White non-hispanic 30% Latino 17% Black/Asian/other 44% * Small sample size. Voter identification and image ratings of the Senate candidates When likely voters are asked their impressions of each the Senate candidates, majorities can offer an opinion of Harris and Sanchez, while only about one in three can do so with regard to each of the three Republicans. In addition, among voters with an opinion, impressions of Harris and Sanchez are much more positive than they are for each of the Republicans. About two in three likely voters statewide (63%) can offer an opinion of Harris, and among those who do, 40% view her positively and 23% negatively. A majority of likely voters (59%) also has an opinion of Sanchez, and more voters view her positively (34%) than negatively (25%).

4 Friday, October 9, 2015 Page 4 By contrast, only about one in three likely voters is able to offer an opinion of each of the three Republicans, and those who can are more likely to hold an unfavorable opinion as hold a favorable view. Voter images of the Senate candidates are also highly partisan. Among Democratic voters, both Harris and Sanchez are viewed in an overwhelmingly positive light, which both are viewed quite negatively by Republicans. The opposite is true for the three Republicans, with Democratic voters viewing each in a negative light, while the Republican voters offer more positive than negative assessments of the three. Table 3 Voter identification and image ratings of the U.S. Senate candidates (among likely voters in the June 2016 primary) Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Harris all likely voters 40% Democrats 60% 7 33 Republicans 16% No party preference/others 34% Sanchez all likely voters 34% Democrats 48% 9 43 Republicans 15% No party preference/others 30% Chavez all likely voters 11% Democrats 6% Republicans 19% No party preference/others 10% Del Beccaro all likely voters 10% Democrats 5% Republicans 20% No party preference/others 8% Sundheim all likely voters 13% Democrats 5% Republicans 26% No party preference/others 11% 21 68

5 Friday, October 9, 2015 Page 5 Two very different types of general election contests could emerge from the Senate primary Because the June primary election to fill Boxer's U.S. Senate seat is an open primary, candidates from all parties Democrats, Republicans and others will be listed together on the same primary election ballot, and voters of all political stripes can choose to vote for a candidate from any party. The two candidates receiving the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, then square off against one another five months later in the November general election. This opens up the possibility of two very different types of general election contests emerging from the primary, depending on whether the top two finishers are from the same party or from different parties. For example, if the two current poll leaders, Harris and Sanchez, are the top finishers in June, when they face each other in November, they will need to vie not only for the votes of fellow Democrats but also those of the state's Republicans, no party preference and minor party voters, who collectively account for 57% of the state's registered voters. On the other hand, if the general election were to be a more traditional Democrat vs. Republican affair, given the strong partisan loyalties of Democratic and Republican voters and the fact that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide by 15 percentage points, the Democrat would be the heavy favorite. 30

6 Friday, October 9, 2015 Page 6 Methodological Details Information About The Survey The findings come from a Field Poll completed September 17-October 4, 2015 among 1,002 registered voters in California, of whom 694 are considered likely to vote in the June statewide primary election. Interviews were administered by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish. Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter's name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with voters on their landline or cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. In this survey 787 interviews were completed with voters on their cell phones, while 215 were completed on a landline or other phone. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was weighted to align it to the proper distribution of voters by race/ethnicity and other demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall likely voter sample in this report is +/- 4.3 percentage points. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Questions Asked U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has announced that she will not be seeking another term as U.S. Senator next year. I am going to read the names of some people who are likely to run for U.S. Senate in California in As I read each name, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. (NAMES AND TITLES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) Is your opinion of (LAST NAME) favorable or unfavorable? (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES AND TITLES READ) The California primary election for U.S. Senate next June will be an open primary. In an open primary, the candidates from all parties Democrats, Republicans and others will be listed together on the same ballot and voters can choose any candidate from any party. Suppose the open primary election for U.S. Senate were being held today and the candidates were (NAMES AND PARTIES OF ALL CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER), who would be your first choice?

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