THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA (415) FAX: (415) Release #2543 Release Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2016 MAJORITY CONTINUES TO GIVE BROWN POSITIVE JOB MARKS. HIS SIXTH-YEAR RATINGS EXCEED THOSE OF MOST OF HIS PREDECESSORS, INCLUDING HIS OWN EARLIER STINT AS GOVERNOR. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) By a nearly two to one margin, California voters continue to approve of the job Jerry Brown is doing as Governor. At present, 56% of the state's registered voters approve of Brown's performance overall, while 30% disapprove. Voter assessments of Brown have remained remarkably stable over his six years in office, particularly during the past two and one-half years. For example, in each of the ten Field Polls conducted since December 2013, majorities ranging from 54% to 59% have approved of his performance, while only about one in three have disapproved. The Governor's current job ratings during what is now the sixth year of his term are much more favorable than those given most of his predecessors at comparable points in their tenures. This includes the assessments that Californians gave to Brown during his previous stint as governor. Brown's immediate predecessor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, was viewed more unfavorably than favorably by a 48% to 40% margin, with two and one-half years remaining in his second term. Similarly, during the sixth year of the administrations of former Governors Pete Wilson and Ronald Reagan, both were also receiving slightly more negative than positive appraisals from the public. A July 1980 Field Poll also documented that more Californians offered a negative (52%) than positive assessment (46%) of the job Brown was doing during his earlier tenure as governor. The only recent governor who obtained more favorable job marks than Brown is now receiving during his sixth year in office was Republican George Deukmejian. In July 1988, more than twice as many Californians rated Deukmejian positively as negatively. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

2 Wednesday, July 13, 2016 Page 2 Trend of Brown's job ratings during his current tenure as Governor The latest poll is the twenty-first time that The Field Poll has tracked voter assessments of Brown during his current term as Governor. Overall, the ratings given Brown have remained remarkably stable, particularly those taken over the past two and one-half years. For example, in each of the ten polls conducted since December 2013, the proportion of voters who approve of Brown has ranged narrowly between 54% and 59%. Only about one in three voters during this period have disapproved. Table 1 Trend of Brown's job performance ratings during his current tenure as Governor (among California registered voters) July % April % 36 9 January % October % May % February % September % 36 6 June % April % 32 9 December % 33 9 July % February % October % September % July % Late May % February % November % September % June % March % 21 31

3 Wednesday, July 13, 2016 Page 3 Trend of Brown's job ratings during his previous tenure as Governor There was much more volatility in the way Californians assessed the job Brown was doing during his previous tenure as Governor in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Early in his term Brown received some of the most positive assessments ever given a sitting governor in California, with greater than two in three approving and only about one in four disapproving. However, assessments of Brown declined significantly during his second term, and by the sixth year, more Californians disapproved than approved of his performance. Table 2 Trend in Brown's job performance ratings during his previous tenure as Governor ( ) August % 54 3 January % 58 3 October % 58 2 August % 56 2 January % 49 3 October % 49 2 July % 52 3 April % 61 1 February % 57 2 May % 49 5 February % 42 4 August % 45 5 February % October % 35 5 November % 33 9 August % 30 4 March % 25 6 November % 24 9 Note: The job performance ratings reported above have been converted to the current two-point approve/disapprove scale for comparative purposes.

4 Wednesday, July 13, 2016 Page 4 Comparing Brown's current job ratings to those of his predecessors The Governor's current job ratings are much more favorable than those given most of his predecessors at a comparable point in their tenures. Brown's immediate predecessor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, was viewed more unfavorably than favorably by a 48% to 40% margin with two and one-half years remaining in his second term. Similarly, during the sixth year of the administrations of former Governors Pete Wilson and Ronald Reagan, both received slightly more negative than positive appraisals from the public. The only recent governor who received a more positive assessment than Brown during his sixth year was Republican George Deukmejian. In July 1988, more than twice as many Californians rated Deukmejian positively as negatively. Table 3 Comparing Californians' current job assessment of Brown to those of his predecessors at similar points in their second term in office Jerry Brown (July 2016) 56% Arnold Schwarzenegger (July 2008) 40% Pete Wilson (June 1996) 45% 49 6 George Deukmejian (July 1988) 66% 30 4 Jerry Brown (July 1980) 46% 52 2 Ronald Reagan (October 1972) 46% 48 6 Note: Governor Gray Davis was recalled in 2003, before he could reach his sixth year in office. (For surveys conducted prior to 1994, the data from the original surveys were converted to the current two-point approve/disapprove scale for comparative purposes.) Brown's job performance ratings across subgroups of the voter population While Californians' evaluations of the job Brown is doing exhibit a traditional partisan hue, they are not nearly as partisan as those currently given to some of our political leaders. For example, yesterday's Field Poll reported a huge partisan gulf in the way Californians are appraising the job Barack Omama is doing as president. While 80% of this state's Democrats currently approve of Obama, just 19% of Republicans feel this way. For Brown, the partisan gulf is not nearly as wide, with 74% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans approving of his performance. Approval of the Governor's job performance is broad-based, with voters in most major demographic and regional subgroups offering a more positive than negative assessment.

5 Wednesday, July 13, 2016 Page 5 Table 4 Governor Brown's current approval ratings across subgroups of the California registered voter population Total statewide 56% Party registration Democrats 74% Republicans 33% 58 9 No party preference/other 53% Political ideology Conservative 38% Middle-of-the-road 63% Liberal 77% Area Coastal counties 59% Inland counties 49% Region Los Angeles County 58% Other Southern California 52% 41 7 San Francisco Bay Area 70% Central Valley/ Other Northern California 49% Gender Male 58% Female 55% Age % % or older 52% Race/ethnicity White non-hispanic 56% 36 8 Latino 59% African American* 79% 7 14 Asian American* 54% Tenure Homeowner 55% 36 9 Renter/other 59% * Small sample base 30

6 Wednesday, July 13, 2016 Page 6 Information About the Survey Methodological Details The findings in this report come from a Field Poll survey completed June 8-July 2, 2016 among a random subsample of 586 registered voters in California. They were included as part of a larger Field Poll survey conducted among a random sample of 1,635 California adults. To capture the diversity of the California population, the survey was administered in six languages and dialects English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean, depending on the preference of the respondent. Interviews were administered by telephone by live, professionally trained interviewers calling from Interviewing Service of America's central location call center in Van Nuys. The sample was developed using a dual frame random digit dial cell phone and landline methodology to generate telephone listings covering the state of California. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected adult on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Of the 1,635 interviews completed as part of the larger survey, 1,309 adults were interviewed on a cell phone, and 326 were interviewed on a landline or other phone. After the completion of interviewing, the combined cell phone and landline samples were weighted to align it to known parameters of the state's adult and registered voter populations. The weighting process also takes into account the higher probability of reaching respondent who regularly receive calls on both a landline and cell phone. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the random subsample of 586 registered voters is ±4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Question Asked Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California?

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