CORN. July 29, Sep Corn Futures
|
|
- Chastity Page
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 CORN SIDEWAYS GRIND September corn chopped sideways this week, losing half a cent and settling at $ The crop continues to look better than normal and without any threatening weather in the forecast, the trade is just waiting to see what s actually out there. The funds have been sellers, adding to their small net short position in corn. Absent of any late season weather developments, corn likely drifts into a sideways channel between $3.20 and $3.75 for the next days. The August S&D report is due out the 12 th, which will reveal an updated yield estimate and get us closer to locking down the 15/16 carryout. After that, crop tours kick off, with many anxiously awaiting some hard data from the field. CROP PROGRESS / CONDITION Corn condition ratings remained unchanged again this week at 76% good/excellent. Improved ratings took place in 3 of the top 4 corn states, with Nebraska the only one to see a slight tick down. Ohio and South Dakota saw the biggest drop in ratings with a 4 and 3 point drop, respectively. Overall, conditions are much better than normal with the current ratings tracking with 2014, the year that produced a record bpa yield. Corn silking was listed at 79% vs 70% on average while 13% of the crop was listed in the dough stage, right on the 5 year average. Key states and their deviation from average in terms of good/excellent rating: NE (+13), IA (+18), IL (+29), MN (+15), KS (+27), IN (+25), OH (+8), MO (+26), and SD (- 8). (Chart courtesy of FC Stone) Sep Corn Futures July 29, 2016 ETHANOL Ethanol production fell from its lofty levels a week ago to 998k barrels/day, down from last week s record 1,029k. Stocks fell by 32 mln gallons (-3.6%), now down to their lowest level in 7 weeks. Overall, ethanol margins remain favorable which should continue to encourage steady production. Crude oil is down 21% since early June, which certainly impacts the profitability of the ethanol industry. Corn is down 26% over that same stretch, which has kept margins in good shape for ethanol processors. Despite this, the USDA s current 5,225 mbu ethanol demand target is at risk of being cut again in the upcoming August S&D report.
2 EXPORTS Corn export sales were within trade estimates this week as 17.3 mbu were reported. That total brings commitments to 1,917 mbu vs 1,855 mbu a year ago (3.4%). Total sales now exceed the USDA s 1,900 mbu export target. It s expected that old crop export demand increases some in the August S&D as these numbers would support. New crop export sales totaled 18.8 mbu this week, within market expectations. Corn shipments were in line with market ideas this week as 51.4 mbu were shipped. That number is right on pace with what is needed each week to hit the USDA s 1,900 mbu target for 15/16. However, should the USDA raise the export target in the August S&D, shipments will need to increase further from the current pace. So, if the USDA raises exports by mbu in a few weeks, the weekly pace would have to jump by 4-8 mbu. FUNDS Friday s Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed the funds trimming length and adding to short positions through trading last Tuesday. The funds can certainly press things further if they decide to, as the net short position is small at this point in time. The funds continue to pile on to the short wheat trade as managed money is short 130k contracts - near a record for the wheat crop. Negative news will need to continue to keep that position that large, otherwise wheat is primed for a short covering pop. Would corn follow a wheat rally? Yes, I believe it would find some support in that scenario. NEW CROP December corn formed a sideways channel this week as volatility and weather premium have been sucked out. The funds are building a net short position as the market attempts to figure out how big this year s corn crop will be. Good demand has helped stop the bleeding at current levels, though lower prices cannot be ruled out. The August Supply & Demand report is due out on the 12 th, and with that we will get an updated look at yield estimates. Typically the August report reveals the USDA s first yield revision of the summer, with many in the trade expecting a couple bushel increase this time around. With December Corn Futures the current crop conditions near all-time highs, the funds should be safe with their short positions for the time being. Producers who need to add to new crop sales should remain patient. As funds build their short position it creates opportunities for short covering rallies to develop. Macro market factors often trigger these types of moves as investors respond to risk and cross hedge type trades. Look for retracement levels back to the $3.75 area as opportunities to engage. HTA s at those levels can produce $4.00 July 17 futures if managed properly. Reach out to a member of the ProEdge team for details on how this can work for you! On the week, December corn added a penny to finish at $
3 BASIS Corn basis was steady to firmer this week as farmer selling remains extremely light. The theme hasn t changed for several weeks, though the calendar continues to creep closer to harvest. Basis may show some additional strength yet, but the risk-to-reward may not be worth getting too cute. Expect values to start softening up as we get to the 2 nd half of August. RECOMMENDATIONS Manage your old crop inventory by locking in basis values while they are firm yet. The risk in this category is to the downside as well. We may gain a nickel, yes, but I can confidently say we ll lose when it decides to break. Manage your risk-to-reward here on old crop stocks. Basis contracts allow you to lock in basis, deliver the grain, and keep your price open. Visit with your ProEdge rep for details on how this can work. CVA can do this for you at any of our elevators as well as direct ship destinations. One suggestion would be to execute this and then look for Bonus Premium opportunities on a retracement higher. $3.30 cash with an extra 20 cents from a Bonus Premium makes $3.50 attainable yet. Call for details! SOYBEANS FORK IN THE ROAD The soybean trade is approaching a fork in the road. Depending on how weather shakes out in the coming weeks soybeans could trade a dollar on either side of the current market. Fund length is still quite large in the soybean market, even after the $2.00 break from the June highs. Current crop conditions suggest a good one is coming at us, but market bulls are quick to point out that soybean ratings can be confusing last year s ratings were worse than 2010 and 2014 but produced a record yield. The macro markets are still impactful as some policy adjustments (or lack thereof) in Japan had some bearing on the US Dollar index Friday. On the week, August soybeans added 26 0 cents to settle at $ CROP PROGRESS / CONDITION Soybean conditions remained unchanged again this week at 71% good/excellent. Like corn, conditions are much better than recent history with 2014 the only year with a better rating for the comparable week. Most states saw steady to higher ratings week over week, including key states like IA and IL. KS and SD saw ratings decline by 4 and 5 points, respectively. Soybeans blooming stood at 76% vs 66% on average while 35% of the soybean crop is setting pods vs 26% on average. Key states and their deviation from average in terms of good/excellent rating: NE (+14), IA (+18), IL (+23), IN (+24), MN (+11), OH (+14), MO (+25), KS (+15) and SD (-4).
4 EXPORTS Soybean export sales were very disappointing this week as Thursday s report showed net cancellations of 1.4 mmt while the market was searching for something between mmt. The old crop book is now at 1,910 mbu vs 1,876 mbu a year ago (+1.8%). That number is well above the USDA s 1,795 mbu export estimate, though a good portion of these sales will likely be rolled into the 16/17 marketing year. New crop export sales of 24.9 mbu were reported this week, within the range of market ideas. Soybean shipments were the largest in 19 weeks this past week with 25.7 mbu reported. That number is well above what is needed each week to hit the USDA s 1,795 mbu estimate. Right now, sales are well above that number (read above), so the reality of what gets exported this year rests in the shipments number. Performances like the one this week could justify an export increase in the upcoming August S&D. FUNDS Friday s COT report surprised the trade when it revealed the managed money sector was as long as they were. Given the steep break in price over the past two weeks, many expected to see a much larger cut to the size of the fund long. The numbers indicate that through Tuesday last week, the funds still had over 109k contracts of net length. What does this mean for soybeans? They are more at risk of a deeper price break than what the trade thought towards the end of last week. If the weather doesn t provide some threatening conditions, we could see premium continue to be extracted. November futures with an $8 in front would not be out of the question and the road to that point will likely be a fast one. What the length does reveal is the market s appreciation for the tightness and demand pull taking place on the soybean balance sheet. The market needs a good crop to satisfy global protein demand. MACRO The US FED kept interest rates unchanged last week, contributing to some weakness in the US dollar on Friday. Additionally the Bank of Japan (BOJ) disappointed the market when it decided to make fewer adjustments to their stimulus efforts than what many were expecting. Interest rates were left unchanged at a negative 0.1% and asset purchases were not expanded beyond the current schedule. That move contributed to the pressure in the US Dollar Index, thereby supporting beans last Friday. In other macro news, Argentina appears to be wavering on their commitment to pull their soybean export tax down by another 5%. This was the campaign promise of now president Mauricio Macri, in which corn and wheat export taxes were abolished, and soybeans were expected to take several 5% drops over the span of several years. Newspapers in Argentina have indicated that the Minister of Agriculture and the
5 Argentine government are now second guessing the next 5% cut as it would have adverse impacts to government revenue. NEW CROP November soybeans had a positive finish to end the week as a variety of news created the right environment for a green day. Soybeans are still sensitive to the supply conversation as we enter pod fill in key production areas. The tightening old crop carryout has put pressure on this year s growing season to produce a very good crop. So far, that crop has avoided major issues, leading to some weather premium extraction in recent weeks. Still, the funds hold a sizeable long, longer than many thought, through trading last Tuesday. This suggests that soybeans are still at risk to lose another Nov Soybean Futures dollar if supply is perceived to be safe. On the other hand, a dollar could be added to the upside as well under the right weather scenario. Producers should ask themselves how many more soybeans need to be sold before the combine hits the field. Once you ve determined that, understand that weather premium exists for a few weeks yet. Beyond that and the supply side risk starts to wane. So, if you re in the boat of needing to add to pre-harvest sales, pay attention to price action leading up to the August S&D report. You may receive a good opportunity to get additional sales on. Targets would include retracement levels at $10.48 Nov futures followed by $ Expect the volatility to continue for several more weeks. On the week, November soybeans added 14 6 cents to settle at $ BASIS Soybean basis was firmer this week as old crop stocks get divvied up between counter seasonal export demand and the domestic processors. With the export program running strong, expect basis values to act a little bit like corn. As the calendar approaches September, values will want to retreat. Until then, values should remain supported. RECOMMENDATIONS Be a seller in the next 3-4 weeks if you need to add to sales. Soybeans are the only row crop commodity with excessive fund length yet, so the risk for further price erosion is there with the right weather forecast. Look to the retracement levels outlined above for targets. Simple offers have proven valuable in volatile times like this. Reach out to your ProEdge rep to get your orders ready and waiting!
6 WEATHER AUGUST MAPS Heat looks to be in the two week forecast, though moisture will be there to limit stress for a majority of the Belt. Temperatures look to peak on Tuesday this week before moderating into the 80 s the balance of the week. Further out, the 6-10 day suggests moisture will be above average in addition to higher temps. The latest one-month outlook from the National Weather Service shows above normal temps for the southeast portion of the Belt while moisture looks to be above average for key production areas, including Nebraska. At this stage, soybeans will reflect changes in the forecast and be more susceptible to larger price swings. Corn is a follower with most of this season s weather risk in the rearview. Risk Disclosure -The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you or your organization in light of your financial condition. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.
FCStone Grain Recap July 9, 2015
CORN: Values higher throughout the day on heavy volume as traders anticipate USDA s Friday S&D update and speculate on US crop problems. Weekly export sales of 535,000 tons vs 363,000 tons of old crop
More informationMarket will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr
Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr USDA didn t do much to help the corn market in its May 10 reports other than give soybeans a big lift. That could
More information2013 World Grain Outlook
2013 World Grain Outlook Presented by: John Roach February 18, 2013 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully
More informationWe have seen in the How
: Examples Using Hedging, Forward Contracting, Crop Insurance, and Revenue Insurance To what extent can hedging, forward contracting, and crop and revenue insurance reduce uncertainty within the year (intrayear)
More informationCROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1
Presented at the 1997 Missouri Commercial Agriculture Crop Institute CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1 Presented by: Art Barnaby Managing Risk With
More informationFCStone Grain Recap January 6, 2016
CORN: CH16 made new contract lows but were unable to hold below unchanged into the close. Weekly ethanol production marginally higher this week, up 4 thbpd to 996. Ethanol stocks built again reaching 21099
More informationDAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY 08/17/16
Wednesday August 17, 2016 150 S. Wacker Dr., Suite 2350 Chicago, IL 60606 800-621-1414 or 312-277-0102 info@zaner.com www.zaner.com DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY Surge in soyoil and oversold grains may
More informationChapter Five: Risk Management and Commodity Markets
Chapter Five: Risk Management and Commodity Markets All business firms face risk; agricultural businesses more than most. Temperature and precipitation are largely beyond anyone s control, yet these factors
More informationFCStone Grain Recap October 1, 2015
CORN: A choppy but firm market today. Today starts the march of the private crop estimates led off with FCStone s number this afternoon. Export sales reported today showed net bookings of 748.2 tmt as
More informationSection III Advanced Pricing Tools
Section III Learning objectives The appeal of options Puts vs. calls Understanding premiums Recognizing if an option is in the money, at the money or out of the money Key terms Call option: The right,
More informationMGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options
MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options 07 Crop Outlook and Int l Durum Forum Minot, ND 1 Thank you very much for having me here. I would like to acquaint you with a new set of risk management tools.
More informationAdvance Trading Inc Merchandising Seminar. The Warehouse Industry
Advance Trading Inc Merchandising Seminar The Warehouse Industry How does the marketplace assure the consumer an adequate supply of grain all year? Consumption January-December October Production How does
More informationResearch Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk
Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it
More informationThe Risk/Reward Properties of Bull Spreads
The Risk/Reward Properties of Bull Spreads ThE RiSk/REWaRD PRoPERTiES of BUll SPREaDS Bull Spreads are versatile instruments. They can be used to trade direction, to trade volatility or, in conjunction
More informationUsing Futures Markets to Manage Price Risk for Feeder Cattle (AEC 2013-01) February 2013
Using Futures Markets to Manage Price Risk for Feeder Cattle (AEC 2013-01) February 2013 Kenny Burdine 1 Introduction: Price volatility in feeder cattle markets has greatly increased since 2007. While
More informationIntroduction to Options. Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC www.cihedging.com 312-596-7755
Introduction to Options Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC www.cihedging.com 312-596-7755 Options on Futures: Price Protection & Opportunity Copyright 2009 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC 2 Option
More informationGrain Marketing 101. University of Maryland Extension
Grain Marketing 101 Jenny Rhodes Shannon Dill John Hall Extension Educators, Agriculture & Natural Resources Marketing terminology CBOT futures Basis Contracts Forward Contract Hedge to Arrive Basis Contract
More informationA BULLISH CASE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 2016
A BULLISH CASE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 2016 Probabilities for higher prices, and the factors that could spur price rallies. Commodity markets tend to move on three variables: perception, momentum and
More informationDAILY FINANCIAL & COMMODITY MARKET NEWS
DAILY FINANCIAL & COMMODITY MARKET NEWS FOR NEWSLETTERS, PUBLICATIONS, WEB SITES, SCRIPTS Writing daily market summaries is hard. It is exacting and time-consuming. Accuracy has to be 100%. Dozens, or
More informationMarket Monitor Number 3 November 2012
Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 AMIS Crops: World Supply-Demand Balances in 2012/13 World supply and demand situation continues to tighten for wheat and maize but rice and soybeans have eased. In
More informationIndex futures contract features. Contract features. MGEX Agricultural Index. MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options
MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options 1 MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options Five agricultural indexes futures and options contracts: National Corn Index (NCI) National Soybean Index (NSI)
More informationLower Rates Mean Lower Crop Insurance Cost 1
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial
More informationUnderstanding New Generation Grain Contracts November, 2005
Understanding New Generation Grain Contracts November, 2005 Developed by: Steven D. Johnson, Ph.D. Farm & Ag Business Management Field Specialist Introduction Grain marketing and related cash and futures
More informationPrinciples of Hedging with Futures
MARKETING & UTILIZATION Cooperative Extension Service Purdue University West Lafayette, IN 47907 NCH-47 Principles of Hedging with Futures Chris Hurt, Purdue University Robert N. Wisner, Iowa State University
More informationAGRICULTURE UNDERSTANDING BASIS
AGRICULTURE UNDERSTANDING BASIS General ContentsInformation Series Understanding Basis..................................... 2 Keeping History........................................ 6 Putting Basis to
More informationHedging strategies aim to reduce price risk
April 2014 INSIGHTS Hedging strategies aim to reduce price risk AgriThought AgriBank provides financial solutions to meet the needs of production agriculture in America s heartland. We feature our research
More informationADVANCED COTTON FUTURES AND OPTIONS STRATEGIES
ADVANCED COTTON FUTURES AND OPTIONS STRATEGIES Blake K. Bennett Extension Economist/Management Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System INTRODUCTION Cotton producers have used futures
More informationUS Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update
US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney Volume XVI, Issue 24 June 29, 2016 Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group SteinerConsulting.com 800-526-4612
More informationUnderstanding and Using Basis - Grains
Understanding and Using Basis - Grains By: E. Dean Baldwin Reviewers: John Ferris and David Holder Edited by Duane Griffith and Stephen Koontz 1 Basis is defined as the amount in cents per bushel a specified
More informationGeneral Information Series
General Information Series 1 Agricultural Futures for the Beginner Describes various applications of futures contracts for those new to futures markets. Different trading examples for hedgers and speculators
More informationFUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE
FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE Your Guide To Understanding The USDA World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates For Corn, Soybeans And Wheat By Craig & Drew Daniels 1.800.800.3840 What Is The WASDE?
More information141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 4002 Chicago, IL 60604 (800) 662-9346 www.hightowerreport.com PRECIOUS METALS COMMENTARY 12/03/14
PRECIOUS METALS COMMENTARY 12/03/14 Vulnerable status as full US report slate to lift the $ OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT): GOLD +0.40, SILVER -10.10, PLATINUM +1.20 London Gold AM Fix $1,203.25,
More information2010 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 9. Marketing Grain Using a Storage Hedge
Orlen Grunewald 2010 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters 9. Marketing Grain Using a Storage Hedge Orlen Grunewald is a professor in the Department of Agricultural
More informationManaging Feed and Milk Price Risk: Futures Markets and Insurance Alternatives
Managing Feed and Milk Price Risk: Futures Markets and Insurance Alternatives Dillon M. Feuz Department of Applied Economics Utah State University 3530 Old Main Hill Logan, UT 84322-3530 435-797-2296 dillon.feuz@usu.edu
More informationWhat is Grain Merchandising, Hedging and Basis Trading?
Grain Merchandising What is Grain Merchandising, Hedging and Basis Trading? Grain merchandising describes the process of buying and selling grain. Agribusiness firms that merchandise grain include grain
More informationIntroduction to Futures Markets
Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance Introduction to Futures Markets By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: Fact Sheets Definition of Marketing
More informationYield Protection Crop Insurance will have the same Yield Coverage as Revenue Protection, but RP is Expected to be the Preferred Choice (Updated) 1
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial
More informationSP500 September 2011 Outlook
SP500 September 2011 Outlook This document is designed to provide the trader and investor of the Standard and Poor s 500 with an overview of the seasonal tendency as well as the current cyclic pattern
More information3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs
3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs Several factors can impact the returns above variable costs for crop producers. Over a long period of time, sustained increases in the growth rate for purchased inputs
More informationCommodity products. Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options
Commodity products Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options In a world of increasing volatility, CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk across all major asset classes
More informationIn 2010, many farmers will again choose between farm
2010 The New ACRE Program: Costs and Effects By Brian C. Briggeman, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Jody Campiche, Assistant Professor, Oklahoma State University In 2010, many farmers
More informationCommon Crop Insurance Policy (CCIP) DR. G. A. ART BARNABY, JR. Kansas State University 4B Agricultural Consultants
Common Crop Insurance Policy (CCIP) DR. G. A. ART BARNABY, JR. Kansas State University 4B Agricultural Consultants Phone: 785-532-1515 EMAIL: barnaby@ksu.edu Check out our WEB page at http://www.agmanager.info
More informationBasis The Cash Futures Relationship
Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance Basis The Cash Futures Relationship By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: Fact Sheets Knowing and Managing
More informationAgricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance
Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: On-Line Workshop Outline A series of 12 lectures with slides Accompanying
More informationSoybean Supply and Demand Forecast
Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 11.5 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 7 bushels per acre or an
More informationHedging: To buy or sell a futures contract on a commodity exchange as a temporary substitute for an intended later transaction in the cash market.
Section I Learning objectives Register for Commodity Challenge and join an open game Understanding your challenge Ground rules for trading in Commodity Challenge Illustrate a simple hedge with futures
More informationCoffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade
Coffee prices fall to 18-month low as supply concerns fade The coffee market registered further decreases in July with prices reacting to the depreciation in the Brazilian exchange rate, which dropped
More informationGrain Futures Markets & National Cash Indices Review & Observations thru July 27, 2012 PHI Market Analysis Manager Virg Robinson
Grain Futures Markets & National Cash Indices Review & Observations thru July 27, 2012 PHI Market Analysis Manager Virg Robinson S&P 500 FUTURES NEAR BULLISH BREAKOUT The S&P 500 futures monthly continuation
More informationCOMMODITIES. CBOT Soybeans vs. DCE Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Crush Spread
COMMODITIES CBOT vs. DCE and Soybean Oil Spread JULY 2015 CBOT SOYBEANS VS. DCE SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL CRUSH SPREAD A key component in the soybean market is what is known as the crush spread. are
More informationNew Era Marketing 2015
Know how. Know now. New Era Marketing 2015 It s Not A Game Anymore Using Seasonal Trends to improve returns University of Nebraska Lincoln Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now. The image cannot be displayed.
More informationINTRODUCTION TO COTTON FUTURES Blake K. Bennett Extension Economist/Management Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System
INTRODUCTION TO COTTON FUTURES Blake K. Bennett Extension Economist/Management Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System Introduction For well over a century, industry representatives
More informationGrains and Oilseeds Outlook
United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 20, 2015 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2015 Released: Friday, February 20, 2015 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS
More informationThird Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014
Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the
More informationUnderstanding and Using the Basis by John C. McKissick and George A. Shumaker Extension Agricultural Economists-Marketing
Understanding and Using the Basis by John C. McKissick and George A. Shumaker Extension Agricultural Economists-Marketing Understanding the concept of basis is a key element in developing a sound marketing
More informationOptions Probability Calculator Trading Guide
Options Probability Calculator Trading Guide Precision and Profits via Probability First Edition By Craig Severson Options Probability Calculator Trading Guide Precision and Profits via Probability By
More informationFertilizer is a world market commodity, which means that supply
Supply & demand, Energy Drive Global fertilizer prices The Fertilizer Institute Nourish, Replenish, Grow Fertilizer is a world market commodity necessary for the production of food, feed, fuel fiber. &
More informationAudience Response Cards 2/13/2013. Operating with Today s Land Values. Outline for today: Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now.
Operating with Today s Land Values Prepared by: T. Lemmons & A. Vyhnalek Adapted from: B. Johnson. (2012). Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Report. UNL Extension Presented by: Allan Vyhnalek 402 563 4901
More informationSmall Business Credit Outlook
2014 Q4 Small Business Credit Outlook The Growth Engine in 2015 Stock market volatility and GDP growth slowing to 2.6% lead many to believe the economy is stumbling. This problem can be attributed to a
More informationREviewing the previous week & LAYing the groundwork for the week ahead
REviewing the previous week & LAYing the groundwork for the week ahead System Trade Updates Taken from Corresponding Issues of Weekly Re-Lay Information is from sources believed reliable but accuracy cannot
More informationWhat Percent Level and Type of Crop Insurance Should Winter Wheat Growers Select? 1
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial
More informationINTRODUCTION TO COTTON OPTIONS Blake K. Bennett Extension Economist/Management Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System
INTRODUCTION TO COTTON OPTIONS Blake K. Bennett Extension Economist/Management Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System INTRODUCTION For well over a century, industry representatives
More informationMerchandising and Inventory Management of Commodities: Carrying Charges and Basis
Merchandising and Inventory Management of Commodities: Carrying Charges and Basis Raleigh B. Wilson Several months ago when I was asked to prepare a program related to the cash activity of the grain industry,
More informationCANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS July 22, 2014
CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS July 22, 2014 Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch Director: Steve
More informationMechanics of the Futures Market. Andrew Wilkinson
Mechanics of the Futures Market Andrew Wilkinson Risk Disclosure Options and Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading
More informationDefinitions of Marketing Terms
E-472 RM2-32.0 11-08 Risk Management Definitions of Marketing Terms Dean McCorkle and Kevin Dhuyvetter* Cash Market Cash marketing basis the difference between a cash price and a futures price of a particular
More informationNexgen Software Services
Nexgen Software Services Trading Guide June 2016 2016 Nexgen Software Services Inc. Please read and understand the following disclaimers before proceeding: Futures, FX and SECURITIES and or options trading
More informationBONUS REPORT#5. The Sell-Write Strategy
BONUS REPORT#5 The Sell-Write Strategy 1 The Sell-Write or Covered Put Strategy Many investors and traders would assume that the covered put or sellwrite strategy is the opposite strategy of the covered
More informationGrain elevators play a crucial role in agricultural commodity markets through the marketing, storage, and
2008 Can Grain Elevators Survive Record Crop Prices? By Jason Henderson, Assistant Vice President and Omaha Branch Executive and Nancy Fitzgerald, Policy Economist, Banking Studies and Structure R ecord
More informationPETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission
PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission Summary As of September 14, retail regular-grade gasoline prices in California increased
More informationU.S. crop program fiscal costs: Revised estimates with updated participation information
U.S. crop program fiscal costs: Revised estimates with updated participation information June 2015 FAPRI MU Report #02 15 Providing objective analysis for 30 years www.fapri.missouri.edu Published by the
More informationMissouri Soybean Economic Impact Report
Missouri Soybean Economic Report State Analysis March 2014 The following soybean economic impact values were estimated by Value Ag, LLC, as part of a Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council funded project.
More informationOptions on Beans For People Who Don t Know Beans About Options
Options on Beans For People Who Don t Know Beans About Options Remember when things were simple? When a call was something you got when you were in the bathtub? When premium was what you put in your car?
More informationPayout Analysis of Livestock Risk Protection Insurance for Feeder Cattle
Payout Analysis of Livestock Risk Protection Insurance for Feeder Cattle By Kenneth H. Burdine & Greg Halich ABSTRACT Monte-Carlo simulation was used to examine net payouts, defined as indemnities received
More informationBrutal February hurts commodities.
Brutal February hurts commodities. After a solid January, most of the major commodities went into reverse during February, triggered by individual events within the different sectors but also some general
More informationCrop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results
September 2010 Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results FAPRI MU Report #10 10 Providing objective analysis for more than 25 years www.fapri.missouri.edu This report was prepared
More informationTerminology and Scripts: what you say will make a difference in your success
Terminology and Scripts: what you say will make a difference in your success Terminology Matters! Here are just three simple terminology suggestions which can help you enhance your ability to make your
More informationBasic Terminology For Understanding Grain Options, G85-768-A
G85-768-A Basic Terminology For Understanding Grain Options This publication, the first of six NebGuides on agricultural grain options, defines many of the terms commonly used in futures trading. Lynn
More informationThe Impact of Gold Trading
The Impact of Gold Trading By: Dan Edward, Market Analyst: FOREXYARD Date: December 2010 In this Issue: I. Introduction A brief history of gold trading II. What affects commodity prices? III. The Global
More informationGroup Risk Income Protection Plan added in Kansas for 2006 Wheat (Updated) 1
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial
More informationFirst Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015
First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 20 February 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning
More informationMARCH 2015 NEWSLETTER
MARCH 215 NEWSLETTER Dear Investor, The Global Volatility Summit ( GVS ) brings together volatility and tail hedge managers, institutional investors, thought provoking speakers, and other industry experts
More informationFCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales
FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales Fall 2015 FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales 1 Introduction Agriculture is always evolving. Average farm sizes
More informationNo duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author.
Copyright Option Genius LLC. All Rights Reserved No duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author. Be advised that all information is
More informationWHAT ARE OPTIONS OPTIONS TRADING
OPTIONS TRADING WHAT ARE OPTIONS Options are openly traded contracts that give the buyer a right to a futures position at a specific price within a specified time period Designed as more of a protective
More informationCHAPTER 20: OPTIONS MARKETS: INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 20: OPTIONS MARKETS: INTRODUCTION 1. Cost Profit Call option, X = 95 12.20 10 2.20 Put option, X = 95 1.65 0 1.65 Call option, X = 105 4.70 0 4.70 Put option, X = 105 4.40 0 4.40 Call option, X
More informationSection 1 - Covered Call Writing: Basic Terms and Definitions
Section 1 - Covered Call Writing: Basic Terms and Definitions Covered call writing is one of the most often-used option strategies, both at the institutional and individual level. Before discussing the
More informationScalping Trade Strategies April 14, 2009
www.fxcm.com sales@fxcm.com Scalping Trade Strategies April 14, 2009 DailyFX Research Team John Kicklighter David Rodriguez Currency Strategists 1-212-897-7660 1-888-50-FOREX (36739) Just a decade ago,
More informationCommodity Futures and Options
Understanding Commodity Futures and Options for Producers of Livestock and Livestock Products CIS 1100 The Authors Larry D. Makus, C. Wilson Gray and Neil R. Rimbey* Introduction Risk associated with an
More informationVolatility Tracker: No Surprises in Gold
11/22/2 : No Surprises in Gold 1. Comment News-making price changes in gold [11] have not been accompanied by any particularly noteworthy behavior in the options market. While it would be wrong to suggest
More informationTHE UNDAMENTALS AND ECHNIQUES RADING OMMODITY PREADS. c s
c s THE UNDAMENTALS AND ECHNIQUES OF RADING OMMODITY PREADS The purpose of this booklet is to give you a better understanding of various aspects of spread trading in the futures market. Center for Futures
More informationAdjusting the Iron Condor Kerry W. Given, Ph.D. (Dr. Duke) Parkwood Capital, LLC
Adjusting the Iron Condor Kerry W. Given, Ph.D. (Dr. Duke) Parkwood Capital, LLC Disclosures and Disclaimers Buying and selling stocks and options involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors.
More informationLarry Williams Indicators
Larry Williams Indicators Larry Williams Indicators - Williams COT NetPositions OI... 2 Larry Williams Indicators - Williams COT Comm Index... 3 Larry Williams Indicators - Williams COT LrgSpec Index...
More informationThe basic concepts of grain price options are
Grain Price Options Basics File A2-66 December 2009 www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm The basic concepts of grain price options are discussed below. Methods of using grain price options to market grain are
More informationIntroduction to Options Trading. Patrick Ceresna, MX Instructor
Introduction to Options Trading Patrick Ceresna, MX Instructor 1 Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this presentation reflect those of the individual authors/presenters only and do not represent
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team January, 2 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities
More informationUsing Futures Markets to Manage Price Risk for Feeder Cattle: Advanced Strategies (AEC 2013-03) March 2013
Using Futures Markets to Manage Price Risk for Feeder Cattle: Advanced Strategies (AEC 2013-03) March 2013 Kenny Burdine 1 Introduction: Price volatility in feeder cattle markets has greatly increased
More informationFutures Investment Series. No. 2. The Mechanics of the Commodity Futures Markets. What They Are and How They Function. Mount Lucas Management Corp.
Futures Investment Series S P E C I A L R E P O R T No. 2 The Mechanics of the Commodity Futures Markets What They Are and How They Function Mount Lucas Management Corp. The Mechanics of the Commodity
More informationWill ARC Allow Farmers to Cancel Their 2014 Crop Insurance (Updated)? 1
Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial
More informationCoffee prices fall but Brazilian production estimated lower
Coffee prices fall but production estimated lower Coffee prices continued their decline as speculation over the current 2015/16 crop suggests that the market has no immediate supply concerns. Indeed, one
More informationOctober 1, 2015. Contents. 1. Recap. 2. Physical Market Rates. 3. Arrivals. 4. Weather. 5. Charts and Outlook. 6. Disclaimer
Contents 1. Recap 2. Physical Market Rates 3. Arrivals 4. Weather 5. Charts and Outlook 6. Disclaimer 1 Recap Indian markets NCDEX Net % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Soybean OCT5 3450
More information