O potencial solar no globalmente e no Brasil

Transcription

1 O potencial solar no globalmente e no Brasil Jacinto Estima Research Center for Renewable Energy Mapping and Assessment Masdar Institute of Science and Technology Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates I Seminário Internacional Palmas Solar 2015 Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil 30 de Junho 2015

2 POTENTIAL

3 Potential Renewable energy technical potential as defined in the report U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis represents the achievable energy generation of a particular technology given system performance, topographic limitations, environmental, and land-use constraints. Source:

4 Potential How competitive is it? How much can it cost? Where can it be harvested? How much power? Where is the resource? Source:

5 PhotoVoltaics (PV) grid-tied and off grid PV produces electricity works anywhere no tracking required electrochemical storage possible Courtesy of RENAC

6 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Only for Sunbelt areas with high DNI Tracking is mandatory Hybrid operation possible (with CCP) Molten salt storage possible Courtesy of RENAC

7 Three component radiation model Global radiation is composed of direct radiation (coming directly from sun, casting shadows) diffuse radiation (scattered, without clear direction), and, reflected radiation (albedo).

8 8

9 UAE Solar Atlas Maps: Final Results

10 UAE Solar Atlas Maps: Final Results

11 Version 1.0 launched in January 2013 Version 2.0 launched in January Global Spatial Data Infrastructure Enables users to visualize information on renewable energy resources and overlay additional information (Population, topography, etc.) As of January, 2015, 67 countries and more than 50 institutes and partners were contributing to the initiative

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13 1,000 datasets. 45+ national atlases.

14 PRIVATE SECTOR EFFORT Local measurements Data bankability Investor s interest Existing local measurements Zoning Data quality PUBLIC SECTOR EFFORT

15 3TIER GHI global dataset

16 HelioClim3v4-MC GHI dataset

17 Meteotest GHI global dataset

18 INPE 10km GHI Brazil dataset

19 NASA 1 Degree DNI global dataset

20 INPE 10km DNI Brazil dataset

21 Palmas GHI and DNI GHI DNI kwh/m2/day kwh/m2/day

22 Technical potential

23 Technical constrains Topography (technology dependent) System performance (technology dependent): Configuration System losses modules, transmission, Inverters, etc. (PV) Solar field, Heat transmission, power cycle, etc. (CSP) How much of the radiation are actually being converted into electricity (%)?????? Protected areas Land Use and Land Cover Distance to infrastructures (grid network, transportation network, water, etc.) Water availability

24 Protected areas

25 Land Use / Land Cover

26 Demonstration on ECOWAS within GEOSS AIP-6 Presented at the GEO-X Ministerial Summit Geneva, Jan th,

27 Economic and Market potential

28 Costs elements of a PV system Hard Balance of System Costs Racking, mounting hardware Inverters/Trackers Wiring Monitoring equipment Shipping Land Modules, R&D for modules Soft Balance of System Costs Business process costs Financing Installation Customer acquisition Permitting Interconnection and inspection System developer profit System design and engineering

29 Costs PV Highlights in 2014 Solar PV module prices 75% lower than 2009 Total installed costs of utility-scale PV systems fallen by 29% to 65% (depending on region) Global average of LCOE of utility-scale solar PV has fallen by half in four years

30 IRENA Costing Alliance: Renewable Power Competing

31 The levelised cost of electricity from utility-scale renewable technologies, 2010 and 2014 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database

32 PV module prices VS efficiency

33 Wind and Solar Projections (IEA World Energy Outlook)

34 Global Growth in PV Capacity

35 Installed RE capacity by region

36 Module and BoS Soft-Costs Vary Global module & hardware prices have declined 60% to 70% in the last two years but soft balance of system prices have not: BoS costs in Q were around three times higher in the United States than in Germany by some measures. Elements present in countries with balanced price declines: Competitive markets, skilled labor force, good information. Well-designed policies: incentives aligned with market needs. Tax policies, local requirements for permitting and inspection, installation costs, and customer acquisition costs have substantial effects on PV system costs in residential and commercial buildings and hence on the growth of PV markets. Future cost reduction in the balance of system costs soft costs and reduced finance costs

37 Soft Costs for Residential PV in Germany Are ~$2.7/W Lower than in the U.S. Total soft costs for residential PV in Germany, including margin, are just 19% of the implied soft costs for U.S. residential PV ($0.62/W vs. $3.34/W) Source: Joachim Seel, Galen Barbose, and Ryan Wiser, Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States?: A Scoping Analysis, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 9/2012 * Notes: US module and inverter prices are based on average factory gate prices for Q Q as reported by GTM/SEIA with an adder of 10% to account for supply chain costs. Inverter efficiency is assumed to be 85%.

38 Costs for Customer Acquisition, permitting, Installation Labor and Overhead are Key Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser at LBNL (Feb. 2013), Why are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States?

39 CSP cost breakdown Note: Total installed cost breakdown for 100 MW parabolic through and solar tower CSP plant in South Africa

40 Barriers: MAJOR COMPONENTS OF SOFT COSTS ARE DUE TO regulatory or market factors that are hard to address Profit and Overhead (rent, utilities, inventory costs, insurance, administrative fees and general administrative costs) Installation Labor (lack of standard system design, scarcity of skills or competition in labor markets, requirements to utilize more highly skilled labor than needed, lack of easy-to-install systems) Customer Acquisition (development of clear and accurate product information, marketing, advertising, system design, arrangement of financing for which building owners qualify, sales calls, bid preparation, site visits, and collection of payments) Permitting and Inspection (inconsistent national, provincial and local regulations; labor costs of completing permits; costs of idle labor while waiting for inspections to be conducted; costs to connect building PV systems with utility distribution lines)

41 Potential Solutions: Target the Most Important Soft Costs for Policy Action and Innovative Financing The biggest targets for reducing soft costs of PV systems are: Customer Acquisition Costs (residential buildings) Related to availability of information on PV options Related to quality/availability of energy audits including PV Installation Labor Costs (residential and small commercial) Related to labor productivity (training, capacity building) Related to ease of installing devices Fees and Labor for Permits and Inspection Related to number of forms, complexity of regulations Overhead and Profit Margins Related to market competition (multiple available contractors) Related to price supports (keeping pace with cost reductions)

42 Potential Solutions: Policies That Target Opportunities for Soft Cost Reductions Promote competitive markets and reduce price supports in line with equipment costs to reduce supply chain margins (profit and overhead). Streamline installation and improve vocational education and training to reduce labor costs. Develop standards, market information exchange databases, and embed PV cost calculators in audit processes to reduce customer acquisition costs. Address policy and regulatory barriers to reduce costs of permitting and inspecting, connecting PV systems. Innovate financing to manage high up-front costs of installing PV systems in ways that reduce margins, labor costs, customer acquisition costs and permitting and inspection costs in tandem. Provincial National

43 Potential Solutions: Financial Mechanisms to Reduce Up-Front Residential PV Costs and Acquire Customers Third-party ownership models Reduces the up-front costs through discounts on bulk purchases Eliminates operations and maintenance responsibilities Property tax assessment models Allows long-term financing at lower interest rates with taxes as collateral Allows transfer of system ownership when the property is sold Monetizing the PV environmental value Links sale of renewable energy certificates (SREC) to national or international carbon markets Shared-ownership models Allows for communities to jointly finance large PV systems Utility-based models Allows for the finance of new, large-scale, local PV projects Provides benefits of economies of scale

44 Potential Solutions: Innovate Ownership Structure through Leases and Purchased Power Agreements Experienced private firms install PV systems on many roofs, reducing overall costs for customer acquisition, permitting, and installation labor. Lease Option: Customer pays for use of PV equipment. PPA Option: Customer pays for solar energy produced. Customers see immediate savings on their electric bills without the effort of choosing and installing a PV system themselves. Suppliers earn good rates of return on PV system investment. Finance companies link investors with private firms: Firms sell service agreements to customers and install equipment. Finance companies charge a fee for processing the service agreements and for monitoring and maintaining the equipment. Buyout options are available to building owners when the term of the service agreement ends or when owners sell their house or office.

45 Potential Solutions: Roof Leasing Model Applied by Narni Municipality in Italy Public Administration and Roof Leasing: Italian Legislative decree No. 28/2011 states «[ ] public authorities can grant third persons leasehold estate in order to enable them to install RES plants for electricity generation, pursuant to legislative decree 2006, April 12 No This provision also applies to military areas and army sites [ ]» As a result of this decree, many Italian municipalities started initiatives providing private entrepreneurs with the access to roofs (e.g., Narni Municipality). Main Features Public notice seeks private sector expressions of interest; Annual payment for leasehold estate right is based on the amount of installed capacity; Private party pays for roof maintenance and for design, construction and management of the PV plant; and Municipality owns the PV plant, manages RES subsidies, and sells electricity at expiration of the 20- year contract.

46 Potential Solutions: Long-Term Investments to Reduce Installation Labor Costs Installation labor is large portion of soft costs for all PV projects Larger systems benefit from construction labor scale economies Training & Certification Protect Safety, Improve Performance AND Reduce Total Costs Training, Professional (international) certifications Standardization of equipment and designs, development of local firms big opportunities Source: Ardani, K et al. (2012) WREF 2012: Benchmarking non-hardware balance of system costs for PV systems in the United States using a bottom-up approach

47 Potential Solutions: Streamlining Design and Installation Processes Use of international standards to design and install PV systems: Reduces transaction costs Provides access to best practices worldwide Assures quality Increases workforce efficiency Develops local capacity for designers and installers Provides a detailed technical basis for laws and regulations Supports public and private tendering processes Gives confidence to financing sources (bankable projects)

48 Potential Solutions: Modular Assembly, Plug-and-Play Design Efforts Reduce Installation Labor & Overhead Cost Micro-inverter, mounting and grounding assembly are incorporated into each panel. Panels snap together with no extra wiring.

49 Potential Solutions: Italy s Catalogue of Building- Integrated PV Options Reduces Information Costs and Customer Acquisition Costs, Boosts Competition The Catalogue makes it easy to find the right technology with samples of innovative buildingintegrated PV solutions that have been granted a higher feed-in tariff: Innovative modules: Flexible PV modules Rigid PV modules Thin film layer on rigid support Photovoltaic tiles Transparent modules Innovative components Facades

50 Potential Solutions: Solarize Initiative Reduces Soft Costs in U.S. Communities through Group Sales) Solarize model at community level targets residential PV challenges: Costs: high up-front costs Complexity: PV system purchase process with hard choices on technical issues Customer inertia: No clear deadline for customer action Basic program elements: Competitive contractor selection process led by community volunteers Community-led outreach and education by a trusted local organization Limited-time offer of just six months vs. typical two-year period from initial customer inquiry to system installation Source: US Department of Energy (2012) THE SOLARIZE GUIDEBOOK: A community guide to collective purchasing of residential PV systems

51 Environment CO2 emissions

52 Energy security (world diversity)

53 Energy security (south America diversity)

54 Jobs in selected countries in 2013

55 Global RE employment by technology

56 Opportunities for Progress Promote innovative financing mechanisms to: Encourage firms that specialize in installation of building PV Make it easier for building owners to decide to install PV Grow the PV building market and achieve scale economies Develop cooperative initiatives to reduce installation labor costs: International standards for easily-installed PV modules Self-guided distance learning tools for building contractors Better information to help building owners select contractors Cooperate to promote low-net-energy city building standards: Build on existing networks of low-carbon communities to provide the demand-pull that will build scale and lower costs

57 Analytic Issues to Consider How much new solar capacity might appear in regional generating plans by 2030? What enhancements to the power grid might make sense as solar capacity grow? Would distributed solar projects create a need for enhancements to local distribution grids? How can we optimize the grid for cost savings, electric supply security and sustainable growth?

58 Facilitating Variable RE Zoning: renewable power development zones to cluster development and plan cost-effective transmission links to load centers Planning: integrated resource planning at country and regional level to incorporate a greater share of costeffective renewables Enabling: open markets, reduce financial risks to boost renewable power investment Capacity Building: to plan and operate power grids with higher share of renewables

59 Thank you for listening Jacinto Estima