CLP and Renewable Energy in Asia

Transcription

1 CLP and Renewable Energy in Asia May 2010 Andrew Brandler CEO CLP Holdings

2 Disclaimer This presentation contains some comments about future events including our expectations about the performance of CLP Group's business. The comments are not audited and are based on a number of factors that we cannot control. We cannot be certain that the comments will be accurate or complete and so they should not be relied on. As circumstances change we will update our website at and, where relevant, notify the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 1

3 Global Energy Challenge How to provide energy necessary for social and economic development, yet avoid serious environmental impacts? 2

4 CLP Group Portfolio Cross Regional Presence INDIA 2,421 MW Largest foreign investor in electricity industry Top investor in wind Diversified portfolio: - Coal - Gas - Wind CHINESE MAINLAND 6,579 MW Largest external investor in electricity industry Diversified portfolio - Coal - Nuclear - Hydro - Wind - Biomass SOUTHEAST ASIA 853MW Largest shareholder in EGCO, Thailand after EGAT JV with Mitsubishi in Thailand and Taiwan Development of 2 coal projects in Vietnam HONG KONG 6,908 MW Vertically integrated power company - Generation - Transmission & Distribution - Retail Largest HK Power Utility million customers - Supplying 80% of HK s population AUSTRALIA 3,188 MW Largest foreign investor in electricity industry No. 2 Private Generator No. 3 Private Retailer 3

5 Our Manifesto to Climate Change CLP s Climate Vision 2050 Towards The Future CO 2 Emissions Intensity Non-carbon Emitting Renewable Energy 2004 <1% RE (kg CO 2 /kwh) 11% RE 15% Non-carbon Nuclear 2010 ~5% 0.8 (kg CO 2 /kwh) 20% Non-carbon By Natural Gas (kg CO 2 /kwh) Clean Coal >45% >75% 0.45 (kg CO 2 /kwh) 0.2 (kg CO 2 /kwh) Ongoing Review of Target Energy Efficiency & Conservation 4

6 Climate Vision 2050 Five major initiatives to implement our climate commitment Renewable Energy Largest external investor in RE both in China and India Exploring solar energy projects with first project in Thailand to start construction in June Secured Environmental Permit to develop a 200MW offshore wind farm in Hong Kong Natural Gas Participating in measures to bring additional, long-term supplies of natural gas to HK to move to a +/- 50% target for Hong Kong electricity supply Commissioned a new 420MW CCGT plant in Australia which is amongst the most efficient fossil-fuelled power station in Australia Nuclear Power Obtained approval to extend the Daya Bay joint venture through to 2034 Looking to extend our involvement in nuclear energy in China Clean Coal Technology Using latest efficient technology for any new coal-fired plant that we build Looking at ways to reduce emissions at Yallourn in Victoria, Australia through experimental coal drying and CCS projects Energy Efficiency and Conservation Carried out over 800 energy audits for large customers in Hong Kong and extended such services services to Hong Kong-owned manufacturers in Guangdong Offer energy efficiency services to our customers in Hong Kong and Australia 5

7 Powering Asia Responsibly Different Energies, Different Markets Different Energies Wind and hydro power making the major contribution to the growth of RE capacity in Asia Solar gradually moving into commercial scale deployment Large-scale deployment of clean coal technology, absent significant policy and technological development, is unlikely in the near to medium future Maximum Feed-in Tarrif Available (USD/MWh Different markets offer different opportunities Wide variances in national or local policy support Solar Tariff Wind Hydro Bioenergy Renewable Energy Targets 10% 10% 20% 20% China India Thailand Australia Hong Kong Indonesia 2% 25% 20% 15% 10.60% 10% 5% 0% Renewable Energy Targets (various deadlines) - There are no national feed-in tariffs for Solar in China at present - Indonesia and Hong Kong do not offer feed-in tariffs for renewable generation at present - In Australia, wholesale tariff in Victoria, South Australia, Queensland, New South Wales and Tasmania is determined by National Electricity Market 6

8 Our Footprints Renewables Portfolio ~2,000 Equity MW CHINA total 1,378 MW Operational Wind 534 MW Hydro 156 MW Biomass 12 MW Changdao 27/12 MW (w) Weihai I & II 69/31 MW (w) Nanao II 45/11 MW (w) Shuangliao I&II 99/49 MW (w) Rongcheng 49/24 MW (w) Datong 49/24 MW (w) Laizhou 41/18 MW (w) Changling II 50/22 MW (w) 3 Shandong 149/73 MW (w) Qujiagou 49/12 MW (w) Mazongshan 49/12 MW (w) CGN Wind 246 MW (w) Huaiji 125/106 MW (h) Dali Yang_er 50/50 MW (h) Boxing Biomass 15/12 MW (b) Construction Wind 346 MW Hydro 330 MW Rongcheng II /III 99/49 MW (w) 3 Shandong 149/73 MW (w) Qian an 50/50 MW (w) Nanao III 15/4 MW (w) CGN Wind 170 MW (w) Jiangbian 330/330 MW (h) India China Thailand Australia INDIA total 446 MW Operational Khandke Wind Samana Wind-I Samana Wind-II Saundatti Theni Construction Samana Wind-II Saundatti Andhra Lake Theni 50/50 MW (w) 50/50 MW (w) 38/38 MW (w) 21/21 MW (w) 21/21 MW (w) 12/12 MW (w) 62/62 MW (w) 114/114 MW (w) 78/78 MW (w) AUSTRALIA total 142 MW Operational Bluff Point 65/33 MW (w) Cathedral Rocks 66/16 MW (w) Studland Bay 75/37 MW (w) Construction Waterloo 111/56 MW (w) THAILAND total 60 MW Operational Small Biomass 33/3 MW (b) Construction Solar project 55/21 MW (s) Nam Theun 2 1,087/36 MW (h) Wind projects (w) Hydro projects (h) Biomass projects (b) Solar project (s) Station Name Gross MW / CLP Equity MW 7

9 CLP Group Renewables Portfolio Equity Capacity Wind (1,468 MW) 22 wind farms in China (464 MW) Strategic investor in CGN Wind in China (416MW) 4 wind farms in Australia (142 MW) Hydro (522 MW) 3 hydropower projects in China (486MW) 1 hydropower project in Laos (through EGCO) (36MW) Biomass (15 MW) 1 plant in China (12MW) 3 plants in Thailand (through EGCO) (3MW) 6 wind farms in India (446 MW) Solar (21 MW) 1 solar project in Thailand (21MW) Various solar opportunities in Australia and India Geographical and fuel diversity 8

10 China Our Portfolio Largest external investor in the RE sector in China Repositioning of our portfolio towards low carbon generation CLP has 1,378 Equity MW in operation or under construction 31 Mar 10 cumulative investment of ~HK$3.9 billion with total commitment of ~HK$4.4 billion Included strategic stake in CGN Wind Policy Target Renewable Energy Law provides for robust regulatory framework and ancillary infrastructure facilitation NDRC targets increase in renewable consumption to 15% by 2020 XINJIANG TIBET Wind projects Hydro projects Biomass project GANSU QINGHAI SHAANXI HENAN JIANG SU ANHUI SICHUAN HUBEI SHAN CHONGQING GHAI ZHEJIANG HUNAN JIANGXI GUIZHOU FUJIAN YUNNAN GUANGXI GUANGDONG HEILONGJIANG JILIN LIAONING INNER BEIJI MONGO NG LIA TIANJIN HEBEI NINGXIA SHANXI SHANDONG HAINAN Disciplined growth in wind energy Continue to develop majority-owned projects Build out expansion of existing minorityowned project sites Strategic acquisition in CGN Wind 9

11 India Our Portfolio Largest wind investor / developer in India (foreign or domestic) A portfolio of 446MW wholly-owned wind projects and significant development pipeline 180MW in operation 152MW commissioning by MW commissioning by Mar 10 cumulative investment of ~HK$1.3 billion with total commitment of ~HK$1.8 billion Government policies RE Law nationwide review of industry with long-term targets for Renewable Purchase Obligations, Tariff-Fixing mechanisms, inter-state trading New Generation Based Incentive Scheme provides additional top up tariff for wind projects National Solar Mission to provide attractive framework for Solar Thermal and PV projects Theni Wind projects 10

12 Australia and Thailand Australia Thailand Established R40s with Hydro Tasmania A portfolio of 142 Equity MW 3 operational wind farms and 1 wind farm under construction Policies The Government implemented the Renewable Energy Target Scheme to ensure that 20% of Australia s electricity supply will come from renewable sources by 2020 Legislative change to split target between large RE projects and small RE projects pending Formed a joint venture with EGCO and Mitsubishi Corp to build a 73MW dc (55MW ac ) solar project in Thailand The project is one of the largest solar photovoltaic projects in the world Policies Renewable energy policy with an aim to increase the use of renewable energy to end user to 20% of total energy consumption by 2022 Tariff based on energy payment with adder tariff given for 7 to 10 years from COD Income tax incentives and preferential treatment on import and export duties 11

13 Technologies Massive amounts of stable funding needed for the development and demonstration of technologies Wind Hydro Solar Geothermal Biomass Carbon Capture and Storage Best renewable energy option for now Price of wind turbine are commoditised, technology continuing to improve Challenges: Sites, grid connection, grid capacity Small to medium (up to ~300MW) better option Challenges: Sites, safety, remoteness of location, grid connection Expensive; solar PV has low capacity factor Costs expected to reduce over medium term Energy storage under development Appropriate as baseload generation Heat-to-electricity conversion efficiency lower than conventional generation High exploration costs and resource uncertainties More appropriate for managing agricultural waste too many challenges to make it suitable for electricity generation on a widespread basis CCS can help reduce emissions significantly Construction costs 5 times more than conventional plant Inconceivable without government support / high and firm price of carbon 12

14 Generation Cost Today & 2030 Today 2030 Nuclear Nuclear Gas Gas Coal Coal Tidal Barrage Tidal Barrage Tidal Current Tidal Current Wave Wave Wind onshore Wind onshore Wind offshore Wind offshore Solar PV Solar PV Large Hydro Large Hydro Small Hydro Small Hydro Conventional Geothermal Conventional Geothermal Hot Dry Rock Hot Dry Rock Biomass Biomass Levelized Cost (USD / MWh) Levelized Cost (USD / MWh) Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2006 & 2008, IEA Energy Technology Essentials Nuclear Power Conventional generation technologies remain competitive in short to medium term Some RE such as onshore wind are close to competitive under favourable conditions such as good resources In general RE are more expensive than conventional generation today and they need appropriate policy and technology advancement to support their deployment in coming years In particular, solar photovoltaic (PV) could become attractive vs conventional generation between 2015 and 2020, depending on the actual cost reduction and technological advancement path achieved by the industry 13

15 Carbon Markets Market Uncertainty Practical difficulties in the CDM process CER prices are volatile CER Dec 10 contract prices fell from c. 24 to c. 8 between Jul 08 and Feb 09 and now stand at c. 13 As a consequence of the price volatility, the CDM has not been a reliable source of revenue Uncertainty on whether there will be any CDM program post Carbon Price Currently there are benchmarks for CERs up to These can easily be sourced from the European Climate Exchange (ECX) or BlueNext But there are no post 2012 futures contracts on ECX or BlueNext Market signs are bearish E.g. the EUA-CER spread for Dec 12 futures contract are sharply higher than those for spot E.g. the Dec 12 contract spread continues be higher than that of Dec 10 As at 27 April s close the EUA vs. CER spread for: the Dec10 CERs was 1.72 ( vs 13.87) the Dec11 CERs was 2.43 ( vs 13.60) the Dec12 CERs 3.35 ( vs ) Apr- 05 Oct- 05 Apr- 06 Oct- 06 Apr- 07 Oct- 07 Apr- 08 Oct- 08 Apr- 09 Oct- 09 Apr- 10 Source: ECX; Bloomberg EUA ( /t) CER ( /t) EUA-CER Spread We need a clear, long-term stable price of carbon to support renewable energy in Asia 14

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18 Tariff and cost spectrum for projects Tariff in US / kwhr India wind PRC Wind Thai Wind India current short-term merchant tariffs Australia Wind Thai Wholesale Tariff India PRC Wholesale Wholesale Tariff Tariff Australia Wholesale Tariff Solar Projects still far to compete with wind Project Cost in USD Mn. / MW Feed in Tariffs at US per kwhr Project Cost ~ US$ 3 4 Mn per MW Note: No CDM benefits are included 17

19 General Observations General Regulations Observations drive RE - not markets& Ending Remarks Wind tariffs are not at grid parity Cost reduction for wind has slowed Less attractive onshore sites and cost of offshore installation is still very high Cost of solar power is off the chart - literally... Downward cost trajectory is not infinite Even if cost of cells/silicon goes to zero - there is still the 20%-25% cost of steel/fixtures Market mechanisms do not produce more RE RE is only possible through government regulatory regime that is Predictable Simple And, of course, has a high enough tariff Designing RE regulatory support through artificial markets is not very efficient REC market in Australia Uncertainty on REC supply and demand, and the future price of RECs Limits the number of eligible developers CER/CDM markets by UNFCCC Uncertainty on registration process and post-2012 value - could be zero! Numerous inefficiencies (cost of consultants, etc) 18