Research programme. Centre of Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO) Växjö University

Transcription

1 Research programme Centre of Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO) Växjö University 1

2 Contents Page Preface Research programme 4 Background.. 4 Main priorities and puposes..5 The research group and its activities.6 Evaluations of CAFO 8 Main fields of study. 8 The economic and demographic consequences of immigration 8 The development and use of evaluation methodologies.. 10 Welfare policies and institutions.. 11 Time allocation over the life course. 12 Objectives and implementation The staff at CAFO Publications by CAFO researchers 16 International publications 16 Swedish publications 25 CAFO-researchers quoted by other researchers 35 2

3 Preface The Centre of Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO) includes a number of economists and some statisticans at Växjö university. CAFO`s main research fields are 1) labour economics, especially the evaluation of labour market policies, 2) the demographic and economic consequences of immigration to Sweden and the immigrants position on the labour market, 3) the consequences of welfare programmes and institutions on labour supply and 4) the determinants of household s time and income allocation over the lifecourse. The research fields are strongly interrelated. The research is of high interest for the matters of labour supply and to finance Sweden s public welfare system in the future. In close relation to these research fields there is also research in statistics/econometrics. The staff at CAFO comprises of more than 20 individuals of which 4 full professors in economics, 1 full professor in statistics/econometrics, 3 associate professors in economics, 5 assistant professors in economics with PhD-degree, 12 PhD-students in economics and 1 PhD-students in statistics. This report is an presentation of CAFO s research programme. The report also includes a list of publications by CAFO-members since 1995 and a list showing to what extent CAFO-members have been quoted by other reseachers in international scientific journals. The individuals mentioned below have participated to complete this report. Växjö September 2005 Dominique Anxo Jan Ekberg Harald Niklasson Professor in economics Professor in economics Professor in economics Coordinator of CAFO CAFO Växjö university CAFO Växjö university Växjö university Mårten Palme Professor in economics CAFO Växjö university Ghazi Shukur Professor in statistics/econometics CAFO Växjö university 3

4 1. The research programme 1. Background The Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO) was established in 1987 by a number of economists at Växjö University on the basis of research activities initiated in the early 1970s. Since its creation, CAFO s main fields of study had been 1) labour economics, especially the development and implementation of methodologies for the evaluation of labour market policies, and 2) the demographic and economic consequences of the immigration to Sweden. During the last decade the number of CAFO s researchers has steadily increased. In 1999, Växjö University received full university status which resulted in a further expansion of CAFO and a widening of its research including additional topics, such as 3) the consequences of welfare arrangements and institutions on labour supply and 4) the determinants of households time and income allocation over the life course. In close relation to these research fields there is also research in econometrics. At the time when CAFO was established Växjö university was not a fully-fledged university. Therefore up to 1999, the university only had very small financial resources to support the research at CAFO. Today, Växjö university has better possibilities to support CAFO. Therefore CAFO s research has mainly been build up with the help external grants from various Swedish and international founding bodies. CAFO researchers have received grants from 1) Swedish Research Councils (the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation; the Swedish Research Council; the Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation; and the Swedish Councils for (i) Social Research, (ii) Working Life and Social Research, and (iii) Planning and Coordination of Research), 2) a number of Swedish Ministries and Central Administrative Boards, and even from 3) the EU Commission for the active participation in European research networks. Many of these grants have been earmarked for specific projects. In the late 1980s and the early 1990s, CAFO benefited from a programme grant during 6 years (received in competition with other Swedish university departments) from the Expert Group for Labour Market Policy Evaluation Studies (EFA) at the Swedish Ministry of Labour. For some time, this programme grant made the research group in Växjö less dependent on grants for specific projects. Actually, it was the acquisition of this grant that triggered the formal establishment of CAFO in 1987 and paved the way for the subsequent expansion of its activities. Today there is a strong need for the reestablishment of an integration-promoting research programme involving a joint responsibility for the fulfilment of joint commitments. In september 2004 CAFO made an application to the Research Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS) for a programme grant in the field Labour supply and provision of manpower. CAFO`s application is in competition with several applications from other university departments. The applications are now considered by an international expertgroup appointed by FAS. Before Växjö university received full university status in 1999 there were no PhD-programme at Växjö university. It was a problem for us. So in 1990 CAFO made an agreement with the Departement of Economics at Lund university. If there were talanted students in economics in Växjö with an interest in research they could participate in PhD-programme in economics in Lund and at the same time live in Växjö and participate in CAFO. Commuting times between Växjö and Lund by train is short. CAFO had to find external financial resources for these PhD-students so they have time for studies and pay the set up and and their use of the dataset of importance for their doctoral thesis. These PhD students could choose the subject for there doctoral thesis in CAFO s research fields. Senior CAFO-researchers partly acted as supervisors (assistant supervisors). Some of the seminars took place in Växjö. In this way we achieved 4 PhD-degree and 1 licentiate s degree. These individuals have then made academic career at CAFO. Three of them have now achieved the position as associate professor 4

5 (docent) in economics at Växjö university and one of them has recently applied for the position as associate professor at Växjö university. Since 1999 we have PhD-education of our own. Our PhD-education is in coorporation with other universities in a network in South Sweden for PhD-education in economics. The following universities participate in the network: Gothenburg university, Jönköping international business school, Karlstad university, Linköping university, Växjö university and Örebro university. The purpose of the network is to give a high-quality PhD-programme. Coordinaters of the network are professor Jan Ekberg Växjö university and professor Lennart Hjalmarsson Gothenbourg university. For more information about the network see At present, 12 doctoral candidates participate in the PhD programme in Economics at Växjö University. This programme, strongly related to CAFO s activities, has drawn a lot of attention. There were 75 applicants, together representing all Swedish universities and even many universities abroad, for the 12 positions advertised. One doctorate (Mårten Bjellerup) has already achieved his PhDdegree. Ali Ahmed, Maria Nilsson and Mikael Ohlson have achieved licentiate s degrees. It is expected that 3-4 PhD-degrees will be achieved during the next year. 2. Main priorities and purposes While remaining based on the the main objective stated above, the research programme has to be clearly delimited. It should concentrate on tasks for which CAFO has some comparative advantages. The overall objective of the present research programme is to analyse the socio-economic determinants of labour supply and provision of manpower in Sweden and to examine how and to which extent institutional frameworks and orientation of labour market and welfare policies do affect the patterns of labour market integration of various socio-economic groups. In recent years, prominent parts of CAFO s research have been aimed at elucidating the demographic and economic consequences of the immigration into Sweden. Obviously this research area is strongly related to labour supply and provision of manpower issues. The high unemployment and the low rate of labour market participation among immigrants are universally acknowledged to involve serious social problems, as well as a substantial waste of potential manpower resources. This waste also makes it more difficult to finance public welfare systems, especially in the context of an aging population. Several CAFO publications have yielded widely recognized contributions to our knowledge of the nature and consequences of these evils. The reasons for choosing research on immigration as one of the cornerstones of the present research programme are reinforced by a report delivered by an international team of researchers in spring This team was given the task to evaluate the Swedish research on International Migration and Ethnic Relations (IMER). The evaluators, who were appointed by the Research Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS) acting on behalf of the Swedish government, pointed out CAFO as one of the leading Swedish research groups in this area (see section 4 below). Furthermore the evaluators, in their final recommendations emphasized the need for more research on policy programmes intended to facilitate the integration of immigrants in the labour market. The few evaluation studies, carried out by CAFO and other Swedish institutes, on labour market policy measures targeted to immigrants appear to be rather limited in scope and coverage. Actually, further development in this area necessitates the linking-together of, on one hand, research examining the conditions and problems faced by immigrants, and, on the other hand, research aiming at the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for the evaluation of labour market and welfare policies. Such efforts will constitute an important element of the present research programme. While exploiting CAFO s relative advantages, this is clearly in line with the leading idea and main objective stated above. 5

6 Other central elements of the current research programme will reflect the crucial role for the labour supply and manpower provision played by (i) retirement behaviours in the context of an aging population, (ii) the social inclusion or exclusion of individuals and groups facing specific labour market conditions and problems, and (iii) the determinants of households time allocation behaviour in a gender and life course perspective, especially the factors affecting households choices between market work (or active job search) and other activities. Apparently, these research orientations are strongly interrelated. For example, the degree and nature of labour market participation reflecting, among other things, time allocation patterns in a life course perspective may markedly differ between individuals and groups facing different labour market conditions and problems, the character and consequences of which are dependent, inter alia, on the prevailing labour market and welfare policies. Furthermore, all the topics mentioned can be linked to immigration-related issues. Some of the vulnerable groups mentioned in a political context, so called target groups may consist of immigrants. However, some of the conditions and problems faced by immigrants may be very similar to the ones faced by many native-born Swedes. Thus, the recognition of the kinds of interrelations indicated will guard against the risk for the different aspects, and groupidentifying term (such as immigrants ), to give rise to the use of artificial and potentially misleading demarcation lines in the research to be carried out. As shown by the list of publications attached to this application, the research pursued by members of the present CAFO team has yielded contributions related to all the aspects of labour supply and manpower provision mentioned. However, existing possibilities to combine different aspects and methodological approaches seem to be unsatisfactorily exploited. The fulfilment of the leading idea an and main objective stated above should involve, as far as possible, the use of a policy-and evaluationoriented approach as a link to promote coherence and coordination. 3. The research group and its activities The CAFO team includes five professors: Dominique Anxo, Jan Ekberg, Harald Niklasson and Mårten Palme in Economics and Ghazi Shukur in Statistics/Econometrics. Jan Ekberg and Harald Niklasson belong to the original group that started its research activities back in the 1970s and established CAFO in 1987 (see section 1 above). The other three professors were recruited after Växjö University received full university status in 1999: Mårten Palme and Ghazi Shukur in 2002 and Dominique Anxo in Of course, these recruitments have meant significant improvements in CAFO s access to relevant expertise, including methodological skills in Statistics/Econometrics. Besides the professors mentioned, the group includes seven other CAFO researchers holding PhD degrees: Lars Andersson, Lars Behrenz, Håkan Locking, Mats Hammarstedt, Jonas Månsson, Dan- Olof Rooth and Osvaldo Salas. The five first-mentioned and Osvaldo Salas are employed as senior lecturers in economics at Växjö University. Dan-Olof Rooth, who is presently employed as senior lecturer at Kalmar University after taking his PhD degree on the basis of studies pursued in close, and continued, cooperation with Jan Ekberg and others in the Växjö group. Lars Behrenz, Mats Hammarstedt and Dan-Olof Rooth has been promoted associate professor ( docent ) (An additional participant in the work is Lennart Delander one of the main instigators of CAFO and doctor of honour at Växjö University who retired some years ago but has remained an active researcher.) CAFO also includes 13 PhD-students (of which 12 in economics and 1 in statistics). The staff at CAFO is presented below (page 16). There are often guestresearchers at CAFO. During the last years the following individuals have been guestreserchers at CAFO: Associate professor Orlanda Mella Alberto Hurado university Chile, Professor Hans Trautwein Oldenburg university Tyskland, docent Mark Voorneveld Tilbury university Holland/ Handelshögskolan Stockholm and associate professor Jan Saarela Åbo Akademi Finland. During 2005/2006 will PhD Ali Almasri Birmingham university England be guestresearcher during autumn 2005 and professor Lennart Flood Gothenburg university Sweden be guestresearcher (20% of full time) during autumn 2005 and spring

7 CAFO s dependency on resources earmarked for specific projects also causes some difficulties for the group members to make effective use of their many contacts with researchers at other universities. This is especially valid for CAFO s present participation in a multidisciplinary European research network called TLM.NET, which is an acronym for the programme theme Managing Social Risks though Transitional Labour Markets. The network, which is supported by the EU, involves a large number (around 20) of European research institutions or institutes. It emanates from previous European network projects in which CAFO researchers have participated (see section 5.2 below). The present TLM.NET programme is based on the identification of a number of work packages, five of which represent different aspects of the theme mentioned. CAFO members have contributed to three of these work packages, one entitled Activating labour market policies and escape routes from unemployment, another Work-life balance and new forms of transitions and combinations related to household activities, and the third Active retirement: New solutions to demographic needs and individual preferences in retirement transitions. All these themes bear apparent references to one or more of CAFO s main fields of study. Dominique Anxo s contribution to the second of the three above mentioned work packages has been significant. In spite of this, and some additional contributions by other group members, up to now CAFO has not been able to make full use of the possibilities offered by its involvement in TLM.NET. The EU support makes it possible for CAFO to cover only part of the costs involved, mainly travel and accommodation expenses for the participation in network meetings and seminars. The preparation of contributions well adapted to TLM.NET s purposes has to be financed in other ways. The present research programme will allow an intensification of CAFO s active involvement in this and similar international networks. In this context it deserves to be mentioned that one CAFO member, Mårten Palme, participates in an international project on social security and retirement led by the National Bureau of Economic Research, USA. More detailed information about international collaborations and activities are found in section 5 below. Here, we just want to stress that CAFO also cooperates with many Swedish partners. So far the main ones have been the Institute for Social Research (SOFI) at Stockholm University, the departments of Economics at the universities in Lund and Gothenburg, the Department of Economic History at Lund University, the Department of Sociology at Stockholm University, and the Department of Psychosocial Medicine at Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm. Within Växjö University CAFO has a well-established cooperation with researchers in History, Sociology, Social Medicine and Social Work. It may also be mentioned that the Research Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS) finances and has assigned to CAFO a standing yearly conference in the area of working life, labour market and immigration. Up to now two conferences have been arranged in Växjö. A third one will take place in Växjö in October As indicated by the list of publications attached to this application, CAFO members have published many articles in refereed international journals and in books from international research publishers. Many of these publications have been achieved in cooperation with researchers at other universities in Sweden and abroad. They reflect CAFO members participation in national and international research networks. CAFO members are also often quoted by other researchers in international journals. Furthermore, CAFO has been involved in several prominent government commissions. This has resulted in the publication of many of its research findings in official report series (SOU-series) and in the opportunity for CAFO members to present their research at the highest governmental level. For instance in the last years CAFO has been involved in the government commissions Immigration of Relatives (SOU 2002:13), The Expansion of EU and the Free Movement of Labour (SOU 2002:16) and Inquiry on the Political Integration of Immigrants (SOU 2004:21). Many of CAFO s research projects have been based on the extensive use of individual-related and longitudinal databases, the construction and use of which are highly facilitated by the special registration number allotted everybody living in Sweden. As regards immigrants, CAFO s access to such databases is unique. The Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation and the Swedish research Council have financed the set up at CAFO of some very comprehensive databases making it possible to identify with special permissions from Swedish authorities individuals in consecutive censuses. This provides the long run follow-ups of individuals needed for penetrating econometric analyses of 7

8 the nature and determinants of integration and careers processes. The largest database includes about individuals, immigrants and their offspring (so called second generation immigrants) as well as natives (so called twins ). It contains for each individual a wide range of data relating to demographics, labour market, income, occupation, education, place of residence, medical history, etc, and it is continually updated. The current observation period covers a time period of more than 30 years. Lifetime studies covering one or more generations can be carried out. 4. Evaluations of CAFO The research at CAFO has recently been subject to two qualified evaluations. The first one was conducted in by the National Agency for Higher Education as an element of its evaluation of the education in Economics, including PhD programmes, at Swedish universities. The second one was carried out in within the framework of an evaluation of the Swedish research on International Migration and Ethnic Relations (IMER) initiated by the Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS) on behalf of the Swedish government. The National Agency for Higher Education states the following in its report (March 2002): Research and the PhD programme in Economics in Växjö, represented by the Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), has a clear focus on the labour market and international migration. CAFO is well established in these fields, with among others, access to own, extensive databases covering these fields, and also received a new assignment from The Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS) to organise a number of symposiums in this fields in the coming years. It also organises a large number of in-house seminars. Their endeavours should be supported in full. As mentioned before, an international team of researchers, contracted by FAS, has evaluated the Swedish IMER research. It evaluated 27 research groups in humanities, social sciences and medicine. According to the evaluation report (delivered to the government March 31, 2003), CAFO is one of the leading Swedish research groups in the IMER field of study. Furthermore, many of the recommendations about future Swedish research in the field considered are clearly in line with CAFO s current research programme. To illustrate: the evaluation team recommends more research about immigrants and their offspring s situation on the labour market with the help of individually based longitudinal databases (see above about CAFO s databases) and more evaluation research about policy programmes to integrate immigrants into the labour market. 5. Main fields of study This section is devoted to the presentation of CAFO s four main fields of study and their links to the theme labour supply and the provision of manpower. 5.1 The economic and demographic consequences of immigration Since the Second World War, the number of immigrants in Sweden has increased rapidly. In 1940 the share of foreign-born people of the total population amounted to only one per cent. The proportion had increased to nearly 7 per cent by 1970 and to more than 11 per cent at the beginning of the twenty-first century, which corresponds to somewhat more than 1 million individuals. Moreover, there is a growing group of so-called second-generation immigrants, that is to say children born in Sweden with at least one parent born abroad. At present this group amounts to about 800,000 individuals. Immigration may affect the income conditions of the native population in many ways. Immigration may have impacts on relative factor prices and on employment opportunities for natives. Some native groups may lose, while other native groups may benefit. However, studies from many countries show that these effects are fairly negligible; for a sum up, see, for example, Borjas (1994) and Ekberg (1999). Effects may arise not only through the markets but also through the public sector. In recent years, there has been a debate in Sweden, and in many other countries in Europe, on immigration as a 8

9 means to increase the labour supply and the tax base for the financing of public welfare system burdened by an ageing population. If the immigrants contribution to public revenues (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and social security fees) is larger than the increase in public expenditures attributable to them, then the corresponding net contribution will make it easier to finance the public welfare system. There are two major determinants of the immigrants net contribution to the public sector. The first one is their age structure and the second their employment situation. Immigrants have a more favourable age structure than the native population, that is to say a higher proportion in working active ages and a lower proportion of old people. This has been the situation during the whole post war period. The public sector redistributes incomes from employed people in working ages to old people. Therefore, in a situation with full employment for immigrants, it is expected that they give a positive net contribution to the public sector. According to some Swedish studies carried out, the immigrants net contribution to the public sector was positive for the post-war period until the beginning of the 1980s; see Wadensjö (1972), Ekberg (1983, 1999 and 2004) and Gustafsson (1990). Since then, the situation has changed. Nowadays, there are negative net contributions due to the deteriorating employment situation among the immigrants. Their use of the welfare system has increased and their contribution to taxes has decreased. Storesletten (2003) made a simulation study of the net contribution effect of an immigrant arriving to Sweden in the age group In Straubhar & Weber (1994) and Ekberg (1999), there are summaries of the results from studies in other countries. An increased labour supply may be achieved by a higher employment rate among immigrants already living in Sweden. What would be the effect on the public finances if the employment rate among foreign born in the age group increased to the same level as for natives in the same age? Calculations by Ekberg (2004) show that public finances would improve by nearly 2 per cent of gross national product, that is to say by SEK billion per year. However, this is probably somewhat optimistic. Many immigrants have now been outside the labour market for such a long time that they probably are no longer available for this market. Some of them have disability pensions. One research task is a calculation based on more realistic assumptions on the immigrants labour supply. One issue of this is the health situation among immigrants; see for example Albin, Ekberg, Hjelm & Sölvestål (2005) and Bäärhielm, Ekblad, Ekberg & Ginsburg (2005). Bad health reduces labour supply. Another issue is the present existence of large differences between regions in the immigrants rate of employment. As regards natives, the corresponding differences are much smaller. What will it mean if immigrants could be stimulated to move to regions with better possibilities to find a job? A third issue is to what extent discrimination against immigrants makes it difficult for them to enter the labour market. A fourth issue is what kind of labour market policy measures should be used to increase labour market participation among immigrants. This emphasizes the need for evaluations of labour market policy measures for immigrants; see section 5.2 below. A number of CAFO s PhD students are involved in the research now mentioned. Mikael Ohlson studies the immigrants in the disability pension system and Maria Nilsson immigrants in the sickness insurance system (see also section 5.3 below). Maria Mikkonen investigates the nature and causes of existing large differences between regions in immigrants labour market participation. Ali Ahmed uses experimental methods for the study of discrimination against immigrants. There is also an increasing research interest for the performance of the second generation immigrants (individuals born in the immigrant country by parents who have immigrated). One study have been carried out by Ekberg & Rooth (2003). Studies of intergenerational transmissions of labour market positions of labour market positions among immigrants will be important in the future. Additional research efforts aim at elucidating the consequences for, among other things, the labour supply of an increase in the future labour force immigration. It is a realistic assumption that such immigration also includes relatives. It is not in line with Swedish immigration policy, or EU rules, to have a guest-worker system. A large task for research is to study the effects in a dynamic way so that we can understand what will happen not only in the first years after the arrival of the immigrants but also in the long run. This can be done with the help of a combined demographic and economic model. 9

10 The demographic part of the model includes assumptions about the number of immigrants at the time of arrival, about their sex and age dispersion, and about their age specific fertility and death rates (we already know that these rates differ between immigrants and natives and between different immigrant groups). It also includes assumptions about the number, and the sex and age dispersion, of return migrants. These factors are determinants of the long run development of the size and age composition of the immigrant population. The economic part of the model includes assumptions about the immigrants age specific employment rates and their income careers over time. It also includes assumptions about economic growth, about public consumption and transfers in different age groups, and about the relation between individuals employment and income situation and their use of public transfers and contribution to taxes as determined by the structure of the tax and transfer system. Sensitivity analyses can be made by means of varying the assumptions chosen, including assumptions concerning the extent to which actuarial principles will be applied in the public sector. The model will be a further development of a model constructed by Ekberg (1983). Concerning migration studies, close cooperation has been established with Hurado University in Chile and Åbo Academy in Finland. Migration researchers from these universities have been guest researchers at CAFO. Migration researchers at CAFO show publications compiled in cooperation with researchers at other universities in Sweden and abroad. 5.2 The development and use of evaluation methodologies. CAFO s research on labour market policies aiming at the development and application of evaluation methodologies was initiated in the early 1970s. Until the late 1990s, it remained principally based on a close cooperation with the Expert Group for Labour Market Policy Evaluation Studies (EFA) at the Swedish Ministry of Labour. Most findings have been reported only in Swedish, many of them in a series of official reports published by EFA. However, in the early 1990s, CAFO researchers got the opportunity to participate in the preparation of an International Handbook of Labour Market Policy and Evaluation and later on in a European network research programme based on the concept Transitional Labour Markets (TLM), both initiated and led by professor Günther Schmid at Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB). This collaboration led to three major publications that well illustrate the evaluation methodology applied by CAFO and the corresponding way of thinking about the role of labour market policies in a broader perspective: Delander and Niklasson (1996), and Behrenz, Delander och Niklasson (2001 and 2002). The TLM.NET research network mentioned earlier, in which CAFO at present participates, emanates from the TLM programme. The impact evaluation approach developed and implemented can be roughly characterized in the following way: Some policy-making agency is supposed to face a choice between two or more policy alternatives, including policy A and policy B, such as for example measures aiming at influencing labour supply by facilitating transitions into the regular labour market for individuals who have spent some time in unemployment or housework, education, sickness etc, or preventing unwanted (by the individuals concerned and/or policy-makers) transitions from working life into outsider positions or various forms of social exclusion. The actors involved in the decision-making are supposed to ask for information about some of the differences between the course of events, that will take place if policy B is chosen, and the course of events, that will take place if policy A is carried out. Such differences between the two courses of events considered are usually referred to as impacts of the policy change from A to B (or the policy measure A to B). Sometimes it comes out as possible, by means of existing or obtainable databases and the use of econometric methods, to provide at least partial answers to the question posed by decision-makers: to find out about at least the probable signs and the relative orders of magnitude of at least some of the impacts regarded as interesting. The normal procedure is to try to make use of extra-ordinary experiments (almost always of a quasi character) carried out, or natural experiments offered when regular decision-making has involved the application of one policy alternative for some individuals (or somewhere, or in some period) and another alternative for other individuals (or elsewhere, or in another period). As indicated in section 5.4 below, a basis for the study of differences in outcome between different policies (including 10

11 different institutional setups) can also be provided by means of international comparison involving countries that have chosen different policy alternatives. To become capable of providing guidance for decision-makers, the evaluations carried out have to concentrate on universally recognised target variables representing, for example, the size and structure of employment and unemployment in various groups, labour market participation, income conditions, the rapidity by which vacancies are filled, and so on. Sometimes the results can also be interpreted in terms of social costs and benefits. Within the framework of the present research programme, further evaluation efforts will focus on policy measures intended to influence labour supply and manpower provision by facilitating transitions into the regular labour market for individuals and groups facing specific labour market conditions and problems, for example immigrants, elderly, long term unemployed, convalescents, etc., and preventing transitions from working life into various kinds of social exclusion. Priority will be given to evaluation tasks brought to the fore by other parts of the research programme. 5.3 Welfare policies and institutions As in most other Western industrialised countries, the labour force participation rates among older workers in Sweden has decreased substantially over the most recent decades. In the early 1960ties about 85 per cent of Swedish men in the age group 60 to 64 remained in the labour force. By the end of the 1990ties this share decreased to around 60 per cent; see Palme and Svensson (1999). As mentioned above, a potentially main source for extending the future labour force is to reverse the trend of earlier exit from the labour force. The social security system has an important role in providing incentives for remaining in the labour force for elderly workers, and previous research has shown that economic incentives affect the retirement behaviour (see e.g. Palme and Svensson, 1999, 2003 and 2004a, for empirical evidence on Swedish data, or Lumsdaine and Mitchell, 1999, for a general overview). In previous research, we have also looked at financial implications for the entire public sector of hypothetical reforms of the social security system, taking behavioural responses in labour supply behaviour into account, and the welfare implications of such reforms, i.e., we also consider worker valuation of leisure as well as aspects of income distribution (see Palme and Svensson, 2004b). There are, however, several areas for further research. The general question on to what extent institutional arrangements on the labour market, such as regulations on mandatory retirement ages and employment security rules, affect the retirement decisions. Furthermore, eligibility to different labour market insurance programs, such as the sickness and unemployment insurance, are very important for retirement behaviour, but has received comparatively little attention in research on Swedish data as well as in the international literature. Recent research indicates that about 50 per cent of the exits from the labour force are through one or more labour market insurance programs rather than through old age pension programs. To understand how eligibility rules for these programs interact with eligibility rules is a main area for further research. Another area for further research is on immigrants in Sweden s social security system. A PhD student at CAFO, Mikael Ohlson, examines in his licentiate thesis how a reform in 1979, when all immigrants became eligible for basic pension, has influenced the retirement behaviour of those affected by the reform. Another group of immigrants covered by bilateral agreements, very similar to the post reform rules, forms a control group in Ohlson s study. Essentially, this natural experiment (cf. section 5.2 above) allows him to compare the behaviour of two similar groups assigned to different pensions system. Another study that we have initiated (Ekberg and Palme) is about how social norms on retirement, acquired from the source country, affect the retirement behaviour on the Swedish labour market. Does the average retirement age in the source country, which does not affect the economic incentives for retirement in Sweden, affect the retirement behaviour? 11

12 Another PhD student at CAFO, Maria Nilsson, studies in a papers for her doctoral dissertation how immigrants differ from natives in their usage of the sickness insurance. She separates out the behavioural differences that can be attributed to observable characteristics such as economic incentives, health status, work environment, work hours and family responsibility. In future research we plan to extend this study to other labour market insurance programs and also to how it relates to the old age pension systems and the retirement behaviour. Professor Mårten Palme, CAFO, participates in an international research project on social security and retirement coordinated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), USA. 5.4 Time allocation over the life course One of the most salient features and persistent trends in advanced economies is the increased feminisation of the labour force and the related shift from the single male breadwinner household towards dual earners household and the increased diversification of household structures. Despite these common trends implying a significant reduction of the gender employment gap, there are still large cross-national differences in the patterns of female labour market integration and the patterns of gender allocation of time over the life course. During the last decades, major changes in the timing of transitions over the life course have also occurred. Globally, the European countries have experienced a postponement of entry into the labour market due to later exit from the educational system combined with earlier exit due to early retirement schemes and a lowering of pension age. Simultaneously, the trends toward individualisation, new life styles and normative changes have largely modified the traditional family life cycle model still prevalent during the 1950s and1960s. The overall reduction of marriage rates, the increase of consensual unions, the increase in divorce rates, the decrease of family size, the postponement of family formation (average age at first child) and the increase in life expectancy, coupled to the growing instability in the labour market have certainly modified households expectation and affected individuals choice over the life cycle. Hence, if the traditional sequencing of work history (Education- Employment-Retirement) or life critical events (Single-hood, marriage/cohabitation, children, empty nest etc.) still predominate in many industrial countries, most advanced economies have experienced a rescheduling of traditional critical events, an increase of instability and risks (separation, unemployment) and therefore a growing heterogeneity of life trajectories. The significant change in the timing of transitions at the two ends of the age distribution and therefore the shortening of active life coupled to the large increase of life expectancy have meant that the time devoted to market work has dramatically decreased. Time devoted to housework has also significantly diminished due to the growing availability of goods and services supplied in the market and/or provided by the public sector (outsourcing) and also due to the increased productivity in the home sector. The modifications in the household structure and the reduction in the size of household related to the decrease in fertility rates have implied that the time dedicated to children has also decreased. Hence, globally, the last decades have experienced a large increase of leisure time over the life course as a whole. It is worth noticing however, that those large changes are not evenly distributed between gender and socio-demographic groups. Actually, the growing feminisation of the labour force has de facto implied an increase of the time devoted to market work for women and the reduction of men s paid working time have been partly compensated by the increase of female labour supply. In terms of gender equal opportunity, the large bulk of unpaid housework and care activities are still predominantly performed by women, even though in many countries the male share of household production have increased (see Anxo et al. 2002). The resilience of a traditional gender division of labour has also large dynamic implications in terms of earnings/career prospect and also welfare development over the life cycle. The previous developments show that there is a need, both at a theoretical and empirical level, for a better understanding of the determinants of time allocation between various activities over the life 12

13 course. One of the main objectives of this research program is therefore to provide new theoretical insights and empirical evidence about how changes in the institutional and policy framework may affect households time allocation and income distribution over the entire life course. In other words, the conceptual and empirical analysis will primarily focus on how household time allocation over the life course respond to changes in the parameters of social security and welfare system and how institutional arrangements may or may not favour a better balance between paid work and other social activities, foster gender equal opportunities, combat social exclusion and improve working and living conditions. Comparative analysis of time allocation over the life course across different employment and welfare state regimes might therefore be a good way of isolating the role of the overall institutional framework on time allocation over the life cycle. Besides an overall analysis of the main features and trends of household allocation of time between market work and other time consuming activities in a selected range of European countries where comparable time use data is available (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK), econometric analysis of the determinants of the gender division of labour will be performed using alternative household models (unitary, bargaining and collective model of labour supply where domestic production is included). In order to obtain support for data management and accurate information about socio-economical and institutional framework in the selected European countries, we have already initiated an extended collaboration with various research and statistic institutes in the respective countries. Some of CAFO s PhD students prepare dissertations related to some of the issues here at stake. Monika Hjeds Löfmark studies determinants of households time allocation patterns in transition economies, focusing on the division of roles, tasks and responsibilities between men and women Susanna Holzer studies differences in patterns of higher education attendance and attainment early in the life course between socio-economic groups and examines educational policies, particularly the impacts of decentralisation reforms, as a means to influence such differences. 6. Objectives and implementation The four research areas described above have a clear policy and supply oriented dimension and constitute a coherent research programme focusing on the determinants of various socio-economic groups labour market integration. They combine a positive, dynamic and transitional approach with a normative dimension since they concentrate on integrative transitions and on policies aiming at promoting social inclusion and preventing social exclusion. The main objectives of this research programme are fourfold: 1. To analyse how and to what extent changes in welfare systems and regulatory frameworks, i.e. tax and social protection systems, affect, in terms of incentives/disincentives, transitions between different labour market status, including transitions into and out from the labour force, and, consequently, the size and structure of labour supply. 2. To analyse in what ways and to what extent the size and structure of labour supply is influenced by international migration. Here, two main dimensions are retained: Firstly, the analysis of processes of integration of already resident immigrants and their offspring into the Swedish labour market (including transitions from unemployment, education, active labour market policy programmes, the domestic sphere, etc.), and, secondly, the study of economic and demographic implications of an increase in the immigration into Sweden. Special attention will be paid to how and to which extent labour market policies, welfare policies, and institutional reforms can secure the labour market integration of immigrants. 3. To examine the overall impact of welfare and employment regimes on the labour market integration and time allocation of men and women over the life course. Here, the main aim and direction is to assess in a cross national and gender perspective the implications of different national institutional set ups for various transitions over the life course and, thus, for the size and structure of labour supply. This involves the identification of institutional reforms needed to secure integrative transitions over the life course as well as the sustainability of social protection systems. 13

14 4. The fourth main objective, related to and connecting the three above, is to make use of and further develop CAFO s tradition of evaluating active labour market policy measures (ALMP) with a special focus on labour supply oriented measures and the development of adequate impact evaluation methodologies. Here again the transitional approach is central, since ALMP measures aim at facilitating transitions from long-term unemployment, sickness, disability, housekeeping, parenthood, etc., into the labour market, and/or, conversely, at preventing transitions from the labour market into various forms of social exclusion. Among others econometric methods and simulation methods will be used in the research. The present research programme s central objective is to enhance our understanding of the patterns of labour market integration and the socio-economic determinants of labour supply and the future provision of manpower. Concerning methodological aspects we intend to use standard quantitative approaches completed with qualitative studies. Regarding policy-related impact evaluations, the main methodological approach will involve the use of natural experiments created by regular policymaking when different policy alternatives are applied for different groups, regional areas or countries. As far as cross-country comparisons are concerned, the active participation of CAFO in multidisciplinary European research network and programmes will be an important element of the planned research activities. Last but not least, we intend to disseminate, as previously, our research through publications in refereed international journals and in books from well-established international publishers and through network workshops and international conferences. We also intend to go on trying to reach politicians and other decision-makers through presentations to them of results arrived at and through publications in Swedish journals and official reports. References Albin B, Ekberg J, Hjelm K and Elmståhl S (2005), Mortality among foreign born and native born Swedes during , European Journal of Public Health no 4 (Forthcoming). Anxo D, Flood L and Kocoglu Y (2002), Offre de travail et répartition des activités domestiques et parentales au sein du couple : une comparaison entre la France et la Suède, Economie et statistique, nr2 vol , INSEE, Paris. Behrenz L, Delander L and Niklasson H (2001), Towards intensified local level cooperation in the design and implementation of labour market policies, in de Konig J and Mosley H (eds), Labour Market Policy and Evaluation. Impact and Process Evaluations in Selected European Countries, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Behrenz L, Delander L and Niklasson H (2001), Can Sweden s Rehn-Meidner model be put back on its feet, in Mosley H, O Reilly J and Schömann K (eds), Labour Markets, Gender and Institutional Change, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Bäärnhielm S, Ekblad S, Ekberg J and Ginsburg B (2004), Historical reflections on mental health care in Sweden. The welfare state and cultural diversity, Transcultural Psychiatry no 3 (Forthcoming). Delander L and Niklasson H (1996), Cost-Benefit Analysis, in Schmid G, O Reilly J and Schömann K (eds), International Handbook of Labour Market Policy and Evaluation, UK: Edward Elgar. Ekberg J (1983), Inkomsteffekter av invandring. Doktorsavhandling i nationalekonomi., Lund. ( Income effects due to immigration. PhD-thesis. Department of Economics, Lund University.) Lund Economic Studies no 27. Lund. Ekberg J (1999), Immigration and the public sector: Income effects for the native population, Journal of Population Economics no 3. 14

15 Ekberg J and Rooth D-O (2003) Unemployment and earnings for second generation immigrantsethnic background and parent composition. Journal of Population Economics no 4. Ekberg J (2004), Immigrants in the Welfare State, in Södersten (ed.), Globalisation in the Welfare State, Palgrave MacMIllan, New York. Gustafsson B (1990), Public sector transfers and income taxes among immigrants and natives in Sweden, International Migration Quarterly Review no 2. Lumsdaine R L and Mitchell O S (1999), New developments in the economic analysis of retirement, In Ashenfelter O and Card D (eds), Handbook of Labour Economics, vol 3c, Amsterdam: Elsevier. Palme M and Svensson I (1999), Social security, occupational pensions and retirement in Sweden, in Gruber J and Wise D (eds), Social Security and Retirement around the World, Chicago: Chicago University Press Palme M and Svensson I (2003), Pathways to retirement and retirement incentives, in Andersen T and Molander P (eds), Alternatives for Welfare Policy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Palme M and Svensson I (2004a), Income security programs and retirement in Sweden, in Gruber J and Wise D (eds.), Social Security and Retirement around the World: Micro-estimates, Chicago: Chicago University Press. Palme M and Svensson I (2004b), Financial implications of income security reforms in Sweden, in Gruber J and Wise D (eds), Social Security and Retirement around the World: Phase 3, Chicago: Chicago University Press. Storesletten K (2003), Fiscal implications of immigration A net present value calculation, Scandinavian Journal of Economics no 3. Straubhaar T and Weber R (1994), On the economics of immigration: Some empirical evidence for Switzerland, International Review of Applied Economics no 2. Wadensjö E (1973), Invandring och samhällsekonomi. ( Immigration and economics. PhD-thesis. Department of Economics, Lund University.) Lund Economic Studies no 8. Lund. 2. The staff at CAFO All members of the CAFO group are economists with the exception of Ghazi Shukur who is professor in statistics/econometrics and Gösta Karlsson who is PhD student in statistics. CAFO comprises of the following individuals: Full professors: Dominique Anxo PhD Jan Ekberg PhD Harald Niklasson PhD (Emeritus from However, still active as researcher) Mårten Palme PhD Ghazi Shukur PhD Associate professors (docenter): Lars Behrenz PhD Mats Hammarstedt PhD Dan-Olof Rooth*) PhD Jonas Månsson PhD 15

16 *) Dan Olof Rooth is lecturer in economics at Kalmar university collegue but as researcher he belongs to the CAFO-group. Assistant professors : Ali Ahmed PhD Lars Andersson PhD (just now pro-rector at Växjö university) Håkan Locking PhD Maria Nilsson PhD Osvaldo Salas PhD PhD-students in economics: Lina Andersson Magnus Carlsson Monika Hjeds Löfmark (has achieved PhL-degree) Susanna Holzer Joel Karlsson Jörgen Lithander Maria Mikkonen Mikael Ohlson (has achieved PhL-degree) Fredrik Olofsson Jonas Söderberg PhD-students in statistics: Gösta Karlsson Investigators: Lennart Delander PhL and doctor of honour Lars Tomsmark B.A 3. List of publications by CAFO researchers Some of publications are compiled in cooperation with researchers not belonging to the CAFO group. In such cases the co-authors, most of them being on the staff of other universities, both in Sweden and abroad, are mentioned at the end of each entry. Ann-Mari Åhlanders publications are not included in the list. Her research is mostly carried out at The Institute for research about working life (Arbetslivsinstitutet). A 1: International publications in refereed international journals and in books from research publishers with good reputation. The list also includes five PhD thesis and two PhL thesis. 1. Dominique Anxo (1995) The workweek of capital. In Anxo D (ed) Work Patterns and Capital Operating Time. An International Perspective. Kluwer Academic Publisher. (Co-author T sterner) 2. Dominique Anxo (1995) Shiftworking and capital time in manufacturing. In Anxo D (ed) Work Patterns and Capital Operating Time: An International Perspective. Kluwer Academic Publisher. (Co-author D Taddei). 3. Dominique Anxo (1995) Politique et evolution du temps de travail en Suede. In Hoffman and Lapeyre (eds) Le temps de travail en Europé, organisation et reduction. Syros. Paris. 16

17 4. Jan Ekberg (1995) Internal migration among immigrants in Sweden. Scandinavien Population Studies vol Håkan Locking (1995) Solidatarity wage policies and industrial productivity in Sweden. The Nordic Journal of Political Economy ( Co-author D Hibbs) 6. Håkan Locking and Dominique Anxo (1995) Politiques et evolution du temps de travail en Norvege. In Hoffman R & Lapeyre J (red) Le temps de travail en Europé. Syros. Paris. 7. Mårten Palme (1995) Tax reforms and income distribution: An assesment using different income concepts. Swedish Economic Policy Review no Mårten Palme (1995) Earnings mobility and distribution: Comparing statistical models on swedish data. Labour Economics no Lennart Delander and Harald Niklasson (1996) Cost-benefit analysis. In Schmid G (red) International Handbook Of Labour market Policy and Evaluation. Edward Elgar. England. 10. Jan Ekberg (1996) Labour market career among young Finnish immigrants in Sweden. International Migration Quarterly Review no Jonas Månsson (1996) Technical efficiency and ownership: The case of booking centers in the Swedish taxi market. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy no Mårten Palme (1996) Income distribution effects of the Swedish tax reform: An analysis of microsimulation using Kakwani decomposition. Journal of Policy Model no Ghazi Shukur (1996) Some questions concerning dynamic almost ideal demand systems. Applied Economic Letters no 3. ( Co-author D Edgerton) 14. Håkan Locking (1996) Essays on Swedish wage formation. PhD-thesis in economics. Gothenbourg University. Gothebourg. 15. Håkan Locking (1996) Wage drift and wage inflation in Sweden. Labour Economics no 3. (Co-author D Hibbs). 17

18 16. Harald Niklasson & Lars Tomsmark (1997) Zielsteuring der arbetsmarktpolitik in Finland, Norwegen und Schweden. In Riegler CH & Naschold F (Hrsg) Reformen des Öffentlichen Sektors in Skandinavien. Baden-Baden Verlagsgesellshaft. Deutschland. 17. Dominique Anxo (1998) Recomposition de temps de travail, rythmes sociaux et mode de vie. Travail et Emploi no Dominique Anxo (1998) Patterns of Time Use in France and Sweden. In Persson I and Jonung C (eds) Women s Work and Wage. Routledge. London. (Co-author L Flood). 19. Lars Behrenz (1998) Essays on the employment service and employeers recruitment behaviour. PhD-thesis. Lund Economic Studies no 84. Lund 20. Lars Behrenz & Lennart Delander (1998) "A Technical Efficiency Analysis of Swedish Employment Offices." In Tronti (ed) Benchmarking Employment Performances and Labour Market Policies. Wissenschaftszentrum. Berlin. 21. Jan Ekberg (1998) Hvordan påvirker indvandring indlandinges inkomster? I Bager T (ed) Okonomi og indvandring till Skandinavien. Jysk universitetsforlag. Danmark. 22. Mårten Palme (1998) A decade of tax and benefit reforms in Sweden-effects on labour supply, welfare and inequality. Economica no 1. (Co-author T Aronsson) 23. Mårten Palme (1998) Changes in the rate of return to education in Sweden: Applied Economics no 4. (Co-author R E Wright) 24. Ghazi Shukur (1998) Size and power of the error correction model (ECM) of cointegration tests. A bootstrap approach. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics no 4. (Co-author M Panagiotis). 25. Jan Ekberg (1999), Immigration and the public sector. Income effects for the native population in Sweden. Journal of Population Economics no Mårten Palme (1999), Social security, occupational pensions and retirement in Sweden. In Gruber J & Wise D (eds), Social Security and Retirement Around the World. Chicago, USA: Chicago University Press. (Co-author: I Svensson) 18

19 27. Dan-Olof Rooth (1999), Refugee-immigrants in Sweden. Educational investment and labour market integration. PhD thesis in Economics. Lund Economic Studies no 84, Lund.University. 28. Ghazi Shukur (1999), Testing autocorrelation in a system perspective. Econometric Reviews no 4. (Co-author: D Edgerton) 29. Ghazi Shukur (1999), The causal nexus of government spending and revenue in Finland. Applied Economic Letters no 6. (Co-author: A Hatemi.) 30. Dominique Anxo (2000), Time, lifestyles and transitions in France and Sweden. In O Reilly J (ed), Working Time Changes: Social Integration through Transitional Labour Markets. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. (Co-authors: Boulin, Lallement, Lefevre and Silvera) 31. Dominique Anxo (2000), Working time regimes and transitions in comparative perspective. In O Reilly J (ed), Working Time Changes: Social Integration through Transitional Labour Market. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. (Co-author: J O Reilly) 32. Dominique Anxo (2000), Transitions between different working time arrangements: A Comparison of Sweden and the Netherlands. In O Reilly J (ed), Working Time Changes. Social Integration trough Transitional Labour Markets. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. (Co-authors: Stancaelli and Storrie) 33. Jan Ekberg (2000), Comments on Eskil Wadensjö. Immigration, the labour market and public finances in Denmark. Swedish Economic Policy Review no Håkan Locking (2000), Wage dispersion and productivity efficiency: Evidence for Sweden. Journal of Labor Economics no 4. (Co-author: D Hibbs) 35. Mats Hammarstedt (2000), The receipt of transfer payments by immigrants in Sweden. International Migration Quarterly Review no Mårten Palme (2000), The evolution of income inequality during the rise of the Swedish welfare state 1951 to Nordic Journal of Political Economy no 2. (Co-author: A Björklund) 37. Dan-Olof Rooth (2000), Modelling female fertility using inflated count data models. Journal of Population Economics no 2. (Co-author: M Melkersson) 38. Ghazi Shukur (2000), A simple investigation of the granger-causality test in integratedcointegrated VAR systems. Journal of Applied Statistics no 8. (Co-author: M Panagiotos) 39. Ghazi Shukur (2000), The robustness of the systemwise Breuch-Godfrey autocorrelation. Test for non normal error terms. Communications in Statistics, Simulation & Computation no Dominique Anxo (2001), Aggregate impact of active labour market policy in France and Sweden: A regional approach. In Koning J and Mosley H (eds), Transitions and Labour Market Policy. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. (Co-authors: C Erhel and S Carcilio) 41. Dominique Anxo (2001), Assesing the influence of Gösta Rehn in France. In Milner H and Wadensjö E (eds), Gösta Rehn and the Swedish Model at Home and Abroad. Ashgate Publishing, UK. (Co-authors: C Brossier and B Gazier). 19

20 42. Lars Behrenz (2001), Who gets the job and why?-an explorative study of employers recruitment behaviour. Journal of Applied Economics no Lars Behrenz, Lennart Delander and Harald Niklasson (2001), Towards an intensified local level cooperation in the design and implementation of labour market policies. In de Konig J & Mosley H (eds), Labour Market Policy and Unemployment. Evaluations in Selected European Countries. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. 44. Mats Hammarstedt (2001), Making a living in a new country. PhD thesis in Economics. Acta Wexionensia no 9. Växjö: Växjö University. 45. Mats Hammarstedt (2001), Immigrant self-employment in Sweden-its variation and possible determinants. Entrepreneurship and Regional Development no Mats Hammarstedt (2001), Disposable income differences between immigrants and natives in Sweden. International Journal of Social Welfare no Jonas Månsson (2001), Essays on applications of cross sectional efficiency analysis. PhD thesis in Economics. Lund Economic Studies no 95, Lund.University. 48. Maria Nilsson (2001), Studies of work absence due to own illness. PhL thesis in Economics. Lund University. 49. Ghazi Shukur (2001), Some aspects of non-normality tests in systems of regression equations. Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation no 2. (Co-author: T Holgersson). 50.Ghazi Shukur (2001), Bootstrapped Johansen tests for cointegration relationships: A graphical analysis. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation no Dominique Anxo (2002), Working time transitions and transitional labour markets. In Schmid G and Gazier B (eds), The Dynamic of Full Employment: Social Integration by Transitional Labour Markets. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. (Co-author: J O Reilly) 52. Dominique Anxo (2002), The future of European labour supply: The critical role of the family. Feminist Economics no 3. (Co-authors: L Rubery, M Smith and L Flood) 53. Dominique Anxo (2002), Offre de travail et repartition des activites domestiques et parentales au sein couple: un comparison entre France et la Suede. Economique et Statistique no 2. (Coauthors: L Flood and Y Kocoglu). 54. Dominique Anxo (2002), Time allocation and the gender division of labour in France and Sweden. In Auer P & Gazier B (eds) The future of work employment and social protection. Geneva. 55. Lars Behrenz (2002), Employment services and vacancy duration. Evaluation Review no Lars Behrenz, Lennart Delander and Harald Niklasson (2002), Can Sweden s Rehn-Meidner model be put back on its feet? In Mosley H, Reilly J and Schömann K (eds), Labour Markets, Gender and Institutional Change: Essays in Honour of Gunther Schmid. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. 20