UBS Basic Materials Conference

Transcription

1 UBS Basic Materials Conference Andrew King 10 June 2009

2 Mondi at a glance Corrugated Bags & Specialities UCF South Africa MPSA Newsprint and merchant 1.6B 2.1B 1.6B 0.6B 0.5B 0.6B Sales 2008 (1) EBIT % 3.2% 7.4% 8.1% 18.9% 5.9% 1.2% Products Europe South Africa Europe/SA Positions in relevant markets No. 2 Kraftliner (2) No. 4 Corrugated Packaging No. 1 Kraft Paper (2) No. 1 Bag Converting (3) No. 2 Office Paper (2) No. 2 UFP (2) No. 1 kraftliner (5) No. 1 in Office Paper and UFP (5) No. 1 Corrugated Packaging in SA (3) No. 1 Rigid Plastics in SA No. 1 in Cartonboard in SA No. 1 Newsprint in South Africa (2) Leading Positions in Emerging Europe (4) (1) Segment revenues, including intersegment revenues. EBIT% before special items. (2) Based on production capacity, excluding new Portucel machine. (3) Based on sales. (4) Management estimate based on sales. (5) Based on capacity. Sources: RISI, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, Freedonia, BMI Foodpack, PAMSA, Mondi PAGE 2

3 A creditable performance in challenging conditions millions % Change Group Revenue 6,345 6, EBITDA Underlying Operating Profit Cash inflow from operations Net debt 1,690 1, Group ROCE 3 9.5% 10.6% 10 1 EBITDA is operating profit of subsidiaries and joint ventures before special items, depreciation and amortisation. 2 Underlying operating profit is operating profit of subsidiaries and joint ventures before special items. 3 Group return on capital employed (ROCE) is an annualised measure based on underlying operating profit plus share of associates net earnings divided by average trading capital employed adjusted for assets not in use. PAGE 3

4 Across Mondi s key grades, 2009 demand is weaker yoy but shows signs of recovery since early 2009 lows UFP cumulative cutsize order inflow 2009 vs (% growth) 1 Weekly order book: total sack kraft paper (kt) 2 0.0% 22 Week % % Source: CEPIFINE Source: CEPI EUROKRAFT (includes brown & white sack paper grades) Week 1 Note: Cumulative orders by European markets from CEPI countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands, U.K, Austria, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France). 2 Note: Order book made up of orders by all markets from CEPI countries. PAGE 4

5 Industry is responding, albeit slowly: more action needed Grade Announced Net capacity changes (kt) 2008 Announced Net capacity changes (kt) 2009 YTD Announced Net capacity changes (kt) H RCB (testliner / fluting) 1 New machines + rebuilds ,520 Shutdowns 425 1,130? Net capacity change ,520 % of industry capacity 1% 4% 7% VCB (Kraftliner) Net capacity change? % of industry capacity % % % UCF New machines + rebuilds Shutdowns ? Net capacity change % of industry capacity 6% 6% 5% Kraft paper New machines + rebuilds 20 Shutdowns 305? Net capacity change % of industry capacity 1% 12% % Excludes Russia & CIS capacity changes and may not include all small (<50kt) capacity changes. Source: RISI, EMGE, and Mondi estimates. 1 Includes SAICA, Venizel (90kt); Cartiera Cadidavid, La Veggia (460kt) inactive since January 2009 but definitive closure not confirmed. PAGE 5

6 Pricing under pressure as industry adjusts to softer demand environment Historical Price indexes Mar 2005 Jun 2005 Sep 2005 Dec 2005 Mar 2006 Jun 2006 Sep 2006 Dec 2006 Mar 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Dec 2007 Mar 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2008 Mar 2009 Indices rebased to January 2005 prices Kraftliner Testliner 3 A4 BCopy Source: PIX (A4B copy, Testliner 3, Kraftliner). PAGE 6

7 How has Mondi responded to the downturn? PAGE 7

8 A strategy which remains very much intact Leading market positions Build on leading positions in packaging and Uncoated Fine Paper (UFP), particularly in emerging markets High quality, low cost asset base Maintain position as lowestcost producer in our markets: Selectively investing in production capacity in lowercost regions Exploiting benefits of upstream integration (including forestry) Focus on performance Focus on continuous productivity improvement and cost reduction, delivered through business excellence programmes and rigorous asset management PAGE 8

9 Focus on packaging and UFP in emerging markets Product mix 1 Revenue by destination Revenue by origin 9% 29% 62% 49% 51% 46% 54% Packaging Emerging markets Emerging markets UFP Mature markets Mature markets Other (1) Based on segment revenues, including intersegment revenues. PAGE 9

10 Emerging market asset base leads to low cost positions across the Group s main grades Percentage of Mondi Capacity in overall cost curve Grade 1 st Quartile 2 nd Quartile 3 rd Quartile 4 th Quartile WT Kraftliner 100% Ubl. Kraftliner 95% 5% Testliner 70% 8% 17% 5% Kraft Paper 28% 35% 34% 3% UFP (Universal) 55% 43% 2% BHKP Pulp 100% Source: RISI Q manufacturing cost (WTKL excl. Richards Bay, UBKL, Kraft Paper, Testliner, UFP). Poyry Q manufacturing cost (Pulp). RISI Q for Richards Bay WTKL. Includes Merebank. Note: Testliner includes lightweight testliner and Mondi new Polish machine; Excludes SCA New Hythe. Excludes fluting. PAGE 10

11 Driven primarily by access to low cost wood (HW) EUR / m 3 South Africa RUS WE Inland Brazil Emerging Markets Mature Markets Thailand 25.0 Indonesia Uruguay US South Chile RUS WE Poland Canada East Australia Sweden China Northeast Finland India Slovakia France Portugal Spain Japan Source: Poyry Q4, Hardwood costs. PAGE 11

12 In Europe, Mondi maintains a mix of industrial and end consumer customer exposure Bags & Specialities 1 Corrugated 1 Corr. packaging end use 10% 9% 7% 3% 34% 1% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 21% 18% 10% 10% 7% 50% 12% 10% 16% 12% 13% 10% 12% 7% American cases Pallets, Tools Industry Bags Sackpapers Release Liner Coatings Flexibles Flexibles Film Kraftpapers Pulp (NBSK) DieCut boxes W.T. Kraftliner Kraftliner Sheet Substitutes Testliner Waste Bsd. Flut. Other boxes SemiCh. Flut CP Merchant Food Beverages Nonfood consumables Consumer durables Industrial Other ~60% Kraft paper sold in Europe ~60% Bags relates to building materials 57% Corrugated Packaging exposure to the more resilient Food and Beverage sectors. (1) Based on external revenue PAGE 12

13 Mondi s South Africa division is a key domestic and export producer SA Division Product Split 12% 4% 14% 48% Containerboard UFP 23% 22% Uncoated Fine Paper Woodchips (export) 37% 37% Containerboard Other (domestic) 77% Pulp (export) 26% Domestic Export Domestic Africa Export Based on segment revenues, including intersegment revenues. PAGE 13

14 The Group continues to focus on efficiency gains 2008 Cost Structure (%) Cost savings 6.4% 6.3% Cost savings as % of cash cost base 3.9% 3.6% 3.1% 2.3% 18.4% 32.5% % 6.4% 9.2% 15.7% EUR m Wood, pulp and fibre Personnel Variable selling expenses Energy Maintenance Other variable costs Other net operating expenses Depreciation and amortisation PAGE 14

15 resulting in a continuous reduction in fixed costs Breakdown of costs as % of total costs 100% % 80% % 40% 15.0% % 0% % Personnel costs as % of revenue (RHS) Depreciation and Amortisation Fixed costs Variable costs PAGE 15

16 Action on working capital is taking effect Working capital performance 1, % 1, % % 15.5% % 15.0% 13.7% % H % Working capital as a % of LTM revenue (RHS) Working capital In secondhalf of 2008 took downtime to balance inventories Q working capital in line PAGE 16

17 Mondi continues to rationalise its asset portfolio Bags & Specialities Corrugated UFP 2008 Closed Nyborg Bags & Specialities plant in Denmark Closed Zaragoza bag converting plant in Spain (55 million units) Initiated restructuring of Finnish & UK Coatings businesses Sold three sheet feeder plants (UK) Sold Niedergösgen recycled containerboard mill in Switzerland (160,000 tonne) Sale of two corrugated converting operations in France Closed Holcombe (UK) recycled containerboard mill (110,000 tonne) Initiated restructuring of Turkish corrugated businesses Hungary UFP mill closure (140,000 tonne) completed European UFP reorganisation completed (Annualised 50m profit benefit) 2009 Decided to mothball integrated Stambolijski kraft paper mill in Bulgaria (110,000tpa), and the Dynäs PM5 Kraft paper machine (75,000 tpa) in Sweden Closed 4 bag converting plants in South Eastern Europe Sold St Quentin since year end (France) Sale of two further corrugated converting plants in France Closed one corrugated converting plant in UK PAGE 17

18 Cutting back to low cost, high quality, well invested asset base Closures and Divestitures 1 Closure Divestiture to date ~600,000 tonne high cost paper removed 14% reduction of Europe & International s capacity 5% reduction in average production cost per tonne of relevant grades 2008: rationalised 12 sites 2009: rationalised a further 9 converting sites 1 Note: excludes previously announced mothballed operations Dynas PM5 and Stambolijski. PAGE 18

19 In response to the downturn, Mondi targets to limit capital expenditure approvals to 40% of depreciation millions 2008 % of depreciation 2007 % of depreciation Major Projects % 40 11% Other % % Capital Expenditure % % Depreciation Mondi is well invested Extensive programme of mill modernisation since 2001 (> 1.2 billion) On completion of the Syktyvkar capex programme, all our major mills have seen substantial investment Major Polish (midlate 2009) and Russian (2010) projects, on track and budget. Approximately 511 million to spend as at 31 December 2008 Aim to offset expenditure on major projects with reduction in other capital expenditure approvals to below 40% of depreciation PAGE 19

20 Key strategic projects to lower Mondi s cost base are on track Both projects on time and within budgeted capital cost Syktyvkar 525m Swiecie box plant ( 45m) Targeted completion dates: Swiecie mid to late 2009 Syktyvkar 2010 Fibreline civils Swiecie PM7 305m BOTH PROJECTS WILL SUSTAINABLY LOWER COST BASE PAGE 20

21 Polish expansion project puts Mondi at the bottom of the RCB cost curve 400 / tonne Current market price Swiecie mill cost estimates at PLN 4.60: (current = approx PLN 4.80: ) New Mondi PM Manufacturing costs 2008/Q4 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Brown field expansion gives: ~ 70m capital cost benefit ~ / tonne operating cost benefit Cumulative capacity in kilotonnes per annum Circa 50% of production will be consumed in own plants 1 Mondi estimate of current exmill prices, net of discounts Source: Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting PAGE 21

22 The Syktyvkar mill modernisation will further enhance Mondi s low cost position On track for 2010 Within capital cost target Returns come from: Cost reduction Energy production and sales Modest increase in paper volumes UNIVERSAL BUSINESS PAPER COST CURVE /tonne 1,200 1, Syktyvkar PM14 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Cumulative capacity (1 000 t/a) Source: Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting PAGE 22

23 Mondi s debt remains under control despite major project spend Group s net debt and EBITDA (in EURm) 3,500 3,000 2, x 2.1x 2.4x 1.8x EUR m 2,000 1,500 1,507 1, x 1, Net debt / EBITDA Net debt EBITDA 0.6x 0.0x Increase in debt attributable to major expansionary projects ( 324m spent) offset by strong working capital control and cashflow generation out of existing businesses. PAGE 23

24 Mondi retains substantial headroom on committed facilities millions Greater than one year Within one year millions Operating position as at 1 Jan Repaid / expired New facilities Exchange translation Other movements incl. M&A Committed Facilities 2,678 (196) 386 (116) Net debt 1,507 (238) 543 (136) 14 Undrawn 1,171 0 Net Debt Undrawn Committed facilities (1) Closing position at 31 Dec ,752 1,690 1,062 (1) no undrawn facilities mature in 2010/2011 Average maturity of committed facilities of 3.4 years 223 million of short term debt, net of cash Nearly 1.1 billion undrawn committed facilities as at 31 December Main facility is 1.55 billion syndicated revolver maturing on 21 June 2012 of which 720 million is undrawn PAGE 24

25 Outlook 1 Despite some evidence that the rapid destocking, which started in the fourth quarter of 2008, is coming to an end, there remains a high level of global economic uncertainty. This will undoubtedly continue to create challenges for the remainder of In this fast changing economic environment we have acted early and decisively to reduce capacity, lower the overall cost base and optimise cash flows. These actions coupled with Mondi s sound financial position and low cost, high quality asset base will leave us well placed to benefit when market conditions improve. 1 IMS 7 th May 2009 PAGE 25

26 Summary While current trading remains difficult we believe we are well positioned to weather the downturn due to our focus on cash and costs Working capital management Reducing capital expenditure Asset base rationalisation 2009 target cost savings of 180 million Strategy remains intact: Achieving cost leadership in chosen markets by focussing on maintaining and selectively investing in low cost, high quality assets. Major projects will further reduce cost base. Drive efficiency in downstream converting operations Mondi s Strategic focus on continuous productivity improvement and cost reduction as well as its low cost high quality assets will leave it well placed to benefit from improved market conditions in the economic upturn PAGE 26