Implications of climate change on glacier tourism demand in Iceland
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1 Implications of climate change on glacier tourism demand in Iceland Johannes T. Welling, University of Iceland Responsible Tourism in Destinations Jyväskylä, Finland Jun 2016
2 Photo by Ville Miettinen
3 Current glacier extents are out of balance with current climatic conditions, indicating that glaciers will continue to shrink in the future even without further temperature increase (high confidence) (IPCC AR5 WG1, 2013)
4 Goal & Methodology Examine the implications of climate change for future glacier visitation in Iceland. Research framework 1. Identify climate change induced impacts on glacier tourism and adaptive responses on regional scale Method: glacier site observation + interviews glacier tour operators (9) 2. Develop future exploratory scenarios of glacier sites Source: regional glacier volume development scenarios 3. Assess potential impact of glacier tourism demand in near future Method: Visitor Questionnaire (N=574)
5 Study area: Vatnajökull region Nr. Glacier sites Main recreation activities Visitors (2015) 1 Skaftafellsjökull Sightseeing, educational hikes Svínafellsjökull Sightseeing, glacier hikes, ice-climbing Fjallsárlón Sightseeing, boat tours Jökulsárlón Sightseeing, boat tours Heinabergsjökull Sightseeing, glacier hikes, kayak tours Hoffellsjökull Sightseeing, ATV tours
6 Climate change impacts: Glacier thinning and recession
7 Climate change impact: pro-glacial zone extension Source: Magnússon et al. 2012
8 Impacts on glacier tourism 1. Accessibility Distance to glacier Steepness Blocking routes 2. Hazards Rock-fall Moraine landslides
9 Impacts on glacier tourism 3. Scenery degradation Glacier coverage glacier view disappearance 4. Recreation opportunities Glacier lake boat tours Geomorphological heritage (geomorphosites)
10 Adaptation measures 1. Technical means: bridges, transport vehicles 2. Rerouting and changing sites 3. Diversification: extending or changing tour portfolio
11 Quantitative research: Visitor survey (N=574)
12 Results: activities conducted at glacier sites (N=574) Performed activity Respondents % Period of performance Sight-seeing glacier % All year around from distance Guided hike on glacier % All year around Glacier lake boat tour 85 15% Summer Ice cave tour 63 5% Winter Ice climbing 38 3% Summer Snow-mobile tour 28 2% Summer Super jeep tour 28 2% All year around
13 Respondents motivations to visit glacier sites Personal spiritual values A story to tell Visit glacier before disappears Friends and Family Experience peace and calm Change from everyday life Thrilling experience Be close to nature See glacier in real-life Experience new things Motivation to visit glacier site N= Likert scale: 1 =not important at all 5 = very important
14 Respondents attitudes towards climate change Climate change is happening now (%) I am concerned about climate change (%) Totally disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree Totally disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree
15 Respondents attitudes towards climate change Climate change is a result of human activity (%) Climate change is result of natural causes (%) Totally disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree Totally disagree 13 Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree
16 How willing are you to visit a glacier site if. (N=568) you have to walk 1,5 hrs to come to the glacier margin you could not come within 150 m of the glacier Willing 50 % Not willing 23 % Willing 42 % Not willing 28 % Neutral 27 % Neutral 30 %
17 How willing are you to visit a glacier site if. (N=568) the glacier was for a big part covered with sand and stones it is necessary to take a guided tour for a safe passage to and on the glacier Willing 21 % Not willing 47 % Willing 41 % Not willing 31 % Neutral 32 % Neutral 28 %
18 How willing are you to visit a glacier site if. (N=568) you have to cross a lake with a commercial boat to come to the glacier margin it is only possible to come to the glacier margin by commercial truck or jeep Willing 28 % Not willing 42 % Willing 23 % Not willing 52 % Neutral 30 % Neutral 25 %
19 Conclusions and further research Climate change has already and can have considerable impacts on future visitation of the glacier sites. Disclaimer: - multiple factors - to say is not the same as to do
20 Thank you for your attention!
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