Online Courses: Enrollment Trends and Projections Fall 2005 Fall 2012

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1 Online Courses: Enrollment Trends and Projections Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Background: Overview The data in this report examines the growth of CSM online students, total online course enrollments, and online sections over the past 8 Fall semesters ( ). In addition, linear projections are included for Fall 2013 Fall Data are presented for: (1) total unduplicated headcount of students enrolled in online coursework; (2) total duplicated enrollments in all online coursework by online students; (3) total number of individual sections of courses offered in an online modality; (4) total duplicated enrollments in online coursework by 8 discipline/subject areas. For purposes of comparison, the above data are analyzed in relation to the overall universe of CSM students, duplicated enrollments and sections. Projections Projection data are not intended as goals or targets, but are advisory, and a legitimate tool for program evaluation and planning. In non-technical terms, projections have been variously called forecasts, estimates, interpolations, or extrapolations. Although there are technical differences between these terms, projections are illustrative calculations estimating the future based upon certain given assumptions. As used here, the projections for Fall 2013, 2014, and 2015 are based upon the mean of the prior 8 years data (Fall 2005 Fall 2012) and are forecasts of the future values of these indicators assuming the past 8-year trend continues. However, as is well known, calculations bearing upon the future involve considerable uncertainty. One cannot predict with certainty such human behavior as student enrollment and faculty interest in online educational offerings. Findings: Overall Trends Between Fall 2005 and Fall 2012, the number of students (unduplicated headcount) enrolling in CSM online coursework increased from 487 to 1,840 (+1,353 students); an increase of 278% increase. (See Table 1.) Expressed differently, in Fall 2005, only 1 in 21 (4.5%) of all CSM students were enrolled in at least 1 online course. In contrast, in Fall 2012, this figure had increased to nearly 1 in 5 (18.3%) of all CSM students. (See Table 1.) As Table 2 indicates, duplicated online enrollment has increased 296%. In Fall 2005, online courses comprised 2.2% of all CSM enrollments as compared to 9.2% of all course enrollments in Fall In absolute numbers, this represents an increase of 1,747 course enrollments (590 vs. 2,337). (In duplicated counts of students, for example, a single student may be enrolled in 4 online courses in a given term; this student accounts for 4 course enrollments.) Page 1

2 Table 3 examines the number of online courses (expressed in terms of sections ). Between Fall 2005 and Fall 2012, the total number of online sections increased by 121%. In absolute numbers, this represents an increase of 40 sections or courses (33 vs. 73). Expressed differently, CSM online courses comprised 2.9% of all CSM sections in Fall By Fall 2012, online courses represented 8.0% of all CSM sections in Fall Figures 1-3 present linear projections, through Fall They include expected: o Online CSM students as a proportion of total CSM student enrollment; o Online CSM course enrollments as a proportion of total CSM course enrollments; and o Number of online sections as a proportion of all CSM sections offered. All projections show steady growth in the proportions of online course-takers and offerings. By 2015: o Nearly one-quarter (22.6%) of CSM students are expected to enroll in at least one online course, o More than one in ten course enrollments (11.6%) are expected to be online, and o Nearly one in ten sections (9.8%) are expected to be offered online. Tables 4 11 present the growth in total number of CSM online course enrollments in 8 disciplinary categories as a percentage of all course enrollments in each discipline, Fall 2005 Fall 2012: They include: Art; Business; Language Arts; Math/Computer Science; CTE/Vocational Education; Kinesiology/Physical Education; Sciences; Social Sciences/Humanities. The greatest increases in course enrollments between Fall 2005 Fall 2012 have been in the following subject areas: o Science course enrollments increased 746% (+418 enrollments). As a proportional share of all Sciences course enrollments, online courses increased from 2.1% in Fall 2005 to 17.2% in Fall o Business course enrollments increased 326% (+394 enrollments). As a proportional share of all Business course enrollments, online courses increased from 5.9% in Fall 2005 to 30.2% in Fall o Math/Computer Science course enrollments increased 198% (+343 enrollments). As a proportional share of all Math/Computer Science course enrollments, online courses increased from 5.8% in Fall 2005 to 14.6% in Fall Tables present an historical account of all CSM online courses, with accompanying enrollment in each course for each term, during the following periods of time: o Fall semesters (Table 12) o Spring semesters (Table 13) o Summer semesters (Table 14) Page 2

3 CSM Students in Online Courses Proportional Share of CSM Total Headcount Fall Fall 2012 Online Students Fall Term Unduplicated Headcount As Percent of All CSM Headcount All CSM Headcount , , , , , , , , , , , ,042 Total 8, ,517 Table 1 CSM Students in Online Courses Proportional Share of CSM Total Headcount: 3-Year Projection Fall Fall Distance Education Headcount as a Percentage of CSM Headcount Projected Distance Education Headcount 3-Year Projection Fall Notes: Data present Fall terms only. Projection method is linear (y=1.9745x , r 2 =0.9466). Figure 1 Page 3

4 CSM Online Course Proportional Share of CSM Total Course Fall Fall 2012 Fall Term Online Duplicated As Percent of All CSM All CSM , , , , , , , , , , , , ,338 Total 10, ,895 Table 2 CSM Online Course Proportional Share of CSM Total Course : 3-Year Projection Fall Fall Distance Education Enrollment as a Percentage of CSM Enrollment Projected Distance Education Enrollment 3-Year Projection Fall Notes: Data present Fall terms only. Projection method is linear (y=1.0216x , r 2 =0.9556). Figure 2 Page 4

5 CSM Online Sections Proportional Share of CSM Total Sections Fall Fall 2012 Fall Term Online Sections Online Sections As Percent of All CSM Sections All CSM Sections , , , , , Total ,412 Table CSM Online Sections Proportional Share of CSM Total Sections: 3 Year Projection Fall Fall 2015 Distance Education Sections as a Percentage of CSM Sections Projected Distance Education Sections 3-Year Projection Fall Notes: Data present Fall terms only. Projection method is linear (y=0.7379x , r 2 =0.9676). Figure 3 Page 5

6 Online Course Discipline Area Fall Term Online Course : Art Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Distance Education Percent of All Art All Art , , , , , , , ,674 Total ,495 Table 4 Fall Term Online Course : Business Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Distance Education Percent of All Business All Business , , , , , , , ,707 Total 2, ,330 Table 5 Page 6

7 Fall Term Online Course : Language Arts Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Distance Education Percent of All Language Arts All Language Arts , , , , , , , ,716 Total 1, ,075 Table 6 Online Course : Math/Computer Science Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Fall Term Distance Education Percent of All Math/Computer All Math/Computer , , , , , , , ,527 Total 2, ,264 Table 7 Page 7

8 Online Course : CTE/Vocational Education Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Fall Term Distance Education Percent of All Occupational All Occupational , , , , , , , ,952 Total ,115 Table 8 Online Course : Kinesiology/Physical Education Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Fall Term Distance Education Percent of All PE All PE , , , , , , , ,542 Total ,799 Table 9 Page 8

9 Fall Term Online Course : Sciences Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Distance Education Percent of All Science All Science , , , , , , , ,751 Total 1, ,493 Table 10 Online Course : Social Science/Humanities Fall 2005 Fall 2012 Fall Term Distance Education Percent of All Social Science/ Humanities All Social Science/ Humanities , , , , , , , ,402 Total ,259 Table 11 Page 9

10 Distance Education Enrollment History Fall, Spring, and Summer Semesters, Subject Fall Semester Online Course, Course Number Grand Total ACTG ACTG Total ,452 ASTR ASTR Total BIOL BIOL Total ,307 BUS BUS. Total BUSW Page 10

11 Subject Course Number Grand Total BUSW Total CHEM CHEM Total CHIN MA 5 5 CHIN Total CIS MA ME CIS Total ,769 Page 11

12 Subject Course Number Grand Total COMM COMM Total 9 9 CRER CRER Total DGME DGME Total ENGL ENGL Total ENGR ENGR Total ESL ESL Total FILM FILM Total FITN FITN Total HIST HIST Total HORT HORT Total HSCI HSCI Total JAPN JAPN Total LIBR LIBR Total MATH Page 12

13 Subject Course Number Grand Total MATH Total MULT MULT Total MUS MUS. Total P.E P.E. Total PHIL PHIL Total PLSC PLSC Total PSYC PSYC Total READ READ Total SOCI SOCI Total Grand Total ,080 1,441 1,542 2,229 2,018 10,715 Table 12 Page 13

14 Subject Distance Education Enrollment History Spring Semester Online Course, Course Number Grand Total ACTG ACTG Total ,405 ASTR ASTR Total BIOL BIOL Total ,113 BUS BUS. Total BUSW BUSW Total CHIN CHIN Total Page 14

15 Subject Course Number Grand Total CIS MA MA MA CIS Total ,669 DGME DGME Total ENGL ENGL Total FILM FILM Total FITN Page 15

16 Subject Course Number Grand Total FITN Total HIST HIST Total HORT HORT Total HSCI HSCI Total LIBR LIBR Total MATH MATH Total MULT MULT Total MUS MUS. Total P.E P.E. Total PHIL PHIL Total PLSC PLSC Total PSYC PSYC Total READ READ Total SOCI SOCI Total Grand Total ,054 1,222 1,546 1,948 2,377 9,930 Table 13 Page 16

17 Subject Distance Education Enrollment History Summer Semester Online Course, Course Number Grand Total ACTG ACTG Total ASTR ASTR Total BIOL BIOL Total BUS BUS. Total BUSW BUSW Total CA&S CA&S Total CHIN CHIN Total CIS MC CIS Total DGME 680MA Page 17

18 Subject Course Number Grand Total DGME Total ENGL ENGL Total HORT 680MB HORT Total HSCI HSCI Total LIBR LIBR Total MATH MATH Total MULT 680MA MULT Total NURS 680MA NURS Total PHIL PHIL Total PLSC PLSC Total PSYC PSYC Total READ READ Total Grand Total ,002 1,453 5,047 Table 14 Page 18