Morgan Stanley Global Emerging Markets Conference. London, May 20-21, 2015

Transcription

1 Morgan Stanley Global Emerging Markets Conference London, May 20-21, 2015

2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements regarding Coca-Cola İçecek s ( CCI ) plans, objectives, expectations and intentions and other statements that are not historical facts. Forwardlooking statements can generally be identified by the use of words such as may, will, expect, intend, estimate, anticipate, plan, target, believe or other words of similar meaning. These forward-looking statements reflect the current views and assumptions of management and are inherently subject to significant business, economic and other risks and uncertainties. Although management believes the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, at this time, you should not place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from CCI s expectations include, without limitation: changes in CCI s relationship with The Coca-Cola Company and its exercise of its rights under our bottler's agreements; CCI s ability to maintain and improve its competitive position in its markets; CCI s ability to obtain raw materials and packaging materials at reasonable prices; changes in CCI s relationship with its significant shareholders; the level of demand for its products in its markets; fluctuations in the value of the Turkish Lira or the level of inflation in Turkey; other changes in the political or economic environment in Turkey or CCI s other markets; adverse weather conditions during the summer months; changes in the level of tourism in Turkey; CCI s ability to successfully implement its strategy; and other factors. Should any of these risks and uncertainties materialize, or should any of management s underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, CCI s actual results from operations or financial conditions could differ materially from those described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release and CCI has no obligation to update those statements to reflect changes that may occur after that date. 2

3 Contents Business Overview & Strategy Operational Review Financial Review Appendix

4 CCI at a glance Kazakhstan Operating in one of the world s Turkey Syria AZ Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan most dynamic and exciting markets Iraq Jordan Pakistan A gateway to Turkey, Pakistan, Shareholder Structure Public Held (3) 25,9% TCCC (2) 20,1% Özgörkey 3,7% Anadolu Efes (1) 50,3% Central Asia and The Middle East Serving more than 370 million people; 60% of our population is below 30 years of age (1) Anadolu Efes and its fully-owned subsidiaries (2) TCCC and its fully-owned subsidiaries (3) Listed on Borsa Istanbul 4

5 Favorable demographics and growing economies Per cap consumption (liters) 180 Sparkling Beverage Consumption vs GDP (2014) 150 Mexico Argentina USA 120 Germany Kyrgyzstan Pakistan Tajikistan 0 South Africa Afghanistan Syria Iraq TurkmenistanJordan Egypt Brazil Bulgaria Turkey Azerbaijan Hungary Poland Greece KazakhstanRussia Spain UK Italy Oman Saudi Arabia Sources: IMF (GDP) and TCCC and CCI best estimates based on Nielsen and own market intelligence. Notes: Bubbles represent market size. CCI territory total population: more than 370 million GDP per cap (USD) 5

6 Successful expansion CCI expanded by adding +40mn* potential consumers per year over the last 7 years No. of countries Population served* (mn) Operating plants mn UC 424mn UC 480mn UC 533mn UC 1.13 bn UC Existing country New country Sources: Notes: Company, IPO Prospectus. UC = unit cases. (*) Management Estimate. 6

7 Diversifying across geographies and categories Volume Split - Geography Revenue Split Int'l 17% Int'l; 15% Int'l 49% Int'l 49% Turkey 83% Turkey 51% Turkey 85% Turkey 51% Volume Split - Category Still; 15% Tea 8% Still 21% EBITDA Split Int'l; 15% Int'l 57% Sparkling 85% Sparkling 71% Turkey 85% Turkey 43%

8 Strong brand positioning in key markets Turkey Iraq Sparkling 66% #1 Sparkling 29% #2 Juice Water Energy Water 27% #1 6% #2 Kazakhstan Pakistan Sparkling 49% #1 Sparkling 35% #2 Juice Water Juice Water 8%* #5 9% #4 2% #8 8% #3 *Our market share in premium and mainstream segment is 23% with #1 position in the market. Sources: Nielsen Retail Panel, 2013 & Retail Zoom. Notes: (*) Percentage volume share. 8

9 Turning volume into value Revenue Growth Management Productivity Strategic Procurement Operating Expenses Management Segmentation Production Sugar Turkey Jordan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Selling, Marketing and Distribution Expenses Availability Water use ratio lt water/lt product Resin «Cold is sold» Turkey Jordan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Energy use ratio MJ lt of product Sources: Company Can 9

10 Successful track record Volume (milion uc) Net Revenues (TRL million) EBITDA (TRL milion) Turkey International Turkey International Turkey International Sources: Company. Notes: CC Beverages Pakistan has been 100% consolidated effective from January 1, Topline figures are after eliminations. 10

11 Near term strategic priorities 11

12 Contents Business Overview & Strategy Operational Review Financial Review Appendix

13 Highlights in 1Q15 Net revenue and EBITDA growth in a challenging environment Volume decline seasonally in the smallest quarter cycling the high base in 1Q14 with significant headwinds in all markets Improved Turkey profitability supported by strong pricing Currency devaluations and slower economic growth in Central Asia Solid growth in Pakistan with market share gains, while competition intensifies Unrealized FX losses resulting in net losses 13

14 Volume and category split -1Q15 Volume Split by Category Volume Split by Geography* 12,0% 6,7% 13,6% 14,3% 6,2% 6,4% 68,2% 69,2% Sparkling Still exc. Water Water Other 7% Kazakhstan 9% Iraq 10% Turkey 52% 1Q14 1Q15 NRTD Tea Pakistan 21% Notes: (*) In unit cases 14

15 Turkey profitability improves Weak consumer environment, unfavorable weather, strong base in 1Q14 Excluding NRTD tea, volume down by 5% Sprite brand registered almost 50% growth Ice tea continued to grow at double digits NRTD tea contracted at double digits Category Growth Still & Water Sparkling & NRTD Tea 15

16 Pakistan & Middle East delivers 8% volume growth Pakistan volume up by 13% Continued market share gains Strong sparkling growth supported by 18% Coca-Cola brand growth Increased availability More than 20% capacity increase in 2015 Iraq volume declined by 1% Security problems continued to put pressure on volume in the North Challenging trading environment in South Coca-Cola brand grew by more than 20% in South 16

17 Central Asia volume remains almost flat Currency devaluations in Central Asia Azerbaijan volume contracted by 8% Both Tajikistan and Turkmenistan grew at double digits Kazakhstan volume contracted by 2%, cycling a very strong base of 35% growth in 1Q14 Challenging consumer environment Market share gains in sparkling High single digit growth in ice tea 17

18 Contents Business Overview & Strategy Operational Review Financial Review Appendix

19 Top Line Performance Consolidated 1Q15 1Q14 Change % Volume (m/uc) (2,3%) Net Revenue (TL mn) ,8% Net Revenue per UC (TL) 5,51 5,13 7,3% Turkey Volume (m/uc) (8,0%) Net Revenue (TL mn) ,1% Net Revenue per UC (TL) 5,47 4,93 10,9% International Volume (m/uc) ,8% Net Revenue (US$ mn) (2,8%) Net Revenue per UC (US$) 2,26 2,44 (7,2%) 19

20 Profitability* Consolidated 1Q15 1Q14 Change % EBIT ,2% EBIT Margin 6,3% 6,0% EBITDA ,6% EBITDA Margin 13,3% 13,0% Turkey EBIT ,4% EBIT Margin 9,2% 7,8% EBITDA ,0% EBITDA Margin 14,7% 13,1% International EBIT 5 8 (29,2%) EBIT Margin 2,3% 3,1% EBITDA (10,6%) EBITDA Margin 10,9% 11,9% *Excluding other income/expense 20

21 Financial Expenses (TL million) 1Q15 1Q14 Interest income Interest expense (-) (43) (38) Foreign exchange gain, net Foreign exchange loss from borrowings, net (256) (54) Financial Income / (Expense) Net (187) (46) 21

22 Financial Debt Profile Financial Debt (US$ million) Maturity (US$ million) % 1% 13% 12% TL & JD 86% 87% PKR USD Q Net Debt (US$ million) 1Q Change Net Debt/EBITDA Total Financial Debt 1,143 1,14 0% Total Cash & Equivalent % 1,96 2,01 2,45 Net Debt % *12 Months Trailing EBITDA Q14 1Q15 *12 Months Trailing EBITDA 22

23 Turkey s net FX exposure effecting P&L YE USD debt in Turkey (gross) US$ 875 mn YE due from related parties (shareholder loans to subs) Excess cash in USD US$ 250 mn US$ 118 mn Net USDTRY exposure March-end 2015 US$ 507 mn 23

24 Free Cash Flow Net Operating Cash Incl. Working Capital (TL million) Capex (TL million) Free Cash Flow (TL million) 50 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q

25 Appendix Financial Statements 2014 Corporate Structure Country Data Turkey AFB Market Trade Structure in Turkey

26 Top Line Performance Consolidated Turkey International Change % 4Q14 4Q13 Change % Volume (m/uc) 1,131 1, % Net Revenue (TL million) 5,985 5, % Net Revenue per UC (TL) % (2.7%) 1,083 1, % % Change % 4Q14 4Q13 Change % Volume (m/uc) % Net Revenue (TL million) 3,061 2, % Net Revenue per UC (TL) % (12.0%) % % Change % 4Q14 4Q13 Change % Volume (m/uc) % Net Revenue (US$ million) 1,339 1, % Net Revenue per UC (US$) (2.0%) % % (4.7%) 26

27 Profitability Consolidated Turkey International (TL million) Change % 4Q14 4Q13 Change % EBIT % EBIT Margin 10.5% 11.5% EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 16.1% 17.2% Net Income/(Loss) (excl. One-off) % (8) 24 n.m. (0.7%) 2.4% (32.7%) 6.5% 10.5% (37) (49) (25.6%) (TL million) Change % EBIT (15.8%) 4Q14 4Q13 Change % (20) (4) n.m. EBIT Margin 9.4% 11.7% EBITDA (13.7%) EBITDA Margin 13.5% 16.4% Net Income/(Loss) % (3.7%) (0.7%) (60.8%) 2.4% 6.1% (35) (49) (28.5%) (US$ million) Change % 4Q14 4Q13 Change % EBIT % EBIT Margin 12.7% 12.8% EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 19.8% 19.7% Net Income/(Loss) % 5 14 (62.4%) 2.1% 5.9% (26.5%) 10.6% 14.9% 0 0 n.m. 27

28 Corporate Structure Coca-Cola İçecek A.Ş % Coca-Cola Satış ve Dağıtım A.Ş., Turkey 99.97% % Tonus Turkish-Kazakh Joint Venture L.L.P, Kazakhstan CCI International Holland B.V. The Netherlands Mahmudiye Kaynak Suyu Ltd. Şti., Turkey % 51.23% J.V. Coca-Cola Almaty Bottlers L.L.P., Kazakhstan %* 48.77% 83.57% Azerbaijan Coca-Cola Bottlers LimitedL.L.C, Azerbaijan 99.87%* 16.31% 70.49% Coca-Cola Bishkek Bottlers CJSC, Kyrgyzstan %* 29.51% Al Waha for Soft Drinks, Juices, Mineral Water, Plastics and Plastic Caps Production L.L.C., Iraq 80.03%* % Turkmenistan Coca-Cola Bottlers, Turkmenistan Coca-Cola Beverages Pakistan Ltd., Pakistan Waha Beverages B.V, The Netherlands 59.50% 49.56% 80.03% The Coca-Cola Bottling Company of Jordan Ltd., Jordan Syrian Soft Drink Sales and Distribution L.L.C., Syria (CC) Company for Beverage Industry/Ltd., Iraq 90.00% 50.00% % Coca-Cola Beverages Tajikistan L.L.C., Tajikistan % * Direct and indirect 28

29 Country Data Country Pop. in 2014 (mln) (2) % of pop. below 30 years (2) GDP per cap. in 2014 ($) (3) Per cap cons of spark. bev. in 2014 (L) (4) CCI s m.share in spark. bev. in 2014 (5) CCI s 2014 Vol. Breakdown Turkey 77.7 (1) 49% (1) 19, % 51.1% Pakistan % 4, % 21.2% Kazakhstan % 24, % 9.0% Azerbaijan % 17, % Iraq % 13, % 9.2% Jordan % 11, % Turkmenistan % 14, % Kyrgyzstan % 3, % Syria % 5,901 (6) % Tajikistan % 2, % Sources: (1) TUIK, (2) UN, (3) IMF, (4) CCI & TCCC Estimates, (5) Nielsen, (6) CCI Estimate 29

30 Building a Sustainable Growth Business TCCC EAG President s Sustainability Awards Best Country Bottling Operation Award Winner: Turkey 2009 & 2013 Finalist: Jordan & Azerbaijan 2013 Best Performing Plant Environment: İzmir 2009, 2013, 2014 Quality: Ankara 2013, 2014 Best Improver Jordan ,27 Energy usage ratio (MJ lt of product) 0,26 1, ,41 0,44 0,40 0,41 0,28 Turkey Jordan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan 1,74 Water usage ratio (lt water/lt product) 1,41 3,44 2, ,10 2,10 1,92 1,65 Coca-Cola System Average Coca-Cola System Average Turkey Jordan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan 30

31 Turkey AFB Market AFB Market 5.4 billion uc (excluding milk) RTD AFB Market 1.6 billion uc (excluding milk) Sparkling Water 7,5 Dairy/Soy 3,8 Other 3,6 Tea 45,1 HOD 24,1 Fruit Juice 10,5 Sparkling Bev 37,6 RTD AFB 29,3 Bottled Water 37,0 Hot Coffee 2,6 Source: Canadean, 2014 Notes: RTD: Ready-to-drink Beverages, AFB: Alcohol Free Beverages 31

32 Trade Structure in Turkey Half of volume delivered by traditional trade channels Highest retail coverage among all FMCG categories in Turkey Other 1,3 Discounter 5,7 Traditional 50,1 On Premise 22,7 Modern 20,2 Source: Company Notes: On Premise Includes caterings, universities, workplaces, transportation, shopping malls, game/sportive activities/entertainment.. 32

33 Borsa Istanbul: CCOLA.IS - Bloomberg: CCOLA TI - Reuters: CCOLA.IS ADR-OTC: COLAY - Eurobond - Irish Stock Exchange: CCOLAT Credit Rating Long Term Issuer Rating, Baa3, Stable Outlook (Moody s rating, May 12, 2015) Foreign Currency Senior Unsecured rating and IDR BBB, Stable Outlook Local Currency Senior Unsecured and IDR, BBB, Stable Outlook (Fitch Rating, Dec 12, 2014) Corporate Governance Rating 9.25 out of 10 (Saha Rating, July 1, 2014) Glossary AFB: Alcohol Free Beverages CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate CMB: Capital Markets Board of Turkey HOD: Home and Office delivery water OWB: One Way Bottle RTD: Ready-to-Drink Beverages UC: Unit Case (1 uc equals liters) YTD: Year to Date Coca-Cola İçecek Investor Relations Tel: Fax: CCI-IR@cci.com.tr Deniz Can Yücel Head of IR Tel: deniz.yucel@cci.com.tr