The impact of the tourism industry on freshwater resources in countries in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, North Africa and other regions

Transcription

1 The impact of the tourism industry on freshwater resources in countries in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, North Africa and other regions Research project for the Travel Foundation Prepared by: Richard Tapper, Michalis Hadjikakou, Rachel Noble & Joseph Jenkinson 8 th April 2011 Submitted by: Tourism Concern in association with the Environment Business & Development Group Contacts: Patricia Barnett & Rachel Noble, Tourism Concern, Tel: Fax: rachel@tourismconcern.org.uk Richard Tapper, Environment Business & Development Group Tel: rtapper@dircon.co.uk

2 Contributions made by the project team: The members of the project team have contributed to this report as follows: RT developed the research concept, supervised the research, extracted and analysed the data, and compiled the report; MH extracted and analysed the data; RN managed the Tourism Concern Tourism-Water Conflicts Database ; JJ extracted the extracts from the Tourism Concern Tourism-Water Conflicts Database used in Annex 2. 2

3 Contents Executive Summary 4 1. Introduction 7 2. Methodology 8 Overview of methodology 8 Water scarcity indicator 8 Water consumption in the tourism sector 10 Adaptive capacity, inequality & development 11 Climate change Tourism water consumption, water scarcity & related factors 13 Overview of indicators for water & related factors 13 Chart 1: Tourism water consumption, water scarcity and related social 15 and environmental factors Chart 2: Tourism water consumption, water scarcity and related social 16 and environmental factors (Scores with expert adjustment for situation in key tourism regions) Water Scarcity, Environment & Biodiversity, & Climate Change 18 Tourism Water Consumption 19 Desalinated Water 20 Inequality & Development 21 Water Quality 21 NGO & CSO Involvement, Governance & Tourism Competitiveness 23 Tourism Growth Rates 24 Non-tourism factors affecting water consumption Overview of additional country information on water & tourism General conclusions Recommendations on selection of destinations for project concept development 30 References 33 Annex 1: Additional material 35 Annex 2: Additional country information on water & tourism 38 Suggested reference: Richard Tapper, Michalis Hadjikakou, Rachel Noble & Joseph Jenkinson (2011) The impact of the tourism industry on freshwater resources in countries in the Caribbean, Mediterranean, North Africa and other regions, London (UK): Tourism Concern and the Environment Business & Development Group The authors assert their moral rights under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act

4 Executive Summary Demand for water exceeds available supply from sustainable sources in a growing number of tourist destinations popular with UK tourists, and leads to water shortages. This has serious effects on surrounding communities and natural habitats, as well as on the tourism sector itself, and undermines the sustainable development of destinations. It also undermines the right to water of communities in these destinations a right recently recognised by the UN General Assembly and the UN Human Rights Council. Water issues are now receiving significant attention from governments, the private sector, and civil society. Ever-increasing demand for water coupled with the effects of climate change, is escalating pressure on water resources in most parts of the world, including in many coastal and island tourism destinations. The Travel Foundation wishes to identify where and how to address water issues at destination-level in association with its partners. This report covers research commissioned by the Travel Foundation into the impacts of the tourism sector on freshwater resources in 17 destination countries. It outlines a methodology for assessing tourist destinations where water is a critical issue, and for identifying destinations where the tourism industry is having, or is likely in the future to have, a negative impact in relation to water. The methodology described here has been developed from a review of current approaches for assessing water issues, including key indicators of water resources, management, quality, use, equity and stress/scarcity, and adaptation of these approaches to assess the impact of the tourism sector on water issues. The research reported here is based on nationally aggregated data, supplemented with additional information from Tourism Concern s Tourism-Water Conflicts Database. No specific data is collected nationally on the consumption of water by the tourism sector. Therefore the tourism sector s water consumption has been estimated in this study by applying standard water use multipliers for water use in tourist accommodation to the number of guest-nights spent by inbound tourists; and by applying water use multipliers for golf courses to the number of golf courses in the destination country. In order to put estimates of water consumption in the tourism sector into context, we express them as percentages of both the amount of water supplied through municipal water mains, and the total internal water use in each destination country. Inevitably there are uncertainties in our calculations that arise in relation to statistics on tourist numbers, water use multipliers, and water supplies and resources, including, for example, unregulated groundwater extraction by the tourism industry, and from recent regional droughts. Furthermore, use of regional water use multipliers ignores potential variability in hotel water use within and between countries; and while smaller countries, particularly small islands, are relatively homogeneous, for large countries there are generally significant geographic variations in their water regimes. The estimates therefore need to be assessed with these uncertainties in mind; however, they do indicate the overall magnitude of water use by the tourism sector, and the 4

5 broad extent to which this impacts local water resources and varies between different destination countries. The indicators analysed in this study show that water issues are a major and growing problem in all the 17 destination countries. Regarding the impact of tourism on water supplies, it is evident that the tourism sector consumes significant proportions of the water in the municipal mains supplies in both small islands and in semi-arid countries. It is also evident that in some island destinations, golf courses are consuming significant proportions of water. The nature of the relationship between water and tourism issues is complex and multifactorial, and it is therefore not possible to grade water stress from tourism on a single scale. Deciding priorities for intervention requires qualitative assessment based on the data presented in the report. Furthermore, the Travel Foundation have indicated that strategic considerations regarding the Travel Foundations programmes and the tourism partners with which the Travel Foundation works, will also be important considerations in their final decisions on priorities. All the destination countries included in this study are enduring severe water stress, caused, to varying degrees, by combinations of interrelated factors: - Physical scarcity: causes include exhaustion of supplies (eg. Malta, Spain, Greece), drought (eg. Caribbean, Morocco), pollution (including from tourism), and saltwater intrusion caused by overexploitation and, in the future, by rising sea levels linked to climate change - Economic scarcity: this includes lack of infrastructure, poor water governance and lack of demand management (eg. Kenya, Egypt, Caribbean) - Rapid urbanisation and unregulated tourism development: this is both straining and causing the contamination of freshwater supplies by untreated waste (eg. Tunisia, Egypt, Yucatan) - Population growth and fluctuations: including seasonal effects during tourism high seasons (eg. Caribbean) Although water is not generally physically scarce in the Caribbean, water scarcity in the region results from recent regional droughts combined with inadequate management of water resources, including inadequate infrastructure and problems of pollution. In the semi-arid countries of North Africa, natural water scarcity is exacerbated by rapidly expanding populations, high levels or inequality, poor governance and political issues. These latter factors also apply in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which otherwise do not suffer from a physical lack of water (although changing monsoon patterns may adversely affect future rainfall in Sri Lanka). Water stress and scarcity are likely to increase in the future in most of the destination countries covered by this research (the exceptions are Spain and Kenya, where rainfall is predicted to increase in their interiors, although not in the main coastal tourism regions). For North Africa, the Caribbean, Kenya and Sri Lanka, growing populations will increase demand for a scarce resource, while insufficient sanitary infrastructure will result in a decline in the quality of freshwater resources. These factors will inevitably have future impacts on the tourism sectors in these destination countries. 5

6 Water shortages, whatever their causes, are also likely to increase social and political tensions, including tensions between the tourism sector and local populations if they regard the level of water use by the tourism sector as excessive conspicuous consumption. This may be felt most in destination countries where there are already severe inequities in access to and use of water. To our knowledge, this report and project are the first to undertake a systematic investigation of water and tourism issues in a range of destinations. This report raises key questions: in particular, we suggest that in addition to selection of three destinations for project concept development, two questions also need to be addressed in discussion with UK tour operators: Which are the most relevant indicators from the point-of-view of UK tour operators? Which are the most relevant water comparisons (with water in the mains supply and/or with total freshwater availability)? We recommend the following criteria for selection of the destinations for development of project concepts for the Travel Foundation water and tourism research project: Provide a range of regions and levels of development; Face serious but varying types of water challenges, in particular in relation to: o physical or economic water scarcity o range of tourism water consumption as percentage of mains supply o contrasting water infrastructure and main types of water sources o scale of use of desalination o water quality Trends in future growth, and scale of risk from tourism to water arising from this, and from water issues to tourism growth; Ability to obtain information through the Travel Foundation s and our networks; Provide lessons that could be applied to the remaining destinations. Based on the above criteria, we therefore recommend that the Travel Foundation select three destinations for further work from the following: Caribbean: Mexico Cancun & Riviera Maya, Yucatan Mediterranean: Cyprus North Africa: Egypt Red Sea or Sinai Other regions: Kenya Mombasa region 6

7 1. Introduction Demand for water exceeds available supply from sustainable sources in a growing number of tourist destinations popular with UK tourists, and leads to water shortages. This has serious effects on surrounding communities and natural habitats, as well as on the tourism sector itself, and undermines the sustainable development of destinations. It also undermines the right to water of these communities, recently recognised by the UN General Assembly and the UN Human Rights Council. Water issues are now receiving significant attention from governments, the private sector, and civil society. Ever-increasing demand for water coupled with the effects of climate change, is escalating pressure on water resources in most parts of the world, including in many coastal and island tourism destinations. Working in partnership with the UK outbound travel industry, the Travel Foundation has already implemented a number of projects to improve hotel practices in relation to water consumption in mainstream tourism destinations where the water resource is directly impacted by tourism. The Travel Foundation wishes to identify where and how the Travel Foundation and UK tour operators can work to address water issues at destination-level; and has commissioned the present research into the impacts of the tourism sector on freshwater resources. The overall objectives of the research reported here are to provide a means for assessing and prioritising tourist destinations where water is a critical issue. Based on the information contained in this report, three destinations are proposed for development of concept notes for projects that could be implemented by the Travel Foundation and its partners. The Travel Foundation has indicated that strategic considerations regarding the Travel Foundations programmes and the tourism partners with which the Travel Foundation works, will also be taken into account in their final decision on selection of the three destinations for development of project concept notes 1. The methodology for this project has been developed from a review of current approaches for assessing water issues, including key indicators of water resources, management, quality, use, equity and stress/scarcity, and adaptation of these approaches to assess the impact of the tourism sector on water issues. In this first phase of the project, the focus is on national-level statistical information, supplemented by reports on water and tourism issues contained in Tourism Concern s Tourism-Water Conflicts Database. While data on water use is available at national level for all the destination countries included in the present research, statistics are not available for water use specifically by the tourism sector. To address this, we have used UNWTO information on numbers of tourist-nights for each country, and have then applied water use multipliers for water use per guest-night in different types of accommodation, and for irrigation of golf courses, to provide estimates of water use by the tourism sector in each destination country. 1 Wendy Moore, Travel Foundation Programmes Advisor, during discussion on 30 th March

8 2. Methodology 2 Overview of methodology The overall aim for this research into water and tourism issues is to collate recent data from reliable sources so that this can be used to provide an overview of the issues in the 17 target destination countries included in the study. The methodology has been developed to enable systematic data collection and assessment in order to help identify destination countries that experience water scarcity in combination with a limited capacity to cope with the problems posed by the lack of resources and/or high and growing water demand from tourism (Figure 1). The following section discusses the selection of suitable indicators for this study, taking into account data availability at national level, and also the limitations of the various indicators available. Figure 1. Diagram showing the main indices used in this study in order to assess water and tourism issues in the target destinations Water scarcity indicator Resources become scarce when the quantity available is insufficient to satisfy our needs. The availability of water for human needs depends on the physical availability of water (supply) in relation to the demand for water. Assessment of whether water scarcity is caused by insufficient supply or excess demand is often extremely difficult. Furthermore, this is complicated since human demand for water varies in different places, and is influenced by societal values and human behaviour. Variations in water use between countries depend on its use in different sectors of their economies as well as on factors such as differences in income, technological progress, environmental priorities and awareness of water resource issues. Water scarcity can therefore arise from a physical lack of water (also termed first order scarcity ) or from a lack of 2 This section is used with permission from revised PhD proposal, Michalis Hadjikakou,

9 adaptive capacity, including infrastructure and water management capacity with which to manage and distribute water resources effectively (termed second order or economic scarcity ). The effects of scarcity can vary enormously amongst different social groups in a country or region. These effects are compounded where poorer groups lack sufficient economic resources to be able to obtain sufficient water for their needs. There are often also significant spatial and temporal variations in water scarcity, for example, where water is only scarce during certain periods of each year. Most quantitative water indicators are geared towards highlighting first-order scarcity. Irrespective of the underlying causes of water scarcity in any specific place, water indicators incorporate various assumptions about the amount of water that constitutes a universally sufficient quantity of water per capita per day; this is then set as a threshold value below which countries are labelled as water scarce. Several indicators of water scarcity have been introduced over the years. The criticality index (CI) is used in this study. The CI is a hybrid indicator of the following two commonly used indicators: the Falkenmark indicator, which measures the amount of water available per person on a national scale; and the criticality ratio (also known as relative water scarcity index or withdrawals to availability ratio), which measures the amount of water that is used overall in a country, as a percentage of the total renewable water resources available in that country. Data for both the Falkenmark indicator and the criticality ratio have been obtained from the FAO s AQUASTAT database 3, and have been used to derive the CI values used in the present study. The CI overcomes the disadvantage of using an indicator such as the Falkenmark indicator, which on its own does not provide any indication of water demand in a country, and therefore ignores the fact that some countries are able to meet their requirements with less water. A demand-based indicator such as the CI incorporates a measure of the level of stress on water resources, which also implies a stress on the quality of the water. Like other water indicators, the CI uses threshold values: it classifies as water scarce any country that abstracts more than 40% of its available renewable freshwater resources. This reflects the assumption that the higher the percentage of volume withdrawn, the more degraded the water becomes downstream, hence increasing water stress. The 40% threshold indicates heavy competition between water users. This indicator has been the preferred indicator of choice for highlighting critical areas where future water stress is likely to be severe. The CI ranges from 1 for water surplus to 4 for water scarcity, and is obtained using the values shown in Table 1, based on a combination of the criticality ratio and the Falkenmark indicator for each country. Considering both of these indicators at once allows an appreciation of both the demand of water compared to availability, and also of the total availability per capita (a factor which is not considered in most demandbased indicators). The CI offers a simple, numerical indicator which can be used as a means of comparison. However, it should be noted that the CI gives no indication of actual levels of water consumption for different purposes (or evapotranspiration), or 3 FAO is the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation 9

10 of the amounts that could potentially be recycled. Like other water indicators, it does not take spatial and temporal variability within countries into account. Table 1. Criticality index table which allows the calculation of an index from 1 to 4 by combining data on withdrawal to availability and per capita availability (adapted from Alcamo et al., 1997). Per capita water Criticality ratio (use/availability) availability (m 3 /cap yr) <30% 30 40% 40 60% 60 80% >80% > > : water surplus 2: marginally vulnerable 3: water stress 4: water scarcity Water consumption in the tourism sector No specific data is collected nationally on the consumption of water by the tourism sector. Therefore the tourism sector s water consumption has been estimated in this study by applying standard water use multipliers 4 for water use in tourist accommodation to the number of guest-nights spent by inbound tourists; and by applying water use multipliers for golf courses to the number of golf courses in the destination country. Data and/or multipliers are not available for other water consuming elements of tourism, and therefore the consumption estimates are conservative. Data on numbers of inbound tourists and their average length of stay for the years , have been obtained from the UN World Tourism Organisation, and have been used to calculate the number of guest-nights in tourist accommodation by inbound tourists. Values for the water use multiplier have been obtained from the International Business Leaders Forum (IBLF / WWF, 2005 see Table 2). In order to put estimates of water consumption in the tourism sector into context, we express them as percentages of both the amount of water supplied through municipal water mains, and the total internal water use in each destination country. This simple methodology therefore provides an indication of how water consumption by the tourism sector competes with other users, and impacts local water resources. Inevitably there are uncertainties in our calculations that arise in relation to statistics on tourist numbers and average length of stay, the accuracy of the water use multipliers used, and the accuracy of national statistics on water supplies and resources. Furthermore, use of regional water use multipliers ignores potential variability in hotel water use within and between countries. The estimates therefore need to be assessed with these uncertainties in mind; however, they do indicate the overall magnitude of water use by the tourism sector, and the broad extent to which this impacts local water resources and varies between different destination countries. 4 Water use multipliers (also termed water use efficiency) are figures for the daily per capita consumption of water by tourist accommodation in litres per guest per night. 10

11 Adaptive capacity, inequality & development To obtain a full picture of how well a country is able to cope now and in the future, with the problems posed by water scarcity and water demand from tourism, it is also necessary to consider how equitably water resources are distributed within each country. No direct statistics are available nationally on this, and therefore we have used the UNDP Human Development Index (HDI) as an indicator of the overall levels of development, inequality and adaptive capacity within countries, as well as their water resources. The HDI is a composite index which is based on indicators for health, education and income (Figure 2): it provides a broader assessment of development than would be obtained by using only a measure of national income such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study specifically makes use of the inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI), which not only considers a country s average HDI, but also how it is distributed amongst the population. As a commonly used, quantitative index of development, the IHDI is highly suited for the purposes of the present study. The figures used here have been obtained from the UNDP Human Development Report Figure 2. Diagram showing the three dimensions (health, education and living standard) of the HDI as calculated using four indicators (life expectancy, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling and per capita national income) (source: UNDP, 2010). Climate change A large proportion of tourism is concentrated in areas that are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. The IPCC s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 (AR4) highlighted the fact that many regions of the world are likely to experience increased temperatures along with changes in precipitation regimes, and that this may well have a significant effect on local water resources. Some regions of the globe are expected to see increases in water availability, while other regions may have to cope with reduced water resources and situations of drought. Paradoxically, this can subsequently lead to increased flooding in places where rainfall intensity is set to increase, which can again impact negatively on potable water supplies and sanitation. Furthermore, the ability of countries to mitigate and adapt effectively to the impacts of climate change will also vary according to available resources. All this means that water-intensive activities will pose an even bigger threat to scarce water resources. 11

12 Water scarcity could become a limiting factor for tourism development, with serious economic consequences in formerly popular destinations 5. Furthermore, climatic changes are almost certainly expected to influence tourist preferences as changes in weather patterns may affect the popularity of certain destinations. Tourism in the 17 destination countries that are included in the present study, is concentrated on islands and in coastal zones. Water resources in these areas are often less than in mainland interiors, and are likely to be affected by both changes in rainfall patterns and by sea-level rise (which may lead to saline intrusion into coastal aquifers however, no projections are available on the likelihood of saline instructions in specific regions or countries). The IPCC s AR4 report highlights the Mediterranean as one of the regions which are particularly sensitive to shifts in large-scale climatic factors, as Global Circulation Models (GCMs) almost unanimously predict a likely temperature increase in excess of the global mean and a very likely decrease in precipitation for the area. It is therefore very likely that stress on water resources will increase in the countries considered in this study that are located in the Mediterranean basin. For countries in other regions, particularly for the Caribbean islands considered in this study, expected sea level rise will pose a significant threat to their local water resources, through seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers as well as an increased frequency of tropical storms which can affect water quality. We have included a measure of future climate change trends in relation to each destination country, using regional projections for expected changes in temperature and precipitation that are set out in the IPCC AR4 report. The projections used are obtained from a medium emissions scenario (A1B) and are the median values of the difference between and , from 21 GCMs. Future climate projections are associated with a significant degree of uncertainty which mainly comes from uncertainties in the representation underlying physical processes in models as well as the coarse spatial resolution of GCMs. For all the areas of interest in this study, the IPCC AR4 projections 6 remain the most reliable source of information on climate change. 5 Eg. Essex, S., Kent, M. & Newnham, R. 2004, and Gössling, S The GCMs model climate at a coarse scale that does not permit differentiation between coastal and inland areas. Rainfall increases predicted for Spain and Kenya are dominated by conditions in the interior of these countries. No separate predictions are available about rainfall in the coastal regions, which may be less it should also be noted that coastal water supplies can depend on rainfall on inland areas. 12

13 3. Tourism water consumption, water scarcity & related factors This section presents key indicators for assessing destination countries where water is a critical issue, and where the tourism sector is having, or is likely in the future to have, a negative impact. The indicator values for each of the destination countries covered by the present research project, and shown in Chart 1. The destination countries are grouped by region, and within each region are ranked according to a combination of the criticality index of water scarcity, and the proportion of water used by the tourism sector. Overview of indicators for water & related factors Chart 1 collates the key indicators that we have gathered for this phase of the research. These are a combination of indicators of environmental water scarcity, including climate change trends; tourism water consumption; inequality and social factors; water quality; and governance and tourism competitiveness. These indicators have been selected to assess the relative amounts of water consumed by the tourism sector, and the degree to which this may contribute to wider social and environmental problems in each destination. The indicators of NGO and CSO (civil society organisation) involvement, and human development also provide a sense of the effectiveness with which each destination may be able to deal with stresses arising from water scarcity: those that have more NGO and CSO involvement and which have better levels of human development, may well be able to manage and mitigate water scarcity better than other countries. Forecast tourism growth rates are also included as an indicator of the likely future development of tourism, which will also impact on water demand from the sector. In addition, a separate comment column is used to indicate where there are additional non-tourism factors, including demographic changes, that may impact water resources and demand in the destination countries. It is important to recognise that this initial phase of the research is based on nationally aggregated data. While smaller countries, particularly small islands, are relatively homogeneous, for large countries there are generally significant geographic variations in their water regimes. This variation is less for semi-arid countries, but is significant for Greece, Turkey, and especially Spain, which includes an Atlantic as well as a Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean, and the Canaries in the Atlantic off West Africa: these regions each have significantly different water regimes. Equally, Egypt has distinct water regimes in Sinai, along the Red Sea Coast and in the Nile Valley; and Mexico also shows variations, with the Yucatan in this case, having slightly more water available than many other parts of the country, but also much higher levels of demand and problems with water pollution. Chart 2, described in more detail below, has therefore been developed using expert judgement to better reflect the situation in the tourism regions of each country, where this differs from that for the country as a whole. Another important factor is the nature of the indicators themselves. Since water scarcity can be due to both physically restricted water resources, or to consumption in excess of renewable supplies, or a combination of both, indicators of water scarcity 13

14 and related factors generally incorporate a range of different factors, computed into a single indicator. The indicators for water scarcity, environment and biodiversity, inequality and development, and governance and competitiveness, are of this type. The indicators of tourism water consumption are based on estimates of water use in the tourism sector expressed as a percentage compared with statistics on national water use for both domestic water supplied through mains distribution systems (the main source of water for hotels in most destinations), or of the total national freshwater availability, including the mains supply as well as other surface and groundwater supplies. Chart 1 presents national data for each of the 17 destination countries included in the present study. In cases where data values are not available for a particular variable for a country, the relevant cell in Chart 1 has been left blank. (For example, data values on nitrogen loading are only available for about half of the countries in the study.) Chart 2 presents the data in Chart 1 but scored on a five-point scale to indicate the level of severity in relation to water resources within each variable, with blank cells filled in and with adjustments made by expert judgement to reflect the situation in the tourism regions of each country, where this differs from that for the country as a whole. Chart 2 presents the variables that are shown in Chart 1, and which have been converted to scores ranging from 1 5 that indicate the pressure on or criticality for water resources that arises from each variable. The scoring system used to convert the data in Chart 1, is shown in annex 1. In addition, Chart 2 also incorporates estimated scores, based on regional data, in cases where data was not available (shown as blank cells in Chart 1; and adjusted scores, based on expert judgement, to reflect the situation in the main tourism resorts/regions within destination countries (rather than the average national situation). These adjustments have been made in relation to the following variables: Criticality & Drought Index Forecast effect on rainfall Tourism water consumption in relation to water supplied via water mains Tourism water consumption in relation to total freshwater supplies available nationally Desalinated water produced as %age of total water use Forecast tourism growth rate 14

15 Chart 1: Tourism water consumption, water scarcity and related social and environmental factors Country Water scarcity Climate change Tourism Water Consumption Desalinated water Inequality & Development Water quality NGO & CSO involvement & Tourism Growth Criticality Index Human water security threat index Forecast effect on rainfall (% change) Tourism water consumption as %age of water supplied via water mains Tourism water consumption as %age of total freshwater supplies available nationally Golf course water consumption as %age of total freshwater supplies available nationally No of times water use per guest night (accommodation only) exceeds water use per resident per day *(pre Caribbean droughts) Desalinated water produced as %age of total water use Inequality measure (From UNDP HDI) (*based on comparison with other countries in same HDI category) Human Development Index (HDI) Category Nitrogen loading Deaths from diarrhoea by age 5 per 100,000 live births Voice & Accountability World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2009 (Percentile rank) Forecast Tourism Growth Rate Impact of non-tourism factors on water demand score Saint Lucia Barbados * * Very High Jamaica * High Mexico * High Dominican Republic * Medium Trinidad & Tobago * High Cuba * Malta * Very High Cyprus Very High Spain Very High Greece Very High Turkey High Egypt Medium Tunisia High Morocco Kenya Low Sri Lanka Medium Scoring Chart: Pressures on water resources Severe recent droughts Blank cells Richard Tapper & Michalis Hadjikakou, 2011 Severe problem 15 Minimal problem No data available

16 Chart 2: Tourism water consumption, water scarcity and related social and environmental factors (Scores with expert adjustment for situation in key tourism regions) Country Water scarcity Climate change Tourism Water Consumption Desalinated water Inequality & Development Water quality NGO/CSO involvement & Tourism Growth Criticality & Drought Index Human water security threat index Forecast effect on rainfall In relation to water supplied via water mains In relation to total freshwater supplies available nationally Golf course water consumption in relation to total freshwater supplies available nationally Water use per guest night (accommodation only) in relation to water use per resident per day Desalinated water produced as %age of total water use Inequality measure (From UNDP HDI) Human Development Index (HDI) Deaths from diarrhoea by age 5 per 100,000 live births Voice & Accountability - World Bank Governance Indicators Forecast Tourism Growth Rate Impact of non-tourism factors on water demand score Saint Lucia 4# 4# 5 5# 5 5 3# 1 3# 2# Barbados 5 4# # Jamaica 3# # 3 Mexico (Yucatan) 3# 4 4 4# 4# 2 3 3# Dominican Republic 3# 5 4 3# 4# Trinidad & Tobago 3# 4 5 3# 4# Cuba 2# 5 4 2# 2# # 2# Malta 4 5# Cyprus # 4 Spain (coasts & islands) 3 5 2# 4# 4# 2 3 3# Crete (Greece) # 3# 1 3 3# # 1 Rhodes (Greece) 4# 5 5 4# 3# 1 3 3# # 2 Turkey # 2# Scoring Chart: Pressures on water resources # Adjusted according to regional data and expert judgement Richard Tapper & Michalis Hadjikakou, 2011 Severe problem Minimal problem 16

17 Chart 2: Tourism water consumption, water scarcity and related social and environmental factors (Scores with expert adjustment for situation in key tourism regions) Country Water scarcity Climate change Tourism Water Consumption Desalinated water Inequality & Development Water quality NGO/CSO involvement & Tourism Growth Criticality & Drought Index Human water security threat index Forecast effect on rainfall In relation to water supplied via water mains In relation to total freshwater supplies available nationally Golf course water consumption in relation to total freshwater supplies available nationally Water use per guest night (accommodation only) in relation to water use per resident per day Desalinated water produced as %age of total water use Inequality measure (From UNDP HDI) Human Development Index (HDI) Deaths from diarrhoea by age 5 per 100,000 live births Voice & Accountability - World Bank Governance Indicators Forecast Tourism Growth Rate Impact of non-tourism factors on water demand score Red Sea (Egypt) 5 5# 5 4# 3# 1 4 4# Sinai (Egypt) 4# 5# 5 4# 3# 1 4 4# Tunisia # 3# 2 4 2# # 3 Morocco # 3# 1 4 2# 5# 3# Kenya 3 4 3# 3# 3# Sri Lanka # 2# Scoring Chart: Pressures on water resources # Adjusted according to regional data and expert judgement Richard Tapper & Michalis Hadjikakou, 2011 Severe problem Minimal problem 17

18 Water Scarcity, Environment & Biodiversity, & Climate Change These indicators, with exceptions that will be discussed later, all show that water is a scarce resource in all the countries included in this study. The Human Water Security Threat Index 7 is calculated from 23 variables covering water catchment disturbance, pollution, water resource development, and biotic factors (Box 1). As a multivariate index which summarises such a wealth of information, it makes assumptions about the relative importance of each variable in order to allow the calculation of an averaged value for each country. Box 1: Variables included in the Human Water Security Threat Index Catchment disturbance Cropland Impervious Surfaces Livestock Density Wetland Disconnectivity Pollution Soil Salinisation Nitrogen Loading Phosphorus Loading Mercury Deposition Pesticide Loading Sediment Loading Organic Loading Potential Acidification Thermal Alteration Water Resource Development Dam Density River Fragmentation Consumptive Water Loss Human Water Stress Agricultural Water Stress Flow Disruption Biotic Factors Non-Native Fishes (%) Non-Native Fishes (No.) Fishing Pressure Aquaculture Pressure The index is high for all the countries covered, reflecting the intensity of agriculture, associated pollution from agriculture and from population growth, and development of water resources in an attempt to keep pace with growing demand for water. The Criticality Index (Table 1) is an indicator of the balance between available water supplies and the demand for water 8. Interestingly, much of the Caribbean has generally received such large annual rainfall that its water resources have been potentially ample for growing demand. However, the criticality index does not take into account either water supply infrastructure or pollution from wastewater, both of which are problematic in the region, and also the recent droughts 9 that have been experienced there. Chart 2 shows a combined criticality and drought score, in which the water criticality index in Chart 1 has been adjusted to reflect the droughts in the Caribbean, and water pollution resulting from both agricultural run off and poor sewage disposal practices in other destination regions. In particular, as well as indicating a greater level of severity in the Caribbean, this score includes adjustments for the coastal and island regions reflecting the relative scarcity of water resources in coastal regions compared with inland areas of 7 From Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity published in the international journal, Nature, volume 467, 30 September 2010 by C.J. Vorosmarty and co-workers. 8 The data for determination of the criticality index are shown in Annex 1, Table A. 9 The droughts are reported to be a result of the El Nino effect. El Nino and La Nina years alternate and respectively result in tendencies towards drought or flooding, and have been accentuated in recent years. The phenomenon is associated with sea circulation off the west coast of South America, but has global effects: both flooding and drought incidents are forecast to increase will global warming. 18

19 Turkey, Spain and Kenya, for the Greek islands of Crete and Rhodes, and for the Red Sea and Sinai regions of Egypt. The water criticality index in Chart 1 for Tunisia and Morocco is already at or near the maximum, and no adjustment has been made for these countries in Chart 2. Finally, with the exceptions of Spain and Kenya, the countries in this study are forecast to face long term declines in rainfall of at least 9 percent throughout the course of the 21 st century, driven by climatic change. The increases of rainfall forecast for Spain and Kenya are mainly in their interiors, and are likely to be far less in their coastal areas 10. The scores for forecast effects on rainfall in Spain and Kenya have therefore been increased in Chart 2, to reflect the possibility that rainfall in their coastal areas may increase less than for the interior, or be subject to a decline. Average annual temperatures for all 17 destination countries are forecast to rise by between 3.2 to 3.5 degrees Celsius. Tourism Water Consumption National data are not available for water consumption by the tourism sector, and so this has been estimated by applying water use multipliers to data on the number of inbound tourist guest nights. The number of inbound tourist guest nights has been obtained from UNWTO statistics for the period (published in 2010). The water use multipliers have been taken from the IBLF/WWF report Why environmental benchmarking will help your hotel (2005), which provides performance standards for the amounts of water used per guest-night by different types of hotels (Table 2). These performance standards are also used by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in assessing project proposals. For the present study, average water use per guest night is taken to be the mid-point in the IBLF/WWF figures for water use per guest-night (ie. at the borderline between satisfactory and high levels of water use), and that there is a 20% / 60% / 20% split between the luxury, mid-range and small/budget hotel categories 11. Table 2. Water use multipliers for hotels Cubic metres of water per guestnight Excellent Satisfactory High Excessive LUXURY FULLY SERVICED HOTELS Mediterranean < >1.10 Tropical < >1.40 MIDRANGE FULLY SERVICED HOTELS Mediterranean < >0.95 Tropical < >1.20 SMALL/BUDGET FULLY SERVICED HOTELS Mediterranean < >0.38 Tropical < >0.46 IBLF/WWF (2005) Why environmental benchmarking will help your hotel Tourism water consumption estimated in this way is compared with the amount of water supplied by municipal water mains, representing the main source of water for most hotels, 10 The forecast effects on rainfall are based on coarse gained modelling reported in the IPCC AR4, which does not permit differentiation between coastal and inland areas. The rainfall increases predicted for Spain and Kenya are dominated by conditions in the interior of these countries, and no separate predictions are available about rainfall in their coastal regions. However, it should also be noted that coastal water supplies can depend on rainfall on inland areas. 11 This split is based on expert judgement, and can be adjusted if suitable information becomes available. 19

20 and hence the main water supply for which the tourism sector competes with other users of mains water; and with the total amount of freshwater supplies that are available nationally 12. These statistics have been obtained from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation s (FAO) AQUASTAT database and from reports on national water footprints published by UNESCO s Institute for Hydrology Education. Tourist water consumption is expressed as a percentage of the relevant figures. There is considerable variation in the proportion of water supplied by municipal water mains in relation to the total amount of freshwater supplies that are available nationally. Water consumption for golf courses is also estimated by applying water use multipliers to the number of golf courses present for tourist use; this estimate is again expressed as a percentage of the total amount of freshwater supplies that are available nationally. A water use multiplier of 1 million cubic metres of water per year has been used in Chart 1, which is a fairly conservative estimate mostly based on estimates from temperate climates. Finally since both the tourism sector and the domestic sector use predominantly water from municipal water mains, water use per guest-night (water use multiplier) is compared with the daily use of water per resident. For Mediterranean and Caribbean destinations (with the exception of Jamaica), for each tourist, the tourism sector uses between one and a half to two and a half times the daily amount of water used by a local resident. However, the data available do not cover the recent drought periods in the Caribbean, and the current ratios in this region are likely to be significantly greater than indicated. For Jamaica and the North African destinations between four to ten times as much water is used per tourist, and for Kenya and Sri Lanka about 18 to 20 times as much water is used per tourist: these ratios reflect low water consumption by local residents, which is generally due to poor provision of public water supplies. In addition, for all destinations, the issue of unregulated and unmonitored water extraction methods by the tourism industry, such as boreholes and wells, about which it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to collect accurate data, must also be borne in mind. In Chart 2, adjustments have been made in cases where water used in resorts and destination regions is drawn from local sources, and where it is necessary to reflect the smaller volumes of water supplied via the local water mains, and freshwater supplies available locally; and therefore a relative increase in the proportion of water from these sources that is consumed by the tourism sector. Desalinated Water Data on the total amount of desalinated water supplied nationally is provided in the FAO AQUASTAT database. For most of the destinations covered in this study, the amount of desalinated water supplied is less than half a percent of the total amount of freshwater supplies that are available nationally. However, about ten to fifteen percent of water supplies come from desalination in Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and Cyprus, and nearly sixty percent in Malta. In addition to accounting for a significant proportion of water supplies in several small islands included in the present study, desalination is also being extensively used in coastal areas of larger countries. Although this may only produce a small proportion of national 12 The data for these comparisons are shown in Annex 1, Table B. 20

21 water supplies, the local contribution of desalination to water supplies in coastal areas will be much higher than indicated by national data. Adjustments are made in Chart 2 to reflect this. In particular, the Red Sea and Sinai areas of Egypt rely heavily on desalination for their water supplies, while Spain has around 700 desalination plants in operation on its coasts. In Yucatan, hotels use desalination plants to treat saline water extracted from boreholes. As far as we can determine, desalination is less extensively used in other countries (not least because it is an expensive option). Desalination is an energy-intensive process, and also produces large quantities of concentrated brine waste that needs to be disposed of. Water supplies from this source cannot be regarded as a sustainable solution to problems of water scarcity in the longer term. Inequality & Development Although it is recognised that different social groups and communities often have very different access to clean water supplies and sanitation, direct statistics on differences in such access are not available at national level. The only national level statistics that are generally available are for the proportions of populations that have access to improved sanitation and improved drinking water (although this does not take into account water quality, and improved supplies are still not necessarily safe supplies). This data is provided to measure progress in relation to Millennium Development Goals on water and sanitation. As an alternative, the UNDP s Human Development Index (HDI) has been used to indicate the overall level of human development, including key health indicators alongside other development indicators, and the inequality-adjusted HDI has been used as an indicator of inequality. This inequality-adjusted HDI indicates the extent of variation in human development within a population: the greater the variation (with some groups having significantly better levels of development than others within a country) the greater the level of inequality. Since access to resources, including water, is generally strongly correlated with the HDI and inequality, this provides a more comprehensive measure of likely inequality in access to water than data for the MDGs alone. Levels of human development are high or very high in the countries included in the present study, with the exceptions of the Dominican Republic, Egypt and Sri Lanka (medium HDI) and Kenya (low HDI). However, there are significant levels of inequality within some of the countries that have a high HDI, as well as those with medium or low HDIs. In Chart 2, inequality scores have been assigned for St. Lucia, Cuba and Morocco by comparison with similar countries. Water Quality Because there are very few monitoring stations in most countries, and of the site-specific nature of many monitoring variables, water quality is difficult to assess at national level. Data on water quality need to be collected at monitoring stations and since measurements of pollutant and microbial concentrations can vary widely according to local meteorological conditions, particularly if measurements are made before or after periods of heavy rainfall or drought. 21