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2 Mainland 10 Donald Trump s Shaky Grasp on Immigration By EDUARDO PORTER When Donald Trump was reaching adulthood in the mid-1960s, the United States was a less diverse place. By 1970, the share of the population born overseas had shrunk to 4.7 percent, the slimmest on record. Only about 0.4 percent of the population had been born in Mexico. The core constituency of Mr. Trump, the Republican frontrunner white, older voters like him who are more likely to believe that immigrants take Americans jobs, housing and health care than accept that they contribute to the economy came of age largely at that stage in history, from the 1950s through the early 1970s. It was a unique period of rapid economic growth, when the children and grandchildren of Europeans were blending into a homogeneous mass, said Douglas S. Massey, a Princeton sociologist. That world is gone. This transformation provides the most convincing explanation of the runaway popularity of Mr. Trump s proposition to kick out the estimated 11 million immigrants living illegally in the United States today and close the door to future migrants with a 2,000-mile border wall. To these voters, a country where 13 percent of the population was born abroad and where 17 percent identify as Latino is a scary place. But what is most paradoxical about that belief is that Mr. Trump s central proposition that illegal immigration into the United States remains a critical problem is actually wrong. Mr. Trump, as Mr. Massey succinctly put it, is beating a dead horse. Since the housing bubble burst and construction jobs dried up, more unauthorized immigrants have left the United States than have come in. Careful estimates by the Pew Research Center show that the number of undocumented NOTICE TO: ALL INSUREDS AND POLICYHOLDERS OF ASSURED GUARANTY CORP. RADIAN ASSET ASSURANCE INC. Effective April 1, 2015, Assured Guaranty Corp. ( AGC ), a Maryland domiciled insurer, acquired Radian Asset Assurance Inc., ( RAAI ) a New York domiciled insurer. As a result of the transaction RAAI merged with and into AGC. AGC is the surviving entity of the merger. The home office address of AGC is 31 West 52nd Street, New York, NY All terms, conditions and benefits under the policies issued by the above insurance companies remain unchanged, and the rights of the policyholders are not affected by the acquisition or the merger. All inquiries can be addressed to: Mexicans living in the United States shrank by roughly 1.1 million by 2012, from its peak in Illegal immigration could rebound as the American economy recovers further. But Mr. Massey and others argue that a more powerful force is pulling in the other direction: demographics, which has significantly shrunk the population of Mexicans interested in crossing the border. I don t see Mexicans coming back in any great number, said Pia M. Orrenius, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas who has studied patterns of illegal immigration. The cohorts of working-age men are much diminished, so you don t have the push. Indeed, 15- to 24-year-olds, those most likely to consider going north, shrank to 18 percent of the Mexican population in 2015 from 22 percent in They are expected to drop to 16 percent of the population in The great migration boom from Mexico from the 1980s through the first half of the last decade was the consequence of a perfect storm, said Gordon Hanson, an economics professor at the University of California, San Diego. Even as the United States experienced solid growth through what came to be known as the Great Moderation, Mexico suffered three currency crises in 13 years. And while growth in the American-born labor supply slowed after the last of the baby boomers entered the work force, Mexico s working-age population was still expanding fast. This period won t be repeated, Professor Hanson said. The great Mexican migration wave has crested. Perhaps the strangest thing about Mr. Trump s appeal is that his main weapon the border wall is already well established. It has proved, at best, pretty much irrelevant. At worst, it backfired badly. Border Patrol personnel have doubled since 2004, to more than 21,000. More than 650 miles of fencing has been built, festooned with sensors and backed up by drones. These days, immigration enforcement takes up half the nation s entire law enforcement budget. The border patrol s budget alone has increased more than tenfold since 1970, to nearly $4 billion. Recent research by Professor Hanson, Scott Borger of the Department of Homeland Security and Bryan Roberts of Econometrica, based on data from the Department of Homeland Security, suggests that the most recent step-up of border enforcement may have had a bigger effect than previous efforts, accounting for one-third of the downturn in illegal immigration from 2003 to Yet the expansive border buildup has also had perverse effects, promoting the very pattern it was supposedly intended to curb. Enforcement increases the cost of crossing the border but also increases the payoff, because it raises the wage of those who get through, because there are fewer of them, Ms. Orrenius noted. So you can return to the market equilibrium that you had. Soon-to-be-published research by Professor Massey, Karen A. Pren of Princeton and Jorge Durand of the University of Guadalajara in Mexico, based on tens of thousands of interviews with migrants from nearly 150 Mexican communities, Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, at a news conference by the United States-Mexico border outside Laredo, Tex., in July. concluded that the odds of a prospective immigrant ultimately making it illegally into the United States remained above 95 percent until The probability declined to 75 percent after 2008, but by then economic and demographic forces had pushed net illegal immigration down to about zero. The border buildup did change immigration patterns, Professor Massey argued, but mostly in undesired ways. It didn t stop immigrants from making it in. But the rising cost of entry to the United States the higher smugglers fees, the greater odds of dying on the way ensured that those who made it stayed in the United States. What was once a pendular flow of Mexican men coming north to do seasonal work in a handful of states and returning to Mexico in the winter became a permanent community of full-fledged families that settled across the 48 contiguous states. Mr. Trump could blame the browning of America at least in part on the wall. In a cheeky bit of counterfactual analysis, the three researchers estimated that the tightening of border enforcement since 1986 actually added four million people to the population of immigrants living illegally in the United States in Nostalgia, of course, has no place for analysis. Analytical quibbles are unlikely to sway Mr. Trump or his followers. They might even take comfort from examples in history of nearly impregnable walls. East Germany managed to close itself off from the West from 1961 to 1989 with an effectiveness of 95 percent. It was expensive, though. It took nearly 30,000 guards to defend a boundary less than half the length of the Mexico- United States border. Border guards used land mines and shot to kill. They got help from the Stasi, monitoring every aspect of East Germans lives. This seems like a high price to pay to stop a trickle of illegal immigrants that is falling on its own to zero.

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4 Mainland 12 Obama Clinches Vote to Secure Iran Nuclear Deal By JONATHAN WEISMAN Senator Barbara Mikulski of Maryland on Wednesday came out in support of President Obama s Iran nuclear accord, the 34th Democrat in favor. Her decision gives Mr. Obama the votes needed to assure the deal will survive a congressional challenge. Some have suggested we reject this deal and impose unilateral sanctions to force Iran back to the table. But maintaining or stepping up sanctions will only work if the sanction coalition holds together, Ms. Mikulski, the longest serving female senator in history, said in a statement. It s unclear if the European Union, Russia, China, India and others would continue sanctions if Congress rejects this deal. At best, sanctions would be porous, or limited to unilateral sanctions by the U.S. Ms. Mikulski s decision came a day after Senators Chris Coons of Delaware and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania also announced they would support the deal. With 34 senators favoring the accord between Iran and six world powers limiting the country s nuclear program, opponents may still be able to pass a resolution disapproving the deal later this month, but they do not have the votes to override Mr. Obama s promised veto. And with momentum on their side, the White House and Senate Democrats next week hope to find seven more votes to filibuster the Republican resolution of disapproval. That would ensure the resolution would never leave the Senate, and Mr. Obama would not be forced to use a veto. Senator Barbara Mikulski Despite the continuing rancor on Capitol Hill, there was also growing recognition, even among some accord opponents, that the other nations Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia, and especially Iran would be unwilling to renegotiate the agreement even if Congress formally rejected it. In most cases, support for the deal has not been enthusiastic, as lawmakers have confronted one of the most divisive policy debates of modern times, with the security of Israel and the stability of the Middle East potentially at stake. But enough Democrats have come to the conclusion that killing the accord would be far worse than approving it. International sanctions that crippled Iran s economy and helped bring Tehran to the negotiating table are unlikely to be reassembled now that the United States partners have agreed to begin lifting them. And most Democrats have concluded that if Congress rejected the deal, Iran would be able to move more quickly toward a nuclear weapon. Republicans backed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel remain implacably opposed to the deal and have vowed to press forward next week with a resolution of disapproval. Senator Bob Corker, Republican of Tennessee and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, is asking Democrats not to filibuster the resolution so that it can come to a final up-or-down vote. How senators respond to that entreaty is still unclear, even if a veto override appears impossible. Supporters of the deal claimed victory. After a great national debate that has taken place over the past two months, rational argument, solid analysis and sober reflection have won over wild exaggeration, scaremongering and a flood of money, said Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of J Street, a Jewish pro-israel group that supports the nuclear deal. Supporters of the agreement, including J Street, were vastly outspent by opponents but almost every lawmaker who began this debate undecided and was willing to listen to both sides ended up supporting the deal. Bush-Trump Feud Intensifies in GOP Primary Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush escalated his feud with Donald Trump earlier this week, betting big he can re-energize his stalled campaign by challenging the billionaire businessman head on. It s a risky strategy for the former Florida governor, still considered the GOP front-runner by many party officials, but a move his advisers suggest is necessary to reverse Trump s unlikely ascension to the top of the 2016 presidential class. Bush intensified his criticism of the former reality television star on multiple fronts, first releasing a Web video featuring clips of Trump himself promoting traditionally liberal positions in old interviews. You d be shocked if I said that in many cases I probably identify more as a Democrat, Trump says in the video produced and promoted by the Bush campaign titled Liberal Things That Trump Says. In a subsequent Fox News interview, Bush charged that Trump is more a Democrat than a Republican. Speaking to reporters in English and Spanish in Miami later in the day, Bush said: He attacks me every day. He personalizes everything. If you re not totally in agreement with him, you re an idiot, you re stupid, you have low energy, blah, blah, blah. That s what he does. The Bush campaign reports that Tuesday s political assault was not an isolated incident, but part of a broader strategy to engage Trump more directly. While the two have traded jabs before, the approach marks a shift for Bush, who previously preferred to ignore Trump s bombast altogether. Trump has attacked Jeb s wife, his mother, he s taken him out of context and lied about his record, said Bush spokesman Tim Miller. It s incumbent upon us to not just set the record straight about Jeb s record, and not just fight back, but also expose Trump as somebody who s completely misrepresenting himself to voters. Miller promised the campaign would release more digital products, such as the video, in the coming days, while Bush would continue to be aggressive on the campaign trail. Bush, the son of one president and brother of another, is certainly not the first Republican presidential contender to go after Trump, yet he has the highest profile of the critics. The struggles of Trump s other critics offer a pointed reminder of the risks of confronting a man whose business is confrontation. Fighting with Donald Trump is like wrestling in the WWE, said Republican pollster Frank Luntz, himself the target of insults from Trump. It doesn t get you anywhere, and you know it s going to hurt. Trump released a Web video of his own later in the day highlighting Bush s praise for the Clinton family. And on Twitter, Trump noted that other presidential contenders have tried to take him on. He dismissed Bush s video as yet another weak hit by a candidate with a failing campaign. Will Jeb sink as low in the polls as the others who have gone after me? Indeed, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul have lashed out at Trump at times over the summer. Each man dropped in the polls as Trump grew stronger. Bush maintains an overwhelming fundraising advantage over much of his Republican competition but he, too, has struggled in recent polls. Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown noted that no candidate has suffered more during Trump s rise than Bush. Obviously, Trump has found at least for now a strategy that works, Brown said, adding that Bush may be trying to pitch himself as less of a policy wonk and more of a potential president who can dish it out as well as he can take it. Political operatives note that the next phase of the 2016 campaign is just beginning. After a summer season in which most voters typically don t closely follow national politics, many candidates, Bush among them, will start advertising on television in coming weeks. A pro-bush super PAC is set to spend $12 million on an advertising campaign to begin running in key states later in the month. Bush knows the contours of this primary will change by late fall and early 2016, said Republican operative Leonard Alcivar. He also knows his super PAC is weeks away from dropping millions of dollars in positive TV ads and mail highlighting his conservative record as governor. When that happens, no one will be talking about Web videos.

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6 Mainland 14 Biden Trip to Florida Raises Speculation About Presidential Run By GARDINER HARRIS As his political future remains the subject of intense speculation, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. will end a summer of grief and contemplation on Wednesday by traveling to South Florida, one of the richest grounds for raising campaign cash. His office and his advisers have been silent about whether the trip is intended to pave the way for a presidential run. There are nonpresidential explanations for everything on his schedule, which includes a speech at Miami Dade College, a $10,000-a-couple fund-raising dinner to benefit the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and a meeting on Thursday at a Jewish community center to discuss the Iran nuclear deal. In Atlanta on Thursday night, he will give a speech on foreign affairs at a synagogue. I don t know if Joe Biden runs for president, but I wouldn t read a lot into the tea leaves from him going to South Florida, said James Carville, a longtime Democratic political consultant. That s a regular stop on the itinerary of any senior Democratic politician s itinerary. Indeed, Mr. Biden has traveled to South Florida more than 30 times since taking office in 2009, an aide said. But this time is different. The Democratic firmament is seized with speculation about his intentions. On Tuesday, Senator Chris Coons, Democrat of Delaware, held a news conference to announce his support of the Iran nuclear deal a crucial endorsement for the White House. But Mr. Coons then said he would support Mr. Biden for president, a statement that got almost as much attention as his backing of the Iran agreement. Three months have passed since Mr. Biden s son Beau died, and a month has gone by since the news broke that he was considering entering the presidential race. In early August, Mr. Biden s confidants said Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., outside the White House last week, has traveled to South Florida over 30 times since taking office in 2009, an aide said. that the vice president intended to decide by early September. That means now. In more recent conversations, advisers have let the deadline slip, with some saying that Oct. 1 was a more likely date and others saying that he could wait until early next year. The longer he waits, the more difficulties he could face in putting together a successful campaign. The first Democratic presidential debate is scheduled for Oct. 13, and some states require that candidates qualify by early November to be placed on primary ballots. The Iowa caucuses will be held in February. But Mr. Biden s chances of winning the nomination, if he decides to run, may depend on whether Hillary Rodham Clinton s bumpy summer turns into a disastrous autumn or winter. And there are no signs that will happen. Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic operative, said Mr. Biden would undoubtedly ask a few of the wealthy donors he is meeting with on Wednesday about his chances. I think every time he goes out and does any kind of engagements now, he s gauging the reaction and seeing how people respond to him, Mr. Trippi said. I still don t see a pathway that makes it likely that he wins the nomination, though, he added. Ben Carson Campaign Reaping Cash as He Rises in GOP Polls Vacation-filled August is typically one of the worst months for any politician to raise money. But it was Ben Carson s best yet. The political novice, a retired neurosurgeon seeking the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, raised $6 million, doubling his July total, his campaign told The Associated Press on Tuesday. Carson s supporters have handed over roughly $20 million since he began raising money in March, making him a fundraising standout in a sprawling field of 17 Republican contenders. He enters the fall well-funded and rising in the polls, having carved out a niche as the mild-mannered version of bombastic Republican front-runner Donald Trump. Both appeal to voters and small donors who reject politics as usual. The doctor s campaign is unusually reliant on small donors when others have turned to super PACs for million-dollar checks. Trump, a multibillionaire, is largely paying his own way. Of Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, only Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has a higher percentage of small contributions, defined as $200 or less per election cycle, than Carson. The dollars have arrived through innovative marketing campaigns and brisk sales of swag. Carson for president ball caps have netted $700,000 and individually numbered lithographs of the doctor an additional $500,000. A 90-page abridged version of Carson s best-selling book Gifted Hands has sold 47,000 copies at $20 apiece. Even Carson s campaign bus dubbed the Healer Hauler by his fans and given its own Twitter handle became a fundraising opportunity. The vehicle will soon be adorned with the names of some 4,000 children whose parents each paid $50 for the privilege. Carson turns his attention to traditional political fundraising this month, as he attends 25 events across the country where price of entry starts at $1,000. And a trio of pro-carson super PACs and a nonprofit policy group in recent days got a boost when it became legal for his former campaign manager, Terry Giles, to coordinate their efforts. By law, Giles had to cool off for 120 days before joining the outside groups, which unlike the campaign, can accept donations of unlimited size. Carson posted strong initial fundraising numbers when his campaign filed its first two reports this year. Through the end of June, no In this Aug. 27 photo, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson speaks in Little Rock, Ark. Republican campaign had raised more except former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. (Govs. Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie hadn t been in the race long enough to file reports at the time.) Carson s money is paying for about 50 campaign employees and an intense travel schedule for the candidate. Campaigns aren t due to file their next fundraising reports, covering July through September, to federal regulators until mid- October. Most have been reluctant to share summer fundraising totals.

7 Mainland 15 Consumer Panel: Airlines Should Disclose Fees, Seat Size Airlines should clearly disclose the cost of change and cancellation fees, as well as the size of the plane s seats, before a passenger buys a ticket, a federal panel said earlier this week. Hotels should also be required to include any mandatory fees in their room rates, the Transportation Department s Advisory Committee for Aviation Consumer Protections recommended. Some hotels have begun adding mandatory resort and other fees to bills even though customers say they weren t informed of them when they booked their rooms. The panel s recommendation on hotels was directed to the Federal Trade Commission, which has been investigating such so called drip pricing. Likewise, the four-member panel heard testimony that passengers must search to find the cost of change or cancellation fees that airlines hide in a ticket s fine print. The fees can run hundreds of dollars, especially on international flights. The Transportation Department should require the fees be spelled out clearly so that passengers are informed before a ticket purchase, the panel said. The panel also recommended that the Transportation Department permit airlines to choose whether to allow passengers to make wireless voice calls from planes during flights. Airlines have also shrunk the distance between a seat and the one in front by as much as 6 inches in recent years. It used to be that 34 inches between the seats was standard for economy class seats. But now 31 inches is typical and some airlines have wedged in so many seats that there is as little as 28 inches of room. The width of seats is typically 18 inches but has been reduced in some cases to 17 inches, and there are indications some airlines may shrink them even more, said Charlie Leocha, head of Travelers United, the consumer advocate on the panel. Seat shrinkage has raised concern that passengers may get blood clots if they sit for a long time without the ability to move around, and that passengers may not be able to quickly evacuate a plane in an emergency. The Federal Aviation Administration requires that aircraft makers demonstrate that all passengers on an airliner can be evacuated within 90 seconds with half the emergency exits blocked in order for the plane to be certified. There have been no evacuation tests of airliners with seats 28 inches apart, Leocha said. The panel recommended the FAA conduct more realistic evacuation tests, including of planes with seats as close as 28 inches apart. Leocha said he was disappointed the panel didn t recommend the FAA issue regulations establishing a minimum amount of personal space that must be allotted per passenger. There are already regulations that set a minimum amount of space that pets on planes must be allotted, he noted. Panel member Dave Berg, an attorney with Airlines for America, a trade group for major airlines, said he objected to the notion that the government should establish a minimum amount of space per passenger. Difference between seat sizes goes to the heart and soul of airline competition, and it would be inappropriate for the government to interfere in such competition by a deregulated industry, he said. The FAA is not required to act on the recommendations. The airline passengers advocacy group Flyers- Rights has filed a petition asking the FAA to establish a minimum amount of personal space per passenger. Kentucky Clerk Turns Away Another Gay Couple Seeking Marriage License In this June 13, 2011 file photo, a fee sign is seen at Philadelphia International Airport in Philadelphia By ANN BLINDER Maintaining her stand against same-sex marriage, a Kentucky clerk on Wednesday rejected a gay couple s request for a marriage license and braced for a Thursday morning hearing before the federal judge who will decide whether to declare her in contempt of court. The Rowan County clerk, Kim Davis, spent much of Wednesday morning in her private office, but she emerged to deny the marriage license sought by Robbie Blankenship and Jesse Cruz, a couple from Ohio. What authority do you have under the United States Supreme Court? Mr. Blankenship called out as Ms. Davis left the scene of reporters, demonstrators, deputy clerks and law enforcement officials. None. You are a disgrace, he continued. You are a disgrace. Ms. Davis s decision came as little surprise to the people gathered in and around the courthouse here. The episode continued the clash of beliefs that has played out in Rowan County after Ms. Davis, citing her Apostolic Christian faith, defied the federal courts and refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. (Ms. Davis, who was elected last year, has also refused licenses to heterosexual couples.) Judge David L. Bunning, of the United States District Court in Ashland, will hear arguments on Thursday morning on whether Ms. Davis should be held in contempt. On Tuesday, lawyers for couples in a lawsuit to force Ms. Davis to issue the licenses asked Judge Bunning, an appointee of President George W. Bush, to fine Ms. Davis. Plaintiffs do not seek to compel Davis compliance through incarceration, the lawyers wrote in a court filing. Since Defendant Davis continues to collect compensation from the Commonwealth for duties she fails to perform, Plaintiffs urge the Court to impose financial penalties sufficiently serious and increasingly onerous to compel Davis s immediate compliance without further delay. Lawyers representing Ms. Davis could file a response in court on Wednesday. But in a statement on Tuesday, Ms. Davis said she would not change her position, which has made her a simultaneously revered and reviled figure. I never imagined a day like this would come, where I would be asked to violate a central teaching of Scripture and of Jesus Himself regarding marriage, she said in a statement issued through her lawyers on Tuesday. To issue a marriage license which conflicts with God s definition of marriage, with my name affixed to the certificate, would violate my conscience. It is not a light issue for me. It is a Heaven or Hell decision.

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll* Trump Clear GOP Leader, as Bush

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