Anadolu Cam OUTPERFORM (M) 04 December *Upside Potential 112% Equity / Mid Cap. / Glass. Hard to Ignore the Message in the Bottle...

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1 Equity / Mid Cap. / Glass 04 December 2007 Bloomberg: ANACM TI Hard to Ignore the Message in the Bottle... Reuters: ANACM IS Outperform maintained We have raised our 12-month target Market cap of to US$1.28bn reflecting recently announced capacity investments and improvement in the operational efficiency, implying 90% upside potential in US$ terms. s valuation is very attractive and we maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation for the stock. Aiming for regional leadership has been benefiting from lucrative growth opportunities in neighbouring countries, while dominating the domestic market. Anadolu Cam s current installed capacity is 1.66mn tonnes pa. With new capacities coming on stream, the Company s total domestic and international production capacities will reach to 915k tones pa and 1.55mn tones pa, respectively by High barriers for entry The glass packaging sector is protected against new competitors in the domestic market by the high barriers to entry, predominantly intensive capital requirements as well as s competitive advantage rising from Sisecam Group s vertically integrated structure which creates economies of scale. Ample room for growth at the domestic market Regarding glass containers, domestic market grew by 3% last year and the expected annual growth rate through 2010 is 6.8%. Low per capita glass container consumption and favourable demographic characteristics ensure high growth s sales to the domestic food and drink sectors. Well positioned in the Russian market has been predominantly serving the beer market in Russia until recently. The Company is the sole high-quality-light-weight beer bottle manufacturer in Russia supplying the licensed, local-premium and mid-class segments. The current market share of 42% in the beer bottle market is going to be raised even further with new capacities to be launched Company Report OUTPERFORM (M) *Upside Potential 112% TRY * Excluding dividend yield Stock Data TRY US$ Price at 03 Dec Month Target Price Mcap (mn) Float Mcap (mn) No. of Shares Outstanding 316 mn Free Float (%) Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) Market Data TRY ISE ,320 US$ Spot Rate US$ 12-Month Forw ard Price Performance (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn TRY US$ Relative to ISE Price / Relative Price Relative ANACM Relative to ISE Week Range (TRY) Key Estimates (TRY mn) ANACM E 2008E 2009E Sales ,037 1,334 EBITDA Net Income P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Dividend Yield (%) Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report. Kutlug Doganay

2 Summary of Key Financials Income Statement (TRY mn) 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E Revenues ,037 1,334 EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT Other income (expense), net (25) (27) (7) (7) 3 Financial expenses, net 6 (19) (13) (9) (13) Income from associates Minority Interests 1 (2) (27) (31) (43) Income before tax Taxation on Income (12) 10 (22) (23) (29) Net income Cash Flow Statement (TRY mn) Net Income Depreciation & Amortisation Indemnity Provisions Change in Working Capital 20 (71) (17) (35) (66) Cash Flow from Operations Capital Expenditure Free Cash Flow (42) (132) (60) 28 (79) Rights Issue Dividends Paid Other Cash Inflow (Outflow ) (26) Change in net cash (88) (149) (36) (9) (113) Net Cash (164) (314) (350) (359) (472) Balance Sheet (TRY mn) Property, plant & equipment ,044 Intangible assets Goodw ill Long-term financial assets Inventories Trade receivables Other Short-term receivables Cash & equivalents Other current assets Total assets 1,047 1,228 1,422 1,536 1,758 Long-term debt Other long-term liabilities Short-term debt Trade payables Payables to related parties Other short-term liabilities Total liabilities Minority Interest Total equity Paid-in capital Total liabilities & equity 1,047 1,228 1,422 1,536 1,758 Ratios CROE 1 (%) CROCI 2 (%) Net debt/ebitda (x) Net debt/equity (%) Capex/Sales (%) Capex/Depreciation (x) EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net Margin Valuation Metrics EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/IC (x) P/E (x) FCF yield (%) (5.4) (16.0) (7.6) 3.5 (10.0) Dividend yield (%) (Net Income + Depreciation + Provisions)/Total Equity 2 (EBITDA - Tax + Provisions)/(Fixed Assets + Depreciation + Working Capital) Company Overview is the glass packaging company of the Sisecam Group. manufactures returnable and non-returnable, light-weighted bottles for alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages; as well as bottles for cosmetics, pharmaceutical and food containers, in well-equipped production plants. Shareholder Structure (%) 20 Sisecam WACC Assumptions P/E 80 Float Risk-free rate 7.0% Equity risk premium 6.0% Beta 0.60 Cost of Equity 10.4% Cost of debt 8.2% Debt to equity (%) 40% Tax rate 20% WACC 9.4% Valuation Chart (x) EV/EBITDA (rhs) 01/05 09/05 05/06 01/07 09/07 EPS Estimates (TRY) E 2008E 2009E

3 Investment Rationale s installed capacity will be 50% higher in 2009 No threat is expected in the domestic market We expect the glass container market to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% in Turkey Russian operations are expected to play a pivotal role in s future Outperform maintained We have raised our 12-month target Market cap of to US$1.28bn reflecting recently announced capacity investments and improvement in the operational efficiency, implying 90% upside potential in US$ terms. Aiming for regional leadership focuses on regional leadership in the high growth areas in Turkey s immediate proximity. The Company s strategy puts it on a solid footing, enabling it to dominate the domestic market while benefiting from lucrative growth opportunities in neighbouring countries. s current installed capacity is 1.66mn tonnes pa. With new capacities coming on stream, the Company s total domestic and international production capacities will reach to 915k tones pa and 1.55mn tones pa, respectively by High barriers for entry The glass packaging sector is protected against new competitors in the domestic market by the high barriers to entry, predominantly intensive capital requirements as well as s competitive advantage rising from Sisecam Group s vertically integrated structure which creates economies of scale. Hence, no threat is expected from the entry of multinational companies in the Turkish market. Ample room for growth at the domestic market Regarding glass containers, domestic market grew by 3% last year and the expected annual growth rate through 2010 is 6.8%. Low per capita glass container consumption (9kg pa for Turkey compared to the EU-15 average of 39kg pa) and favourable demographic characteristics ensure high growth in domestic sales to the food and drink sectors. Over the next 5 years, we expect the glass container market to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% in Turkey. Thanks to its first mover advantage and well established market share (86% as of 2006), the company will be the main beneficiary of the current recovery in the glass container business. In fact, aims to hit 90% market share by 2009 thanks to the recent additional capacity at the Yenisehir plant. Well positioned in the Russian market has been predominantly serving the beer market in Russia until recently. The Company is the sole high-quality-light-weight beer bottle manufacturer in Russia supplying the licensed, local-premium and mid-class segments. However, with the recently started investment projects, the Company is going to gain some market share in the vodka, wine and mineral water markets. The current market share of 42% in the beer bottle market is going to be raised even further with new capacities to be launched. Given the advantages of cheap natural gas, electricity and labour as well as a high growth potential, the Russian operations are expected to play a pivotal role in s future. Risks Potential competitors investing in s periphery to capture market share at value-added products, possible hike in energy prices, competition from other materials in a highly competitive market place i.e. PET bottles, metal cans. The parent company, Sisecam has announced that it intends to lower its stake at down to 51%. Although we welcome the recently announced corporate actions, we may see some overhang on the stock in the short-term. 3

4 Valuation We based our valuation for mainly on the value derived by the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and verified the fair equity value with the Economic Value Added (EVA) method, yet theoretically both approaches yield identical results. Despite its limitation to capture future growth, we have also provided a brief international comparison for informative purposes to illustrate the discount of against its international peers while keeping in mind that it is hard to find a one-to-one peer. Our valuation of s both domestic and international operations imply a 12-month target equity value of $1.28bn, denoting an upside potential of 90% in US$ terms. Valuation Assumptions Our DCF valuation is based on IFRS-based consolidated free cash flows. We used a ten-year forecast between , and assigned a 2% terminal growth rate in US$ terms for the period beyond We have used the current US$ denominated 30-year Turkish Eurobond rate of 7.0% as the risk-free rate. We preferred a 6.0% equity risk premium in our WACC calculation which is higher than our house figure of 5.0% due to the low liquidity at the stock. The average WACC used in our DCF analysis is 9.4%. s domestic market share will hit 90% in 2009 Needs to build three furnaces to preserve its domestic market share Further growth in the international markets is not incorporated in our valuation We assumed that will maintain its leadership position in the domestic market and will raise its 86% current market share to 90% by s domestic installed capacity will be 915K tonnes (currently 750K tonnes) in Our conservative Turkish glass packaging market outlook indicates that will further need to build three new furnaces in 2009, 2013 and 2014 and carry its domestic installed capacity to 1.0mn tonnes pa in order to preserve its market share. We did not incorporate any other capacity investments abroad except the recently announced Krasnodar, Novosibirsk, Odessa and another plant at an undisclosed location in Russia to our valuation. We assumed that the product mix of the new facilities will be similar to the Ufa plants. However, the Company aims to increase the production of more value added products by adding new facilities in order to create a higher EBITDA margin. s local prices are in TRY terms and international prices are in RUB terms. The Company is able to increase the sales prices by the CPI of the countries it operates in. We assumed nine cold repair investments each worth of $10.0mn and $2.0mn maintenance costs per furnace in our projection horizon. A relatively conservative value attached to the participation portfolio We assigned a participation portfolio value of $86.0mn including s 14% stake in Soda Sanayi which is likely to be disposed. Note that, we used the market value of the listed participants and book value of the unlisted ones to stay on the conservative side. fully consolidates its overseas operations and the Company holds 51% stake in its subsidiaries. We have valued the minority interest at these businesses based on the target price-to-book and price-to-earnings multiples. 4

5 DCF Summary Discounted Cash Flows ($ mn) 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenues ($mn) ,075 1,121 1,160 1,243 1,322 1,361 1,402 1,444 Revenue Growth (%) EBIT EBIT Growth (%) NOPLAT Depreciation Change in Working Capital (33) (15) (39) (22) (9) (12) (19) (19) (9) (10) (10) Capital Expenditures (165) (213) (231) (65) (96) (66) (107) (109) (69) (84) (79) Free Cash Flow (29) (26) (39) PV of Discounted FCF 736 PV of Terminal 2.0% 874 Net Cash (Debt) 2006YE (230) Participations 86 Minority Interest (305) 12-Month Target Equity Value 1,276 Target Share Price (TRY) 5.30 EVA Summary Economic Profit Approach 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenues ($mn) ,075 1,121 1,160 1,243 1,322 1,361 1,402 1,444 EBIT NOPLAT Invested Capital ,045 1,011 1,065 1,022 1, , Economic Profit ($ mn) Continuing Value 1,608 Net Cash (Debt) 2006YE (230) Participations 86 Minority Interest (305) 12-Month Target Equity Value 1,276 Target Share Price (TRY) 5.30 Sensitivity Analysis Terminal Growth Rate 1, % 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 8.4% 1,575 1,581 1,587 1,593 1,599 WACC 8.9% 1,410 1,415 1,420 1,426 1, % 1,266 1,271 1,276 1,281 1, % 1,141 1,145 1,150 1,154 1, % 1,031 1,035 1,038 1,042 1,046 TRY/US$ Assumptions 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Average End of Period

6 International Peer Group Comparison We compared with its peers in international markets to provide an insight into the Company s place internationally. However, such a comparison may be inaccurate as the international peer companies are not comparable in size and their core business does not only include glass container manufacture. PEG Ratio indicates that Anadolu Cam s growth potential is underestimated Besides, peer group multiples indicate some 70% upside potential All in all, trades at an EV/Sales of 0.9x, an EV/EBITDA of 3.6x and a P/E of 7.6x based on 2009 estimated values. These figures imply significant discount compared to international peers (a harmonic mean EV/EBITDA of 7.0x and a P/E of 13.5x on 2009 estimated values). Besides its sizeable discount to international peers, the PEG ratio derived from 2009 expectations illustrates that s significant growth potential is underestimated by the market. International Peer Group Comparison EV/Sale s EV/EBITDA P/E PEG Company 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E Ratio Gerresheimer AG Vidrala Frigoglass SA Ow ens Illinois Inc Vetropack Zignago Vetro Harmonic Mean Implying $1,145mn target market cap, trades at a 41% discount to its peers on the basis of the harmonic mean 2009E EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples of its global peers. However, we think that deserves to trade at a premium with respect to its global peers, because of its higher growth potential in the respective period. EBITDA Growth vs. EV/Est EBITDA Frigoglass 9.0 EV/Est 09 EBITDA O-I Vidrala Zignago Vetropack Gerresheimer 3.0 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% EBITDA Growth (2006A-2009E, CAGR %) s Replacement Value We have also calculated s fair replacement value in order to reveal how the market undervalues the Company. Generally, the set-up cost of a furnace is $550 per tonne in the Eastern Europe. The replacement value approach based on 9M2007 figures, underestimating s dominant market leadership position and growth potential, indicates a fair equity value of $774mn. 6

7 SWOT Analysis Strengths Dominates the Turkish market with some 86% market share while consistently increasing its share in the Russian beer bottle market (currently 42%) Operating in a capital intensive sector creates a natural barrier to entry for potential entrants Fairly diversified breakdown of sales creates a natural hedge against a possible downturn in the domestic market Glass by its nature is known to be the most favoured premium packaging material Glass is considered to be difficult to transport. This creates a natural barrier for the low-cost international producers Long-lasting relations with top global customers. ranks 10 th in the world and 5 th in Europe in terms of installed capacity Weaknesses High investment campaign in the mid-run will lead to significant cash outflow Continuous production requirement: any closure and reopening would take about a month Opportunities Regional expansion to continue: is looking for new investment opportunities in its strategic periphery Low glass packaging consumption in Turkey (9 kg per capita in Turkey vs 39 kg per capita in Europe) Shifting towards more value added containers: wants to increase its presence in the Russian spirits market Use of more cullet in the production process, increased recycling leading to reduction in environmental liabilities and energy usage Increasing efficiency with a higher pack-to-melt ratio (the tonnage of containers packed for shipment as a percentage of the tonnage of glass melted in the furnace - typically varies between 85% and 94%, for 88% to 90%) Threats Global competitors forming joint ventures at neighbouring countries or investing in new glass packaging furnaces to capture market share at value-added products Possible hike in energy prices, accounting for 14% and 26% of the production costs in Russia and Turkey, respectively Competition from other materials in a highly competitive market place i.e. PET bottles, metal cans 7

8 The Company introduced its Yenisehir plant in 2006 Established in 1970, is the glass packaging company of the Sisecam Group. manufactures returnable and non-returnable, light-weighted bottles for alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages; as well as bottles for cosmetics, pharmaceutical and food containers, in well-equipped production plants. currently operates in Turkey, Russia and Georgia while it aims to become the leading glass packaging supplier in the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the Middle East regions through a focus on expansion. leads the domicile market with a market share of 86% while the Company controls 70% and 50% of the Georgian and Russian markets, respectively. Domestically carries out its activities in Istanbul-Topkapi, Mersin and Bursa-Yenisehir. Expanding demand in the mineral water market and premium bottle demand has resulted in a new investment at Yenisehir Bursa, which was commissioned in 2006 with 120K annual capacity. ignited its second furnace in May 2007 and carried the annual capacity to 240K tonnes. The Yenisehir plant compensated for the capacity losses after the shutdown of the Cayirova plant (installed capacity was 60K pa) and imports of in order to meet the excess demand in the domestic market. s current installed capacity in the domestic market is 750K tonnes pa. The Company reached a sales volume of 557K tonnes last year in the domicile market. made its first overseas investment in Georgia in It is a small furnace with 50K tonnes annual capacity, supplying Georgian, Turkish, and Azerbaijani markets. The Mina plant has suffered from political troubles between Georgia and its important export market, Russia last year and political dispute between both countries harmed economic relations. Thus, the second furnace investment which was due to start production in 2006 has been put on hold until the debate between the two countries clear up. Become the largest glass bottle producer in Russia within 5 years carries its Russian operations under the name of Ruscam. The Company has been growing quite rapidly in the region and has become the largest glass bottle producer in Russia within 5 years. With its well-positioned plants, in terms of proximity to its customers, s current installed capacity in Russia stands at 860K tonnes pa. The Company reached a sales volume of 615K tonnes last year in the international markets. In 2006, its overseas production exceeded that of Turkey. Glass Packaging Production (K tonnes) 1,400 1,200 1, International 1,171 Turkey % 88% 73% 63% 57% 48% % H2007 8

9 s Production Facilities Ruscam - Gorohovets 2 Ruscam - Pokrovsky 3 Ruscam - Novosibirsk 4 Ruscam - Krasnodar 5 New Acquisition 6 Georgia - JSC Mina 7 Ukraine - Odessa 8 Istanbul - Topkapi 9 Bursa Ynisehir 10 Mersin 11 Eskisehir s Projected Capacity Expansion Program Installed Capacity (K tons) E 2009E Topkapi Mersin Cayirova Yenisehir Eskisehir Sub Total - Domestic Capacity JSC Mina - Georgia Gorohovets Pokrovsky Ufa Krasnodar Novosibirsk Russian Acquisition Ukraine - Odessa Sub Total - International Capacity ,195 1,555 Total Installed Capacity 1,420 1,660 1,990 2,470 Value-added product mix will increase thanks to the recently announced investments Investments In order to meet the growing demand and achieve its goal of being the major market player in its geographical periphery, continues to expand its operations region-wide. The Company announced in late 2006 that it would like to establish two glass packaging furnaces with a total capacity of 240K tonnes pa in the Krasnodar region, Russia with 75mn investment. The furnaces are projected to be operational in June 2008 and June 2009, respectively. Currently, almost all of s international capacity is directed to beer bottle production. By introducing the Krasnodar plant, will increase production of premium bottles. In the first half of August, signed a Greenfield investment deal with the local administration to build a glass packaging furnace in the Novosibirsk region, Russia. The new furnace will be closely located to the Turkish brewery producer, Anadolu Efes plant. The investment is projected to amount 100mn with a total capacity of 240K tonnes pa. The furnaces are projected to be operational in June 2008 and June 2009, respectively. Meanwhile, will acquire another glass packaging plant in Russia with a capacity of 95K tons pa at a cost of 15mn. The Company expects the deal to be finalised by the beginning of The plant is utilized for the production of premium beer bottles and the expected life of the furnace is three years. Later, the furnace will be in need of a cold-repair* for another continuous production cycle that will last no less than ten years. * a glass furnace needs to be cold repaired in every years in order to be operational again 9

10 Entering the fast growing Ukraine market has recently initiated a new project in Odessa, Ukraine. The facility will have an annual capacity of 85K tonnes pa and supply glass packaging to the growing Ukrainian brewery industry as well as wine and champagne producers. The furnace will be commissioned in June The investment will only cost $35mn for as the Company will use the furnaces and equipments bought for the modernisation of the Mina plant. Note that, has postponed the additional capacity investment of the Mina plant due to the unforeseeable market conditions. With new capacities coming on stream, the company s total domestic and international production capacities will reach to 915k tones pa and 1.55mn tones pa, respectively by Needs to build three furnaces to preserve its domestic market share Taking into account the growth potential of the domestic market and in light of the company guidance, we have envisaged additional capacity increases through our projection horizon. Consequently, will build three additional furnaces in 2009, 2013 and 2014, in our view. In this period, there will be geographical relocations as the Topkapi plant s three furnaces will be relocated to a new location and be modernised along with a capacity increase in order to secure cost efficiency. Note that, has another land in Eskisehir province located at the Central Anatolia region which is big enough to house a three-furnace-plant. s land located in Topkapi can be utilised for mix-use projects (i.e. commercial, residential projects) and the Company can easily fetch $ mn from the sale of the land, in our view. Note also that, we did not include the value of this asset to our valuations. Glass Packaging Installed Capacity (K tonnes) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, International Turkey 1,100 50% 1,420 56% 1,660 57% 1,990 62% 2,470 63% E 2009E Supplies the major producers A Brief Look at s Sales s major customers are TEKEL, Anadolu Efes group companies (beer and Coca-Cola operations), Pepsi, wine producers, food companies (Penguen and Dardanel), pharmaceuticals (Eczacibasi Ilac, Atabey Ilac, Fako) and olive oil producers in the domestic market. In other words, supplies all the major food, beverage, mineral water and pharmaceutical producers in Turkey. Profit margins in the soft drinks market are lower than brewery and pharmaceuticals companies. s major clients in the international markets are SAB Miller, InBev, Baltika Brewery, Carlsberg, Pepsi Co, Coca-Cola, Tuborg, Barilla, San Pellegrino and Efes Breweries. s sales exhibit seasonality as the beverage and food sectors account for a sizeable proportion of sales, which are low between November and February and peak in the summer season. 10

11 Global Packaging Industry Overview According to the industry specialists, the size of the global packaging industry is estimated at approximately $470bn. The industry has substantially matured with growth rates closely mirroring world GDP growth. The global packaging industry is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.5% until 2014 (historically, the industry has exhibited a growth rate of 3-4%) in which the major amount of the growth, beyond debate will originate from the Asian and Eastern European countries. Growth rates vary from a low of 3.2% for beverages to a high of approximately 5% for health care products. Notice that, the average growth rates of sub-segments may exceed the industry growth such as the mineral water market. Main contributors to growth are flexible and plastic packaging formats thanks to strengthening demand from the packaged food and beverages markets respectively. Geographical Breakdown of Global Packaging Industry Others 8% Asia 27% Latin America 7% North America 28% Europe 30% largest end markets for packaging products are food and beverage While packaging companies serve a variety of markets, the largest end markets for packaging products are food and beverage. Food packaging accounts for approximately 38% or $179bn of all packaging applications. Beverages represent approximately 18% or $85bn. These end markets are stable, non-cyclical, steadily growing markets that are consequently attractive, regardless of the economic climate. Global Packaging Sector Breakdown Pharma 5% Cosmetic 3% Other 36% Beverage 18% Food 38% 11

12 The industry consists of four general segments classified by material type: paper and board, plastics, glass and metal. The largest segments of the industry are paper/board and plastics, which account for 36% and 34%, respectively, while glass packaging accounts for 10% of the global packaging market. Global Packaging Material Breakdown Metal 17% Glass 10% Other 3% Plastic 34% Paper 36% Glass containers are primarily used as a packaging material for beverages and food. Over the last two decades the three largest markets (beer, food, and soft drinks) have faced increasingly strong competition from metals, PET and other plastic materials, attributable to the plastics comparative advantage in terms of weight, resistance and costs. As a result, the total share of the container market held by glass has been reduced to nearly 10%. Although glass is still heavy and complicated to recycle it is still the most favoured premium beverage packaging. Glass Packaging Industry Overview In terms of glass usage, glass packaging comprises more than 50% of the total glass consumption through the world. Demand in the container glass industry is predicted to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 2% and in s geographical periphery Eastern Europe offers the highest potential of growth due to its proximity to the European Union and rising personal welfare. Sales are also supported by new product introductions as well. Global Glass Consumption Breakdown Flat Glass 32% Other 10% Glass Fibre 2% Glassware 4% Glass Packaging 52% 12

13 Average consumption of glass packaging per capita in Europe and EU-15 are 39kg pa and 46kg pa, respectively. This figure stands as low as 9kg pa for Turkey. Even though there are alternative containers like the PET or metals, glass containers are considered to be premium products and offer significant advantages over other forms of containers for instance, less leakages during shipments and longer shelf life. Global Packaging Consumption vs. GDP per Capita (2006) Per capita consumption in Turkey is very low compared to the Western Countries Glass Packaging Consumption (kg/year, per capita) Ukraine Bulgaria Fitted Line Greece France Italy Spain UK Germany Austria Sw itzerland 10 Romania Turkey 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 GDP per capita (US$, ppp) The glass packaging business has high barriers to entry in smaller markets as the customer base may be highly fragmented and there may be too many small to medium sized customers requiring a wide range of products in small volumes. A glass packaging furnace is highly capital intensive, typically costing around $50mn - $70mn according to size, location and product complexity. Once operational, it is designed to operate continuously, 365 days per year, throughout its campaign life, of between 10 and 12 years. Furnaces are normally capable of several campaigns following major ($5-10mn) repair/upgrade programmes. Generally, the set-up cost of a furnace is $550/tonne in the Eastern Europe while it is as high as $750/tonne in the Western Europe. The capacity utilisation rate of a typical glass packaging furnace may go up to 95% depending on the frequency of colour and weight changes made throughout the year. in Turkey Turkish packaging market experienced a steady growth since 1996 at a compound annual growth rate of 10%, except in 2001 the economic recession year. The increased variety of retail products created the need for new packaging types and sizes. The mandatory switch to packaged food products, due to EU regulations, and the boost in beverage consumption over the review years were the major aspects that backed this steady growth. s domestic market share will hit 90% in 2009 Regarding glass containers, domestic market grew by 3% last year and the expected annual growth rate through 2010 is 6.8%. leads the Turkish glass containers market with a market share of 86%. Marmara Cam with its small-scale plant (installed 30K pa) is the only competitor of. As glass is considered difficult to transport and thanks to more than doubled freight costs, import penetration is very low in the domestic market. In 2006, the total amount of glass containers imported was around 90K tonnes where 92% of the total jars and 41% of the total bottles were imported by. Meanwhile, aims to hit 90% market share by 2009 thanks to the recent additional capacity at its Yenisehir plant. 13

14 Turkish Glass Packaging Market Breakdown (in terms of tonne) Other 14% 86% will build three new furnaces in 2009, 2013 and 2014 which will carry its domestic capacity to 1.0mn tonnes pa s current installed capacity in the domestic market is 750K tonnes pa. The Company reached a sales volume of 557K tonnes last year in the domicile market. With new capacities coming on stream, the company s total domestic production capacity will reach to 915k tones pa by We have envisaged additional capacity increases through our projection horizon. Consequently, will build three additional furnaces in 2009, 2013 and 2014 which will carry its domestic capacity to 1.0mn tonnes pa, in our view. derives half of its revenues from the mineral water and food industries in Turkey. Sales Breakdown (in terms of tonne) Soft Beverages 19% Food 17% Mineral Water 35% Beer 15% Spirits 6% Pharma 6% Wine 2% Sales Breakdown (in terms of revenue) Soft Beverages 8% Food 17% Beer 13% Spirits 17% Mineral Water 33% Wine 2% Pharmaceuticals 10% 14

15 Breakdown of Sales (Volume) Mineral Water 35% Mineral Water Mineral water is very significant for the glass packaging industry in Turkey. Total annual consumption of mineral waters in Turkey is around 280mn litres. Per capita consumption is very low compared to the European countries i.e. 184lt in Italy, 142lt in France, 125lt in Germany, 91lt in Spain and 40lt in Poland. Turkish market offers a substantial growth potential in terms of mineral water packaging. Furthermore, flavoured mineral water has a significant effect on mineral water bottle sales which is a relatively new sub-segment in Turkey. We expect s mineral water bottle sales to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% for the next decade. Soft Drinks Carbonated soft drinks (CSD) and fruit juice sector is the second largest segment for in Turkey. The CSD sector succeeded to grow at 11% in The market share of glass bottles is 5% in the sector, while the main competitor is PET bottles. Soft Drinks 19% The fruit juice sector has grown 13% in the market share of the glass bottles is 6% in the sector while laminated carton packaging leads the sector with its 82% market share. We expect s sales in this sector to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% for the next decade. Beer Turkish beer market is estimated at approximately 850mn litres. Although the market experienced a contraction of 3% in 2006, it is expected to regain its growth pace thanks to encouraging growth in the tourism sector. As such, 1-2% annual growth rate is expected in the next five years. Be er 15% Glass bottles has some 52% market share with its returnable and non-returnable bottles. In the beer packaging, metal can is the major competitor of the glass whereas PET bottle has only 2% share in the market. We expect s sales in this sector to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.4% over the next decade. Food Containers Food sector is one of the leading sectors in terms of both production variety and the number of customers. Glass packaging, tinplate, plastic packaging and flexible packaging are in intense competition in the food sector. In the near future, various product categories such as jams, spreads, souses and dressing are expected to become new growth areas especially in the premium packaging segment. Food 17% There is a strong customer base which has been operating for major supermarket chains in Europe (UK s Aldi, French Carrefour, German Little) and growth is expected to be stimulated by these supermarket own-label-brand producers. We expect s sales in this sector to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% over the next decade. Spirits 6% Wine 2% Spirits & Wine The market share and sales in terms of volume of the spirits have declined due to high taxes imposed as a part of the tight fiscal policy of the Turkish government. On the other hand, the foreign investment by Texas Pacific Group to the privatised state monopoly, Mey Gida will trigger further growth, in our view. s market share is 70% in the spirits market. Premium bottles and attractive designs are crucial and key to growth in this segment. Domestic wine demand is about 100mn litres and expected to grow at 4-5% annually. Glass packaging has 97% market share while supplies 25% of this demand. We expect s sales in the spirits and wine sectors to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% over the next decade. 15

16 in Russia, besides a small acquisition in Georgia in 1997 (50K pa installed capacity), initiated overseas investments in Russia in 2001 and became the major glass packaging producer in the market within five years. Total production capacities in Russia will reach to 1.55mn tones pa by 2009 carries its Russian operations under the name of Ruscam. With its geographically well positioned three plants in terms of proximity to its customers, s current installed capacity in Russia stands at 860K tonnes pa. The Company reached a sales volume of 615K tonnes last year in the international markets. By 2006, its annual production overseas exceeded that of Turkey. With new capacities coming on stream, the company s total production capacities in Russia will reach to 1.55mn tones pa by current market share of 42% in the beer bottle market will be higher with new capacities has been predominantly serving the beer market in Russia until recently. It is the sole high-quality-light-weight beer bottle manufacturer in Russia supplying the licensed, local-premium and mid-class segments. However, with the recently started investment projects, the Company is going to gain some market share in the vodka, wine and mineral water markets. The current market share of 42% in the beer bottle market is going to be raised even further with new capacities to be launched. Brewery in Russia Russia is the third largest beer market in the world. Since 1999, per capita beer consumption has doubled to 66lt in 2006, but still below the EU average of 100lt. Beer production has reached 9.4bn litres last year and the annual estimated growth rate of the Russian beer market is 3% for the next five years. In 2006, 40% of the beer consumption in Russia was packaged in glass bottles. Brewery Bottling (bn bottles) E 2008E 2009E Glass New Glass Per capita consumption is also relatively low in Russia There is more room for growth for in the Russian glass container market. Per capita mineral water consumption in Russia is currently estimated at 22.6lt and it is expected to reach to 30lt in Mineral waters used to be consumed in PET bottles but there is a rapid shift to glass packaging thanks to the increased market segmentation. Wine accounts for approximately 10% of the total market excluding beer packaging and has an annual growth rate of 15%. Glass packaging dominates the sector with some 75% market share. Import restrictions on wine and champagne is expected to maintain double-digit growth figures in the Russian market. On the other hand, vodka production is expected to decline by 1.0% annually as a result of the Russian government s intention to control the vodka production and increase tax revenues. 16

17 There is a tendency towards glass packaging in the Russian soft beverages market. Coca-Cola has adopted the strategy to increase the use of glass packaging and Anadolu Cam signed a contract with the company in Russia. Glass Packaging (excluding Brewery) in Russia (bn bottles) E 2008E 2009E Glass New Glass in Ukraine has recently initiated a new project in Odessa, Ukraine. The facility will have an annual capacity of 85K tonnes pa and supply glass packaging to the growing Ukrainian brewery industry as well as wine and champagne producers. The furnace will be commissioned in June In recent years, the manufacturing of glass and glassware in Ukraine has been developing dynamically, internal consumption has increased, product range improved, and there has been a considerable transformation of the institutional and competitive environment. Growth in the Ukraine market is still favourable The Ukrainian glass container industry observed a steady production growth during years. Nevertheless, growth dynamics became less active as annual growth rates slowed from 23% in 2003 down to 7% in Local glass container producers satisfy 74% of the Ukrainian market. Glass Container Production and Consumption in Ukraine ( ) Volume, mln pcs Production 2,027 2,490 2,956 3,173 Exports Imports Domestic Consumption 2,337 2,694 3,141 3,339 65% % % 26% Local Products Imports Local Products Imports 17

18 Glass container production is still an attractive investment The main driver for increased glass container production is the food industry s development level as they are the primary customers for glass containers. Ukrainian macroeconomic parameters have been improving recently. The improvement is mostly observed in food, recycling, wine-making, and perfumery industries, and in a few other industries. There is evidence for a growing demand in glass containers, which is predicted to increase steadily in the near future. Therefore, glass container production is highly prospective and obviously attractive for investments. From a product range perspective, the State Statistics Committee s of Ukraine data indicates that glass bottles are the major container produced by the industry. Share of Different Glass Container Types in Ukrainian Glass Market (2005) Bottles 61% Cans 27% Pharma 10% Cosmetics 3% In 2005, a specialization tendency became more evident in the glass container segment. Several major tendencies in the Ukrainian glass container market in 2005 are as follows: Development of exclusive containers segment. Quantity of imported exclusive bottles considerably decreased, so that 70% of the internal demand is supplied by local manufacturers A tendency of growing demand for small containers. In Europe, Ukrainian companies have acquired a considerable popularity among international airlines, hotels, and as souvenirs. Ukraine is an attractive market for foreign investors Ukrainian glass packaging industry has been attractive for the foreign investors in the past few years. Due to the interest of multinational companies and major foreign investors, the competition in Ukrainian glass market became more intense. Generally, the competitive landscape of the glass market is not homogeneous. There is a group of industry leaders holding near-monopoly positions in particular segments of the market and possessing a higher level of technological, trading, and pricing competitiveness. Although the share of such kind of facilities is less than 5%, they produce over 75% of that particular industry s product volumes and thus create an increasingly competitive environment. As such, the industry is highly likely to be subject to consolidation and only companies responsive to the developing internal market dynamics will be able to maintain and improve their market shares in the coming years. 18

19 Breakdown of Cost of Production s cost structure is dominated by three main items: energy, raw materials and labour. Furthermore, the Company is hit by high depreciation expenses during periods of investment. In Turkey, high energy prices create a major pressure on the production costs. In Russia, the production cost is approximately 40% below Turkey due to lower energy and labour costs. Energy costs in Russia are almost one-third compared to Turkey Glass manufacturing is an energy-intensive process due to the large amount of energy required to melt and refine glass. The glass industry relies on electricity and natural gas to supply the bulk of its energy needs. Melting consumes the most energy of all the production processes. A combination of natural gas and electricity is used in a glass furnace. Energy costs in Russia are almost one-third compared to Turkey. However, the Russian government is on the way to increase the natural gas prices by 25% and electricity prices by some 20% in On the other hand, management feels comfortable to reflect the energy costs to its sales prices. Like the other Sisecam companies, started using natural gas by mid-2005 in its Turkey operations instead of fuel oil and gained sizeable cost savings as energy accounts for 20% of the glass container production costs. Sisecam Group s vertical structure offers an important competitive advantage for Main raw materials used in the production process are supplied by other Sisecam Group companies. enjoys the synergy offered by Sisecam Group in procuring crucial inputs and maintains long-term plans to strategically position its plants in terms of such procurement. Soda ash, a crucial input, is supplied by the publicly listed Soda Sanayii over the global prices and is free to procure it from the market. In Russia, it is supplied from two local Russian manufacturers while there is the option to purchase from Sodi of Bulgaria, a Sisecam Group affiliate. Other main raw materials (sand, dolomite, etc.) are supplied by Camis Madencilik. Some of the plants in Russia procure sand from Balkum. The steady supply of raw materials is essential in glass manufacturing and the Sisecam Group s vertical structure offers an important competitive advantage for. Cullet, a significant ingredient, is widely used in Turkey thanks to a modern collection system. is carrying out projects to boost the cullet collection rates to the EU standards. According to EU regulations, glass recycling ratio should be 60% which stands at 30% in Turkey. The main issues are costs associated with implementing a 60% recycling rate for glass packaging but it is neutral on the profit margins thanks to energy and raw materials savings. Others 13% Russia Depreciation 20% Personnel 21% Others 10% Turkey Depre ciation 15% Personnel 8% Ene r gy 14% Raw Materials 45% Ene r gy 26% Raw Materials 28% 19

20 does not incur any distribution cost, as customers are responsible for all transportation costs. Customers usually procure glass containers from s plants. The Company only incurs distribution costs through exports. Low-weight products have a higher margin Besides continuous efforts to increase production process efficiency, has been conducting serious R&D works to come up with lighter bottles while increasing their quality as lighter bottle means lower raw material cost. Also, profit margins are determined by product prices and weights, rather than costs. Low-weight products have a higher margin. Average Production Weight (gr) Q307 Results Q307 Results are promising posted $50mn net profit in the first nine months driven by $512mn revenues and generated $147mn EBITDA. recorded a top-line growth of 44% yoy in US$ terms thanks to additional capacities and an average of 6% price hikes at the beginning of the year. Note that, s current installed capacity is 1.66mn tons pa which was 1.42mn tons pa at the end of Ufa and Yenisehir plants second furnaces started commercial production in late 2Q06 and late 2006, respectively; and Ufa s third furnace was ignited in mid-july, adding 360K tons of installed capacity. Operational efficiency is back home enjoyed increasing sales prices together with subdued energy and raw material costs as soda ash expenses decline as the TRY appreciates against US$ and the Company s gross margin hit 30% in Q307. succeeded to dissolve operational inefficiencies that were faced during the ignition of first furnaces of the Yenisehir and Ufa plants due to infrastructural deficiencies and lack of know-how to run high-tech production lines. The management argues, and we agree, that 2006 was a transition period to adopt new production technologies and improve efficiency. 20

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