Emlak Konut REIT. Equity / Large Cap. / Real Estate Investment Trust. Bloomberg: EKGYO TI OUTPERFORM. Reuters: EKGYO IS.

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1 Equity / Large Cap. / Real Estate Investment Trust Emlak Konut REIT Bloomberg: EKGYO TI Reuters: EKGYO IS 01/06/2012 Company Report OUTPERFORM Upside Potential* 42% Good entry point for the long term investors We have slightly revised our DCF model for Emlak REIC and came up with a 12-month TP of TL2.91/share up from our former TP of 2.85/ share. Thus, we are upgrading our recommendation from MARKETPERFORM to OUTPERFOM, with a hefty 42% upside potential due to recent underperformance. Our positive view for the stock based on i) strong support from TOKI which will continue given the sizeable landbank of TOKI ii) housing demand to revitalize due to new laws regarding urban transformation: 2B lands (former forest lands) government did not formerly allow construction or agricultural activity now becoming eligible for construction and finally real estate sales to foreigners i.e reciprocity law, which will allow international real estate investors to buy property in Turkey iii) land tenders that gained pace in the first half of 2012, that is expected to continue in the second half; and finally iv) easing mortgage rates which supports the appetite for home ownership. New laws to revitalize housing demand in the medium to long run. Although slowdown in the GDP growth together with higher interest rates and oversupplied housing market in Marmara reduced the appetite for home ownership in 2012, new government regulations related to the urban transformation, sale of deforested lands i.e. 2B lands and changes in reciprocity law will surely give momentum to the construction sector in the medium to long run. Being the largest player in the market by far, Emlak will surely benefit from the rising demand. Land tenders unveil the hidden value in company s landbank. Looking at the historical data, Emlak REIC generated revenues from the land tenders which were on average 1.7x times higher than the appraisal value of the lands. On top of that the company managed to generate 1.5x times higher reveneues than the tender value at the end of the project, thanks to better than agreed revenue generation of the contractors. At the recent tenders which took place in 2012, the tradition did not change and the company managed to tender the lands at around 1.5x the appraisal value. Emlak REIC tendered three lands in Ayazma, Atasehir and Zekeriyakoy since the beginning of the year. While the highest offer for Ayazma, Atasehir and Zekeriyakoy lands stand at TL165mn,TL52mn and TL476mn, respectively appraisal values of these lands were TL110mn, TL52mn and TL253mn respectively. This alone offers an upside on the TL1.8bn landbank at hand. The company is expected to generate TL2.5bn income in the next two years, taking into account only the ongoing revenue sharing projects. Higher top-line and profitability are forecasted in Although presales figures are expected to deteriorate to 10K in 2012 from 12.6K units in 2011 due to the lack of sizable tenders that were realized in 2010, we expect Emlak REIC to post TL908mn revenues in 2012, up by 27% due to deliveries of the projects whose pre-sales were done throughout 2010 and On the other hand net income is envisaged to grow by 71% YoY to TL390mn in 2012 compared favorably with the TL228mn recorded in 2011, thanks to deliveries of luxury units with higher profit margins. Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report. 1 Stock Data TRY US$ Price at Month Target Price Mcap (mn) 5,125 2,771 Float Mcap (mn) 1, No. of Shares Outstanding 2500 mn Free Float (%) Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) Market Data TRY ISE ,099 US$ Spot Rate US$ 12-Month Forw ard Price Performance (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn TRY US$ Relative to ISE Price / Relative Price TL Relative EKGYO Relative to ISE Week Range (Close TRY) Burak Berki

2 Summary of Key Financials (TL mn) Income Statement (TL mn) 2010A* 2011A* 2012E 2013E 2014E Revenues 1, ,625 EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT Other income (expense), net (24) Financial expenses, net (74) Minority Interests Income before tax Taxation on Income Net income Balance Sheet (TL mn) Tangible Fixed Assets Other Long Term Assets 3,919 4, Intangibles Goodw ill Long-term financial assets Inventories ,898 4,294 3,555 Trade receivables Cash & equivalents 1, ,651 1,554 1,506 Other current assets Total assets 7,250 7,514 7,213 7,823 7,078 Long-term debt 1, Other long-term liabilities Short-term debt Trade payables Total Debt 1,256 1,100 1, Other short-term liabilities 931 1,536 1,906 2,328 2,148 Total liabilities 3,500 3,711 3,254 3,616 2,678 Minority Interest Total equity 3,750 3,803 3,959 4,207 4,400 Paid-in capital 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Total liabilities & equity 7,250 7,514 7,213 7,823 7,078 Ratios Net debt/ebitda (x) EBIT Margin Net Margin Valuation Metrics P/E (x) 9.0x 27.6x 13.1x 18.4x 10.1x Dividend yield (%) 0% 3% 2% 4% 3% *based on average Mcap during the year Company Overview Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS (Emlak Konut) is a Turkey-based real estate investment trust. The Company is a subsidiary of Housing Development Administration of Turkey (Toplu Konut Idaresi Baskanligi, TOKI). Its portfolio includes housing units, commercial units and estates. Shareholder Structure 25.0% 75.0% TOKI Float Other 2

3 Investment Summary Benefits from being controlled indirectly by the government. Through its controlling shareholder, TOKI, Emlak REIC has access to wide range of land under TOKI s protfolio without entering tenders and most importantly with limited regulatory procedures. Protocol between Emlak REIC and TOKI gives priority for Emlak REIC. To put it differently, Emlak REIC can demand a land owned by TOKI if it accepts to pay the appraisal value and based upon the protocol between the two, TOKI has to provide the land. On the other hand, revenue sharing model (RSM) provides vast advantages for Emlak REIC. While all risks related to the sales, construction, marketing and selling of the projects are undertaken by the contractors in the revenue sharing model (RSM), Emlak REIC bears all these risks in public procurement model (PPM). Note that around 80% of the company s projects are developped under RSM structure and remaining 20% are done via PPM. New laws to revitalize housing demand in the medium to long run. Although slowdown in the GDP growth together with higher interest rates and oversupplied housing market in Marmara region lessened the appetite for home ownership in 2012, new regulations related to the urban transformation, sale of deforested lands, i.e. 2B lands, and changes in reciprocity law will surely give momentum to the construction sector in the middle to long run. As Turkey suffered severely from the earthquakes in the past the government is currently conducting an urban transformation in order to have insecure buildings reconstructed. Around 3.8mn units, to say 45% of the total is in Istanbul, are expected to be reconstructed and will support the construction activities in the coming 10 years. Secondly, the government plans to finance the urban transformation from the cash raised from the sale of deforested lands. The estimated amount to be raised stands at TL26bn from the sales of 2B land. Finally, reciprocity requirement in real estate purchases was blocking the potential demand mainly from Gulf region and changes related to reciprocity will allow large number of foreign investors to invest in Turkish real estate sector. Land tenders unveil the hidden value in company s landbank. Looking at the historical data, Emlak REIC s revenues from the land tenders were on average 1.7x times higher than the appraisal value of the lands. In addition, Emlak received 1.5x times higher revenues than the tender value at the end of the project due to better than agreed revenue generation of the contractors. The company has 24 ongoing revenue sharing aggrements with an appraisal value of TL2.8bn and revenue share of TL4.5bn as of end of 1Q12, implying a multiplier of 1.57x. Thus there is a hidden value to be unveiled within the TL1.8bn landbank of Emlak REIC. Residential REIC s move in parallel with mortgage rates. Slowdown in the residential demand due to increasing housing interest rates put pressure on the pure residential developers stocks. Although developers offer favorable payment plans to its customers when housing rates increase in order to maintain the pre-sales volumes high, hike in the average monthly interest rates still affect pre-sales figures negatively. Average monthly interest rates increased to 1.4% levels for a loan with a 10-year maturity at the end of 2011 from 0.9% levels. This explains the underperformance of Emlak REIC, by 17% relative to ISE-100 in the last one year. Sizeable tenders in the pipeline pave the way for better revenue generation. Emlak REIC tendered three lands in Ayazma, Atasehir and Zekeriyakoy since the beginning of the year. While the highest offer for Ayazma, Atasehir and Zekeriyakoy land stands at TL165mn,TL52mn and TL476mn appraisal values of these lands are TL110mn, TL52mn and TL253mn respectively. In addition to these, the company plans to continue tendering lands in the remainder of the year. Higher top-line is forecasted in Emlak REIC pre-sold 12.6K units in 2011 corresponding to a turnover of TL3.2bn in 2011 which is 55% higher compared to TL2.1bn generated with 7.7K units sold in However expectations regarding the slowdown in GDP growth, tightening measures from CBT to cooldown the economy and increasing mortgage rates led to lower demand in the residential market. Emlak REIC announced sales and pre-sales figures for April The company sold 501 units in April 2012 corresponding to a turnover of TL177mn versus previous month s sales figure of 593 units and TL170mn revenues. These compare with 758 units in April 2011 with TL201mn sales revenues. April data carried total unit sales for the first four months of the year to 2,574 and revenues to TL744mn, down from 4,722 units in 4M11 with TL974mn revenues. Although pre-sales figures are expected to deteriorate to 10K in 2012 from 12.6K units in 2011 due to the lack of sizable tenders that were realized in 2010, we expect Emlak REIC to post TL908mn revenues in 2012, up by 27% due to deliveries of the projects whose pre-sales were done throughout 2010 and

4 Risk Factors New VAT law on the residential units may blur the picture. Currently VAT rate for units smaller than 150 sqm stands at 1% while it is 18% for units higher than 150 sqm. The government is currently working on a new legislation which will base the VAT on market value rather than the size starting June This will definitely affect the demand in Istanbul negatively if it passes. Note that the new law would be applicable for the building permits granted after 1st of June 2012 and will not have any affect on the on-going projects or projects whose building permits were already taken. Change in protocol signed with TOKI. Aforementioned best effort protocol with TOKI places the company in a unique advantageous position. Therefore any change in the protocol or ownership would be a threat for the sustainability of Emlak s business model. Delays in the upcoming projects. Altough operational risks are limited for the RSM projects, possible delays in the projects will defer the cash inflow and affect our valuation negatively. 4

5 Figure 1: Added Value From Revenue Sharing Model - Completed Projects (mntl) Base Value of Land at time of tender Tender Value Revenues at the end of the Projects Source: The Company Figure 2: Added Value From RSM - Tendered Projects (mntl) 1.57x Base Value of Land at time of tender Tender Value Source: The Company Figure 3: Avg. Int. Rates on Housing Credit 17,6% 18,2% 18,3% 18,6% 15,6% 14,4% 13,9% 13,3% 11,0% 11,6% 5

6 Figure 4: Unit Sales Over Years (As of April, 30) Source: The Company Figure 5: Total Sales (TL) (As of April, 30) Source: The Company Figure 6: Monthly Unit Sales

7 Valuation Summary We have valued Emlak REIC via sum of the parts (SOTP) method, in which we have valued each asset through seperate DCF, including revenue sharing projects, public procurement projects, buildings at hand and lands. We have included the aforementioned Zekeriyakoy, Atasehir and Ayazma projects into our valuation as well, as their tender process has been completed. Accordingly we have reached a target Mcap of TL7.3bn, implying an upside potential of 42%. We have used a TL based risk free rate of 10%, an equity risk premium of 6% and beta of 1.0x which yielded a WACC of 14.6% Since the REICs are exempt from corporate tax, no corporate tax is calculated for the company throughout the forecast horizon. Under the revenue sharing model (RSM), we assumed that revenues will exceed the set minimum level by an average of 45% and contractors will complete the pre-sales of the units within two - three years of time, benchmarking the previous projects. In Public Procurement Projects (PPP), we have taken 30% EBITDA margin for all projects and projected Emlak to deliver the units within two years. We have increased the operational expenses in-line with the TL inflation rate annually and used a terminal growth rate of 4% for operational expenses in TL terms. Buildings at hand are added to our valuation via their appraisal values. We have added the lands at hand to our valuation with a relatively conservative multiplier of 1.4x of the appraisal value where the company s historical tenders offer 2.5x of the appraisal value. Sum of the Parts (TLmn) Value Revenue Sharing Projects Ongoing Public Procurement Projects 296 Buildings 147 Lands at hand as of 1Q Operational Expenses (-) 637 Net Debt (-) 409 Total # shares Target Share Price 2,91 Current Share Price 2,05 Upside 42% 7

8 This report has been prepared by İş Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş. (İş Investment) solely for the information of clients of İş Investment. Opinions and estimates contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are given according to the investment advisory contract, signed between the intermediary institutions, portfolio management companies, investment banks and the clients. Opinions and recommendations contained in this report reflect the personal views of the analysts who supplied them. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial positions and with the assistance of independent advisors, as they believe necessary. The information presented in this report has been obtained from public institutions, such as Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Capital Market Board of Turkey (CMB), Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBT); various media institutions, and other sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. All information in these pages remains the property of İş Investment and as such may not be disseminated, copied, altered or changed in any way, nor may this information be printed for distribution purposes or forwarded as electronic attachments without the prior written permission of İş Investment. ( This research report can also be accessed by subscribers of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. 8

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