Global Forecast Update

Transcription

1 Volatility + Uncertainty Stronger Global Growth The global economy continues to struggle, with China's slowdown, the downward bias in commodity prices, and the renewed increase in financial market turbulence risking further weakness. There are not enough growth engines around the world. Only the U.S., the U.K. and India can be considered relative outperformers, countries which appear to be the most resilient and have the potential to generate stronger, and importantly, more sustainable activity. In contrast, most nations and regions are reporting moderate output growth. And a number of large nations, including Brazil, Russia and Venezuela, are still mired in recession. Financial market volatility around the world has increased dramatically in recent weeks. The large and synchronized sell-off in global stock markets, followed by only a partial rebound, continues to grind lower and highlights a downgraded assessment of economic conditions and corporate earnings. The increase in risk aversion has put added downward pressure on already low sovereign bond yields throughout the advanced economies, and even in the U.S. where strengthening employment and output growth threaten to boost wages and inflation. Around the world investor confidence is being challenged. China s continuing underperformance is highlighted by the slump in manufacturing and two-way trade. Commodity prices remain under pressure. Many international currencies are being marked lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, a trend reinforced by the Renminbi's mid-august devaluation. Concerns surrounding debt sustainability in many overseas jurisdictions have resurfaced, especially with regard to U.S. dollardenominated liabilities. Geopolitical issues remain ever-present. And there is the uncertainty surrounding the extent of rate hikes once the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to normalize ultra-low borrowing costs, possibly later this year Contents Overview Forecasts International Commodities... North America... 5 Provincial... 6 Financial Markets Global Growth Slowdown Persists manufacturing PMI, diffusion index, SA Global China U.S. 6 1/15 3/15 5/15 7/15 E.U. Source: Markit, ISM, Scotiabank Economics. In this environment, business investment less than buoyant to begin with internationally is at risk of a further slowdown in response to the increased economic uncertainty, the absence of a discernible pick-up in global demand and trade, and the forthcoming production adjustments needed to redress overcapacity in some sectors and particularly in the commodity-related areas. Accordingly, prospects for global growth are likely to remain on the softer side for the time being. The biggest downside risks are in the resource-sensitive regions. Many emerging market and developing nations ranging from the Asia-Pacific region to Latin America are being negatively affected by the combination of the slowdown in China, the decline in commodity prices, persistent U.S. dollar strength, and the intensifying weakness in currency and financial markets. More advanced economies including, Mexico and Australia are also being squeezed by the investment, output and employment adjustments needed to rebalance operating conditions to the new reality of oversupply, lower prices and reduced earnings. The price of WTI crude oil recently reversed its spring-time run-up, and is currently trading nearer the lower end of a US$-6/barrel range this year. Geopolitical events and recurring volatility aside, underlying fundamentals Scotiabank Economics Scotia Plaza King Street West, 63rd Floor Toronto, Ontario M5H 1H1 Tel: Fax: scotia.economics@scotiabank.com This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. is available on scotiabank.com, Bloomberg at SCOT and Reuters at SM1C

2 suggest that crude oil prices will likely remain on the weaker side for longer. The global market remains significantly oversupplied, but other factors are also at play, including the strong U.S. dollar and questions over prospective demand in a slower-growth environment. Although this situation is not sustainable over the longer term given the generally higher production costs in most producing regions outside of the Middle East, the needed adjustments to restore market balance will take longer to materialize since OPEC nations are continuing to boost oil output, while U.S. shale production remains quite resilient and worldwide inventories are very large. Moderate growth and weak prices for many key commodities besides oil are reinforcing the likelihood of a more prolonged period of very low overall inflation. Increasingly, more and more policymakers around the world are favouring easier credit conditions and weaker domestic currencies to provide some relief. The recent monetary easing by China, in addition to prior initiatives aimed at supporting slumping equity markets and a bias towards a weaker Renminbi, highlights the concern over deteriorating economic prospects. The amount of fiscal stimulus has been more modest, though many jurisdictions, including and most countries within the Pacific Alliance, are bolstering infrastructure spending to help boost flagging demand. The challenging conditions around the world do pose some risk to the U.S. outlook. The softer global environment coupled with persistent U.S. dollar strength has the potential to weigh on U.S. growth. Weaker exports and stronger imports are already resulting in a reduction in net trade, while profits from foreign earnings will be increasingly pressured. Business investment outside of the tech sector will also be constrained, primarily by the softness in energy-related expenditures, but also in agriculture and other sectors affected by the decline in commodity prices. Nevertheless, the U.S. expansion appears to be on a more sustainable growth trajectory, with the latest upward revision to second quarter real GDP highlighting the solid support provided by domestic spending. Consumer and housing-related activity are benefiting from continuing and large job gains, improved household balance sheets, comparatively low mortgage rates, and even lower prices at the pump. Orders and investments in the non-resource sectors are gradually improving again. Data for the third quarter are only preliminary, though early indications suggest that American consumers are still confident and willing to spend on 'big-ticket' items cars, homes, and home improvements and increasingly on services, particularly restaurants and health care. The Fed is poised to raise short-term interest rates, with expectations being deferred to December. But the timing and extent of prospective rate hikes will depend upon the strength of the U.S. expansion and core inflation, and the potential for any spillover from the volatile financial market and economic conditions around the world. The composition of the Fed s portfolio of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, together with potential asset allocation shifts from core creditors such as China and Japan, will be an important driver of long-term yields over the next year. Economies which are cyclically aligned to the U.S. business cycle, ranging from to Mexico and the Caribbean, should benefit from rising U.S. demand and more competitive currencies. Transportation equipment, machinery, and building materials industries, as well as tourism, should benefit. Household spending in should remain relatively resilient, bolstered by exceptionally low borrowing costs and continuing gains in the large and diverse service sector. For s non-resource industries, gains have been more uneven than expected, but output growth in Ontario, British Columbia and Manitoba this year and next is still expected to be reasonably firm. However, business investment, particularly in the large resource-dominated sectors and regions, will be further constrained this year and next. The contraction in Alberta this year is now steeper, and the 16 rebound more muted, reflecting the broadening impact of a more hesitant recovery in oil & gas investment. Helping to sustain s growth this year and next are elevated infrastructure commitments from Ottawa and the majority of the Provinces. Moreover, while we expect the Bank of will remain on hold through 16 with core inflation currently above %, there is an increasing risk of an even more accommodative policy if the country s economic underperformance persists. The current softness in the global economy is expected to give way to renewed economic traction as the drag from structural adjustments and financial market instability abates. Considerable pent-up demand in the U.S. should underpin steady consumer spending and housing-related gains. Increasing monetary and fiscal stimulus should help stabilize conditions in China. Persistently low borrowing costs and low oil prices remain supportive of improved economic performances internationally. And in contrast to the Great Recession, many banks around the world are much better capitalized and capable of financing increased activity.

3 International f 16f Real GDP (annual % change) World (based on purchasing power parity) United States Mexico United Kingdom Euro zone Germany France Italy Spain Russia Turkey China India Japan South Korea Indonesia Australia Thailand Brazil Colombia Peru Chile Consumer Prices (y/y % change, year-end) United States Mexico United Kingdom Euro zone Germany France Italy Spain Russia Turkey China India* Japan South Korea Indonesia Australia Thailand Brazil Colombia Peru Chile * Wholesale Price Index used prior to 1. Forecast Changes International We have trimmed our global growth forecast for this year to 3.%, with downward adjustments to most countries outside of the U.S. and the U.K. Incoming economic indicators suggest that the euro zone recovery remains on track; however, the growth outlook has been tempered by months of political uncertainty in Greece and recent turmoil in China. We have edged down our euro zone growth forecast to 1.3% in 15 and 1.6% in 16 (from 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively). Similarly, we have lowered our estimate for French real GDP growth to 1.% in 15 and 1.3% in 16 (from 1.1% and 1.%) due to the moderation in private-sector activity. The inflation outlook in the euro zone s four largest economies has also softened, leading us to lower our year-end euro zone inflation forecast to.% this year and 1.% in 16. We have revised our Chinese real GDP growth forecast downwards on the back of ongoing evidence of a slowdown portrayed by subdued high frequency indicators in industrial production, retail sales and exports. We now expect the country s output to grow by 6.8% this year (still in line with the official target of around 7% ) and 6.% in 16. The August bombings in Bangkok will slow the Thai economic recovery as the tourism industry has been one of the key drivers of growth. Accordingly, we have lowered Thailand s real GDP growth forecast to 3.% for this year and to 3.6% for 16. We have also incorporated an additional interest rate cut into our forecast. We have revised lower our Indian real GDP growth forecasts following a soft Q result, and now expect the economy to advance by 7.3% and 7.6% in 15 and 16, respectively. Brazil s contraction in real GDP has been deepened to.5% in 15, with the recession persisting into next year. Accordingly, we have weakened the profile for the Brazilian real. 3

4 International f 16f Current Account Balance (% of GDP) United States Mexico United Kingdom Euro zone Germany France Italy Spain Russia Turkey China India Japan South Korea Indonesia Australia Thailand Brazil Colombia Peru Chile Commodities (annual average) WTI Oil (US$/bbl) Brent Oil (US$/bbl) Nymex Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) Copper (US$/lb) Zinc (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) Gold, London PM Fix (US$/oz) 79 1,66 1,17 1,15 Pulp (US$/tonne) 75 1, Newsprint (US$/tonne) Lumber (US$/mfbm) Annual % change Provincial GDP 1* 15f 16f Index:Q1=1 Natural Gas Commodity Price Trends Nickel WTI Oil Copper Forecast Changes International Persistently weak commodity prices coupled with fragile domestic economic conditions prompted a downward revision to our real GDP growth forecast for Chile over the next two years. The Colombian economy continues to adjust to a weaker currency environment driven by a sharp decline in energy export receipts. Peso (COP) depreciation has given rise to above-target inflation. The economy is expected to expand by.8% this year, with risks tilted to the downside. We have lowered exchange rate forecasts in all floating Latin American currencies through the end of 16. Commodities Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index dropped 6.7% m/m in July and plunged in August well below the 8 recessionary low. Prices have been pressured by a very strong U.S. dollar, the prospect of a Fed funds rate hike, potentially in September, and the recent double-digit drop in China's equity markets, calling into question the possibility of a harder landing in China. Concern over a further slowdown in China has taken a toll on base metal prices. However, it appears that base metals are oversold and should rally moderately in the Fall as Chinese buyers take advantage of discounted prices. Oil prices have been exceptionally volatile in 15 and will remain so over the forecast period. While global demand has advanced at the strongest pace in five years, lack of a significant downward adjustment in supplies has kept prices low. WTI oil is expected to remain below US$5 for the next 1 months, before strengthening in late alongside a significant cutback in world supplies NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC * 1 data are preliminary GDP by industry estimates. Source: Statistics, Scotiabank Economics. 1 Gold Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.

5 North America f 16f (annual % change) Real GDP Consumer Spending Residential Investment Business Investment Government Exports Imports Nominal GDP GDP Deflator Consumer Price Index Core CPI Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Employment thousands of jobs Unemployment Rate (%) Current Account Balance (C$ bn.) Merchandise Trade Balance (C$ bn.) Federal Budget Balance (C$ bn.) per cent of GDP Housing Starts (thousands) Motor Vehicle Sales (thousands) 1,66 1,851 1,855 1,855 Motor Vehicle Production (thousands),1,39,3,9 Industrial Production United States Real GDP Consumer Spending Residential Investment Business Investment Government Exports Imports Nominal GDP GDP Deflator Consumer Price Index Core CPI Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Employment millions of jobs Unemployment Rate (%) Current Account Balance (US$ bn.) Merchandise Trade Balance (US$ bn.) Federal Budget Balance (US$ bn.) per cent of GDP Housing Starts (millions) Motor Vehicle Sales (millions) Motor Vehicle Production (millions) Industrial Production Mexico Real GDP Consumer Price Index (year-end) Current Account Balance (US$ bn.) Merchandise Trade Balance (US$ bn.) Forecast Changes & United States We have lowered our forecast for Canadian GDP growth this year and next, to 1.% and 1.7%, respectively, to reflect a sharper pullback in resource activity. While consumer and housing activity remain reasonably buoyant, persistently weak commodity prices are weighing on industrial output and business investment. Non-resource exports have been slow to turn up, but should benefit from improving U.S. demand and a more competitive currency. Increased infrastructure investment also is supportive. We have raised our forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year from.3% to.5% following a sharp upward revision to Q output. However, we have built in a slightly more moderate growth profile for the second half of this year and into 16 to reflect the dampening impact of a stronger U.S. dollar and heightened global uncertainty on U.S. investment and exports. Growth next year is pegged at.6%, down. percentage points from our prior forecast, with consumer spending and housing activity the main drivers. For s federal budget balance, the dampening impact of weaker commodity prices and lower nominal GDP through calendar 16 suggests that balanced books in fiscal and will require difficult decisions. In the United States, strong federal revenue growth is supporting a fiscal 15 deficit narrower than US$5 billion. Mexico Mexico s economic outlook remains tied to the U.S. business cycle and influenced by the policy shifts to normalize monetary conditions in the United States. We expect that inflationary pressures as a result of the % depreciation of the peso over the past 1 months will become more evident in 16, and have adjusted our end-year inflation forecast upwards accordingly. We have also fine-tuned our view on the Mexican peso, incorporating a weaker profile into the outlook. 5

6 Provincial f 16f f 16f Forecast Changes Real Real GDP* GDP* Budget Balances, FY FY March March (annual % change) % change) ($millions) ,1-5,15 1,5 Newfoundland & Labrador & Labrador ,93 Prince Edward Island Island Nova Scotia * -98 New Brunswick Quebec ,8 -,35 Ontario ,77-1,53-1,933-8,51 Manitoba ** Saskatchewan ** * -9 Alberta ,3 ** -3 1,115 * -5,88 British Columbia ,683 * 8 *1 * 1 data are data preliminary are GDP by preliminary industry estimates. estimates of GDP by industry at basic prices. Employment Unemployment Rate Rate (annual % change) % change) (annual average, average, %) %) Newfoundland & Labrador & Labrador Prince Edward Island Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Housing Starts Starts (annual, thousands thousands of units) of units) * Final for FY15; Other FY15 & FY16: Provinces' estimates. ** MB:FY-FY13; AB:FY5-FY13; SK:FY16 ex pension accrual adjustment.. Motor Vehicle Vehicle Sales Sales (annual, thousands of units) of units) ,66 1,851 1,855 1,855 Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Provinces Our lower oil price outlook, plus several negative one-time events such as a severe agricultural drought, suggest a steeper 15 decline in Alberta s real GDP. In 16, with the broadening impact of the oil & gas sector s correction, a muted recovery is expected to leave Alberta s annual output virtually unchanged from 15. In Newfoundland and Labrador, sharply lower offshore oil production this year is undercutting its 15 real GDP, but this likely will limit the further output contraction anticipated for 16. For non-resource industries, gains are more uneven than expected this year, but reasonably solid real GDP growth through 16 is still forecast for Ontario, British Columbia and Manitoba. For wholesale trade, the solid 5.3% y/y national rise during the first half of 15 was supported by Ontario's 7.3% advance. Alberta's wholesale receipts, however, slipped 1.% below year-earlier levels. From January to June this year, low oil prices have trimmed gasoline station receipts across by almost 17% y/y, though provincial declines have varied from % in Nova Scotia to 1% in British Columbia. Excluding gasoline stations, national retail sales have climbed 5.% y/y, led by a rise of 1.3% in British Columbia, 7.% in Ontario and 5.6% in New Brunswick. Alberta s Q1 report indicates a 9.3% (+$6 million) rise for its fiscal (FY16) Capital Plan, on top of the sizeable increase already scheduled, reinforcing elevated federal and provincial infrastructure plans. Our revised forecasts through 16 suggest difficult trade-offs going forward for a number of Provinces in order to stay on track with their Budget plans, as the first quarter updates for Saskatchewan and Alberta indicate. 6

7 Quarterly Forecasts 1 15 Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3f Qf Q1f Qf Q3f Qf Real GDP (q/q, ann. % change) Real GDP (y/y, % change) Consumer Prices (y/y, % change) Core CPI (y/y % change) United States Real GDP (q/q, ann. % change) Real GDP (y/y, % change) Consumer Prices (y/y, % change) Core CPI (y/y % change) Financial Markets Central Bank Rates Americas (%, end of period) Bank of U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Mexico Central Bank of Brazil Bank of the Republic of Colombia Central Reserve Bank of Peru Central Bank of Chile Europe European Central Bank Bank of England Swiss National Bank Asia/Oceania Reserve Bank of Australia People's Bank of China Reserve Bank of India Bank of Korea Bank Indonesia Bank of Thailand month T-bill year year year year United States 3-month T-bill year Treasury year Treasury year Treasury year Treasury U.S. Spreads 3-month T-bill year year year year

8 Financial Markets Exchange Rates Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3f Qf Q1f Qf Q3f Qf Americas (end of period) Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Canadian Dollar (CADUSD) Mexican Peso (USDMXN) Brazilian Real (USDBRL) Colombian Peso (USDCOP) Peruvian Nuevo Sol (USDPEN) Chilean Peso (USDCLP) Canadian Dollar Cross Rates Euro (EURCAD) U.K. Pound (GBPCAD) Japanese Yen (CADJPY) Australian Dollar (AUDCAD) Mexican Peso (CADMXN) Europe Euro (EURUSD) U.K. Pound (GBPUSD) Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Swedish Krona (USDSEK) Norwegian Krone (USDNOK) Russian Ruble (USDRUB) Turkish Lira (USDTRY) Asia/Oceania Japanese Yen (USDJPY) Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) Chinese Yuan (USDCNY) Indian Rupee (USDINR) South Korean Won (USDKRW) Indonesian Rupiah (USDIDR) Thai Baht (USDTHB) Central Bank Rates Global Inflation 1-Year Yields 7 % 1 y/y % change 7 % U.S. U.K. 6 China Forecast 5 U.S. Forecast 3 Forecast 3 1 Euro zone - U.S. Euro zone Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. 8