Thirty-six years of Weapon and Serious Violent Offending in Ohio: How Data Can Inform Policy (Final Report)

Transcription

1 Thirty-six years of Weapon and Serious Violent Offending in Ohio: How Data Can Inform Policy (Final Report) Deanna L. Wilkinson, Ph.D., Associate Professor The Ohio State University, Department of Human Development and Family Science Prepared for the Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s Violent Crimes with Guns Advisory Task Group. April 9, Columbus, Ohio 1

2 Project Overview 9 month data analysis project that began in late July, 2011 Contract to OSU for $48,650 Funded 75% of Dr. Wilkinson s time August, 2011-February, 2012 OSU Institutional Review Board granted approval for the project in September,

3 Project Overview (continued) Major data sources used: BCI Computerized Criminal History database , ODRC data file Monthly reporting on progress to the AG s violent crimes with gun task group Discussion lead inquiry 3

4 4

5 ALL OFFENSES* Charges 6,406,890 Convictions 2,376,472 Confinements 1,684,921 Ohio, *does not include cases in which missing data was a problem. *2,126,555 offenders 5

6 ALL VIOLENT OFFENSES* Charges 2,224,510 /419,154 Convictions 253,154 Confinements 191,730 High Rate Violent Off. 35,418 Ohio, *does not include cases in which missing data was a problem. Includes: aggravated murder, murder, voluntary manslaughter, involuntary manslaughter, agg. robbery, robbery, felonious assault, agg. assault, aggravated burglary, rape, agg. arson, arson, extortion, and aggravated drug trafficking 6

7 Charges WEAPON OFFENSES* Arrests 294,302 / 182,674 Convictions 99,735 / 57,520 Confinements 55,512 / 19,799 Individuals Ohio, *does not include cases in which missing data was a problem. Includes: violations of the Ohio Revised Code (B)(4), (A), , , , , , (B), , , , , ,

8 Questions We Can Address with Data Who is committing status weapon offenses? Where is it happening most often? What are the patterns over time? What is the relationship between gun charges and violent crime? Who is the greatest threat to society? What proportion of violence are high rate offenders committing? 8

9 Figure 1.1 Number of Weapon Convictions by Cohort (n=65,666) 28.5% are dismissed Includes: (B)(4), (A), , , , , , (B), , , , , ,

10 Figure 1.2. Trends in Age of 1 st Weapon Arrest by Cohort (n=65,666) Peak Peak Peak Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

11 Figure 1.3. Number of Arrests among Weapon Offenders Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

12 Figure 1.4. Number of Incarcerations among Weapon Offenders 12

13 Map 1.1. Rank Order of Top Ohio Counties with the Highest Numbers of Weapon Offenders Mapping Trends 12 Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

14 Figure 1.5. Number of Weapon Offenders by County for Top Counties by Cohort Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

15 Answers: What happens at each decision point with a gun specification? At the arrest stage a high proportion of weapon offenses are dismissed and do not result in a court decision (69.2%). At the prosecution stage, 28.5% of weapon offenses are dismissed. In many cases, the weapon is dismissed while a violent offense results in a conviction. At the incarceration stage, there is variation in whether or not a gun spec is applied. 15

16 Answers: Are current mandatory minimums being used? If not, why not? Some of the time Varied across years Most recent data suggests 3 year mandatory was resulting in about 18 months of incarceration. 16

17 How involved are weapon offenders in repeat serious violence offending? Status Weapon Offenses among High Rate Violent Offenders 17

18 (n=5,814) Figure 1.6. Percentage of Weapon Offenders Convicted of Specific Violent Crimes by Type Percentage Homicide Robbery Assault Aggravated Rape Kidnapping Arson Extortion Aggravated Burglary Drug Trafficking Percentage

19 Figure 1.7. Trends in Age of 1 st Weapon Conviction by Cohort (n=5,814) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

20 Figure 1.8. Trends in Age of 1 st Weapon Conviction by Periods (n=5,814) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

21 Figure 1.9. Trends in Age of 1 st Weapon Conviction by Periods (n=5,814) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

22 PART 2 Serious Violent Offenders 22

23 Who is committing serious violent crimes with guns? Where is it happening? General trends over time and space Demographic profiles of offenders (sex, race, age, geography, etc.) Over time, across cohorts By county Criminal careers analysis Based on the criminal careers of more than 2 million offenders in Ohio who is the greatest threat? Profiles of criminal histories as cases moved through the system (arrest, charge, judgment, punishment, release, etc.) 23

24 Map 2.1. Rank Order of Top 12 Ohio Counties with the Highest Numbers of Violent Offenders Mapping Trends Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

25 Table 2.1. Serious Violent Crime in Ohio: Analysis of Repeat Violent Offenders ( ) Number of Convictions Crime Conviction Type 1 or more 2 or more 3 or more 4 or more Homicide 15,513 3, Assault 138,160 31,383 8,491 2,835 Robbery 50,226 17,136 4,753 1,976 Aggravated Burglary 13,944 3,336 1, Rape/Sexual Assault 38,823 13,596 4,460 2,194 Kidnapping 8,146 1, Arson 2, Extortion TOTAL =Homicide, assault, robbery, aggravated burglary, rape, kidnapping, arson, and extortion 230,288 80,274 31,278 15,252 *Source: OHIO BCI CCH database, % of all serious violent crime convictions 2.62% of Ohio adult population 59.6% of all serious violent crime convictions 0.91% of Ohio adult population 33.2% of all serious violent crime convictions 0.36% of Ohio Adult population 20.3% of all serious violent crime convictions 0.17% of Ohio adult population 25

26 Figure 2.1 Number of Serious Violent Crime Convictions TOTAL =Homicide, assault, robbery, aggravated burglary, rape, kidnapping, arson, and extortion 250, % 200, , , % 1 or more 2 or more 3 or more 4 or more 50, % of Ohio pop. 0.91% of Ohio pop. 0.36% of Ohio pop. 33.2% 1 or more 2 or more 3 or more 4 or more 20.3% 0.17% of Ohio pop. 26

27 Map 2.2. Rank Order of Ohio Counties By Number of High Rate Violent Offenders Mapping Trends =31.4% =10.8% =7.0% =6.6% 27

28 Figure 2.1b Number of Violent Crime Convictions by Cohort (n=31,278) 33.2% of all serious violent crime 6.4 =Average Number of Total Convictions 3.5 =Average Number of Violent Convictions Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March 2012 *Excludes aggravated drug trafficking convictions 28

29 Table 2. Number of Violent Offense Convictions by Types of Crime Homicide Robbery Assault Agg. Burglary Rape Arson Kidnapping Agg. Drug Trafficking Weapon offense Total Violent Crime Total Violent Crime + Agg. Trafficking Frequency: 1 or more offenses offenses offenses or more offenses Type: +Weapon offense Homicide Robbery Assault Agg. Burglary Rape Arson Kidnapping Agg. Trafficking Robbery+Weapon Assault+Weapon Agg. Burglary+Weapon Rape+Weapon Arson+Weapon Kidnapping+Weapon Agg. Trafficking+Weapon

30 Figure 2.2. Number of Offense Convictions by Violent Crime Type Number of Offense Convictions by Violent Crime Type (n= 35,418, High Rate Violent Offenders*) Frequency or Type: 1 or more offenses 2 offenses 3 offenses 4 or more offenses Homicide Robbery Assault Agg. Burglary Rape Arson Kidnapping Agg. Drug Trafficking 30

31 Table 2.b Profile of the Average High Rate Violent Offender (n= 35,418) Variables Year of Birth 1969 Age today (average) Cohort (mode) Number of Arrests per Person (average) 7.24 Number of Convictions per Person (average) 6.35 Number of Violent Crime Convictions (average) 3.07 Number of ODRC incarcerations (average) 2.54 Age at 1 st Arrest (average) Age at 1 st Conviction (average) Age at 1 st Violent Crime Arrest (average) Age at 1 st Violent Crime Conviction (average) Average for the subgroup of convicted homicide offenders (1973 people) 42.3 years old 45.4% of sample (Generation X, born ) 21.7 years old 22.2 years old years old years old 2012 incarceration status 27.9% of sample (incarcerated) County of residence (mode) Race (mode) Sex (mode) 29.7% of sample (from Cuyahoga County) 59.1% of sample (Black) 95.7% of sample (Male) 31

32 When did High Rate Violent Offenders get started? 32

33 Figure 2.3 Trends in Age of 1 st Arrest by Cohort (n=35,418) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March 2012 * 3 or more violent crime convictions could include homicide, robbery, assault, aggravated burglary, rape, arson, extortion, and agg. drug trafficking 33

34 Figure 2.4. Trends in Age of 1 st Conviction by Cohort (n=35,418) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March 2012 * 3 or more violent crime convictions could include homicide, robbery, assault, aggravated burglary, rape, arson, extortion, and agg. drug trafficking 34

35 What have they been doing lately? 35

36 (n= 26,166) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March 2012 Source: Ohio BCI CCH data, Active (n=21,671) 36

37 (n= 9,112) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March 2012 Source: Ohio BCI CCH data, Active (n=8,484) 37

38 What are the Patterns by Violent Crime Type? Homicide 38

39 Figure 3.1. Number of Homicide Convictions per Person by Cohort (n=1,973 individuals, 2,484 homicides) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

40 Figure 3.2. Trends in Year of 1 st Homicide Conviction by Cohort (n=1,973) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

41 Figure 3.3 Trends in Year of 1 st Homicide Conviction by Cohort (n=1,973) Mean= 31.1 Mean = 26.8 Mean= 21.4 Mean Age= 44 Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

42 Table 4. Profile of the Average High Rate Violent Offender who was Convicted of Homicide Variables Average for the subgroup of convicted homicide offenders (1973 people) Year of Birth 1967 Age today 44 Cohort (mode) Age Category of 1st Homicide (mode) Age when committed homicide 42.8% of sample (Baby Boomers) 29.8% of sample (20-24 years old) 28.6 years old Year in Category of 1st Homicide Conviction 32% of sample ( ) Number of Arrests per Person 6.08 Number of Convictions per Person 5.34 Number of ODRC incarcerations 2.19 Sequence of homicide in history incarceration status (mode) 57.8% of sample (incarcerated) County of residence (mode) Race Sex 36.1% of sample (from Cuyahoga County) 68.3% of sample (Black) 95.9% of sample (Male) 42

43 What can be done to enhance tools to prevent prohibited persons from having guns? Identifying persons Enhanced penalties Improvement to data systems that are used in identifying persons (especially linkages between CJ and MH) Behavioral change Norm change 43

44 Need for Further Discussion Data issues and needed system improvements. Investing in data infrastructure would enable criminal justice decision-makers to more effectively evaluate the impact of policy changes at different points across the criminal justice. Identifying those at the highest risk is an important step. Evidence from the research literature suggests that penalty enhancements need to be balanced with behavioral change, restorative justice, and other evidence-based programming. 44

45 Data Limitations A dataset of this scope is not without errors and omissions. The researcher devoted substantial time to cleaning and correcting apparent data coding errors. It was impossible to correct all errors. Missing data was a problem for particular years and jurisdictions. The results include only cases with valid information that was successful merged across data systems. The numbers are likely a slight under-estimate. Further research would be needed to move beyond simply the descriptive results presented here. Includes only data on adult offenders. All data on juveniles under 18 years old were omitted from the analysis. 45

46 Thank you for time and attention. I look forward to your questions. 46

47 Special Thanks to Violent Crimes with Guns Advisory Group Members Honorable Mike DeWine Ohio Attorney General Jeffrey Welbaum, Chair Section Chief, Criminal Justice Services Office of the Attorney General Honorable Patrick DeWine Hamilton County Common Pleas Court Anthony Pierson Ohio Department of Youth Services Division of Legal Services, Deputy Director Sgt. Bill Halusek Cincinnati Police Department KC Jones Detective, Muskingum County Sheriff s Office Bob Browning Special Agent in Charge Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco & Firearms Cathy Harper Lee Executive Director The Justice League of Ohio Ken Parker U.S. Attorney s Office, Southern District Commander Jim Chura City of Cleveland Police Department Craig Tame U.S. Attorney s Office, Northern District Stephen Schumaker Deputy Attorney General for Law Enforcement David Bucy City of Columbus Police Department Doug Stead Franklin County Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Honorable Jim Hughes Ohio Senate Mark Piepmeier Hamilton County Prosecutor s Office Ed Buns Hamilton Police Department Karhlton Moore Ohio Department of Public Safety Office of Criminal Justice Services Jonathan R. Fulkerson Section Chief, Health & Human Services Office of the Attorney General Honorable Theresa Dellick Mahoning County Juvenile Court Ken Hanson Firestone, Brehm, Hanson & Wolf, LLP Sheriff Phil Plummer Montgomery County Sheriff 47

48 Supplemental Slides for your Review Robbery, Assault, & Aggravated Drug Trafficking 48

49 Figure 6.1. Number of Robbery Convictions by Cohort Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

50 Figure 6.2. Trends in Year of 1 st Robbery Conviction by Cohort (n=15,585) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

51 Figure 6.3 Trends in Year of 1 st Robbery Conviction by Cohort (n=15,585) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

52 Figure 6.4. Trends in Age of 1 st Robbery Conviction by Cohort (n=15,585) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

53 Figure 6.5. Number of Assault Convictions by Cohort Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

54 Figure 6.6. Trends in Year of 1 st Assault Conviction by Cohort (n=15,859) 54

55 Figure 6.7. Number of Aggravated Trafficking Convictions by Cohort Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

56 Figure 6.8. Trends in Year of 1 st Aggravated Drug Trafficking Conviction by Cohort (n=10,441) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

57 Figure 6.9. Trends in Year of 1 st Aggravated Drug Trafficking Conviction by Cohort (n=10,441) Prepared by Dr. Deanna Wilkinson, OSU For Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine s violent crimes with gun task group, March

58 Contact information Deanna L. Wilkinson, Ph.D. Associate Professor The Ohio State University Department of Human Development and Family Science 1787 Neil Ave, 135 Campbell Hall Columbus, OH (614)