Determinants of Defection: The Effect of Information Signals on Strategic Voting. Abstract

Transcription

1 Determinants of Defection: The Effect of Information Signals on Strategic Voting Abstract While theoretical work on strategic voting emphasizes the importance of elite messages in persuading minor party supporters to abandon their first preference, few empirical studies have examined this relationship. I argue that while poll results certainly increase the likelihood of changing one s vote, explicit information signals can increase this probability even more. Furthermore, these effects will be moderated by the presence of a counter message and the sponsor of the explicit information signal. These hypotheses are tested with data generated from two experiments.

2 Minor party candidates are becoming a permanent fixture in elections in the United States. While minor party candidates have had a difficult time winning higher levels of office, their effects on the outcomes of elections have been felt across many contests, most notably the 2000 U.S. Presidential election. After the election, many scholars and pundits argued that Nader s presence in the race cost Al Gore the election, presumably the second preference of Nader supporters (Burden 2003). The 2000 election is not an anomaly: in 2002, Libertarian candidates may have cost Republican candidates the election in Senate races in South Dakota and Nevada and in gubernatorial races in Wisconsin and Oregon (Miller 2002), and in 2004, the Democratic candidate may have lost the senate seat in Alaska given the presence of the Green Party candidate (Tsong 2004) and the gubernatorial race in Washington due to the Libertarian party candidate (Modie 2004). The examples above illustrate the possibility that the presence of minor party candidates and the behaviour of their supporters may cost the Condorcet winner, or the alternative that beats all others in pair wise comparison, the election. However, if minor party supporters had switched their vote to their second preference in these contexts, then the Condorcet winner may have carried the election. With so many examples of when strategic voting could have made a difference, I examine the conditions under which minor party supporters abandon their first choice and vote for their second preference. Extant scholarship, primarily experimental based, has offered factors such as electoral history, poll results, ballot position, and signals from campaign spending (e.g., Felsenthal et al. 1988; Forsythe et al. 1993; Rapoport et al. 1991; Rietz, Myerson and Weber 1998). However, such studies generally provide poll results in the context of perfect information, which is rarely, if ever, present in elections. Furthermore, studies have not examined how more explicit campaign messages might impact the likelihood of defection, or how the presence of certain counter-messages might dampen such cues. There are three questions that this paper addresses. First, do information signals about 1

3 the competitive context of the race increase the likelihood that minor party supporters switch their vote to their second preference? 1 Second, does the presence of explicit information signals further increase this probability? Finally, what factors (message source and presence of countercoordination messages) condition an individual s receptivity to explicit information signals? These questions are addressed using two experimental designs in which subjects were presented with a context in which their first preference had little chance of winning, while their least preferred candidate was leading the race. However, if a certain percentage of subjects switched their vote, then the second preferred candidate could win. An experiment is beneficial to examining the factors that help subjects switch their vote in that the effects of different types of information can be isolated; thus, we know if subjects were exposed only to poll results or to poll results and an explicit information signal, such as a vote for your first preference is a vote for your least preferred candidate. Finally, experiments make it easier to test the conditional effects of the sponsor of the message and the presence of counter messages, which is often difficult to measure with data from campaigns. Answers to these questions have broad implications for the quality of representation in the American political system. As mentioned before, if the behaviour of minor party supporters results in the Condorcet winner losing real elections, it indicates a clear problem in the quality of representation. If we know about the factors that lead minor party supporters to switch their vote to their second preference, then we might be more likely to avoid these failures. Presumably, with knowledge of these factors, the major party candidate who is being harmed by the presence of the minor party, or interest groups with concerns similar to minor party supporters, will know how to appeal to this segment of the electorate. Past Work on Information Signals and Strategic Voting Strategic voting occurs when voters cast ballots for their second preference as opposed to their first preference because they do not want to cast a wasted vote. Such a context may occur 2

4 when voters perceive their first preference as having little to no chance of winning and when the race is close between their second and third preference. McKelvey and Ordeshook (1972) developed an expected utility model which demonstrates that if an individual s first preference has little chance of winning, the race is close between her second and third preference, and the difference in utility between them is sufficiently large, then she might be inclined to vote for her second preference. Many scholars have applied this model (or a variant of it) to multi-candidate elections across countries and across time, and have demonstrated strong support for it (e.g., Abramson et al. 1992, 2004; Bartels 1988; Black 1978; Blais and Nadeau 1996; Ordeshook and Zeng 1997). There is however one problem the probability that a voter casts a decisive vote will always be close to zero in a large electorate. Riker and Ordeshook (1968) acknowledged this problem, and argued that what matters is the voter s subjective sense of being decisive between pairs of candidates, which will be inflated on its own or due to messages being sent by elites (also see Aldrich 1993). In terms of the latter, elites send cues that the probability of an individual s vote being decisive is higher than it is objectively. Game theoretic models have resolved the irrationality of strategic voting by demonstrating that strategic voting occurs when voters take into account possible actions by other voters. In one class of games characterized by complete and perfect information and sequential voting (e.g. Farquharson 1969; Niemi and Frank 1981; Niou 2001; and Rapoport, Felsenthal and Maoz 1991), elites incite strategic voting by coordinating the behaviour of voters with the same preferences. In another class of games characterized by simultaneous games of incomplete information, elites play an indirect role in the publishing of poll results (e.g., Cox 1997; Fey 1997; Myerson and Weber 1993; Palfrey 1989). While all of the theoretical models posit some role for elites, few empirical studies of multicandidate elections have looked at the role elites play in inciting strategic voting. Some 3

5 exceptions include studies in the U.K., where scholars have presented qualitative evidence of efforts by the parties to woo minor party supporters (Evans, Curtice and Norris 1998), and have tested indirect indicators of elite messages (Fieldhouse, Pattie and Johnston 1996). Some work in the U.S. has also looked at the effects of elite cues to vote strategically in the form of candidate visits in the 1992, 1996, and 2000 elections (Burden 2005). The results of the study were mixed with respect to the effect of candidate visits. The vast majority of studies on the effectiveness of signals to vote strategically have been conducted by a group of scholars who use experimental methods (e.g., Felsenthal, Rapoport, and Maoz 1988; Forsythe et al. 1993, 1996; Rapoport, Felsenthal and Maoz 1991; Rietz, Myerson, and Weber 1998). 2 All of the studies use a context in which the Condorcet loser is the plurality winner. For example, one bloc of voters (A) has one candidate as their first preference, and this bloc is the largest in the electorate. At the same time, the first preference of voters in Bloc A is the least preferred candidate of voters in two other blocs (say B and C), which are individually smaller in size to bloc A, but collectively larger. In order to create an incentive to vote strategically, subjects are paid based on the outcome of the race. Thus, preferences are solely determined by the monetary compensation associated with each candidate winning the election. Typically, the electorate is small and the candidates are abstract, with letters for names. Thus, in order to ensure that the Condorcet loser does not win the election, voters in blocs B and C need to coordinate on a candidate. These scholars have found several factors that aid in coordination in plurality elections. 3 First, they have found that subjects learn to vote strategically through repeated elections. That is, when subjects learn that a Condorcet loser wins in Round 1, they are more likely to switch their vote in Round 2 (Felsenthal, Rapoport, and Maoz 1988; Rapoport, Felsenthal, and Maoz 1991; Forsythe et al. 1993, 1996). For example, Forsythe et al. (1993) found that in Round 1, the Condorcet loser won 2/3rds of the time, while in the next round, the Condorcet loser won less than half of the time. Second, Forsythe et al. (1993) also 4

6 tested the impact of pre-election polls and the results indicated that the Condorcet loser only won 33.3 percent of the time, compared to 87.5 percent of the time without polls. In later work, Forsythe et al. (1996) found that across several rounds of play, the Condorcet loser won 26 percent of the time without polls, and only 19.8 percent of the time with polls. 4 Rietz, Myerson and Weber (1998) tested for the effects of polls and added a campaign contribution signal, in which subjects were allowed to contribute money toward ads for candidates, which popped up on each subjects screen. They found that the poll and campaign contribution treatments had similar effects, with the Condorcet loser winning only percent of the time, a percentage identical to the poll condition in the Forsythe et al. study (1993). The overall level of strategic voting in these studies is quite similar, ranging from 32.7 percent in Rietz, Forsythe, and Myerson (1991) to percent in Forsythe et al. (1993). In a recent review of the experimental work, Rietz (forthcoming) argues that without any type of information, voters are often unable to coordinate on their second preference. His research cluster has found that the signals that help subjects to coordinate their votes vary in effectiveness, with repeated elections being the least effective. Non-binding pre-election polls and campaign contributions have similar effects and are much more effective than the former. Finally, the most effective method is institutional: a majority requirement with a runoff system. While these experiments have greatly expanded our understanding of the conditions under which citizens can coordinate on their second preference, there are some limitations and some areas for extension. First, while the studies are very high in internal validity, they are lower in external validity with respect to the electoral context. For example, existing studies are very abstract in nature, with letters for candidates instead of names, and rely on a small electorate, which is not usually the case in any U.S. election. Second, and related to the issue of external validity, the payoffs are generally structured so that subjects are only paid based on who wins the election. This feature is important since it allows the researchers to assign preferences to subjects 5

7 (based on the money received from the outcome of the election). There are two potential critiques to this set-up. First, this framework does not model any expressive benefit a minor party supporter might receive from voting for their first preference or a long-term goal of building a political party. 5 That is, only instrumental benefits are incorporated. Second, some might argue that preferences derived from monetary compensation are not a good reflection of preferences in real elections. There are also many areas for extensions. Existing studies have yet to test more explicit information signals that are often used in multi-candidate elections, such as voting for Ralph Nader helps elect George W. Bush 6 in the 2000 election or a vote for Anderson is a vote for Reagan 7 in the 1980 election. Second, we do not know whether the source of an explicit signal has any impact on an individual s receptivity to it. Finally, studies have also not considered the role of counter information on the part of the trailing candidate. In an election, we might expect that the minor party candidate would respond to coordination cues being sent by other elites. This question is far from idle the minor party candidates with enough support to tip the outcome of the election may also have the resources necessary to counter any information signals to switch one s vote that are sent by a major party. I overcome the artificiality of existing studies by placing my experiments in the context of a mock mayoral election. In one study, I also compare a purely instrumental payoff structure to one that incorporates both instrumental and expressive benefits. In a second study, subjects are all paid a flat fee for participation in the study. Instead of assigning preferences based on monetary compensation, subjects develop their own preferences based on candidates positions on an issue. Furthermore, in both studies, I examining explicit coordination signals, sponsored by different elites, and counter-coordination signals. Given that I only run one election at a time, I am unable to test for the effects of repeated elections. Since the results are similar across extant studies, the loss of information from being able to conduct repeated elections is justified. 6

8 Types of Coordination Cues Past experimental studies of strategic voting find that without information on the competitive context of the race, few minor party supporters switch their vote, resulting in the Condorcet loser winning the election (e.g., Felsenthal et al. 1988; Rapoport et al. 1991; Forsythe et al. 1993, 1996). Minor party supporters might be led to abandon their first preference from tracking polls alone. Having learned that their first preference has no chance of winning, while the race is close between the major party candidates, they might be inclined to switch their vote, in the hope of ensuring at least their second best outcome. However, minor party supporters generally do not know whether others like them have the same second preference. 8 Given this uncertainty, additional information might be required to induce strategic voting, which could come in the form of messages being sent by elites, such as the other major party candidate, the media, or interest groups. 9 These elites might send a cue that other minor party supporters have a similar preference profile and that if they all coordinate on candidate B, they can ensure their second best outcome. 10 To summarize, we should find higher levels of strategic voting among those who are exposed to messages about the competitive context of the race, and this effect should be more pronounced among those who are exposed to explicit strategic voting messages, compared to those who are only exposed to tracking polls. Conditional Factors One factor that might affect the likelihood of voting strategically is the response by the minor party candidate. As Cox (1997) points out, minor party candidates might try to counter the instrumental arguments of the major party candidate by focusing on the long-term goals of the minor party. Furthermore, they might emphasize one s duty to vote for their first preference. Studies on persuasion find that individuals are receptive to one-sided persuasive messages; whereas they will be less likely to incorporate a message if an argument against that message is 7

9 presented (e.g., Lau Smith and Fiske 1991; Petty and Cacioppo 1986; Zaller 1992). Thus, the presence of a counter-strategic voting message might render the explicit message ineffective. The impact of explicit messages to change one s vote might also vary depending on the sponsor of the cue. Many studies of persuasion and priming find that individuals are more likely to incorporate messages when they trust the sender of the message, especially in low information and motivation environments (e.g., Chaiken 1980; Miller and Krosnick 2000; Petty and Cacioppo 1986). Given this literature, we might expect that minor party supporters will be more likely to incorporate and use messages that are sponsored by interest groups that share their preferences, compared to messages sponsored by the major party candidate that is trying to appeal to them. They might view some interest groups as having credibility over the issues they care about (Ansolabehere and Iyengar 1994; Iyengar and Valentino 1999; Petrocik 1996), while they distrust the motives of the major party candidate. 11 To briefly summarize, the hypotheses that are tested with the data generated from the experiments are as follows: H1: Exposure to polling results will increase the likelihood of voting for one s second preference. H2: Exposure to explicit information signals will further increase the likelihood of voting for one s second preference. H3: Exposure to counter-information signals will depress the likelihood of voting for one s second preference. H4: Signals sponsored by credible interest groups will be more effective than candidate sponsored signals. Study 1 Method Participants 8

10 289 student subjects were recruited for the study from universities in California, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Participants were recruited with flyers and were compensated monetarily for participating in the study. Given that the format of the study was the same across the universities, the data was pooled in the analyses that follow. With this pooled data, the demographic breakdown of the student sample is as follows: 55.7 percent male, 71.3 percent white, 40.8 percent Democrat, 22.8 percent Republican; and, a mean political information score of 3.5 out of 6 points. Context of the Study Subjects took part in a mock three-candidate mayoral election in Allentown, Pennsylvania. They were led to believe that it was a special mayoral election that took place a few months before the study. The subjects were assigned preferences over the three candidates, and all subjects were given the same preference profile, to ensure an identical pool of minor party supporters. 14 However, the subjects read that there were six different types of voters in the electorate, representing the six possible strict preference orderings over the three candidates. The competitive context of the race was also held constant (among the treated groups): David Howells (the least preferred candidate) was the plurality winner, while Lou Ervin (the first preference) had no chance of winning. Thomas Burke (the second preference) narrowly trailed Howells. Two different forms of compensation were used in the study. In one version, subjects were compensated based on the outcome of the race, receiving $15 if Ervin won (their first preference), $10 if Burke won (their second preference), and $5 if Howells won (their third preference). In a second version, an expressive component was built in the payoff structure. Thus, subjects were compensated based on the outcome of the election, to capture instrumental considerations of strategic voting, and for whom they voted, to capture an expressive benefit of voting for one s favourite candidate (e.g., Carter and Guerette 1992; Fischer 1996; Hirschman 9

11 1970; Schuessler 2000). A subject was compensated the highest amount if he or she voted for Ervin and he won ($15). If Burke won the election, and the subject voted for Ervin, then she received 10 dollars, while if she voted for Burke, she received 9 dollars. If Howells won, and she voted for Ervin, she received 5 dollars, while if she voted for Burke, she received 3 dollars. Given the competitive context, the highest actual payoff, for either compensation scheme, was 10 dollars. Overall, we should find that those in the former compensation set-up are more likely to switch their vote. Finally, to simulate behaviour in a large electorate, subjects were told that the outcome would be determined by adding the votes they cast with the results in Allentown and the votes cast in other classes that took part in the study. Procedure Upon arrival, subjects were told that they would be participating in a mock election for a mayoral race that took place in Allentown, Pennsylvania. They were told that the purpose of the study was to see what types of information people consider in elections. The subjects then filled out a short pre-survey, which included a battery of demographic and political information questions. Subjects were then given a packet, which contained their preference profile, compensation table, and information about the campaign. 15 Subjects then voted and completed a post-survey, which included questions about their perceptions of who would win, and their levels of efficacy and trust. After the post-test, the subjects were debriefed and compensated. Treatment To test the hypotheses related to the type of message and the conditional effects of the sponsor and counter messages, subjects were exposed to one of four types of information (no information, poll information, poll and explicit information signal, and the latter plus a counter signal from the trailing candidate), with the explicit message delivered by either candidate Burke or an interest group. Combining these components, subjects were randomly assigned to one of 10

12 the six groups (control, poll, candidate signal (CIS), interest group signal (IGS), candidate counter signal (CCIS), and interest group counter signal (CIGS). The treatment was embedded in the articles section of the campaign packet. Subjects in the control group read a neutral article about projected levels of turnout in the election and an article about the importance of revitalizing downtown Allentown, while those in the poll treatment read the first neutral article, and an article with a tracking poll in which they learned that Ervin was trailing in the polls with 15 percent support, while Burke had 40 percent support, and Howells was leading with 45 percent support. Those in the two explicit signal treatments read the first neutral article, the poll article, and an article about an advertisement sponsored by either Thomas Burke (CCC), or Good Schools Pennsylvania (ICC), in which the ad says that a vote for Ervin is a vote for Howells and that if all Ervin supporters switch their vote, they can ensure that Howells does not win. Finally, the two counter groups read the neutral article, the poll results, the explicit cue, from Burke or Good Schools Pennsylvania, and an article about Lou Ervin s response to the ad. The article quotes Ervin as arguing that the ad encourages his supporters to go against one of the most cherished acts in a democracy voting for anyone other than one s first preference goes against one s duty as a citizen. To refresh, we should find that those who received polling information, or all treated groups, exhibit higher levels of voting for their second preference, Burke, compared to those in the control group (H1). Furthermore, we should find that those in the explicit signal conditions have a higher level of voting for Burke compared to those in the poll condition (H2), with the interest group sponsored cue being more effective than the candidate sponsored one (H4). Finally, if we compare the counter conditions to the explicit signal conditions, we should find lower levels of voting for Burke in the former (H3). Results 11

13 Before turning to the differences across treatments, there is a simple manipulation check that was conducted. If subjects in the treated groups paid attention to the articles, we should find that the percentage of subjects who think their first preference will win will be significantly lower among the treated groups compared to the control group, since the treated groups read that Ervin had 15 percent support in the polls. As expected, all of the treated groups were less likely to think that their first preference would win compared to the control group, according to a series of difference in proportions tests. The overall percentage who voted for their second preference was 50.5 percent. Figure 1 presents the percentage of subjects who voted for Burke by treatment group. As expected, we find support for H1, in that only about 6 percent of those in the control group voted for Candidate Burke, while the percentage ranged from 47.9 percent to 79.2 percent across the treated groups, and these differences were significant for each comparison group according to difference in proportions tests. [Figure 1 about here] As expected, a higher percentage of subjects voted for Burke in the candidate information signal (CIS), 64 percent, and the interest group signal, 79.2 percent, compared to those in the poll group (47.9 percent), and these differences were significant. Furthermore, the percentage is also significantly higher among those exposed to the interest group cue verses the candidate cue. Finally, while the addition of a counter coordination cue to the candidate cue depressed the percentage voting for Burke, these differences were not statistically significant. However, those who received the counter signal to the interest group signal were significantly less likely to vote for Burke. Overall, it appears that there is some initial support for the arguments that explicit information signals play an important roll in enhancing the likelihood of switching one s vote, above poll results only, especially when sent by an interest group. However, there is mixed support for the argument that counter messages should depress the likelihood of switching one s vote to their second preference. 12

14 While the difference in proportions test indicate some support for the hypotheses, they only indicate whether there were significant differences across treated and control groups. Since each treated group received poll results, the previous results can not tell us the independent effect of explicit information signals or counter information signals. In order to test for these independent effects, a multivariate test is needed. Thus, to separate the effects of poll results, we need to create a dummy variable in which all of those exposed to poll results (all treated groups) are coded as one and zero otherwise (the control group). Next, we need to create dummy variables for those exposed to the explicit information signals. First, I created a general explicit information signal dummy variable, which combines those who received the candidate or interest group signal (CIS, IGS, CCIS and CIGS), and then created separate measures for the candidate information signal and interest group signal. Finally, I created a dummy variable for all of those who received a counter information signal (CCIS and CIGS), and separated those who received a counter message by whether the explicit cue was sponsored by the candidate or interest group. The dependent variable is whether the subject voted for Burke, their second preference, which is coded as 1 if they did and zero otherwise. Given that the dependent variable is dichotomous, I ran probit analysis. In addition to the treatment dummy variables (the control serves as the baseline), a dummy variable was included for whether the subject was compensated based on the outcome only, and for whether the respondent is male. 16 The latter variable, male, is included because there was a slight over-representation of males in some groups compared to others, according to difference in proportion tests. Table 1 presents the results. Model 1 presents the results for a model that includes the control variables, as well as the dummy variables for poll results, explicit information signals, and counter signals. The first column presents the coefficients and standard errors, while the second column presents the first differences. As expected, the poll treatment is significant and in the expected direction; thus, learning of the competitive context of the race made subjects more likely 13

15 to vote for Burke than the control group, in support of H1. Furthermore, the explicit information signal dummy variable is also significant and positive, in support of H2. Thus, subjects receiving an explicit signal became even more likely to switch their vote to their second preference. Finally, as expected (H4), the counter information signal had a negative effect, decreasing the likelihood of switching one s vote. With respect to the control variables, the compensate variable is positive and significant, as is the male dummy variable. Thus, men and those who were paid based on the outcome only were more likely to switch to their second preference. The model also performs well with percent correctly predicted. [Table 1 about here] Since the probit coefficients are not directly interpretable, I calculate the first differences using Clarify (King, Tomz, and Wittenberg 2000; Tomz, Wittenberg, and King 2001). All of the treatment dummies were held at the minimum, along with the control variables. Thus, the baseline subject is a female student who received the 2 nd form of compensation. Exposure to the poll results increased the likelihood of voting for Burke by 32.5 percent. To get the effect of the explicit information signal, the poll results were set at their max, since this group was exposed to the poll results. The change in the probability of voting for Burke among this group was 24.5 percent. Thus, having been exposed to the explicit signal further increased the probability of voting for one s second preference. The effect for those in the counter group was a decrease in the probability of voting for Burke by 21.3 percent. Thus, the addition of a counter message rendered the explicit signal much less effective. One feature of the first Model is that it does not differentiate the sponsor of the explicit signal; thus, in Model 2, separate dummy variables are included for the sponsor of each message. Here, we find that all of the manipulation dummy variables are significant, with the exception of the candidate counter signal. In order to see whether messages sponsored by interest groups are more effective than candidate signals, we need to look at the first differences. As expected, we 14

16 find that the change in the probability of voting for Burke is only 15.5 percent among those exposed to the candidate information signal, but much higher, 33.1 percent, among those exposed to the interest group signal. In this model, the poll results increase the probability of switching one s vote by 32.9 percent, while the counter interest group signal decreases the probability by 30.3 percent. Overall, the results support the four hypotheses. Study 2 For study 2, the context of the study was the same, a mock-mayoral election in Allentown Pennsylvania with Lou Ervin, Thomas Burke, and David Howells. The treatment articles were almost identical and were only slightly modified to shorten the content. 17 However, a few differences were introduced in order to test the robustness of the results. First, a non-student sample was used. Second, a different form of compensation is employed. Some may argue that the compensation in the first study is not realistic, given that voters do not receive monetary compensation based on the outcome of elections. To address this concern in this second study, all subjects were paid the same amount, regardless of the outcome of the election. This should prove a more difficult test for the treatments. Finally, rather than assign preferences to subjects, they were asked to rank order their preference over the three candidates, after being presented with their positions on a school voucher program. A computer program ensured that the first preference of subjects was presented as the trailing candidate. The next sections detail the context of the study, the procedures, the treatment, and the results. Participants and Design Study 2 was a computer-based study that ran from late August to early September Research subjects were adults recruited from three populations: residents of two Northern California towns and employees of a large university in Northern California. 18 The 417 adult participants were compensated $30 for their time. The average reported age of the respondents was 46; 63.1 percent were female; the modal subject (33 percent) indicated having a college 15

17 degree; 78.7 percent identified as white; and, with respect to partisanship, 24.0 percent identified as Republican, 46.8 percent as Democrat, and the remainder as Independent or Other. Subjects were randomly assigned to one of the six treatment groups. Tests of whether subjects were evenly distributed across groups, according to demographic and attitudinal variables (party identification, ideology, political sophistication, gender, education, home ownership, income and race) revealed that there was a slight over-representation of females and home owners in some of the groups. Procedures Participants reported to the experimental lab in order to participate in a study about current events and opinions. Once seated, individually, in front of a computer terminal, a research assistant initiated the program and the participant was randomly assigned to either the control group or one of the six treatment groups. The study began with questions on basic demographics, opinions on school vouchers, and party identification. The subjects were then presented with the candidates positions on a scale of favour to oppose with respect to a voucher program. After being presented with the candidates positions, the subjects rank ordered their preferences over the three candidates. They then proceeded to read the newspaper articles associated with their assigned control or treatment group. The computer program assigned their first preference as the trailing candidate and their least preferred candidate as the leading candidate in the treatment articles. After reading the articles, the subjects voted in the election and were asked similar questions to the previous study. Results The same manipulation check question was asked in Study 2. As in study 1, all of the treated groups were less likely to think that their first preference would win compared to the control group, according to a series of difference in proportions tests. The overall percentage who voted for their second preference was 24.5 percent. Figure 2 presents the percentage of subjects who voted for their second preference by treatment group. As expected, we find support 16

18 for H1, in that only about 11.6 percent of those in the control group voted for their second preference, while the percentage ranged from 18.9 percent to 41.4 percent across the treated groups. According to difference in proportions tests, the control group was significantly less likely to vote for their second preference compared to all of the treated groups, with the exception of the poll treatment group, which was just outside of traditional significance levels (p<.131). As expected, the proportion voting for their second preference is lower for this study, since compensation was not at all based on the outcome of the election. [Figure 2 about here] As expected, a higher percentage of subjects voted for their second preference in the candidate information signal (CIS), 29.9 percent, and the interest group signal, 41.4 percent, compared to those in the poll group (18.8 percent), and these differences were significant. As with the previous study, the percentage voting for their second preference is significantly higher among those exposed to the interest group cue verses those exposed to the candidate cue. The results are also similar with respect to those in the counter information groups. There are no significant differences between the candidate information signal and counter candidate information signal groups. However, those exposed to the counter interest group article voted for their second preference at a lower proportion, 21.9 percent, compared to those exposed to the interest group signal. Since there were some demographic differences across treated and control groups, and to test the independent effects of the different types of signals, we turn to multivariate tests. The same models were used as in the previous analysis, with the exception of the control variables. Home ownership and gender are included as controls since subjects were not evenly distributed according to these characteristics. The results for Model 1, which does not differentiate by the sponsor of the message, are presented in the first two columns of Table 2. As with Study 1, the explicit information signal 17

19 and counter signal are significant, with the former increasing and the latter decreasing the likelihood of voting for one s second preference. However, receiving poll information is just outside of traditional significant levels (p<.123, one-tailed). It is somewhat surprising that poll results have weaker effects in this study. However, given that individuals chose their own candidates and were not paid based on the outcome, it may have taken more of a push to get subjects to switch their vote to their second preference. According to the substantive effects, subjects exposed to poll information became 7.9 percent more likely to switch their vote, with the effect more pronounced among those exposed to explicit signals to switch their vote, 14.8 percent. Finally, messages to stick with one s first preference again decreased the probability of voting for one s second preference, by 10.9 percent. [Table 2 about here] Model 2 presents the results taking into account the sponsor of the message. The results for the poll information dummy variable are the same as in Model 1. As with Study 1, both the candidate and interest group explicit information signals are significant and positive, while the counter interest group signal is significant and negative. Furthermore, the effect of the interest group signal is again larger than the effect of the candidate information signal. The probability of voting for one s second preferences increases by 10.6 percent among those exposed to the candidate signal, and by 21.2 percent among those exposed to the interest group one. Finally, the counter interest group signal again almost washes away the effect of the message to switch one s vote, decreasing the probability of voting for one s second preference by 18.3 percent. 19 Discussion and Conclusions Overall, the results of the study have important implications for the quality of representation in the U.S. As was discussed before, sometimes failures in coordination among minor party supporters can result in the Condorcet winner losing real elections, a clear problem in the quality of representation. The findings of this study shed light on some factors that might 18

20 help or hinder minor party supporters from switching to their second preference, in a context in which they have the same second preference. First, as expected, and consistent with previous work, all subjects were more likely to switch their vote when given some information about the competitive context of the race. Second, explicit information signals added to poll results were often more effective than poll results alone in helping minor party supporters switch to their second preference. The effect for explicit information signals was more pronounced when the message was sponsored by an interest group than by a candidate. However, the presence of a counter cue often dampened the effect of explicit information signals. One striking finding was that subjects exposed to explicit coordination cues in addition to poll results were more likely to switch their vote compared to those only exposed to poll results. This result obtained with both the student sample and adult non-student sample. These findings support the argument that sometimes more information is needed for minor party supporters to switch to their second preference. However, the sponsor of the message may condition this relationship, with the effects being more pronounced in both studies with the interest group message. Another important feature of the results is that they were consistent across the two studies, even though the samples consisted of very different populations, students verses nonstudent adults, and the differences in compensation. The students were paid based on the outcome of the election and were assigned preferences, while the adults received a flat fee for participation and were allowed to determine their own preference rankings. Granted, the levels of defection for each treated group were higher in the student study, but the pattern of the results was the same across the two. In relation to strategies in the empirical world, the results suggest that explicit signals can play an important role in increasing the likelihood of defection among minor party supporters, with the effect likely most pronounced if the message is sent by an interest group aligned with the 19

21 minor party. In the 2000 election, only the National Abortion Rights Action League aired an explicit advertisement warning that a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush, and it only aired 47 times (Campaign Media Analysis Group). These results suggest that if other interest groups that Nader supporters perceived as credible had made similar appeals, more Nader supporters may have voted for Gore. Another important finding was that the presence of a counter message by the minor party candidate, Lou Ervin, did depress the effect of the explicit information signal in both studies, particularly among those who received the interest group information signal. In appealing to strategic voting as a violation of one s civic duty, the explicit information signals to switch one s vote were rendered less effective. This finding can have implications for understanding the circumstances under which minor parties might prove successful in the American political system. While minor parties will likely have few resources to mount a counter-campaign in presidential elections compared to the major party candidates, they might have more resources in other contests, which would enable them to counter the claims by the major parties. While the study enhances our knowledge of the effectiveness of different types of information signals, it also leads to more questions for future research. First, how might counter cues from the other major party fare? Second, how would more implicit information signals fare, compared to more explicit signals? Most of the appeals to Nader supporters sponsored by the DNC and Gore campaign in the 2000 election were not explicit, but implicit in nature, highlighting Bush s weaknesses on the environment. Finally, does the likelihood of defection depend on the nature of the issue? For example, are individuals more likely to defect on economic issues verses moral issues? 20

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