UK Electricity What happens next?

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1 UK Electricity What happens next? Robert Groves, CEO SmartestEnergy The Balance of the Energy Challenge Institute of Water Event Worthing, 14 th April 2016

2 Agenda Introduction to SmartestEnergy; The state of play in the current UK wholesale energy markets; Political and regulatory change coming in the UK; Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? What does the UK water industry need to consider? And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? 2

3 Agenda Introduction to SmartestEnergy; The state of play in the current UK wholesale energy markets; Political and regulatory change coming in the UK; Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? What does the UK water industry need to consider? And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? 3

4 Introduction to SmartestEnergy The UK s leading generation aggregator of renewabledistribution connected generators SmartestEnergy is the largest purchaser of renewable power from distribution connected renewable generators in Great Britain: A market share of 13%* versus the capacity in the available market; 2.5GW of contracted installed capacity; Generators participating in all schemes as well as merchant; Generators ranging in size from 50kW to 90MW; 300+ generation customers in the UK; and 550+ generation sites in the UK. The portfolio includes all mainstream renewable technologies and good quality CHP with 43% of Smartest s generation portfolio now from wind or solar. 4 * Figures from Cornwall Energy Consulting and quoted correct at 11th January 2016 UK Renewable Market figures sourced from Ofgem

5 Introduction to SmartestEnergy A new entrant suppliers (2008) to the large business consumer supplying making Smartest #10 by volume (2015) A retail business launched in 2008 supplying large industrial and commercial consumers and now supplying 3.4% of the UK s business electricity volumes: 7 TWh delivered supply per annum; business customers supplied and 7,000+ sites supplied. In our targeted large business user market, Smartest now has a bigger market share (5% and #7 by volume) than Scottish Power (3.2%) and British Gas (2.6%) with the offering targeting : Large business users with a preference for a renewable power supply; A customised contract offering with bespoke terms the norm and competitively priced offer. Market leading customer service and ranked #1 for UK customer satisfaction amongst UK business consumers in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 and voted Supplier of the Year in 2012*. 5 * All figures quoted correct at 19 th January 2015 and business user customer satisfaction as per the Datamonitor Major Energy Users Survey incl (discontinued in 2015)

6 Agenda Introduction to SmartestEnergy; The state of play in the current UK wholesale energy markets; Political and regulatory change coming in the UK; Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? What does the UK water industry need to consider? And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? 6

7 Current UK wholesale energy markets The UK wholesale electricity markets are not pricing a supply crunch even though there may be one in winter 2016/17, volatility or higher prices Spare electricity capacity in the National Grid during winter Chronology of National Grid Actions - Year to date 7 Sources: BBC - Electricity blackouts risk up, says National Grid - Argus European Electricity, Issue , p1 (12 th March) EMR Delivery Body - https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/lists/latest News Average of front two season on the Spectron end of day price

8 Agenda Introduction to SmartestEnergy; The state of play in the current UK wholesale energy markets; Political and regulatory change coming in the UK; Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? What does the UK water industry need to consider? And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? 8

9 Political and regulatory change coming in the UK Just as we thought Electricity Market reform was settled, comes more regulatory uncertainty for the UK electricity industry Recent regulatory outcomes Single cash-out and more marginal pricing CMA T-losses embedded benefit going Reduced subsidies for renewables Half hourly metering for all sites Current regulatory concerns Increasing marginality in pricing Ofgem review of all embedded benefits CM no behind the meter generation Europe 15 minute settlement periods What does the future hold? Greater volatility Reduced Triad/BSUoS embedded benefit Greater incentives for storage Greater price granularity 9

10 Agenda Introduction to SmartestEnergy; The state of play in the current UK wholesale energy markets; Political and regulatory change coming in the UK; Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? What does the UK water industry need to consider? And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? 10

11 Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? Germany provides a benchmark for how the UK electricity market may behave in the future with lower wholesale prices but higher volatility and higher end consumer bills 11

12 Agenda Introduction to SmartestEnergy; The state of play in the current UK wholesale energy markets; Political and regulatory change coming in the UK; Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? What does the UK water industry need to consider? And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? 12

13 What does the UK water industry need to consider? UK water companies will increasingly have to consider more active participation of their energy supply decisions 13

14 UK water companies will also need to be aware of pending tariff increases of 10.45/MWh effective April 2017 that will increase end user prices by 10% Tariff Change When Impact CfD Capacity Market Energy Intensive Industry Exemption for RO and FiT costs and scheme growth April 2017 ~ / MWh Brought forward to 2017 April 2017 ~ / 5.00 / MWh RO FiT Scheme Growth and EII Exemption Scheme Growth and EII Exemption April 2017 (may be partially delayed to 2018) April 2017 (may be delayed to 2018) DUoS Regulated rise April 2018 ~ / MWh ~ / MWh ~ / MWh TNUoS Regulated rise April 2017 annually ~ / MWh CCL Amalgamation with CRC April 2019 ~ / MWh 14 *Assumes an end user price of

15 Agenda Introduction to SmartestEnergy; The state of play in the current UK wholesale energy markets; Political and regulatory change coming in the UK; Using Germany as an example, what might happen in the UK? What does the UK water industry need to consider? And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? 15

16 And what does this all mean for what your electricity supplier will be thinking? The incumbent electricity suppliers will be focused on internal transformation with the energy supply market likely to look very different in the future EDF RWE Centrica E.ON SSE Transformation for DNOs to DSOs; Growing importance of distribution connected generation; Demise of vertically integrated energy cos; Impact of renewable generation and consumption patterns; Other purchasing platforms. Active balance management; Avoidance of nonenergy related costs; Rise of the 1 stop shop supplier; Renewable consumption as a USP for end users; The age of big data and the ebay of energy. 16 Source: Google Finance - Yahoo Finance Reuters, 31 st March 5 year period

17 UK Electricity What happens next? Robert Groves, CEO SmartestEnergy The Balance of the Energy Challenge Institute of Water Event Worthing, 14 th April 2016

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