Migration, Labor Market and Demographic Dynamics in Sub- Saharan Africa (MIMADEM)

Transcription

1 Migration, Labor Market and Demographic Dynamics in Sub- Saharan Africa (MIMADEM) Funded under the call for proposals DEMTREND by French development Agency (AFD) William and Flora Hewlett foundation Institute of Research for Development (IRD) Inter-Institutions Agencies of Research for Development ( (AIRD)

2 Part 1: short presentation of the project 1.Project Title: Migration, Labor Market and demographic dynamics in sub-saharan Africa (MIMADEM) 2. Project duration: 3 years 3. Coordinating institution: UR 047 (DIAL), IRD, Paris and Dakar 4. Researchers responsible for the project: Mathias KUEPIE (CEPS/INSTEAD-Luxembourg and DIAL- Paris) and Anne-Sophie Robilliard (IRD, DIAL, Dakar) 5. Partner Institutions: Institute of Population, Development and Reproductive Health (IPDSR) of the University Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar Center for Population Studies, Poverty and Socio-Economic Policy (CEPS/INSTEAD), Luxembourg National Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) of Mali, Bamako National Institute of Statistics (INS) of Cameroon, Yaoundé

3 0utlines of the presentation Background & objectives Topics developped Topic 1: Poverty and population dynamics Topic 2: Population Structure and Labor Supply Topic 3: Migration, mobility and labor market absorption capacity. Part 3: Data generated Part 4 : Research team

4 Part 2: Presentation of project 2.1. Background & objectives After having been perceived by demographers as a region resistant to demographic transition, the sub-saharan Africa is currently facing profound demographic changes, reflecting its entry into the transition process (and Tabutin Schoumaker, 2004). - But this demographic transition is still very heterogeneous, depending on the degree of urbanization and depending on country. Demographic changes may result in rapid change in the age structure of the population likely to induce a "demographic dividend" if certain conditions, particularly relating to absorption capacity of the labor market are met. The concept of demographic dividend arose from the debate on the role of population growth in economic growth. Two positions have faced to each other for a long time: According to the first, population growth threatens economic growth because of the gap between population growth and limited agricultural resources (Malthus, Ehrlich, 1968).

5 2.1. Background & objectives The second position maintains that population growth may instead accelerate economic growth through the adoption of technological change (especially in rural societies) under the demographic pressure of expanding populations (Boserup, 1965; Boserup, 1981, Nelson and Phelps, 1966 and Simon, 1995). The empirical analysis have so far failed to decide between these positions. - First we can find arguments and correlations to defend each of them. - Secondly, many problems of identifying causal relationships arise. More recently, a third position, which can be described as "neutralism" was affirmed, relying in particular on the fact that the correlation between population growth and economic growth disappears when other demographic variables are taken into account (Williamson, 1997). These variables include those describing the age structure and / or the demographic dependency ratio. The correlations found between the rate of demographic dependency and economic growth has led some authors to develop the concept of demographic dividend (Bloom, Canning and Sevilla, 2003, Bloom et al., 2007).

6 2.1. Background & objectives Demographic dividend is likely to occur when the fertility decline leads to a rapid decline in the rate of demographic dependency, enabling an increase in savings and therefore investment, including in human capital. Most empirical studies on the analysis of demographic dividend were based on data aggregated at the country level and have largely ignored two important aspects: firstly the role of labor market and secondly that of migration. In fact, for the demographic bonus to be materialized, the decline in demographic dependency ratio must be accompanied by a decrease in the economic dependency ratio (Oudin, 2003). Decrease in the economic dependency ratio is largely based on the ability of the economy to absorb the "over flow" of young people who are at the age of entering labor market. This absorption capacity itself depends heavily on the characteristics and functioning of the labor market (Bloom and Freeman, 1986).

7 2.1. Background & objectives On the other hand, given their importance in the population dynamics, internal migration and, more generally, work-related mobility is a dimension that cannot be ignored. Migration and mobility are indeed likely to have any impact on both population dynamics on the structure by age and sex of the labor supply and the functioning of the labor market. This is particularly true in developing countries where the dualism of the economy and migration from the "traditional" sector to a "modern" sector structure deeply shape the labor market. The MIMADEM project intends to revisit the relationship between demographic dynamics and economic dynamics in Africa through the concept of demographic dividend (an it opposite the demographic burden). It focus on the role of labor market and that of migration. The project also extend the concept of demographic dividend/burden to the level of families or households. The main countries of project implementing are Senegal, Mali and Cameroon. This choice will allow us to analyze contrasting situations in terms of economic, political, climatic constraints, and in terms of demographic transition model.

8 2.1. Reseach Topics The research will focus on three topics which analyze the causal links between population dynamics on one side and socio-economic dynamics on the other. These three topics are: 1. Poverty and population dynamics 2. Population structure and labor supply 3. Migration, mobility and absorption capacity of the labor market

9 Topic 1: Poverty and population dynamics This topic is filled by three research thmes dealing with interactions between poverty, socioeconomic dynamics and demographic behavior of households. The first theme developed in this topic considers the family as an appropriate unit to analyze demographic decisions, giving economic constraints. It seeks to identify to what extent in a context of poverty, households can rely on family network to survive and even maintain high fertility behavior (through sharing children costs with other members of the network) The second theme shows that the relationship between fertility and socioeconomic mobility are of complex nature and seek to measure both the impact of economic variables on fertility as the impact of reproductive behavior on the living conditions. As the last issue is concerned, it addresses the impact of living conditions and natural shocks (climate, locust invasion) on health and mortality.

10 1.1. Family structures, differential fertility and poverty African households often have extended ("horizontally and vertically ) structure. Furthermore, they develop close social relationships with other households: exchange of children, marriage or accommodation share with relatives. The theoretical literature presents this form of organization as a rational response of households to failures in capital and insurance markets : the informal network may reduce the negative impact of idiosyncratic shocks. Questions still remain about the actual efficiency of this response and its consequences on long-term economic development and poverty reduction. The objective of the proposed research is to examine this issue in terms of fertility and child mortality in Senegal.

11 1.2. Differential fertility, social mobility and inequality The neoclassical micro-economy (Gary Becker, Harvey Leibenstein and Robert Willis) generally predicts a decline in fertility with the remuneration of women's work (price effect), a fertility increase with land resources and capital (income effect), and an ambiguous effect of male wage labor (Schultz, 1993). According to other theories fertility depend on the aspirations and opportunities of social mobility (Richard Easterlin,Arsene Dumont) schemes or inter-generational transfers (John Caldwell). More generally, the theoretical literature leads to predict that differential fertility may differ between women and men, depending on the relative price of labor (and incorporated human capital) and other resources, giving the labor market perspectives and intergenerational relationships. In contemporary Africa, the study of differential fertility is complicated by the specificity of family structures and extended kinship.

12 1.2. Differential fertility, social mobility and inequality Furthermore, the transitional situations (depending on the country) are likely to "muddy the waters" by mixing several models of fertility in successive groups of the same socioeconomic statutes. Several indices do, however, suggest that the fertility differential is not simply an opposition between large poor families and rich nuclear families. In a number of countries, including Senegal and Burkina Faso, the persistence of polygamy for men with high social status is one factor that disrupts this opposition. Men polygamy is combined with the existence of a significant proportion of poor single men who never marry or only very late, and who are often migrants. This part of project will therefore first examine the arithmetic of fertility and the different variables measuring the status (income, wealth, land, education, power, prestige) from empirical data. We then seek to assess the contribution of the macroscopic differential fertility in social mobility and intergenerational dynamics of inequality.

13 1.3. Impact of poverty and climatic shocks on health and mortality Despite progress in health in recent decades, levels of indicators of health and mortality remain a concern in Africa. There are however significant heterogeneity between countries and within the same country between regions. Thus, the three main countries of study are at very different levels, ranging from simple to almost double. For example, the mortality rate of less than 5 years is about 110 per thousand in Senegal, against 148 per thousand in Cameroon and around 200 per thousand in Mali. Even within these countries, the differences between socioeconomic status and geographic settings are enormous. Here, We will therefore address the links between the place of the residence, living standards, and other mortality rates and health status. An important methodological challenge will be to identify, through natural chocks, unbiased impacts.

14 Topic 2: Population Structure and Labor Supply The second topic of MIMADEM project focuses on the relationship between population age and sex structures and labor supply. The quantity of labor supply of a population depends on its size, its structures by age and sex, and participation rates of each of the cohorts that compose it. While the size and structure of a population are the result of his fertility, mortality and migration history, participation rates tend to be more directly determined by economic and cultural factors (Bloom and Freeman, 1986). - For example, participation in the labor market is almost universal for men of working age in developing countries, while for women, participation rates vary considerably both in time and in space (Mammen and Paxson, 2000). In analyzing the effects of population growth on labor supply, we should therefore distinguish the structural effects from the behaviorial one. The behavioral effects will be studied primarily by mobilizing techniques of microeconomic analysis of data collected at household or individual level. The analysis of structural effects will, however, aggregate data on cohort and at subnational levels (rural/ small towns/ main cities; by regions). Three themes will be elaborated in this research: The impact of migration on the age sex structure population Participation of women in the labor market Demographic Dividend and economic growth: what prospects for Africa?

15 2.1. The impact of migration on age and sex structures population Contrary to changes in fertility and mortality, whose effects on the structure of the population of working age are lagged, migration potentially have an immediate impact on age and sex structure of population of both place of origin and place of destination. While demographics characteristics are always present in the microeconomic analysis of migration, they are often ignored in studies on aggregate data. That is cohorts are supposed to be homogenous. Under the MIMADEM project, the population structure will be connected with internal and international migration in the 3 countries analyzed. This connection is possible from the household surveys that collect both information on individual characteristics and migration. We can then look at subnational levels where there are correlations between indicators of structure (sex ratio, dependency ratio) and migration rates.

16 2.2. The participation of women in the labor market This topic will focus on two themes. - In the first, mainly descriptive, taking advantage from the cohort analysis of micro data collected over 20 years Senegal, Mali and Cameroon, we study the evolution of women's participation in the labor market in time and space. The changes observed will be put in relationship with data on fertility and living conditions, indicators of population structure, and finally with indicators of market integration (Employment, unemployment, sectorial orientation). In a second stage, several hypotheses regarding the determinants of female participation in the labor market will be confronted with data collected in the 3 countries (Cameroun, Mali, Sénégal).

17 2.3. Demographic dividend and economic growth: what prospects for Africa? The fall more or less rapid of fertility leads to changes in the age structure of population. The latter has an impact on various aspects of economic and social livings conditions. It is generally assumed that during demographic transition, there is a potential advantage or a dividend due to the fact that the share of working-age population (15-60 years) increased significantly, and that the load of inactive (children and seniors) per worker (dependency rate) decreases. African countries are acceding, at different speeds, to the second phase of demographic transition and some of them could therefore benefit from the dividend or window of opportunity (at least at some subnational levels). Conditions of realization of this dividend remain however to be specified and analyzed in the African context. The influx of youth into the labor markets can lead to rising unemployment and underemployment or a dilution of capital and income, making the prospects for economic growth problematic.

18 Topic 3: Migration, mobility and labor market absorption capacity. The objective of this topic is to contribute to the knowledge on internal migration and their role on the dynamics of the labor market in West Africa. More specifically, we intend to study the impacts of internal migration and, to a large extend mobility on the labor market. We will stress on the different impacts on the labor market of origin and that of migrants destination. In the West Africa countries, internal migration are an important part of migration. - Based on the migration matrices produced from the database REMUAO (Beauchemin and Bocquier, 2004), we can estimate that internal migration flows represent according to the country, between 35 to 90% of the migration of people over 15 years recorded over the 5 years preceding the survey. - In terms of "stocks", the labor market data collected in 7 West African main cities in , also show that internal migrants account for nearly 45% of individuals over 15 years living in the cities. In the MIMADEM project we will explore the role of migration and, more generally, mobility related to work in the labor markets dynamics of regions of origin and destination.

19 Topic 3: Migration, mobility and labor market absorption capacity. Indeed, despite the importance of internal mobility, the question of their impact on the labor market remains relatively under-studied. Thus, this part of the research has two main objectives: Characterize how labor markets work in localities of origin and destination, from the existing statistical data: occupancy rates and unemployment rates, employment patterns by age, sex and level education, labor productivity, seasonality. Analyze the role of migration and mobility on the labor markets dynamics, through exploitation of data produced by the Protocol for Mobility observation (OCM). Around these issues, several articles are envisaged: The situation of internal migrants in the urban labor market will be examined using data collected Africa cities. From the analysis of data collected under the OCM framework, we will seek to clarify the role of mobility in the how rural labor market works in Africa. Specifically, we will try to answer the following questions: What are the mobility patterns of labor factor between rural and urban areas? What factors affect this movement? What is the importance of migration and mobility in the spatial integration of the labor market

20 Part 3: Data generated To deal with the scientific questions raised in the project MIMADEM, we use different economic and demographic micro data bases. This data come from original surveys, developed by researchers of DIAL and / or researchers involved in the MIMADEM project : Labor and Informal sector survey: (eight cities of west and central Africa + Madagascar) Poverty and Family Structure survey (PFS) (senegal) The Mobility observatories (burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal) MIMADEM project also aims to build an integrated Database of demographic and economic indicators (at subnational level) from surveys and censuses conducted since 20 years in Senegal, Mali and Cameroon.

21 Part 4 : Research team Coordinateurs Mathias Kuépié CEPS, Paris Démographe Anne-Sophie Robilliard IRD DIAL, Dakar Economiste Equipe DIAL (UR 047) Denis Cogneau PSE & IRD DIAL, Paris Economiste Philippe De Vreyer Université Dauphine, Paris Economiste Flore Gubert IRD DIAL, Paris Economiste Charlotte Guénard Université Paris I - IEDES Economiste Sandrine Mesplé-Somps IRD DIAL, Paris Economiste Christophe J. Nordman IRD DIAL, Paris Economiste Xavier Oudin IRD DIAL, Paris Economiste Laure Pasquier-Doumer IRD DIAL, Paris Economiste Mireille Razafindrakoto IRD DIAL, Hanoi Economiste Equipe IPDSR Boubacar Camara IPDSR, Dakar Médecin Rosalie Diop IPDSR, Dakar Sociologue Papa Sakho IPDSR, Dakar Géographe Mohamadou Sall IPDSR, Dakar Démographe

22 Part 4 : Research team Equipe INSTAT Mali Issa Bouaré DNSI Mali, Bamako Statisticien Assa Doumbia-Gakou DNSI Mali, Bamako Statisticienne Arouna Sougané DNSI Mali, Bamako Statisticien Equipe Cameroun Anaclet Désiré Dzossa INS Cameroun, Yaoundé Statisticiendémographe Samuel Kelodjoue INS Cameroun, Yaoundé Statisticiendémographe Samuel Nouetagni IFORD, Yaoundé Démographe Pierre Nguetsé MINEPAT, Yaoundé Statisticien-économiste Autres chercheurs Florence Boyer IRD S&D (UMR 201), Ouagadougou Géographe Daniel Delaunay IRD S&D (UMR 201), Paris Démographe Momar Baré Sylla ANSD Dakar, Sénégal Statisticien-économiste Michel Tenikue CEPS, Luxembourg Statisticien-économiste