Regulating AI and Robotics
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1 Regulating AI and Robotics Steve Omohundro, Ph.D. PossibilityResearch.com SteveOmohundro.com SelfAwareSystems.com
2 Economic Drivers Deep Learning Regulatory Challenges New Regulatory Technologies
3 McKinsey: $50 Trillion to
4 AI Knowledge Work: $25 Trillion to 2025 Marketing, ERP, Big Data, Smart Assistants
5 Internet of Things: $15 Trillion to Billion devices by 2025 Cars, Appliances, Cameras, Meters, Wearables, etc.
6 Robot Manufacturing: $10 Trillion to Chinese robot companies Foxconn building 30K robots per year 1500 Dongguan Robot Replace Human factories
7 Health Care: $10 Trillion to 2025 Robot surgery, medical records, AI diagnosis
8 Self-Driving Vehicles: $10 Trillion by 2025 Disrupt Dealers, Insurance, Parking, Finance, Trucking, Taxis 10 million jobs
9 3D Printing: $2 Trillion by
10 WinSun 3D printed 12,000 sq ft villa US Building construction: $1 Trillion/yr 5.8 million employees
11 Aerial Drones: $98 Billion by Delivery, Surveillance, Agriculture, Military, Police $50 Hobby Drones with Video Camera
12
13
14 Deep Learning Neural Nets
15 Deep Learning Successes Speech Recognition TIMIT 2009: Cortana, Skype, Google Now, Siri, Baidu, Nuance, etc. Image Recognition ImageNet 2012 Image Captioning 2014 Natural Language: Sentiment 2013, Translation 2014, Semantics 2014 Drug Discovery: Merck Challenge 2012 DeepMind 49 Atari Video Games 2015
16 Deep Learning Has Blindspots
17 Rational Decision Making 1. Have utility function 2. Have a model of the world 3. Choose the action with highest expected utility 4. Update the model based on what happens Von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944 Savage, 1954 Anscombe and Aumann, Modern Approach to AI
18 Unintended Consequences Chess Robot: Win lots of chess games against good players.
19 Rational Drives 1. Self-protective 2. Goal preservation 3. Reproduction 4. Resource Acquisition 5. Efficiency 6. Self-Improvement
20 AI Script Kiddies AI goals and intelligence are independent Open source AI easily modified for any goal Script Kiddies may create harmful systems
21 Unexpected Collective Behavior 50% of equity trades are now autonomous May 6, 2010 Trillion Dollar 9% Flash Crash
22 Collective Bot Price Fixing
23 Hacked Cars Hacked Baby Monitors Hacked Front Door Locks Hacked Stoves Fly-by Hacking
24 Liability: Who s Responsible? Owner? Manufacturer? Programmer? Neural Net Trainer? Training Data Provider? What about bot created bots? Unexpected situations? New kinds of security vulnerabilities? How to track history of events? How to regulate rapid software events?
25 2008: Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and 511 Altcoins Decentralized consensus Blockchain ledger prevents double spending Bitcoin miners get paid for adding blocks Proof of work prevents Sybil attacks Current market cap: $3B
26 2015: Smart Contracts Ethereum Blockchain with a built-in programming language Consensus-based globally executed virtual machine Contracts in Turing complete programming language EVM Summer 2014 presold more than $18 million Ether Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs)
27 New Regulatory Technologies Based on Smart Contracts Audit trails Rogue bot rejection Limits on replication Identity Contract termination Contract reversal New incentive structures
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