1 College: A Necessity Priced as a Luxury Six Facts on College and the Middle Class May 2014
2 A Middle Class Job Does Not Get a Middle Class Life v Today, a middle class job increasingly does not support a middle class life. v One of the big tickets for the middle class is a college degree, but its cost has risen beyond the means of middle class families, with consequences for the workforce and broader economy. v Six facts are central to this alarming trend.
3 1. Tuition Has Outpaced Inflation for 32 Straight Years v Tuition has more than tripled: Average tuition and fees at a four-year public college rose from $2,100 in 1979 to $7,300, in 2010 dollars. v Tuition up more than health care: Of the four big ticket middle class expenses (tuition, health care, housing, and retirement), tuition has risen the fastest in the last three decades. v Tuition outpaced inflation for 32 straight years: No major consumer expenditure, including health care, can make that claim.
4 1. Tuition Has Outpaced Inflation for 32 Straight Years 1200% Growth Since % 800% 600% 400% 200% Tuition: 1020% Health care: 818% Housing: 290% Inflation: 216% Income: 210% 0% Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Average Tuition and Required Fees in Current Dollars for 4 Year Public Undergraduate Institutions; U.S. Census Bureau, Median Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in the United States; Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Personal Health Care Expenditure per Capita; U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Median Income; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers Annual Average.
5 2. College Has Become More Important for the Middle Class v Only college-educated workers have had wage gains: Workers with a four-year degree or better earn 16% more, in real dollars, than in v Non-college wages have fallen: Those at every education level below a college degree have seen declines in real wages. v The gap between college and non-college wages has widened: A worker with a high school diploma earned as much in 1979 as a worker with an associate s degree today.
6 2. College Has Become More Important for the Middle Class Median Weekly Earnings by Educational Attainment $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 Bachelor's Degree and Higher $1,150 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 Some College or Associate s Degree High School Less than High School $739 $638 $451 Note: Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers 25 years and older, in 2011 dollars, by sex and educational attainment, annual averages. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Highlights of Women s Earnings in 2011, October 2012.
7 3. Rising Costs Are Hurting Low and Middle-Income Students. Counting student aid: v Low-income families, earning less than $30,000, now pay 22% more, after inflation, than they did in for a four-year public college degree. v Middle-income families, earning $30,000 to $65,000, now pay 21% more, after inflation, than they did in for a four-year public college degree. v Upper middle-income families, earning $65,000 to $106,000, now pay 31% more, after inflation, than they did in for a four-year public college degree.
8 3. Rising Costs Are Hurting Low and Middle-Income Students. Change in Net Cost of Attendance at 4-year Public Colleges Percentage increase from 1999 to 2011 in real, 2011 dollars 31% 34% 22% 21% Less than $30,000 $30,000 - $64,999 $65,000 - $105,999 $106,000 or higher Family Income Source: NCES, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012; The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2008 and 2012, Figure 1; calculations by the authors.
9 4. Student Loan Debt Has Exploded v Student loan debt has quadrupled: Since 2003, student loan debt has risen from $250 billion to $1 trillion. v Nearly 40 million borrowers: Since 2005, the number of student borrowers has risen from 23 million to 39 million. v Loan balances ballooning: Since 2005, the average student loan balance has risen from $16,651 to $24,803. v Pell students borrow more: Nearly 90% of Pell Grant recipients who graduate have loans. They owe $4,750 more, on average, than those of higher income students. Source: The Institute for College Access and Students, Pell Grants Help Keep College Affordable for Millions of Americans, April 29, 2014.
10 4. Student Loan Debt Has Exploded 1.2 Total Debt Held by Borrowers Trillions Student Loan Auto Loan Credit Card Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, August 2013.
11 5. College Completion Rates Are Dismal v Young Americans on wrong side of college wage gap: Two thirds of 30-year olds do not have a college degree. v Young men in most trouble: Men s college completion rates have stagnated over the past decade and are barely higher than in v U.S. falling behind in college: Among OECD countries, the U.S. ranks 3rd in college degree attainment for year olds, but is 14th for year olds. Source: OECD Indicators 2012, Education at a Glance, Country Note, United States,
12 5. College Completion Rates Are Dismal 100% Share of Year Olds with a College Degree 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Women: 37% Men: 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: Includes only non-institutionalized individuals, ages Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.
13 6. Loan Debt Has Broad Economic Consequences v Young adults behind in housing: Student loan debt is a key reason why homeownership rates for 30 to 34-year olds are at a 30-year low. v Young adults behind in wealth creation: The median household wealth of people ages is 44 times the net worth of the median household of people younger than 35 blowing past historic highs.
14 6. Loan Debt Has Broad Economic Consequences Homeownership Rate at Age by Birth Year 57% 54% 53% 55% 54% 51% 48% Source: "The Subprime Generation", John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
15 6. Loan Debt Has Broad Economic Consequences Ratio of Households Net Wealth: Boomers to Millennials A typical Baby Boomer-headed household has 44 times the net wealth of a typical Millennial-headed household Note: For purposes of this graph, Boomer households are those headed by year-olds and Millennial households are those headed by persons under 35. Source: Failure to Launch, Anthony Carnevale, Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Analysis of data from the Pew Research Center,
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