Why aren t climate models getting better? Bjorn Stevens, UCLA
|
|
- Moris James
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Why aren t climate models getting better? Bjorn Stevens, UCLA
2 Four Hypotheses 1. Our premise is false, models are getting better. 2. We don t know what better means. 3. It is difficult, models have rough fitness landscapes and comprise an informal hierarchy. 4. It is impossible, because the remaining imprecision in representations of the climate system are irreducible.
3 1. Our premise is false Text Reichler and Kim., BAMS, (2008)
4 Le Treut et al., IPCC AR4, (2007).
5 Or not... We estimate the most probable global warming for a doubling of CO2 to be near 3 C with a probable error of ±1.5 C. The role of heat uptake by ocean intermediate waters is uncertain and ``could delay the estimated warming by some decades.'' we ``cannot predict the locations and intensities of regional climate changes with confidence'' ``Existing parameterizations of cloud amounts in general circulation models are physically very crude... It must thus be emphasized that the modeling of clouds is one of the weakest links in the general circulation modeling efforts'' Charney et al., NRC (1979)
6 Clouds and Climate Change GFDL AM2 clouds act to enhance the warming (positive effect) clouds act to mitigate the warming (negative effect) positive cloud effect, larger climate sensitivity
7 Clouds and Climate Change GFDL AM2 clouds act to enhance the warming (positive effect) clouds act to mitigate the warming (negative effect) positive cloud effect, larger climate sensitivity NCAR CAM3 negative cloud effect, smaller climate sensitivity
8 Clouds as ultimate, rather than proximate, sources of bias GFDL AM2 NCAR CAM3
9 Clouds as ultimate, rather than proximate, sources of bias... the modelling of time dependent clouds is perhaps the weakest aspect of the existing general circulation models and may be the most difficult task in constructing any reliable climate model --- Arakawa (WMO,1975) It must thus be emphasized that the modeling of clouds is one of the weakest links in the general circulation modeling efforts --- Charney (NRC,1979) The physical process contributing the greatest uncertainty to [feedbacks] on this time scale [ years] appears to be clouds --- Hansen et al., (Geophys Monographs 1984) GFDL AM2 NCAR CAM3 Probably the greatest uncertainty in future projections of climate arises from clouds and their interactions with radiation... even the sign of this feedback remains unknown --- IPCC (TAR 2001) Cloud effects remain the largest source of uncertainty in model based estimates of climate sensitivity --- IPCC (AR4 2007)
10 2. We don t know what better means In NWP it is possible to trace the quantitative increase in skill over time because forecasts have been evaluated against observations in a consistent manner for decades... climate models used to make longterm projections have not been subject to uniform assessment over time. (Pincus et al., 2008). In climate modelling, there is a subject[ive] judgement of what errors to minimize. The measures of success and failure are much more vague and personal. (Williamson, 2002).... but because the development of robust metrics is still at an early stage, the model evaluations presented in this chapter are based primarily on experience and physical reasoning, as has been the norm in the past. (Randall et al., 2007). Several important issues complicate the model validation process. First,... it [is] difficult to decide which of the many aspects of climate are important for a good simulation. Second, climate models must be compared against present (e.g., ) or past climate,... [neither of which is] an independent dataset since it has already been used for the model development. Third, there is a lack of reliable and consistent observations for present climate... Finally, good model performance evaluated from the present climate... does not necessarily guarantee reliable predictions of future climate. (Reichler and Kim 2008).
11 Some possible reasons We don t agree on which problem we are trying to solve. Key observations are unreliable or unavailable (liquid water). The lack of proxies for the climate sensitivity in the current simulation record reflects model tuning. For instance, most models reasonably represent the top of the atmosphere energy budget for demonstrably wrong distributions of clouds (implicit flux adjustment). In many instances climate modeling lacks an institutional framework.
12 3. It is difficult (rough fitness landscape*) *Held, BAMS (2005, early draft thereof)
13 4. It is impossible (models are not structurally stable)* p(x y) there thus emerges a clear imperative to better understand the consequences of the choices that are commonly made in constructing a plausible AOS model... But? p(x y ) The analysis of multimodel seasonal forecast reliability diagrams... provides a means to quantitatively discount the climate change probabilities in the light of diagnosed unreliability (Palmer et al., 2008). x * McWilliams, PNAS (2007)
14 Evolution of forecast skill for northern and southern hemispheres But NWP has made steady progress... data, resolution, physics Improvement of NWP 8 August 2001 Simmons and Hollingsworth, QJRMS (2002)
15 Resolution Points around the Equator Number of Levels Year Year
16 Physics Here we compare the age as measured by publication date of a particular scheme minus the publication date of the model as a whole for six models and five major parameterizations: (i) gravity wave drag; (ii) deep convection; (iii) shallow convection; (iv) planetary boundary layer; (v) cloud scheme. Parameterization Age Guess which ones are forecast models. Model Index
17 Inferences 1. Progress has been made in making more complex models work, i.e., progress has principally rested on our ability to expand the problem. 2. More complex models are increasingly non-fundamental (no convergence limit), but guarantee new results (managers like this). 3. Even so many lines of evidence suggest that more complex models inherit the problems of simpler models; thus complex models are less fundamental and yet no more reliable than simpler models; hence more emphasis should be placed on developing understanding thereby allowing us to make better basic models (scientists like this). 4. Deficiencies in models reflect deficiencies in both understanding and model craftsmanship, addressing the latter can help clarify the issues in the former. 5. Experience indicates that two independent models are on average better than a single model that is twice as expensive; hence focusing development efforts on a single model would be deleterious.
18 A proposal: Climate Model Hosting Center... tasked with maintaining facilities for running and archiving models provided by national centers and using these to develop climatically relevant data analyses (reanalysis), as well as measures of model performance and improvement (for instance through seasonal prediction). Such a facility could: strengthen and motivate national efforts; build on the success of PCMDI (the well recognized success of the AR4); institutionalize Palmer DEMETER (seamless prediction); archive and protect source code; provide service for national partners and external communities, alleviating basic-science institutes of current service burden; serve as a facility for hosting scientific visitors on projects of up to five years -- beneficial for countries with less cargo ; consume a lot of electricity. --- unlike NCAR it should have an espresso machine.
19 An alternative* idea: The abduction of Europa *Not favored by this speaker
Evalua&ng Downdra/ Parameteriza&ons with High Resolu&on CRM Data
Evalua&ng Downdra/ Parameteriza&ons with High Resolu&on CRM Data Kate Thayer-Calder and Dave Randall Colorado State University October 24, 2012 NOAA's 37th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Convective
More informationAtmospheric Processes
Atmospheric Processes Steven Sherwood Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Where do atmospheric processes come into AR5 WGI? 1. The main feedbacks that control equilibrium
More informationScience Goals for the ARM Recovery Act Radars
DOE/SC-ARM-12-010 Science Goals for the ARM Recovery Act Radars JH Mather May 2012 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States
More informationClouds and Convection
Max-Planck-Institut Clouds and Convection Cathy Hohenegger, Axel Seifert, Bjorn Stevens, Verena Grützun, Thijs Heus, Linda Schlemmer, Malte Rieck Max-Planck-Institut Shallow convection Deep convection
More informationEvaluating GCM clouds using instrument simulators
Evaluating GCM clouds using instrument simulators University of Washington September 24, 2009 Why do we care about evaluation of clouds in GCMs? General Circulation Models (GCMs) project future climate
More informationInteractive comment on Total cloud cover from satellite observations and climate models by P. Probst et al.
Interactive comment on Total cloud cover from satellite observations and climate models by P. Probst et al. Anonymous Referee #1 (Received and published: 20 October 2010) The paper compares CMIP3 model
More informationTHE CURIOUS CASE OF THE PLIOCENE CLIMATE. Chris Brierley, Alexey Fedorov and Zhonghui Lui
THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE PLIOCENE CLIMATE Chris Brierley, Alexey Fedorov and Zhonghui Lui Outline Introduce the warm early Pliocene Recent Discoveries in the Tropics Reconstructing the early Pliocene SSTs
More informationLarge Eddy Simulation (LES) & Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) Françoise Guichard and Fleur Couvreux
Large Eddy Simulation (LES) & Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) Françoise Guichard and Fleur Couvreux Cloud-resolving modelling : perspectives Improvement of models, new ways of using them, renewed views And
More informationObserved Cloud Cover Trends and Global Climate Change. Joel Norris Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Observed Cloud Cover Trends and Global Climate Change Joel Norris Scripps Institution of Oceanography Increasing Global Temperature from www.giss.nasa.gov Increasing Greenhouse Gases from ess.geology.ufl.edu
More informationAn economical scale-aware parameterization for representing subgrid-scale clouds and turbulence in cloud-resolving models and global models
An economical scale-aware parameterization for representing subgrid-scale clouds and turbulence in cloud-resolving models and global models Steven Krueger1 and Peter Bogenschutz2 1University of Utah, 2National
More informationClouds, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity
Clouds, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity Hui Su 1, Jonathan H. Jiang 1, Chengxing Zhai 1, Janice T. Shen 1 David J. Neelin 2, Graeme L. Stephens 1, Yuk L. Yung 3 1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California
More informationAtmospheric Dynamics of Venus and Earth. Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics UCLA 2 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Atmospheric Dynamics of Venus and Earth G. Schubert 1 and C. Covey 2 1 Department of Earth and Space Sciences Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics UCLA 2 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
More informationTowards an NWP-testbed
Towards an NWP-testbed Ewan O Connor and Robin Hogan University of Reading, UK Overview Cloud schemes in NWP models are basically the same as in climate models, but easier to evaluate using ARM because:
More informationReal-time Ocean Forecasting Needs at NCEP National Weather Service
Real-time Ocean Forecasting Needs at NCEP National Weather Service D.B. Rao NCEP Environmental Modeling Center December, 2005 HYCOM Annual Meeting, Miami, FL COMMERCE ENVIRONMENT STATE/LOCAL PLANNING HEALTH
More informationThe San Diego Minisymposia Two Minisymposia. The San Diego Minisymposia. The San Diego Minisymposia Disclaimer. Global Circulation Models
SIAM Minisymposium on Climate Change held at the San Diego Joint Meeting as interpreted by Richard McGehee Seminar on the Mathematics of Climate Change School of Mathematics January 30, 2008 Two Minisymposia
More informationClimate-Weather Modeling Studies Using a Prototype Global Cloud-System Resolving Model
ANL/ALCF/ESP-13/1 Climate-Weather Modeling Studies Using a Prototype Global Cloud-System Resolving Model ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report Argonne Leadership Computing Facility About Argonne
More informationII. Related Activities
(1) Global Cloud Resolving Model Simulations toward Numerical Weather Forecasting in the Tropics (FY2005-2010) (2) Scale Interaction and Large-Scale Variation of the Ocean Circulation (FY2006-2011) (3)
More informationComment on "Observational and model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback"
LLNL-JRNL-422752 Comment on "Observational and model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback" A. J. Broccoli, S. A. Klein January 22, 2010 Science Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account
More informationPotential Climate Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Renewable Energy Technologies. Chien Wang (MIT)
Potential Climate Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Renewable Energy Technologies Chien Wang (MIT) 1. A large-scale installation of windmills Desired Energy Output: supply 10% of the estimated world
More informationCFMIP-2 : Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2
CFMIP-2 : Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 Sandrine Bony on behalf of the CFMIP coordination committee From Victoria to Hamburg WGCM meetings : 2006 WGCM meeting: necessity to develop
More informationClimate Models: Uncertainties due to Clouds. Joel Norris Assistant Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Climate Models: Uncertainties due to Clouds Joel Norris Assistant Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Scripps Institution of Oceanography Global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for
More informationA new positive cloud feedback?
A new positive cloud feedback? Bjorn Stevens Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus, Hamburg (Based on joint work with Louise Nuijens and Malte Rieck) Slide 1/31 Prehistory [W]ater vapor, confessedly
More informationResearch Objective 4: Develop improved parameterizations of boundary-layer clouds and turbulence for use in MMFs and GCRMs
Research Objective 4: Develop improved parameterizations of boundary-layer clouds and turbulence for use in MMFs and GCRMs Steve Krueger and Chin-Hoh Moeng CMMAP Site Review 31 May 2007 Scales of Atmospheric
More informationLong-term Observations of the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) and Shallow cumulus Clouds using Cloud Radar at the SGP ARM Climate Research Facility
Long-term Observations of the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) and Shallow cumulus Clouds using Cloud Radar at the SGP ARM Climate Research Facility Arunchandra S. Chandra Pavlos Kollias Department of Atmospheric
More informationDiurnal Cycle of Convection at the ARM SGP Site: Role of Large-Scale Forcing, Surface Fluxes, and Convective Inhibition
Thirteenth ARM Science Team Meeting Proceedings, Broomfield, Colorado, March 31-April 4, 23 Diurnal Cycle of Convection at the ARM SGP Site: Role of Large-Scale Forcing, Surface Fluxes, and Convective
More informationSPOOKIE: The Selected Process On/Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment
SPOOKIE: The Selected Process On/Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment Mark Webb, Adrian Lock (Met Office), Sandrine Bony (IPSL), Chris Bretherton (UW), Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Hideaki Kawai (MRI), Thorsten Mauritsen
More informationComparison of the Vertical Velocity used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud-Resolving and a Global Climate Model
Comparison of the Vertical Velocity used to Calculate the Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in a Cloud-Resolving and a Global Climate Model H. Guo, J. E. Penner, M. Herzog, and X. Liu Department of Atmospheric,
More informationClimate modelling. Dr. Heike Huebener Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology Hessian Centre on Climate Change
Hessisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie Climate modelling Dr. Heike Huebener Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology Hessian Centre on Climate Change Climate: Definition Weather: momentary state
More informationGCMs with Implicit and Explicit cloudrain processes for simulation of extreme precipitation frequency
GCMs with Implicit and Explicit cloudrain processes for simulation of extreme precipitation frequency In Sik Kang Seoul National University Young Min Yang (UH) and Wei Kuo Tao (GSFC) Content 1. Conventional
More informationSelecting members of the QUMP perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS
Selecting members of the QUMP perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS Isn t one model enough? Carol McSweeney and Richard Jones Met Office Hadley Centre, September 2010 Downscaling a single GCM
More informationDeveloping Continuous SCM/CRM Forcing Using NWP Products Constrained by ARM Observations
Developing Continuous SCM/CRM Forcing Using NWP Products Constrained by ARM Observations S. C. Xie, R. T. Cederwall, and J. J. Yio Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore, California M. H. Zhang
More informationParameterization of Cumulus Convective Cloud Systems in Mesoscale Forecast Models
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Parameterization of Cumulus Convective Cloud Systems in Mesoscale Forecast Models Yefim L. Kogan Cooperative Institute
More informationInference and Analysis of Climate Models via Bayesian Approaches
Inference and Analysis of Climate Models via Bayesian Approaches Gabriel Huerta Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of New Mexico http://math.unm.edu joint work with Charles Jackson (UT-Austin)
More information5.5 QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL
0 0 0. QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL.. Introduction The IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management (GPG000, IPCC, 000), Chapter, Quality Assurance and Quality Control, defines quality
More informationFundamentals of Climate Change (PCC 587): Water Vapor
Fundamentals of Climate Change (PCC 587): Water Vapor DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 2: 9/30/13 Water Water is a remarkable molecule Water vapor
More informationCopernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
Martin Suttie Martin.Suttie@ecmwf.int Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Atmosphere Monitoring Service MISSION Supporting the European strategy "Living well within the boundaries of Turning our planet"
More informationThe impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback.
The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback. Mark Webb, Adrian Lock (Met Office) Thanks also to Chris Bretherton (UW), Sandrine Bony (IPSL),Jason Cole (CCCma), Abderrahmane Idelkadi (IPSL),
More informationCopernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
Vincent-Henri Peuch ECMWF, Head of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
More informationISRE 2400 (Revised), Engagements to Review Historical Financial Statements
International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board Exposure Draft January 2011 Comments requested by May 20, 2011 Proposed International Standard on Review Engagements ISRE 2400 (Revised), Engagements
More informationEvaluation of precipitation simulated over mid-latitude land by CPTEC AGCM single-column model
Evaluation of precipitation simulated over mid-latitude land by CPTEC AGCM single-column model Enver Ramírez Gutiérrez 1, Silvio Nilo Figueroa 2, Paulo Kubota 2 1 CCST, 2 CPTEC INPE Cachoeira Paulista,
More informationRoy W. Spencer 1. Search and Discovery Article #110117 (2009) Posted September 8, 2009. Abstract
AV Satellite Evidence against Global Warming Being Caused by Increasing CO 2 * Roy W. Spencer 1 Search and Discovery Article #110117 (2009) Posted September 8, 2009 *Adapted from oral presentation at AAPG
More informationNuclear War and the Climatic Consequences
NUCLEAR WINTER: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR CIVIL DEFENSE* CONF-871101 42 C. V. Chester A. M. Perry B. F. Hobbs DE87 012524 Emergency Technology Program Energy Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge,
More informationComparison of Four Cloud Schemes in Simulating the Seasonal Mean Field Forced by the Observed Sea Surface Temperature
JULY 2008 S H I M P O E T A L. 2557 Comparison of Four Cloud Schemes in Simulating the Seasonal Mean Field Forced by the Observed Sea Surface Temperature AKIHIKO SHIMPO,* MASAO KANAMITSU, AND SAM F. IACOBELLIS
More informationⅡ. Related Activities
(1) Global Cloud Resolving Model Simulations toward Numerical Weather Forecasting in the Tropics (FY2005-2010) (2) Scale Interaction and Large-Scale Variation of the Ocean Circulation (FY2006-2011) (3)
More informationGraphing Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic and Antarctic
Graphing Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic and Antarctic Summary: Students graph sea ice extent (area) in both polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) over a three-year period to learn about seasonal variations
More informationCEQ Draft Guidance for GHG Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change Committee on Natural Resources 13 May 2015
CEQ Draft Guidance for GHG Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change Committee on Natural Resources 13 May 2015 Testimony of John R. Christy University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am John R. Christy,
More informationIEAGHG Information Paper 2015-10; The Earth s Getting Hotter and So Does the Scientific Debate
IEAGHG Information Paper 2015-10; The Earth s Getting Hotter and So Does the Scientific Debate A recent study published in Nature Climate Change 1 suggests that the rate of climate change we're experiencing
More informationUsing Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection to Inform Cloud Parameterizations in Large-Scale Models
Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection to Inform Cloud Parameterizations in Large-Scale Models S. A. Klein National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
More informationBoundary-Layer Cloud Feedbacks on Climate An MMF Perspective
Boundary-Layer Cloud Feedbacks on Climate An MMF Perspective Matthew E. Wyant Peter N. Blossey Christopher S. Bretherton University of Washington Marat Khairoutdinov Minghua Zhang Stony Brook University
More informationCHAPTER 2 Energy and Earth
CHAPTER 2 Energy and Earth This chapter is concerned with the nature of energy and how it interacts with Earth. At this stage we are looking at energy in an abstract form though relate it to how it affect
More informationFuture needs of remote sensing science in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean: A report to support the Horizon Scan activity of COMNAP and SCAR
Future needs of remote sensing science in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean: A report to support the Horizon Scan activity of COMNAP and SCAR Thomas Wagner (thomas.wagner@nasa.gov) Charles Webb NASA Cryospheric
More informationThe Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Correlation to. EarthComm, Second Edition. Project-Based Space and Earth System Science
The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Achieve, Inc. on behalf of the twenty-six states and partners that collaborated on the NGSS Copyright 2013 Achieve, Inc. All rights reserved. Correlation to,
More informationGuy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong
Diurnal and Semi-diurnal Variations of Rainfall in Southeast China Judy Huang and Johnny Chan Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong
More informationProjections, Predictions, or Trends?
Projections, Predictions, or Trends? The challenges of projecting changes to fire regimes under climate change Bec Harris 9-11 th October, 2013 What are we looking for? Aims differ, and are more or less
More informationName Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather
Name Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather Radiation Convection Currents Winds Jet Streams Energy from the Sun reaches Earth as electromagnetic waves This energy fuels all life on Earth including the
More informationTitelmasterformat durch Klicken. bearbeiten
Evaluation of a Fully Coupled Atmospheric Hydrological Modeling System for the Sissili Watershed in the West African Sudanian Savannah Titelmasterformat durch Klicken June, 11, 2014 1 st European Fully
More informationTurbulence-microphysics interactions in boundary layer clouds
Turbulence-microphysics interactions in boundary layer clouds Wojciech W. Grabowski 1 with contributions from D. Jarecka 2, H. Morrison 1, H. Pawlowska 2, J.Slawinska 3, L.-P. Wang 4 A. A. Wyszogrodzki
More informationPerformance Metrics for Climate Models: WDAC advancements towards routine modeling benchmarks
Performance Metrics for Climate Models: WDAC advancements towards routine modeling benchmarks Peter Gleckler* Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison () LLNL, USA * Representing WDAC and
More informationChanging Clouds in a Changing Climate: Anthropogenic Influences
Changing Clouds in a Changing Climate: Anthropogenic Influences Joel Norris Assistant Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Scripps Institution of Oceanography Global mean radiative forcing of
More informationAN APPLICATION MANUAL FOR BUILDING ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING
AN APPLICATION MANUAL FOR BUILDING ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING D. Bartholomew *, J. Hand #, S. Irving &, K. Lomas %, L. McElroy # F. Parand $, D. Robinson $ and P. Strachan # * DBA, # University
More informationWhat the Heck are Low-Cloud Feedbacks? Takanobu Yamaguchi Rachel R. McCrary Anna B. Harper
What the Heck are Low-Cloud Feedbacks? Takanobu Yamaguchi Rachel R. McCrary Anna B. Harper IPCC Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty. Roadmap 1. Low cloud primer 2. Radiation and low
More informationSTRATEGY & Parametrized Convection
for WP4.1.3 // meeting, 22 Sept 2005 morning, Francoise Guichard some inferences from the EUROCS project EUROCS: european project on cloud systems in NWP/climate models European Component of GCSS (GEWEX
More information8.5 Comparing Canadian Climates (Lab)
These 3 climate graphs and tables of data show average temperatures and precipitation for each month in Victoria, Winnipeg and Whitehorse: Figure 1.1 Month J F M A M J J A S O N D Year Precipitation 139
More informationSECTION 3 Making Sense of the New Climate Change Scenarios
SECTION 3 Making Sense of the New Climate Change Scenarios The speed with which the climate will change and the total amount of change projected depend on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and the
More informationSeasonal & Daily Temperatures. Seasons & Sun's Distance. Solstice & Equinox. Seasons & Solar Intensity
Seasonal & Daily Temperatures Seasons & Sun's Distance The role of Earth's tilt, revolution, & rotation in causing spatial, seasonal, & daily temperature variations Please read Chapter 3 in Ahrens Figure
More informationThe formation of wider and deeper clouds through cold-pool dynamics
The formation of wider and deeper clouds through cold-pool dynamics Linda Schlemmer, Cathy Hohenegger e for Meteorology, Hamburg 2013-09-03 Bergen COST Meeting Linda Schlemmer 1 / 27 1 Motivation 2 Simulations
More informationVery High Resolution Arctic System Reanalysis for 2000-2011
Very High Resolution Arctic System Reanalysis for 2000-2011 David H. Bromwich, Lesheng Bai,, Keith Hines, and Sheng-Hung Wang Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University
More informationAddendum to the CMIP5 Experiment Design Document: A compendium of relevant emails sent to the modeling groups
Addendum to the CMIP5 Experiment Design Document: A compendium of relevant emails sent to the modeling groups CMIP5 Update 13 November 2010: Dear all, Here are some items that should be of interest to
More informationClimate, water and renewable energy in the Nordic countries
102 Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change Hydroclimatic Variability (Proceedings of symposium S6 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS
More informationGlobal Seasonal Phase Lag between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature
Global Seasonal Phase Lag between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature Summer REU Program Professor Tom Witten By Abstract There is a seasonal phase lag between solar heating from the sun and the surface
More informationFrank and Charles Cohen Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA, 16801 -U.S.A.
376 THE SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS William M. Frank and Charles Cohen Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA, 16801 -U.S.A. ABSTRACT IN NUMERICAL
More informationJessica Blunden, Ph.D., Scientist, ERT Inc., Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director,, and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Jessica
More informationME6130 An introduction to CFD 1-1
ME6130 An introduction to CFD 1-1 What is CFD? Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is the science of predicting fluid flow, heat and mass transfer, chemical reactions, and related phenomena by solving numerically
More informationFRENCH ARCTIC INITIATIVE SCIENTIFIC PRIORITIES
FRENCH ARCTIC INITIATIVE SCIENTIFIC PRIORITIES J.J. Pangrazi / Biosphoto J.J. Pangrazi / Biosphoto Conference audience Edouard Bard introductory lecture Dr. Denis-Didier Rousseau (CNRS Senior Research
More informationCopernicus Information Day Q&A presentation
COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE COPERNICUS ATMOSPHERE MONITORING SERVICE Copernicus Information Day Q&A presentation 2 February 2015 Introduction Quite a number of delegates submitted questions in advance
More informationHow To Model The Weather
Convection Resolving Model (CRM) MOLOCH 1-Breve descrizione del CRM sviluppato all ISAC-CNR 2-Ipotesi alla base della parametrizzazione dei processi microfisici Objectives Develop a tool for very high
More informationAddressing Disclosures in the Audit of Financial Statements
Exposure Draft May 2014 Comments due: September 11, 2014 Proposed Changes to the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs) Addressing Disclosures in the Audit of Financial Statements This Exposure Draft
More informationImpact of microphysics on cloud-system resolving model simulations of deep convection and SpCAM
Impact of microphysics on cloud-system resolving model simulations of deep convection and SpCAM Hugh Morrison and Wojciech Grabowski NCAR* (MMM Division, NESL) Marat Khairoutdinov Stony Brook University
More informationBenefits accruing from GRUAN
Benefits accruing from GRUAN Greg Bodeker, Peter Thorne and Ruud Dirksen Presented at the GRUAN/GCOS/WIGOS meeting, Geneva, 17 and 18 November 2015 Providing reference quality data GRUAN is designed to
More informationImproving Representation of Turbulence and Clouds In Coarse-Grid CRMs
Improving Representation of Turbulence and Clouds In CoarseGrid CRMs Peter A. Bogenschutz and Steven K. Krueger University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT Motivation Embedded CRMs in MMF typically have horizontal
More informationSupporting Online Material for
www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5768/1747/dc1 Supporting Online Material for Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea- Level Rise Jonathan T. Overpeck,* Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,
More informationInvestigating mechanisms of cloud feedback differences.
Investigating mechanisms of cloud feedback differences. Mark Webb, Adrian Lock (Met Office) Thanks also to Chris Bretherton (UW), Sandrine Bony (IPSL),Jason Cole (CCCma), Abderrahmane Idelkadi (IPSL),
More informationSolar Flux and Flux Density. Lecture 3: Global Energy Cycle. Solar Energy Incident On the Earth. Solar Flux Density Reaching Earth
Lecture 3: Global Energy Cycle Solar Flux and Flux Density Planetary energy balance Greenhouse Effect Vertical energy balance Latitudinal energy balance Seasonal and diurnal cycles Solar Luminosity (L)
More informationClouds and the Energy Cycle
August 1999 NF-207 The Earth Science Enterprise Series These articles discuss Earth's many dynamic processes and their interactions Clouds and the Energy Cycle he study of clouds, where they occur, and
More informationEvaluation of clouds in GCMs using ARM-data: A time-step approach
Evaluation of clouds in GCMs using ARM-data: A time-step approach K. Van Weverberg 1, C. Morcrette 1, H.-Y. Ma 2, S. Klein 2, M. Ahlgrimm 3, R. Forbes 3 and J. Petch 1 MACCBET Symposium, Royal Meteorological
More informationCentral Bank of Ireland Guidelines on Preparing for Solvency II Pre-application for Internal Models
2013 Central Bank of Ireland Guidelines on Preparing for Solvency II Pre-application for Internal Models 1 Contents 1 Context... 1 2 General... 2 3 Guidelines on Pre-application for Internal Models...
More information1D shallow convective case studies and comparisons with LES
1D shallow convective case studies and comparisons with CNRM/GMME/Méso-NH 24 novembre 2005 1 / 17 Contents 1 5h-6h time average vertical profils 2 2 / 17 Case description 5h-6h time average vertical profils
More informationREGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING
REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING Regional Climate Modelling at the Hungarian Meteorological Service ANDRÁS HORÁNYI (horanyi( horanyi.a@.a@met.hu) Special thanks: : Gabriella Csima,, Péter Szabó, Gabriella
More informationVirtual Earth These images show an Earth we could never see in reality. Some show the planet emptied of water, others the
Feature Story 1249 Virtual Earth These images show an Earth we could never see in reality. Some show the planet emptied of water, others the invisible strands that make up the magnetosphere. Some show
More informationSolar Energy Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. Patrick Mathiesen, Sanyo Fellow, UCSD Jan Kleissl, UCSD
Solar Energy Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models Patrick Mathiesen, Sanyo Fellow, UCSD Jan Kleissl, UCSD Solar Radiation Reaching the Surface Incoming solar radiation can be reflected,
More informationComments on Episodes of relative global warming, by de Jager en Duhau
Comments on Episodes of relative global warming, by de Jager en Duhau Gerbrand Komen, September 2009 (g.j.komen@hetnet.nl) Abstract De Jager and Duhau (2009 [dj-d]) derived a statistical relation between
More informationLimitations of Equilibrium Or: What if τ LS τ adj?
Limitations of Equilibrium Or: What if τ LS τ adj? Bob Plant, Laura Davies Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK With thanks to: Steve Derbyshire, Alan Grant, Steve Woolnough and Jeff Chagnon
More informationExamining the Recent Pause in Global Warming
Examining the Recent Pause in Global Warming Global surface temperatures have warmed more slowly over the past decade than previously expected. The media has seized this warming pause in recent weeks,
More informationCloud Radiation and the Law of Attraction
Convec,on, cloud and radia,on Convection redistributes the thermal energy yielding (globally-averaged), a mean lapse rate of ~ -6.5 o C/km. Radiative processes tend to produce a more negative temperature
More informationSub-grid cloud parametrization issues in Met Office Unified Model
Sub-grid cloud parametrization issues in Met Office Unified Model Cyril Morcrette Workshop on Parametrization of clouds and precipitation across model resolutions, ECMWF, Reading, November 2012 Table of
More informationStudents use of physical models to experience key aspects of scientists knowledge creation process
Students use of physical to experience key aspects of scientists knowledge creation process Kim A. Kastens, Education Development Center Ann Rivet, Teachers College Cheryl Lyons, Teachers College Alison
More informationThe horizontal diffusion issue in CRM simulations of moist convection
The horizontal diffusion issue in CRM simulations of moist convection Wolfgang Langhans Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich June 9, 2009 Wolfgang Langhans Group retreat/bergell June
More informationData Sets of Climate Science
The 5 Most Important Data Sets of Climate Science Photo: S. Rahmstorf This presentation was prepared on the occasion of the Arctic Expedition for Climate Action, July 2008. Author: Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor
More informationEvaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models
Click Here for Full Article JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113,, doi:10.1029/2007jd009334, 2008 Evaluating the present-day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models Robert
More information