User Guide to the Merlin Fixed Odds Soccer Forecasting System

Transcription

1 User Guide to the Merlin Fixed Odds Soccer Forecasting System Donald Hunting Copyright 2006 Donald Hunting, MASC (Dip). All Rights Reserved.

2 The right of Donald Hunting to be identified as the author of this work and the associated spreadsheet application known as Merlin is asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act This ebook and the associated spreadsheet application known as Merlin are sold subject to the condition that they shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out or otherwise circulated with or without any form of binding or cover, or by any means whatsoever, including but not restricted to floppy disc, CD, DVD, recording tape or any form of transmission electronic or otherwise without the express and written permission of the author Donald Hunting. Such permission will not be unreasonably withheld and those wishing to affiliate to the product or to explore the possibility of any other commercial association whether or not relating to this work should the author First A Word of Reassurance. Merlin Fixed Odds Soccer Forecasting Application contains macros. They are confined to the Application and are essential to it s working. They DO NOT harbour any computer virus! They WILL NOT affect any other program on your computer. When you run Merlin your computer may display a warning, pointing-out the presence of the macros and offering you a choice of either disabling or enabling them. If this should happen, choose to ENABLE the macros otherwise Merlin s functionality will be seriously impaired. In Windows XP, if the security settings in your copy of Excel are set to high the macros in Merlin will be automatically disabled without giving you the choice to override. In this case an alert box will appear, explaining what has happened. The way to deal with this latter scenario is to exit the Merlin application but to keep Excel running. Then click on Tools at the top of the Excel screen and select Options from the drop down menu. Then select the security settings tab and at the bottom of the dialogue box click on the macro button. In the dialogue box that then appears set macro security to low then click on OK. Now when you run Merlin the essential macro content of the application will be utilised. 2

3 User Guide to the Merlin Fixed Odds Soccer Forecasting System Introduction Supposing you walked along any main street and asked the first hundred people you met to forecast the results of a dozen soccer matches, what would you have? Well, for a start, you d have 100 lines. And you could expect two things! 1. It is unlikely there would be a totally correct forecast amongst them. The odds are overwhelmingly against it. 2. None of the forecasts would be totally wrong. Each one would correctly predict the result of one or more of the matches. The odds are overwhelmingly in favour of this. This means that the totally correct result would likely be scattered in bits across several of the 100 lines and not be found in any one single line. So now we have some definite data to work with that has nothing to do with league tables or form. Merlin uses this data to forecast the results of soccer matches with astonishing accuracy, and can allow for the inevitable error that creeps in. So, if this data has nothing to do with form or league tables what exactly is it and where do you get it? It need be nothing more than your taking any three matches together as a group and simply allocating each a result. If you can do that and succeed in getting just one result of the three correct yourself, you will have created part correct data. Enter that part correct data into Merlin and Merlin WILL GIVE YOU THE CORRECT RESULT FOR ALL THREE GAMES! You could use as your input data the forecasts of the soccer experts of the sporting press. You could even go to the trouble of keeping a record of how teams have fared over recent weeks to help you form your own opinion. The point is that it doesn t matter how you go about creating your input data. Whichever way you choose, the simple requirement is that you ideally succeed in creating part correct data. Get one result in three correct yourself and Merlin will deliver the correct result for all three games. Guaranteed! So let s forget the old and timeworn soccer forecasting ideas. If they d been any good at all, the pools would have gone out of business a long time ago and the Fixed Odds coupons would have disappeared even before that. As it is, bookmakers consistently make about 16% on turnover and that s after paying-out winnings! 3

4 Merlin takes a different approach and ideally needs only one thing from you: that you provide data that are part correct. There is nothing complicated about this. All it means is that for every three or four games handled as a group that you wish Merlin to correctly forecast, you yourself are able to correctly identify the result of just one match IN THREE. In other words, you are feeding Merlin with PART CORRECT data. Do that and Merlin will produce the correct results for ALL THREE games in Play3 or ALL FOUR games in Play4 WITHOUT FAIL every time! And there s more good news! Even when you do not always succeed in selecting foolproof data lines so that the odd WRONG line creeps in, Merlin can make any allowance you like for it and still keep the correct result. Merlin is a seriously potent tool that can repay you a thousand-fold and will quickly help you get the results you want with Fixed Odds football forecasting. You simply key-in the required data and in a split second Merlin gives you the lines for your coupon. Now let s move-on to see exactly how Merlin does this, and how so very easy it is to use. Three Match Forecasts Merlin is a tool for doing the job quickly and efficiently, making allowances for errors in your data to ensure that you keep the correct line. The data you use are important. The basis of the Merlin system is that you more often than not enter data that are part correct. And in practice you ll find that the football results forecasting data you get from your daily newspaper and the specialist sporting press are part-correct most of the time. And that s all you ll ever need to use Merlin successfully. And Merlin can make any errors in the data actually work for you. For three matches taken together there are 27 possible lines. One of these will, of course, be correct. Eighteen will be partly correct and only eight will be completely wrong. For example, if the actual outcome of any group of three matches resulted as three draws (XXX), then these following eight lines of the 27 possible results would be completely wrong: The remainder would be partly correct. That is to say that one or two X s would appear somewhere in the forecast, e.g. 12X, XX1, and so on. 4

5 So you see, the odds are in favour of the partly correct line because there are more of them. And because there are more of them, they must be easier to find. In fact, the odds are 2:1 in favour of your getting a part-correct result every time you predict the score of three matches taken together as a group. If all your data-input lines are part-correct Merlin is absolutely certain to give you the correct line for your pools entry. In those circumstances, it cannot fail! Where do you find part-correct data? Frankly you could simply guess the scores of any group of three matches and have a greater than 66% chance of getting a part-correct result. Remember, there are only 27 possible results for any group of three matches and whichever of those turns out to be correct 18 of those 27 possible results will ALWAYS BE PART CORRECT. You could follow your daily newspaper pools forecasting expert. Note how he forecasts any group of three matches the first three on the coupon, if you like. It is unlikely he ll get all three wrong, but if he happens to do so one week take his forecast for those same three numbers the next week. He s not likely to fail completely twice in succession! To do so would mean his defeating considerable odds. In other words, he is virtually bound to give you a part correct line the second time around. And remember, Merlin will allow for as many totally wrong lines as you like and still keep the winner! And that s a fact. How Does It Work? If you haven t already done so, start-up MS Excel and launch Merlin. The application should open with the Select worksheet. If it opens with any other, simply click on the Select tab at the bottom of the screen to reach the Select worksheet. Select is Merlin s data input area and it is where you enter your part correct data. Note that you may only input data to the white coloured cells and to the tan coloured cells. All other cells are locked. You will notice that the display is divided into two distinct input grids: The Primary Selector grid and the Secondary Selector grid of the Input Selector Panel. The Input Selector Panel is where you enter up to eight lines of part correct data of your own choice up to four in the white coloured cells of the Primary Selector grid and up to four in the tan coloured cells of the Secondary Selector grid. It really is so very easy to use. And to demonstrate just how easy it is, let s get down to some practical examples. 5

6 Example 1: Dealing with Three-Match Groups Enter the following four lines of input data, in the same top-to-bottom and leftto-right order shown here, into the four columns of white cells A to D in the Primary Selector grid of the Manual Input Selector panel. You could, when using Play3, choose to enter up to a total of eight lines of input data by also filling-in the Secondary Selector grid once the Primary Selector grid is full. For the purposes of this example, however, leave the tan coloured cells of the Secondary Selector grid empty. X 1 X Now simply click on the Play3 tab at the bottom of the screen to see Merlin s forecast entries for your pools coupon. In Play3 all 27 possible lines of results that could occur for any group of three matches are shown. Underneath you ll notice a row of blue coloured cells that run the full width of the possible 27 results display. And directly above this row of blue cells you ll see a row of white cells. Take a close look at the row of white cells. You ll notice that the columns A, E, J, S, V and Y are the only columns where the white cells display an upward pointing red arrow. The totals box above the display grid confirms that there are six red arrows in all. For the time being, ignore the figures in the row of blue cells. What this means is, given that all your input data is part correct, the actual result of the three matches concerned MUST be one of those six listed in the upper table and pointed to by the red arrows. In other words, in this example, the actual result of the group of three games in question absolutely MUST be one of these following six lines: X X X X Only 6 lines left for you to enter onto your coupon from a possible 27. This is an ordinary example of how Merlin reliably uses part-correct data to produce soccer results forecasts that cannot fail to retain the winning line. Try it for yourself. Pick the actual results of any three matches. Enter into Merlin, exactly as outlined above, four lines of data to replace those used in this example and make sure that each line of your input data contains just one correct result (it doesn t need be the same one for each line) from the actual results of the games concerned. Merlin will ALWAYS keep the winning line as well as at the same time reducing your coupon entry to the minimum 6

7 number of lines possible. No matter how many times you put this to the test, Merlin will always get it right. Guaranteed! Remember, when using Play3 you are asking Merlin to forecast the actual outcome of three matches taken together as a single group. And each of your input data lines is your estimate of how those three matches in the group could result. Even if you choose to enter the maximum number of eight input data lines, you are still dealing with just one set of three matches and each of those eight input data lines is your suggestion to Merlin of how that one group of three matches could result. All you personally need to do is to achieve just ONE correct result in EACH of your input data lines. It doesn t need to be for the same match. Get just ONE result correct in EACH of your input data lines and Merlin will isolate with 100% accuracy the group of forecasts for your coupon which absolutely MUST contain the winning line. Example 2: Dealing With Three Matches & Allowing For Error So much for retaining the winning line when all your input data are part correct. But in practice you ll notice that you do not always succeed in selecting foolproof data lines that would guarantee retention of the winning line. What happens is that the odd wrong line creeps-in. That is to say, a data line which fails to have even one correct result in it. For example: Data Result 2 1 X 2 X 1 If you had assumed the above data line to be part correct you d have lost the winning line. How can Merlin overcome this difficulty? How, using the same data, can Merlin allow for the odd error that is bound to occur in a number of data lines? Let an example, where all three games resulted in draws, illustrate the principle. Using as the input data the last eight home results of the three home teams, previous to the date of the matches in question, we have: Last Eight Home Results of Home Teams Result X X 1 X X X X X X 1 2 X X 7

8 You needn t use eight selections. You may use as few as you like. But the more input data lines you use the smaller and more economical your coupon entry, as Merlin will discard more. However, using a greater number of input data lines also leads to a greater risk of your including a completely wrong line and this serves to illustrate the present point well. Look at the data lines closely and you ll see that the fifth line is completely wrong compared to the final result. All other data lines are part correct. So there s just one error in the data lines. Now, if you d followed the earlier described principle of selecting only those results in Merlin s evaluation that are pointed to by red arrows you d have failed to enter the winning line on your coupon. Naturally, you wouldn t have known that at the time, but with Merlin you could have allowed for that error and kept the winning line. How? It s so easy! Begin by clearing all input data from the Input Selector Panel in Select and entering instead the last eight home results of the home teams, as shown above. Enter them from left to right, just as they re shown above. The first four sets of results therefore go into the Primary Selector grid in columns A to D and the last four sets of results go into the Secondary Selector grid in columns E to H. Now click on the Play3 tab and there you have Merlin s evaluation. Just let s take a brief moment to recap what you are doing here. You are attempting to avoid being let down by that odd error in your data. Experience will teach you what that margin of error is likely to be and Merlin will reliably sort out the nuts and bolts for you. So, to begin with, you assume your input data is predominantly part correct but you also suspect that there s the odd error present. You wish, therefore, to allow for up to one wrong line in the input data. That being so, you keep only those forecast lines pointed to by red arrows, if any, AND ALSO those forecast lines above where any of the blue row cells contains the figure 1. You ignore all others! And so in this example you are left with lines A, J, S, Z and AA. These lines, then, are those that you d enter into your coupon. You ll remember that the actual result of the games in question was XXX, and you have kept it. You ll see that Merlin had marked-up that result with a figure 1 in the blue row cell below it indicating that if one of your input data lines was wrong you d need to include on your coupon this, and any other result marked-up in the same way with a figure 1, in order to be certain of keeping the winning line. 8

9 It is, of course, just as easy to allow for any number of totally wrong input data lines as you wish. If, for instance, you want to allow for up to two totally wrong input data lines, keep and enter onto your coupon all those lines pointed to by red arrows AND all those lines where the blue row cells beneath contain the figure 1 or the figure 2. Naturally your entry is bigger, but so too is the safety margin. If no red arrows are displayed this means that your input data contains one or more totally wrong lines for all of the 27 possible results. This leaves you with the choice of either returning to Select and changing one or more lines of your input data or entering onto your coupon those forecasts identified in the blue row in Play3 with the figure 1 or whatever other figure is displayed there in the blue row that you decide to run with. This is entirely a matter for personal choice. Experience will teach you which is the right course for you. Example 3: Dealing With Four-Match Groups The next step is to handle four matches. You can use four matches threetimes for the Points Pool, often bringing a substantial return, or on the Fixed Odds list where the dividends are known in advance. Merlin assumes there will be at least two home wins, or two away wins, or two draws in any group of four matches. There may be three or even four of any, but there must be at least two excluding, of course, in circumstances of match postponement and the like. In Play4 Merlin will evaluate your input data from the point-of-view of each of those three key possibilities two homes, two aways and two draws and display the results in three separate and dedicated blocks that you access by clicking on the appropriate Option Button in Play4. Each of those three scenarios produces 33 possible combinations of results and it may surprise you to learn that the two homes approach will contain the correct line much more often than not. Even Points Pools and Short List matches, carefully chosen by bookmakers compilers as being difficult, will still show virtually the same average. Therefore, if you choose to play the forecasts from just one of Merlin s Play4 blocks you should most often choose the two homes block. But you can choose in Play4 to use instead the two aways, or two draws blocks. You do this by simply clicking the Option Button next to the selection you want. You may also play the forecasts from all three blocks together. More later about this particularly powerful procedure. Data input is made in Select, as for Play3, but there is a significant difference in the use of the Input Selector panel. For the purposes of Play4 evaluations, Merlin handles your input data in the Input Selector Panel differently to the way it handles it for Play3. This is 9

10 necessary because in Play4 you are using groups of three matches for your input data in order to forecast the result of a group of four matches, whereas in Play3 you re using groups of three matches to forecast the result of a group of three matches. The extra match in the group makes for the difference in the way Merlin tackles the job of forecasting the group outcome. In essence, all four columns A to D of the Primary Selector grid are dealt with by Merlin in much the same manner as that for Play3 but the four columns E to H of the Secondary Selector grid are handled by Merlin in a special way that ties-in the fourth match of the group when you re using Play4. There s just one thing different you yourself must do when using Play4 as distinct from when you re using Play3. It is this. When creating part correct input data for Play4 you must use a minimum of TWO input data lines for every group of FOUR matches you wish Merlin to forecast. You enter one three-match input data line into the Primary Selector grid and the other three-match input data line into the Secondary Selector grid. This is called overlapping. Here s an example to illustrate the point. Assume you decide that the actual outcome of the group of four matches concerned will include at least two home wins as, statistically, it is most likely to. But the four matches in your group aren t often going to be ALL home wins. Much of the time they ll likely include an away win or a draw or both. Let s assume for the purposes of this example that the away win could be any of the first three matches in the group of four and the draw any of the last three, as shown below. 1: 2 2: 2 X 3: 2 X 4: X Be aware that all you re doing here is allowing that the away win could be any of the first three matches in your group of four, and the draw any of the last three matches in the same group of four. In other words, you re creating TWO lines of input data for the FOUR matches you wish Merlin to forecast and you re doing that by including matches 2 and 3 in BOTH lines of your part correct input data. Essentially, that s all there is to it for you. For EVERY group of FOUR matches you wish Merlin to forecast in Play4 you choose a minimum of TWO three-match part correct input data lines created and organised as shown above. And bear in-mind that your input data groups don t have to be of three identical predictions as they are above. They can be any combination of results that you feel is right. For example the first three matches above could have been entered as, say, and the last three as, 10

11 say, X 1 2 or, for that matter, any other combination. It s your choice, with your overriding aim always being that you re seeking to include at least one correct result in each of the two overlapping groups of three to give you a minimum of two part correct lines for Merlin to work with in Play4. Look carefully again at the layout of both groups of three in the illustration above and take a little time to understand why they re overlapped at matches 2 and 3. That is to say, why matches 2 and 3 belong to EACH of the two groups. Bear in mind that you are asking Merlin to forecast the actual outcome of a group of FOUR matches. To do that for you, Merlin needs at least TWO part correct input data lines. The first of these goes into column A of the Primary Selector grid and accounts for matches 1, 2 and 3 of the four matches. The second of your part correct input data lines goes into column E of the Secondary Selector grid and accounts for matches 2, 3 and 4 of the four matches. Matches 2 and 3 are included in BOTH of the part correct input data lines. This is overlapping. And you may enter the same input data results for matches 2 and 3 in each of those input data lines or make them different. To see more clearly what s required here, think of the group of four matches you wish Merlin to forecast for you. Your first line of input data should prove to contain one result equal to any of the actual results for matches 1, 2 and 3, it doesn t matter which, AND your second line of input data should prove to contain one result equal to any of the actual results for matches 2, 3 and 4. Make sure you always enter the first part correct input data line into Merlin s Primary Selector grid and the second part correct input data line into the Secondary Selector grid. Merlin knows when you do that and then choose Play4 that your part correct input data has been overlapped, and will automatically calculate it in the appropriate manner to forecast a group of four matches. To recap. Having created and overlapped your part correct input data for Play4 as outlined, all you then do is to enter the overlapped input data for matches 1, 2 and 3 into the Primary Selector grid and the overlapped input data for matches 2, 3 and 4 into the Secondary Selector grid. In the example above, this means that goes into the A column of the Primary Selector grid and X X X goes into the E column of the Secondary Selector grid. And should you choose to enter extra lines of input data into Play4 for the same group of four matches in order to reduce your coupon entry to the minimum, you must do so by splitting your input data equally between the Primary Selector grid and the Secondary Selector grid. In other words you d construct any additional input data according to the overlapping procedure described earlier and you d always put the overlapped input data lines for matches 1, 2 and 3 into the Primary Selector grid and the overlapped input data lines for matches 2, 3 and 4 into the Secondary Selector grid. And, what s more, you d always do this on a column for column basis. Your first line of overlapped input data for matches 1, 2 and 3 goes into column A of the Primary Selector grid with your first line of overlapped input data for matches 2, 3 and 4 going into column E of the Secondary Selector grid. Your second line of overlapped input data for the same matches 1, 2 and 3 goes into column B of the Primary Selector grid and your second line of 11

12 overlapped input data for the same matches 2, 3 and 4 goes into column F of the Secondary Selector grid. And so on. It then only remains for you to click on the Play4 tab to see Merlin s recommended entry for your coupon. Like Play3, the analysis results in Play4 are displayed in a single row of blue cells with the red arrow white cells immediately above. Click on the 2 Homes, 2 Aways and 2 Draws Option Buttons to see Merlin s evaluations for each. IMPORTANT: Whenever you enter or remove data in Select and then review it in Play4 YOU MUST ALWAYS click on the Option Button of your choice in Play4 to get the updated evaluation. YOU MUST DO THIS EVERYTIME. EVEN IF THE OPTION BUTTON OF YOUR CHOICE IS ALREADY SELECTED WHEN YOU OPEN PLAY4, CLICK IT AGAIN. Let s now take the procedures for using Play4 together with the input data mentioned initially to perform a working example. Make the Select sheet active by clicking on the Select tab in the bottom lefthand corner of the screen. Start with a completely blank Input Selector Panel. This means that if there s existing data anywhere in the panel, delete it. Now enter in the white A column of the Input Selector Panel s Primary Selector grid. Place one 2 in the first cell at the top, another 2 in the cell below and the final 2 in the third cell at the bottom of the column. Next enter X X X in the E column of the Secondary Selector grid. One X goes in the cell at the top of the column, followed by another X in the cell below and the third and final X in the cell at the bottom of the column. Press Enter after you ve typed-in each symbol. You should now have an Input Selector Panel with only TWO COLUMNS of input data entered columns A and E. The remaining columns should be empty. Now click on the Play4 tab at the bottom of the screen. In Play4, for the purposes of this example, click on the 2 Homes Option Button. You MUST click on it even if it is already selected. The reason for this is that the displays in Play4 WILL NOT UPDATE until you do click one of the three Option Buttons. Remember, even if the option you want is already selected whichever of the three it may be you MUST STILL CLICK ON IT AFTER ENTERING OR REMOVING INPUT DATA IN Select to update the display. In this example the seven columns 6, 12, 14, 18, 22, 24 and 26 in the updated 2 Homes display in Play4, each have a red arrow indicating that if all your input data are part correct and the actual result of the group of four games in question includes at least two home wins then that actual result must be one of the results shown in these seven columns. The results pointed-to by the red arrows in these seven columns, then, are those you d enter onto your coupon. 12

13 To see Merlin s recommended coupon entries for the same input data evaluated for 2 Aways or 2 Draws, simply click on the 2 Aways and 2 Draws Option Buttons, respectively. When you carryout those actions, notice how the grid of 33 possible results changes as well as Merlin s recommended coupon entries. You can intensify the evaluation procedure by returning to Select and entering up to six extra lines of overlapped input data into the Input Selector Panel three in the Primary Selector grid and three in the Secondary Selector grid. Remember, when you enter input data into the tan cells of the Secondary Selector grid Merlin evaluates it in a special way in Play4 by first overlapping it with your other input data in the Primary Selector grid. This is why it s important for you to handle your part correct input data for Play4 in the overlap method described earlier and to allocate it between the Primary Selector grid and the Secondary Selector grid in the recommended manner. This applies only to Play4 and does NOT affect Play3 where you d simply fillin as many or as few of the entire range of A to H columns of the Input Selector Panel, from left to right, as required. Example 4: Dealing With Four Matches & Allowing For Error You ll remember that in Play4 you may use any of the three possible evaluation blocks 2 Homes, 2 Aways or 2 Draws but that the 2 Homes block is more often than not likely to be the correct choice. You ll remember, too, that you need overlapped input data that is predominantly part correct, and to ensure Merlin maximises the selection procedure you may use up to eight lines of overlapped input data. This example allows for one error in the input data. The 2 Homes block is used, and the actual results of the four games we are forecasting we are assuming to be 1, 2, X, 1. So that is the result Merlin must capture. Click on the Select tab and enter the following eight lines of input data into the Input Selector Panel, the first four in the white cells of the Primary Selector grid and the remaining four in the tan cells of the Secondary Selector grid. When you come to do this for yourself in a real situation remember to use the overlapping procedure outlined earlier and that the overriding aim is that all your overlapped input data should be part correct. For the purposes of this example the overlapping procedure has already been done, so simply enter the following input data into the Input Selector Panel from left to right, exactly as shown below, starting with column A in the Primary Selector grid and ending with column H in the Secondary Selector grid. 13

14 1 1 2 X X X 1 2 X X X 1 1 X X 2 2 Now simply click on the Play4 tab. And remember to click on the 2 Homes Option Button. Even if it s already selected, click on it again. The figures in the blue cells each indicate the number of your overlapped input data lines that would be totally wrong if the result in the same column in the table above turned-out to be true. In this example you re interested only in those columns where there are red arrows (if any) pointing to forecasts in the upper table AND ALSO all those blue cells that carry the figure 1 because you are allowing for up to only one error. In this instance there are no red arrows displayed and there are just three columns that qualify with a figure 1 in the blue cells: columns numbered 5, 6 and 14. These three, then, are those you d enter onto your coupon, and, sure enough, the line you wanted is there. Line 14 gives you the winner 1,2,X, 1 the result of the four matches that was, for the purposes of this example, named earlier as the winner. Merlin has accurately eliminated over 90% of the possible score lines and still kept the winning score line for you. What this example demonstrates is that if the actual results of any four games Merlin is forecasting for you in Play4 include 2 Home wins, 2 Away wins or 2 Draws and even if your overlapped input data contains one totally wrong line, you keep the winning result. If you wished to allow for up to two lines of overlapped input data to be completely wrong, you d also keep those columns in Play4 where the blue cells show the figure 2. In this example that would produce a coupon entry of 15 lines in all: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24 and 32. Considering there is in fact a total of 81 possible combinations of results for any four matches, it has to be said that ending-up with just 15 is pretty good going by any standard of measurement. But if you wanted to reduce them still further you may easily do so by allowing for, say, one draw. That would, in this example, eliminate lines 1, 4, 5, 13 and 20 leaving you with just ten lines for four matches and still keeping the winner. When allowing for error in your input data, the choice is this: either keep only columns with a red arrow (if any) and those with a figure 1 indicator so allowing for up to one error in your input data, or allow for a bigger margin of error and reduce the resultant greater number of lines by logical assumption. What to do, and when, will become more obvious with experience. Remember, although the 2 Homes block was used in this example and although you yourself will use the 2 Homes block more often than not, there will be times when you will choose to use instead either the 2 Aways block or the 2 Draws block. The decision as to which will depend very much upon how 14

15 the run of play has gone with the group of teams in question over their previous two or three outings. For example, if the previous results of the group you ve put together predominantly show away wins with a sprinkling of draws, choose the 2 Homes block this time. If, however, the results show a weighting of home wins and some draws, choose the 2 Aways block. And if recent previous results show no draws at all, consider using the 2 Draws block. You ll soon learn to recognise the signs. But the overriding rule is, when in doubt use the 2 Homes block. When dealing with four matches together, use part correct overlapped input data, choose the correct block and make allowance for a small margin of error for extra safety. Merlin will do the rest to help you cash-in. But, as mentioned earlier, there is another and particularly powerful way to use Merlin s Play4. This is by using together the forecasts from all three blocks two homes, two aways and two draws. To use this procedure, enter your part correct overlapped input data into the Input Selector Panel in Select in the manner already outlined for Play4. To reduce the number of forecast lines for your coupon to just a small total, complete at least columns 'A and B in the Primary Selector grid and columns E and F in the Secondary Selector grid. You may, of course, go on to complete further columns to reduce your coupon entry still further, following the overlapping procedure each time. And if the total number of red arrows across all three blocks in Play4 are just too few in number, or even nonexistent, progressively delete input data from the columns of the Input Selector Panel until the total number of red arrowed forecasts offered in all three blocks of Play4 is acceptable to you. You must remember when deleting input data from columns of the Input Selector Panel that is intended for use with Play4, to do so on a strict column-for-column basis. In other words, just as when you enter input data for Play4 you complete column A in the Primary Selector grid and then column E in the Secondary Selector grid and so on, you delete input data from the columns in the same way. So, for example, say you d fully completed both the Primary and Secondary Selector grids and then found the forecasts in Play4 too few for safety and therefore you decided to remove one set of input data, you d delete the input data contents from column D in the Primary Selector grid AND column H in the Secondary Selector grid. The contents of any further columns would be deleted in the same column-for-column manner. Having entered the amount of part correct input data you want, go to Play4. Click on the 2 Homes Option Button and note the results pointed-to by any red arrows displayed. Then click on the 2 Aways Option Button and note the results there pointed-to by any red arrows. Do the same for the 2 Draws block. In many instances you ll find you ve a grand total of less than 10 lines from all three blocks to enter onto your coupon. And remember, this is out of a total of 81 possible results for four games taken together! 15

16 The strength of this approach is that if each of your lines of overlapped input data in Select are part correct then no matter whether the actual results of the four games in question turn out to have two or more home wins, OR two or more away wins OR two or more draws, you ve won because in combining the forecasts from all three blocks you ve covered every eventuality. The Fixed Odds Coupon In recent years the growth of the fixed odds coupon has been remarkable, with the larger bookmakers printing their own. Why should you favour this type of coupon? Simply because the odds are fixed. The coupons are published some two-weeks before the matches are due to be played and the bookmaker s odds, given for each match, are fixed at the time of publication unlike with horse racing, where the bookmaker can vary the odds of any horse in proportion to the total money staked right up to a second before a race begins. So, as its name implies, a fixed odds coupon gives definite pre-set odds for each match. For example, using the British fractional odds system, for any given match the odds format you ll come across would be something like this: Home Away Draw The selections odds are the numbers given under Home, Away and Draw. What this means is that if you were to place a 1.00 bet on the home team winning, and it did, your winnings would be eight-fifteenths of your stake money. In this example your stake is 1.00 so your winnings would be Your total return would be 0.53 winnings plus the return of your stake, giving 1.53 in all. Of course had you placed that same 1.00 bet on the away team to win, and it did, your winnings would be five times your stake. You d walk away with 5.00 winnings plus your 1.00 stake to give you a total return of The rule with every fractional odd is that the top figure is your profit and the bottom figure is the stake required to win that profit. Therefore, the above home odd of 8-15 gives a profit of 8.00 for every staked. You win what s on the top if you stake what s on the bottom! But odds are flexible things and you may stake whatever you want and, in winning, receive a proportionate return as illustrated earlier with the 1.00 stake calculation. Once you familiarise yourself with a fixed odds coupon you will notice that the same odds apply to both score draws and no-score draws. No matter how 16

17 many homes, aways or draws occur, the odds cannot be changed. The bookmaker must pay you accordingly. This isn t the case with the Treble Chance coupons where a large number of homes, aways or draws will see the odds of your winning line tumble dramatically. Eight score draws one Saturday could win you 1,000,000 but the following week may only raise 1.00! Another major difference between the coupons that you can use to great effect, is that Treble Chance coupons, for the most part, deal solely with one type of result. You cannot mix homes, aways or draws in the same bet as you can on a fixed odds coupon. Yet a typical matches fixtures list will certainly produce all three types of results in a pattern dictated by the laws of probability and chance. Therefore, for maximum effect, your coupon must reflect these patterns and only the fixed odds coupon will permit that. Always bear in-mind that bookmakers are in business to make a profit. They are generally impeccably honest but will seldom do you any favours. Their tactic is to attempt to attract you into betting in a way that will place you in their hands, when what you should be doing is quite the opposite. The best advice is to avoid everything on the fixed odds coupon except the Long List, which offers you the greatest scope in selecting matches with complete freedom of choice no gimmicks or twists involved! Steer a wide berth around the rest of the coupon, including the Correct Scores List, Half- Time Results, First Goal Scorer List and so on. When it comes to making your entry on the fixed odds coupon, be sure to list all of Merlin s three or four game forecasts vertically that is to say, from top to bottom like this: 1 X 1 And put multiple forecast lines for the same three games alongside each other like this: X If Merlin provides you with more forecast lines than can fit on to one coupon, simply spread them over as many coupons as it takes. Place the same amount of stake per line. 17

18 When you come to hand-in your coupon to the bookmaker, tell the clerk that your bet is an Accumulator. This means your winnings from the correct line are determined by first calculating their value from the odds of one game and then subjecting that return amount to the odds of the second game followed in turn by subjecting that return amount to the odds of the third game. And if you ve used Play4 then the return amount from the first three games will be subjected to the odds of the fourth game. You ll appreciate that this means your stake on the winning line is effectively being multiplied, without additional cost to you, to maximise your winnings from the successful line. Of course, the most convenient way to place your bets is over the Internet. You ll need to open accounts with the bookmakers of your choice to bet online. The great thing about betting online is that you have a vast array of bookmakers to go at, including those overseas firms who also cover football matches. Remember, even when betting online, always to declare your bet as an Accumulator. Winnings Calculator You may quickly establish just how much in winnings each line of your bet would produce for you should it prove to be the winner, by entering the odds and your line stake amount into the Winnings Calculator. Make your input only into the white cells. All other cells are locked. Three columns are allocated for your odds input. The first is for US and Decimal Odds. It s unlikely you ll come across US odds for soccer betting but if ever you should the Winnings Calculator will handle them for you. Nowadays many bookmakers, particularly on the Internet, use the Decimal or Euro Decimal Odds format (two names for the same thing). Non UK European bookmakers have always shown their odds in this way. Enter either US or Decimal Odds into the column of the same name. The Fractional Odds format has been used in the UK since betting began. When entering a Fractional Odd into Merlin s Winnings Calculator, place the first part of the odd (or top part of the fraction) into the Top column of the Fractional Odds panel, and the second (or bottom part of the fraction) into the Bottom column of the Fractional Odds panel. Be sure to place both the first (top) and second (bottom) parts of the same Fractional Odd for any given game on to the same line. You may use a mix of US, Decimal and Fractional Odds to evaluate the winnings of any group of Play3 or Play4 games. If you do, just remember that you mustn t mix the odds on any single line of the Winnings Calculator. In other words, use only one type of odd for each of the three or four games 18

19 you re evaluating at any given time. If you do happen to put two types of odd on the same line, Merlin will rightly zero-out the calculation until you remove one of them. In the Winnings Calculator each of the four data input lines is numbered. Take the three or four games group you wish to evaluate for winnings and enter on a separate line in the Winnings Calculator the Home, Draw or Away odds shown on the bookmaker s fixed odds coupon for Merlin s forecast for each single game in the group. Start at line 1 and enter the odds offered on the coupon for the result that Merlin has forecast for the first game. Then move to lines 2 and 3 and do the same for the second and third games, respectively. Enter your Stake per line into the Cash Staked Per Line cell. You may enter any stake value you wish, either whole numbers or decimals or a combination of the two i.e. 1, 2, 5, etc., or.25,.50 etc., or 1.50, 2.75, etc. But DO NOT enter a currency symbol such as or $. Only when you ve completed at least three lines of odds and entered your stake amount, will the Winnings Calculator display a winnings amount in the Play3 Winning Line Return cell. The winnings amount for Play4 will only display when you also complete the odds for line 4 in the Winnings Calculator. In both cases the winnings shown are calculated on an Accumulator basis, as described earlier. The small analysis table located directly above the Winnings Calculator input panel shows you, from left to right the total lines Merlin is currently recommending as a bet on the basis that all your input data are part correct. Remember, if you intend to allow for margins of error in your input data you will be betting more lines than are shown here. Your total stake on the basis that all your input data are part correct. This will be higher if you allow for error in your input data. Your total profit on the basis that all your input data are part correct. This will be lower if you allow for error in your input data. The Winnings Calculator makes it easy for you to quickly assess the profitability arising from different combinations of odds. This potent tool is your friend. Make sure you always use it to identify the groups of three games whose odds taken together offer you the best return for your stake. Remember! Part correct data plus the most preferential combination of odds equals money in your pocket every time. Summary Merlin handles both three and four match selections. When it comes to three match selections, if all your input data are part correct then Merlin is absolutely certain to give you the winning line. In those circumstances, IT CANNOT FAIL. 19

20 With four match selections, you may decide to evaluate on a 2 Homes, 2 Aways or 2 Draws basis. With a little experience you ll get this right a lot of the time. When you do, and when all your overlapped input data are partcorrect, Merlin will again always give you the winning line WITHOUT FAIL. Should you decide to use all three blocks together and all your overlapped input data are part correct, Merlin will once again ALWAYS give you the winning line. But all your input data lines will not always be part correct. It therefore follows that correctly forecasting a group of matches is influenced by: The size of the entry you re able to afford. If small, you depend upon all part correct data. Your ambition. If big enough, you can certainly get a correct result by allowing for error. With both three and four match selections, Merlin can allow for a margin of error of your own choice. If you re ever uncertain as to the accuracy of your input data, then this is the way to go. Your coupon entry will be larger but also safer. But within the broad outline of these factors there are others that impinge significantly. You have to gain experience using Merlin. It s not something you will arrive at within a week. But there is no work involved for you. Merlin does the hard labour. Yet you must familiarise yourself with Merlin and you will only do that by taking the time to practice with it until you arrive at the stage where using Merlin becomes second-nature to you. A bit like learning to drive. At that time you will be on the road to substantial financial returns from Fixed Odds football betting. Conclusion Of course you cannot expect to win every time. Accept the fact that some weeks you will get it totally wrong. This is, after all, part and parcel of betting. The only way you will never lose is by not betting in the first place. But then, you d never win anything either. What you are seeking to achieve is a consistent winning run that generates a healthy profit for you year-on-year. Bear in mind that the ratio of teams that win to those that lose or draw never changes significantly, year-in and year-out. On average, one out of every two matches will result in a home win. Slightly over one match in four will result in an away win whilst slightly less than one match in four will result in a draw. These averages have remained more-or-less constant since the beginning of organised football. Remember, always play safe and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Using Merlin and following the foregoing selection steps to find your part correct input data means you can win with a consistency that far outstrips the normal. However, it pays to act with discretion. People who win too much too 20

21 often do get barred from placing bets. You would do well to avoid putting yourself in that self-defeating position. One way around the problem is to avoid placing too many bets too frequently with any one bookmaker. To consistently forecast a group of football matches correctly, at well under the mathematical odds, is a considerable achievement. Make no mistake about it, Merlin can do that. When it comes to selecting your part correct input data, luck or chance should play as small a part as possible. Discipline yourself to always put your best effort into this aspect. It will be time and effort well spent. Remember, give Merlin part correct data and you must succeed. The rewards are there for the taking and with Merlin s help they re yours. I wish you every success. Copyright 2006 Donald Hunting MASC (Dip). All Rights Reserved. 21