EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. brief 43 Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: Clive James Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors

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1 i s a a a International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Ap p l i c a t i o n s EXECUTIVE SUMMARY brief 43 Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011 By Clive James Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors Dedicated by the author to the 1 billion poor and hungry people, and their survival Total Hectares Industrial Developing Global Area of Biotech Crops Million Hectares ( ) 29 Biotech Crop Countries A record 16.7 million farmers, in 29 countries, planted 160 million hectares (395 million acres) in 2011, a sustained increase of 8% or 12 million hectares (30 million acres) over Source: Clive James, No

2 author s note: Global totals of millions of hectares planted with biotech crops have been rounded off to the nearest million and similarly, subtotals to the nearest 100,000 hectares, using both < and > characters; hence in some cases this leads to insignificant approximations, and there may be minor variances in some figures, totals, and percentage estimates that do not always add up exactly to 100% because of rounding off. It is also important to note that countries in the Southern Hemisphere plant their crops in the last quarter of the calendar year. The biotech crop areas reported in this publication are planted, not necessarily harvested hectarage in the year stated. Thus, for example, the 2011 information for Argentina, Brazil, Australia, South Africa, and Uruguay is hectares usually planted in the last quarter of 2011 and harvested in the first quarter of 2012 with some countries like the Philippines having more than one season per year. Thus, for countries of the Southern hemisphere, such as Brazil, Argentina and South Africa the estimates are projections, and thus are always subject to change due to weather, which may increase or decrease actual planted hectares before the end of the planting season when this Brief has to go to press. For Brazil, the winter maize crop (safrinha) planted in the last week of December 2011 and more intensively through January and February 2012 is classified as a 2011 crop in this Brief consistent with a policy which uses the first date of planting to determine the crop year. Details of the references listed in the Executive Summary are found in the full Brief 43.

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY brief 43 Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011 By Clive James Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors Dedicated by the author to the 1 billion poor and hungry people, and their survival

4 Co-sponsors: Fondazione Bussolera-Branca, Italy Ibercaja, Spain ISAAA ISAAA gratefully acknowledges grants from Fondazione Bussolera-Branca and Ibercaja to support the preparation of this Brief and its free distribution to developing countries. The objective is to provide information and knowledge to the scientific community and society on biotech/gm crops to facilitate a more informed and transparent discussion regarding their potential role in contributing to global food, feed, fiber and fuel security, and a more sustainable agriculture. The author, not the co-sponsors, takes full responsibility for the views expressed in this publication and for any errors of omission or misinterpretation. Published by: The International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA). Copyright: ISAAA All rights reserved. Whereas ISAAA encourages the global sharing of information in Brief 43, no part of this publication maybe reproduced in any form or by any means, electronically, mechanically, by photocopying, recording or otherwise without the permission of the copyright owners. Reproduction of this publication, or parts thereof, for educational and non-commercial purposes is encouraged with due acknowledgment, subsequent to permission being granted by ISAAA. Citation: James, Clive Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: ISAAA Brief No. 43. ISAAA: Ithaca, NY. isbn: Publication Orders and Price: Please contact the ISAAA SEAsiaCenter to purchase a hard copy of the full version of Brief 43, including the Executive Summary and the Highlights at The publication is available free of charge to eligible nationals of developing countries. ISAAA SEAsiaCenter c/o IRRI DAPO Box 7777 Metro Manila, Philippines Info on ISAAA: For information about ISAAA, please contact the Center nearest you: ISAAA AmeriCenter ISAAA AfriCenter ISAAA SEAsiaCenter 105 Leland Lab PO Box 70, ILRI Campus c/o IRRI Cornell University Old Naivasha Road DAPO Box 7777 Ithaca NY 14853, U.S.A. Uthiru, Nairobi Metro Manila Kenya Philippines Electronically: or to info@isaaa.org For Executive Summaries of all ISAAA Briefs, please visit ii

5 Executive Summary Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011 Table of Contents Page Number Introduction Biotech crops reached 160 million hectares, up 12 million hectares on 8% growth, from 2010, as the global population reached a historical milestone of 7 billion on 31 October 2011 Biotech crops, fastest adopted crop technology Millions of farmers globally elect to adopt biotech crops due to the benefits they offer Top ten countries each grew more than 1 million hectares of biotech crops A total of 16.7 million farmers grew biotech crops in 2011, up 1.3 million from 2010 notably, 15 million or 90% were small resource-poor farmers from developing countries Developing countries grew close to 50% of global biotech crops Stacked traits occupy ~25% of the global 160 million hectares The 5 lead biotech developing countries are China, India, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa they grew 44% of global biotech crops, and have 40% of world population Brazil, the engine of biotech crop growth The US is the lead producer of biotech crops with 69.0 million hectares, (43% of global) Bt cotton has transformed cotton production in India In China, seven million small farmers benefit from 3.9 million hectares of Bt cotton Mexico seeks self-sufficiency with biotech cotton; biotech maize has potential to partially offset growing maize imports Progress in Africa with three countries planting, and another three conducting field trials Argentina and Canada, ranked 3rd and 5th in the world, continue to post gains Australia planted its largest ever hectarage of cotton of which 99.5% was biotech EU plants record 114,490 hectares of Bt maize, up 26% or 23,297 hectares from 2010 A change of heart in Europe a strongly-worded open letter from 41 Swedish scientists in support of biotech/gm crops a petition endorsed by UK scientists; Member of African Biotechnology Stakeholders Forum criticizes EU of hypocrisy and arrogance in relation to GM crops Contribution of biotech crops to Food Security Adoption by crop biotech soybean remains the dominant crop Adoption by trait herbicide tolerance remains the dominant trait Need for appropriate, science-based and cost/time-effective regulatory systems that are responsible, rigorous and yet not onerous, requiring only modest resources that are within the means of most developing countries iii

6 Global value of the biotech seed market alone was US$13.2 billion in 2011 with commercial biotech grain from maize, soybean and cotton valued at ~US$160 billion, or more for 2011 Status of Approved Events for Biotech Crops THE FUTURE CHALLENGES Population, Poverty and Hunger Prices of Commodities The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) Golden Rice, the road to commercialization Contribution of biotech crops to Sustainability Contributing to food, feed and fiber security and self sufficiency, including more affordable food, by increasing productivity and economic benefits sustainably at the farmer level Conserving biodiversity, biotech crops are a land saving technology Contributing to the alleviation of poverty and hunger Reducing agriculture s environmental footprint Helping mitigate climate change and reducing greenhouse gases Climate change and crop production Contribution of biotech crops to constraints associated with climate change Increasing support from environmentalists for biotech crops OPPORTUNITIES Biotech Cotton Status, Unmet Needs and Future Prospects A biotech potato resistant to late blight a unique opportunity for the EU to take the global lead in the development of an innovative technology and its timely deregulation Public-Private Sector Partnerships and the three streams of technology products: private, publicprivate, and public Future Prospects 2012 to 2015 Similarities between the Global Economic Crisis and the Global Food Crisis CLOSING COMMENTS iv

7 Executive Summary Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011 By Clive James, Founder and Chair of ISAAA Introduction This Executive Summary focuses on the 2011 biotech crop highlights, which are presented and discussed in detail in ISAAA Brief 43, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: Biotech crops reached 160 million hectares, up 12 million hectares on 8% growth, from 2010, as the global population reached a historical milestone of 7 billion on 31 October was the 16th year of commercialization of biotech crops, , when growth continued after a remarkable 15 consecutive years of increases; a double-digit increase of 12 million hectares, at a growth rate of 8%, reaching a record 160 million hectares. Biotech crops, fastest adopted crop technology A 94-fold increase in hectarage from 1.7 million hectares in 1996 to 160 million hectares in 2011 makes biotech crops the fastest adopted crop technology in the history of modern agriculture. Millions of farmers globally elect to adopt biotech crops due to the benefits they offer The most compelling and credible testimony to biotech crops is that during the 16 year period 1996 to 2011, millions of farmers in 29 countries worldwide, elected to make more than 100 million independent decisions to plant and replant an accumulated hectarage of more than 1.25 billion hectares an area 25% larger than the total land mass of the US or China there is one principal and overwhelming reason that underpins the trust and confidence of risk-averse farmers in biotechnology biotech crops deliver substantial, and sustainable, socio-economic and environmental benefits. The 2011 study conducted in Europe confirmed that biotech crops are safe as animal feed. Top ten countries each grew more than 1 million hectares of biotech crops Of the 29 countries planting biotech crops in 2011, it is noteworthy that 19 were developing and 10 were industrial countries (see Table 1 and Figure 1). The top 10 countries each grew more than 1 million hectares providing a broad-based worldwide foundation for diversified growth in the future; in fact, the top nine each grew more than 2 million hectares. More than half the world s population, 60% or ~4 billion people, live in the 29 countries planting biotech crops. 1

8 Table 1. Global Area of Biotech Crops in 2011: by Country (Million Hectares)** Rank Country Area (million hectares) Biotech Crops *1 * *2 *3 *4 *5 *6 *7 *8 * * USA* Brazil* Argentina* India* Canada* China* Paraguay* Pakistan * South Africa* Uruguay* Bolivia* Australia* Philippines* Myanmar* Burkina Faso* Mexico* Spain* Colombia Chile Honduras Portugal Czech Republic Poland Egypt Slovakia Romania Sweden Costa Rica Germany <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 Maize, soybean, cotton, canola, sugarbeet, alfalfa, papaya, squash Soybean, maize, cotton Soybean, maize, cotton Cotton Canola, maize, soybean, sugarbeet Cotton, papaya, poplar, tomato, sweet pepper Soybean Cotton Maize, soybean, cotton Soybean, maize Soybean Cotton, canola Maize Cotton Cotton Cotton, soybean Maize Cotton Maize, soybean, canola Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Potato Cotton, soybean Potato Total * 17 biotech mega-countries growing 50,000 hectares, or more, of biotech crops ** Rounded off to the nearest hundred thousand Source: Clive James,

9 Biotech Crop Countries and Mega-Countries*, 2011 #21 Portugal <0.05 Million Has. Maize #17 Spain* 0.1 Million Has. Maize #29 Germany <0.05 Million Has. Potato #27 Sweden <0.05 Million Has. Potato #22 Czech Republic <0.05 Million Has. Maize #23 Poland <0.05 Million Has. Maize #25 Slovakia <0.05 Million Has. Maize #5 Canada* 10.4 Million Has. Canola, Maize, Soybean, Sugarbeet #1 USA* 69.0 Million Has. Maize, Soybean, Cotton, Canola, Sugarbeet, Alfalfa, Papaya, Squash #16 Mexico* 0.2 Million Has. Cotton, Soybean #20 Honduras <0.05 Million Has. Maize #26 Romania <0.05 Million Has. Maize #6 China* 3.9 Million Has. Cotton, Papaya, Poplar, Tomato, Sweet Pepper #14 Myanmar* 0.3 Million Has. Cotton #13 Philippines* 0.6 Million Has. Maize #4 India* 10.6 Million Has. Cotton #28 Costa Rica <0.05 Million Has. Cotton, Soybean #12 Australia* 0.7 Million Has. Cotton, Canola #18 Colombia <0.05 Million Has. Cotton #8 Pakistan* 2.6 Million Has. Cotton #11 Bolivia* 0.9 Million Has. Soybean #24 Egypt <0.05 Million Has. Maize #7 Paraguay* 2.8 Million Has. Soybean #19 Chile <0.05 Million Has. Maize, Soybean, Canola #3 Argentina* 23.7 Million Has. Soybean, Maize, Cotton #10 Uruguay* 1.3 Million Has. Soybean, Maize #2 Brazil* 30.3 Million Has. Soybean, Maize, Cotton #9 South Africa* 2.3 Million Has. Maize, Soybean, Cotton #15 Burkina Faso* 0.3 Million Has. Cotton * 17 biotech mega-countries growing 50,000 hectares, or more, of biotech crops. Source: Clive James, Figure 1. Global Map of Biotech Crop Countries and Mega-Countries in

10 A total of 16.7 million farmers grew biotech crops in 2011, up 1.3 million from 2010 notably, 15 million or 90% were small resource-poor farmers from developing countries In 2011, a record 16.7 million farmers, up 1.3 million or 8% from 2010, grew biotech crops notably, over 90%, or 15 million, were small resource-poor farmers in developing countries. Farmers are the masters of risk aversion and in 2011, 7 million small farmers in China and another 7 million small farmers in India, collectively planted a record 14.5 million hectares of biotech crops. Bt cotton increased the income of farmers significantly by up to US$250 per hectare and also halved the number of insecticide sprays, thus reducing farmer exposure to pesticides. Developing countries grew close to 50% of global biotech crops Developing countries grew close to 50% (49.875%) of global biotech crops in 2011 and for the first time are expected to exceed industrial countries hectarage in 2012; this is contrary to the prediction of critics who, prior to the commercialization of the technology in 1996, prematurely declared that biotech crops were only for industrial countries and would never be accepted and adopted by developing countries. In 2011, the growth rate for biotech crops was twice as fast and twice as large in developing countries, at 11% or 8.2 million hectares, versus 5% or 3.8 million hectares in industrial countries. During the period cummulative economic benefits were the same for developing and developed countries (US$39 billion). For 2010 alone, economic benefits for developing countries were higher at US$7.7 billion compared with US$6.3 billion for developed countries. Stacked traits occupied ~25% of the global 160 million hectares Stacked traits are an important feature of biotech crops 12 countries planted biotech crops with two or more traits in 2011, and encouragingly 9 were developing countries 42.2 million hectares or 26% of the 160 million hectares were stacked in 2011, up from 32.2 million hectares or 22% of the 148 million hectares in The 5 lead biotech developing countries are China, India, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa they grew 44% of global biotech crops, and have ~40% of world population The five lead developing countries in biotech crops are China and India in Asia, Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, and South Africa on the continent of Africa, collectively grew 71.4 million hectares (44% of global) and together represent ~40% of the global population of 7 billion, which could reach 10.1 billion by Remarkably, Africa alone could escalate from 1 billion today (~15% of global) to a possible high of 3.6 billion (~35% of global) by the end of this century in 2100 global food security, exacerbated by high and unaffordable food prices, is a formidable challenge to which biotech crops can contribute but are not a panacea. Brazil, the engine of biotech crop growth Brazil ranks second only to the USA in biotech crop hectarage in the world, with 30.3 million hectares, and is emerging as a global leader in biotech crops. For the third consecutive year, Brazil was the engine 4

11 of growth globally in 2011, increasing its hectarage of biotech crops more than any other country in the world a record 4.9 million hectare increase, equivalent to an impressive year-over-year increase of 20%. Brazil grows 19% of the global hectarage of 160 million hectares and is consolidating its position by consistently closing the gap with the US. A fast track approval system allowed Brazil to approve 8 events in 2010, and as of 15 October 2011, an additional 6 events were approved in Brazil approved the first stacked soybean with insect resistance and herbicide tolerance for commercialization in Notably, EMBRAPA, a public sector institution, with an annual budget of ~US$1 billion, gained approval to commercialize a home-grown biotech virus resistant bean, (rice and beans are the staples of Latin America) developed entirely with its own resources, thus demonstrating its impressive technical capacity to develop, deliver and approve a new state-of-the art biotech crop. The US is the lead producer of biotech crops with 69.0 million hectares (43% of global) The US continued to be the lead producer of biotech crops globally with 69.0 million hectares, (an average adoption rate of ~90% across its principal biotech crops) with particularly strong growth in maize and cotton in 2011 and the resumption of the planting of RR alfalfa alfalfa is the fourth largest hectarage crop in the US (~8 million hectares) after maize, soybean and wheat; RR alfalfa currently occupies ~200,000 hectares and strong farmer-demand augers well for the future. Adoption could reach as high as 35% to 50% by around 2015 and higher thereafter. RR sugarbeet, the fastest adopted biotech crop, continues to have a 95% adoption equivalent to ~475,000 hectares. Resistance to corn rootworm was reported in the US and collaborative studies to assess the event are underway. It is timely, to again stress that adherence to good farming practices including rotations and resistance management, are a must for biotech crops as they are for conventional crops. Finally, and importantly, from a regulatory viewpoint, virus resistant papaya from the US was approved for consumption as a fresh fruit/food in Japan effective 1 December Bt cotton has transformed cotton production in India In 2011, India celebrated a decade of successful cultivation of Bt cotton, which has achieved phenomenal success in transforming the cotton crop into the most productive and profitable crop in the country. India s Bt cottons are unique in that they are hybrids and not varieties, as used by all other countries planting Bt cotton. In 2011, plantings of Bt cotton in India surpassed the historical milestone of 10 million hectares (10.6) for the first time, and occupied 88% of the record 12.1 million hectare cotton crop. The principal beneficiaries were 7 million farmers growing, on average, 1.5 hectares of cotton. Historically, the increase from 50,000 hectares of Bt cotton in 2002, (when Bt cotton was first commercialized) to 10.6 million hectares in 2011 represents an unprecedented 212-fold increase in 10 years. India enhanced farm income from Bt cotton by US$9.4 billion in the period 2002 to 2010 and US$2.5 billion in 2010 alone (Brookes and Barfoot, 2012, Forthcoming) 1. Thus, Bt cotton has transformed cotton production in India by increasing yield substantially, decreasing insecticide applications by ~50%, and through welfare benefits, contributed to the alleviation of poverty of 7 million small resource-poor farmers and their families in 2011 alone. Approval of Bt brinjal (eggplant) is pending in India whilst the Philippines is planning for an approval in 1 Brookes, G. and Barfoot, P Forthcoming. GM Crops: Global socio-economic and environmental impacts , PG Economics Ltd, Dorchester, UK. 5

12 2012/13 with a view to benefiting from the substantial reductions in pesticide applied to this very pestprone but popular vegetable, referred to as the queen of the vegetables in India. In China, seven million small farmers benefit from 3.9 million hectares of Bt cotton In China, 7 million small resource-poor farmers (average of ~0.5 hectare of cotton) grew a record 3.9 million hectares of Bt cotton at the highest adoption rate to-date of 71.5%. Government has reconfirmed the national importance of biotech crops, to be developed under strict biosafety standards. Biotech phytase maize and Bt rice, approved for biosafety in 2009, are undergoing routine field testing. Maize has been accorded priority for commercialization to meet a rapidly growing demand for domestically produced biotech maize as an animal feed in response to a demand for more meat. Higher productivity from domestic biotech maize could serve to offset increasing imports of maize. The expected commercial approval of biotech Golden Rice in the Philippines in 2013/14 will be of significance to China, and also to Vietnam and Bangladesh which are evaluating the product with a view to deployment. Mexico seeks self sufficiency with biotech cotton; biotech maize has the potential to partially offset growing maize imports In 2011, Mexico planted 161,500 hectares of biotech cotton, equivalent to an adoption rate of 87% and 14,000 hectares of biotech RR soybean for a country total of 175,500 hectares, compared to 71,000 hectares in 2010; this 146% increase is an impressive performance by any standard. The aim is selfsufficiency in cotton during the next few years. Following productive discussions between the private, social and public sectors to develop a best practices regulatory system that would facilitate predictable access to biotech cotton for farmers in Mexico, approval has been granted to commercialize up to ~340,000 hectares of specific biotech cotton (Bollgard II/Flex and RR Flex) to be planted annually in specific northern states of Mexico. The most significant recent development was the planting of the first biotech maize trials in the country in 2009 and continued in 2010/11. Mexico grows over 7 million hectares of maize but imports about 10 million tons per annum at a foreign exchange cost of US$2.5 billion, which could be partially offset with higher yielding home-grown biotech maize hybrid cultivated in Mexico s northern states. Mexico is estimated to have enhanced farm income from biotech cotton and soybean by US$121 million in the period 1996 to 2010 and the benefits for 2010 alone are US$19 million; the potential for the future is substantial (Brookes and Barfoot, 2012, Forthcoming). Progress in Africa with three countries planting, and another three conducting field trials Africa made steady progress in 2011 in planting, regulatory and research activities on biotech crops. The three countries already commercializing biotech crops (South Africa, Burkina Faso and Egypt), together planted a record 2.5 million hectares. An additional three countries (Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda), conducted field trials, with others like Malawi have already approved pending trials. Trials focusing on Africa s pro-poor priority staple crops including maize, cassava, banana and sweetpotato are making good progress. Examples include drought tolerant maize through the WEMA Water Efficient Maize for Africa project, with on-going second season trials in three countries, Kenya, South Africa and Uganda. 6

13 Argentina and Canada, ranked 3rd and 5th in the world, continue to post gains Argentina ranked 3rd, and Canada ranked 5th, retained their world rankings and both posted record hectarage of biotech crops at 23.7 million hectares and 10.4 million hectares, respectively. The largest gain in Argentina was biotech maize increasing by ~900,000 hectares, and in Canada herbicide tolerant canola increased by ~1.6 million hectares after Canada reported its largest ever canola crop. Australia planted its largest ever hectarage of cotton of which 99.5% was biotech Following an unprecedented drought for three years and then floods, Australia planted its largest ever hectarage of cotton of which 99.5% was biotech, equivalent to 597,000 hectares of which 95% was the stacked trait for insect resistance and herbicide tolerance. In addition, Australia grew ~140,000 hectares of herbicide tolerant canola for a total of over ~700,000 hectares for the two biotech crops cotton and canola. There is also significant R & D effort in Australia on biotech wheat and sugarcane. EU plants record 114,490 hectares of Bt maize, up 26% or 23,297 hectares from 2010 Six EU countries (Spain, Portugal, Czechia, Poland, Slovakia and Romania) planted a record 114,490 hectares of biotech Bt maize, a substantial 26% or 23,297 hectares higher than 2010, with Spain growing 85% of the total in the EU with a record adoption rate of 28%. An additional two countries (Sweden and Germany) planted a token 17 hectares of the new biotech quality starch potato named Amflora for seed production for a total of 114,507 hectares of biotech crops planted in the EU. Bt maize hectarage increased in the three largest Bt maize countries: Spain, Portugal and Czechia, remained the same in Poland, and decreased in Romania and Slovakia. The marginal decreases in Bt maize in Romania and Slovakia, both growing less than 1,000 hectares, was associated with several factors, including disincentives for some farmers due to bureaucratic and onerous reporting of intended plantings of Bt maize. The planned release in 2014, subject to approval, of a new biotech potato named Fortuna resistant to late blight, (the most important disease of potatoes), is potentially an important product, that can meet EU policy and environmental needs to make potato production more sustainable by reducing heavy fungicide applications and decreasing production losses estimated at up to US$1.5 billion annually in the EU alone, and US$7.5 billon worldwide. A change of heart in Europe a strongly-worded open letter from 41 Swedish scientists in support of biotech/gm crops a petition endorsed by UK scientists; Member of African Biotechnology Stakeholders Forum criticizes EU of hypocrisy and arrogance in relation to GM crops In October 2011, 41 leading Swedish biological scientists, in a strongly-worded open letter to politicians and environmentalists, spoke-out about the need to revise European legislation to allow society to benefit from GM crops using science-based assessments of the technology. A contingent of scientists from the United Kingdom endorsed the Swedish petition. Dr. Felix M mboyi, A Kenyan national and a member of the African Biotechnology Stakeholders Forum, accused the European Union of hypocrisy and arrogance and called for development bodies within Europe to let African farmers make full use of GM crops to boost yields and feed a world population expected to reach 7 billion by 7

14 the end of the year. Dr. M mboyi, stated that The affluent west has the luxury of choice in the type of technology they use to grow food crops, yet their influence and sensitivities are denying many in the developing world access to such technologies which could lead to a more plentiful supply of food. This kind of hypocrisy and arrogance comes with the luxury of a full stomach. In 2011, the Kenyan government published its implementing regulations for environmental release as outlined in the Biosafety Act of 2009, allowing commercial cultivation of GM crops, becoming the fourth African country to explicitly legalize growing of GM crops. France s Council of State, the nation s highest administrative court of appeal, upheld the September European Court of Justice ruling which found that France s 2008 prohibition of Monsanto MON810 variety was out of line on procedural grounds. The Council ruled that France s agriculture minister has not provided the proof (that can) present a major risk to human or animal health to the environment. A University of Reading study in 2011 on the Impacts of the EU regulatory constraints of transgenic crops on farm income, revealed that if the areas of transgenic maize, cotton, soya, oilseed rape and sugarbeet were to be grown where there is agronomic need or benefit, then farmer margins would increase by between 443 (US$575) and 929 million (US$1.2 billion) per year. It was also noted that this margin of revenue foregone is likely to increase with the current level of approval and growth remains low, as new transgenic events come to market and are rapidly taken up by farmers in other parts of the world. Contribution of biotech crops to Food Security From 1996 to 2010, this was achieved by: increasing crop production and value by US$78 billion; providing a better environment, by saving 443 million kg a.i. of pesticides; in 2010 alone reducing CO 2 emissions by 19 billion kg, equivalent to taking ~9 million cars off the road; conserving biodiversity by saving 91 million hectares of land; and helped alleviate poverty by helping 15.0 million small farmers who are some of the poorest people in the world (Brookes and Barfoot, 2012, Forthcoming). Adoption by crop biotech soybean remains the dominant crop Biotech soybean continued to be the principal biotech crop in 2011, occupying 75.4 million hectares or 47% of global biotech area, followed by biotech maize (51.00 million hectares at 32%), biotech cotton (24.7 million hectares at 15%) and biotech canola (8.2 million hectares at 5%) of the global biotech crop area. Adoption by trait herbicide tolerance remains the dominant trait From the genesis of commercialization in 1996 to 2011, herbicide tolerance has consistently been the dominant trait. In 2011, herbicide tolerance deployed in soybean, maize, canola, cotton, sugarbeet and alfalfa, occupied 59% or 93.9 million hectares of the global biotech area of 160 million hectares. In 2011, the stacked double and triple traits occupied a larger area (42.2 million hectares, or 26% of global biotech crop area) than insect resistant varieties (23.9 million hectares) at 15%. The stacked genes were the fastest growing trait group between 2010 and 2011 at 31% growth, compared with 5% for herbicide 8

15 tolerance and 10% for insect resistance, this reflects farmer preference for stacked traits. Stacked traits are an increasingly important feature of biotech crops 12 countries planted biotech crops with stacked traits in 2011, 9 were developing countries. Need for appropriate, science-based and cost/time-effective regulatory systems that are responsible, and rigorous and yet not onerous, requiring only modest resources that are within the means of most developing countries There is an urgent need for appropriate, science-based and cost/time-effective regulatory systems that are responsible, rigorous but not onerous, for small and poor developing countries. Lack of appropriate regulation is the major constraint that denies poor countries timely access to biotech crops which can contribute, but are not a panacea, to urgent food security needs, in countries such as those in the Horn of Africa where up to 10 million were at risk from famine triggered by drought in 2011, and exacerbated by many other factors. Global value of the biotech seed market alone was US$13.2 billion in 2011 with commercial biotech maize, soybean grain and cotton valued at ~US$160 billion, or more for 2011 Global value of biotech seed alone was US$13.2 billion in 2011, with the end product of commercial grain from biotech maize, soybean grain and cotton valued at ~US$160 billion or more per year. A 2011 study estimated that the cost of discovery, development and authorization of a new biotech crop/trait is ~US$135 million. In 2011, the global market value of biotech crops, estimated by Cropnosis, was US$13.2 billion, (up from US$11.7 billion in 2010); this represents 22% of the US$59.6 billion global crop protection market in 2011, and 36% of the US$37 billion commercial seed market. The estimated global farm-gate revenues of the harvested commercial end product, (the biotech grain and other harvested products) is much greater than the value of the biotech seed alone (US$13.2 billion) extrapolating from 2008 data, biotech crop harvested products would be valued at approximately US$160 billion globally in 2010, and projected to increase at up to 10-15% annually. Status of Approved Events for Biotech Crops While 29 countries planted commercialized biotech crops in 2010, an additional 31 countries, totaling 60 have granted regulatory approvals for biotech crops for import for food and feed use and for release into the environment since Turkey started approving biotech crops for import into the country in A total of 1,045 approvals have been granted for 196 events for 25 crops. Thus, biotech crops are accepted for import for food and feed use and for release into the environment in 60 countries, including major food importing countries like Japan, which do not plant biotech crops. Of the 60 countries that have granted approvals for biotech crops, USA tops the list followed by Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, New Zealand, the European Union, and Taiwan. Maize has the most events approved (65) followed by cotton (39), canola (15), potato and soybean (14 each). The event that has received regulatory approval in most countries is herbicide tolerant soybean event GTS-40 9

16 -3-2 with 25 approvals (EU=27 counted as 1 approval only), followed by insect resistant maize MON810 with 23 approvals, herbicide tolerant maize NK603 with 22 approvals each, and insect resistant cotton (MON1445) with 14 approvals worldwide. THE FUTURE On 31 October 2011, the UN declared that the world had reached the important historical milestone of 7 billion living persons, only twelve years after Adnan Nevic was declared to be the 6th billionth living person born on 31 October The world needs at least 70% more food by For the developing countries, where 2.5 billion small resource-poor farmers survive, (representing some of the poorest people in the world), food production needs to be doubled by Current investments in agriculture in developing countries are woefully inadequate. Current expenditures on agriculture in the developing countries is ~US$142 billion per annum and it is estimated that an additional US$57 billion per year, will be required annually for a total of US$209 billion per year in 2009 dollars from now until Given that the history of the past is one of the essential steps to consider for predicting the future, the current status of biotech crops, and progress to-date during the last 16 years since biotech crops were first commercialized in1996, are reviewed as well as their potential contribution to feeding the world in the future, within the context of the Challenges and Opportunities for biotech crops globally. CHALLENGES The major goal of ISAAA is to alleviate poverty and hunger, which pervasively pollutes the lives of 1 billion suffering people, a humanitarian condition that is morally unacceptable. Today, poverty is mainly a rural phenomenon, however, this will change in the future as urbanization continues to increase from its current level of just over half the world s population. In 2011, approximately half of the world s poor were small resource-poor farmers, whilst another 20% were the rural landless who are completely dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Thus, 70% of the world s poor are dependent on agriculture some view this as a problem, however it should be viewed as an opportunity, given the enormous potential of both conventional and the new biotechnology applications to make a significant contribution to the alleviation of poverty and hunger and to doubling food, feed and fiber production by Population, Poverty and Hunger The 31st of October 2011 was the world s birthday, when the 7th billion living person was born. The most recent study by the Population Division of the United Nations (UN) has increased its projection of global population from 9.2 to 9.3 billion for More importantly and unlike previous estimates which predicted plateauing in 2050, continuing global growth is now projected until the end of this century to 2 United Nations, 2011 World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision ( 10

17 reach 10.1 billion people in Population growth in Africa, already struggling with food production, will continue to be high and could increase from the current 1 billion representing 15% of global to an extraordinary high of 3.6 billion, representing ~35% of global by High fertility African countries represent unprecedented challenges for Africa, where even today, food-deficit countries in the horn of Africa, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti, have over 10 million at risk from famine, principally associated with their oldest and most important enemy a devastating drought. The positive aspect is that a well integrated food security initiative, in which both conventional and crop biotechnology applications feature in a broad multiple thrust strategy (involving policy, population stabilization, food waste reduction and distribution) can make a significant contribution to the formidable task of feeding 10.1 billion people in 2100, of which more than one-third will be in Africa. Prices of Commodities During the food crisis of mid 2008, when prices of food commodities reached an all time peak, hundreds of millions of poor people, who spend more than 70% to 80% of their income on food suffered badly. Food riots were reported in up to 30 countries, two governments fell and exports of commodity crops were banned by many grain exporting countries in order to provide a secure domestic supply. In early 2011, a food crisis similar to 2008 was witnessed with the food index of the FAO reaching peaks higher than On the political front, President Sarkozy of France and the group of 20 has assigned top priority to controlling volatility in the price of food, and the philanthropist Bill Gates has focused more funding on agriculture in the developing countries. Observers have opined that the era of cheap food is over with demand for feed stocks exacerbated by increased consumption of meat in Asia, where the creation of a new wealthier middle class is resulting in more demand for both food crops and meat. The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) Poverty and hunger are inextricably linked and today afflict approximately 1 billion people in the world, mainly in the developing counties. However, during the current economic crisis, even in the US, the most advanced and powerful economy in the world, poverty in 2010 was estimated at 15.1% of the population (the highest since 1993) equivalent to 46.2 million unemployed, the highest on record. Ten years ago, in 2001, global society made a pledge, The Millennium Development Goal (MDG), to cut poverty by 50% by 2015, with 1990 as the starting benchmark. In 1990, poverty in the developing countries was 46% (World Bank estimate), and by 2005 had decreased to 27% thus, 23% seems feasible by 2015, four years from now. However, many observers have cautioned that success in halving the percentage of poor people in the developing world should not be attributed to the UN MDG initiative alone, but principally to China for decreasing its poverty rate from 60% in 1990 to 16% in 2005 an impressive 72% reduction. Golden Rice, the Road to Commercialization After more than a decade, Golden Rice, a biotech genetically-modified rice that contains enhanced levels of beta carotene, is advancing towards the completion of its regulatory requirements in the Philippines and Bangladesh. In the Philippines, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) has successfully bred the Golden Rice traits into IR64 and other Asian mega varieties including the variety PSBRc82 in the 11

18 Philippines, and BRRI dhan 29, a Bangladesh variety. In 2010, IRRI completed one season of confined field tests of IR64-GR and in 2011, the Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice) conducted confined field test of PSBRc82 with the Golden Rice traits. IRRI scientists will be sharing the Bangladeshi varieties with the GR traits for confined field testing at the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI). Current field testing and regulatory compliance experiments related to safety for Golden Rice regulatory dossiers are planned for submission in 2013 to the Philippine authorities and in 2015 to Bangladesh. Given that the GR trait is present in inbred lines, the GR varieties can be saved for replanting and will have a similar cost as current conventional varieties. Golden Rice is expected to be first released in the Philippines in 2013/14. Contribution of biotech crops to Sustainability Biotech crops are contributing to sustainability in the following five ways: Contributing to food, feed and fiber security and self sufficiency, including more affordable food, by increasing productivity and economic benefits sustainably at the farmer level Economic gains at the farm level of ~US$78 billion were generated globally by biotech crops during the fifteen year period 1996 to 2010, of which 40% were due to reduced production costs (less ploughing, fewer pesticide sprays and less labor) and 60% due to substantial yield gains of 276 million tons. The corresponding figures for 2010 alone was 76% of the total gain due to increased yield (equivalent to 44.1 million tons), and 24% due to lower cost of production (Brookes and Barfoot, 2012, Forthcoming). Conserving biodiversity, biotech crops are a land saving technology Biotech crops are a land-saving technology, capable of higher productivity on the current 1.5 billion hectares of arable land, and thereby can help preclude deforestation and protect biodiversity in forests and in other in-situ biodiversity sanctuaries. Approximately 13 million hectares of biodiversity rich tropical forests, are lost in developing countries annually. If the 276 million tons of additional food, feed and fiber produced by biotech crops during the period 1996 to 2010 had not been produced by biotech crops, an additional 91 million hectares (Brookes and Barfoot, 2012, Forthcoming) of conventional crops would have been required to produce the same tonnage. Some of the additional 91 million hectares would probably have required fragile marginal lands, not suitable for crop production, to be ploughed, and for tropical forest, rich in biodiversity, to be felled to make way for slash and burn agriculture in developing countries, thereby destroying biodiversity. Contributing to the alleviation of poverty and hunger To-date, biotech cotton in developing countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Bolivia, Burkina Faso and South Africa have already made a significant contribution to the income of ~15 million small resource-poor farmers in 2011; this can be enhanced significantly in the remaining 4 12

19 years of the second decade of commercialization, 2012 to 2015 principally with biotech cotton, maize and rice. Reducing agriculture s environmental footprint Conventional agriculture has impacted significantly on the environment and biotechnology can be used to reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture. Progress to-date includes: a significant reduction in pesticides; saving on fossil fuels; decreasing CO 2 emissions through no/ less ploughing; and conserving soil and moisture by optimizing the practice of no till through application of herbicide tolerance. The accumulative reduction in pesticides for the period 1996 to 2010 was estimated at 443 million kilograms (kgs) of active ingredient (a.i.), a saving of 9.1% in pesticides, which is equivalent to a 17.9% reduction in the associated environmental impact of pesticide use on these crops, as measured by the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) a composite measure based on the various factors contributing to the net environmental impact of an individual active ingredient. The corresponding data for 2010 alone was a reduction of 43.2 million kgs a.i. (equivalent to a saving of 11.1% in pesticides) and a reduction of 26.1% in EIQ (Brookes and Barfoot, 2012, Forthcoming). Increasing efficiency of water usage will have a major impact on conservation and availability of water globally. Seventy percent of fresh water is currently used by agriculture globally, and this is obviously not sustainable in the future as the population increases by almost 50% to over 9 billion by The first biotech maize hybrids with a degree of drought tolerance are expected to be commercialized by 2013 in the USA, and the first tropical drought tolerant biotech maize is expected by ~2017 for sub-saharan Africa. Drought tolerance is expected to have a major impact on more sustainable cropping systems worldwide, particularly in developing countries, where drought is more prevalent and severe than industrial countries. Helping mitigate climate change and reducing greenhouse gases The important and urgent concerns about the environment have implications for biotech crops, which contribute to a reduction of greenhouse gases and help mitigate climate change in two principal ways. First, permanent savings in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions through reduced use of fossil-based fuels, associated with fewer insecticide and herbicide sprays; in 2010, this was an estimated saving of 1.7 billion kg of CO 2, equivalent to reducing the number of cars on the roads by 0.8 million. Secondly, additional savings from conservation tillage (need for less or no ploughing facilitated by herbicide tolerant biotech crops) for biotech food, feed and fiber crops, led to an additional soil carbon sequestration equivalent in 2010 to 17.6 billion kg of CO 2, or removing 7.9 million cars off the road. Thus in 2010, the combined permanent and additional savings through sequestration was equivalent to a saving of 19 billion kg of CO 2 or removing 9 million cars from the road (Brookes and Barfoot, 2012, Forthcoming). Droughts, floods, and temperature changes are predicted to become more prevalent and more severe as we face the new challenges associated with climate change, and hence, there will be a 13

20 need for faster crop improvement programs to develop varieties and hybrids that are well adapted to more rapid changes in climatic conditions. Several biotech crop tools, including tissue culture, diagnostics, genomics, molecular marker-assisted selection (MAS) and biotech crops can be used collectively for speeding the breeding and help mitigate the effects of climate change. Biotech crops are already contributing to reducing CO 2 emissions by precluding the need for ploughing a significant portion of cropped land, conserving soil, and particularly moisture, and reducing pesticide spraying as well as sequestering CO 2. In summary, collectively the above five thrusts have already demonstrated the capacity of biotech crops to contribute to sustainability in a significant manner and for mitigating the formidable challenges associated with climate change and global warming; and the potential for the future is enormous. Biotech crops can increase productivity and income significantly, and hence, can serve as an engine of rural economic growth that can contribute to the alleviation of poverty for the world s small and resource-poor farmers. Climate change and crop production According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) cited by the US EPA (2011), several factors directly connect climate change and crop productivity, and summarized in the six paragraphs below: Increases in average temperature will result in the following effects i) a positive effect in high latitude temperate regions as a result of the lengthening of the growing season, ii) adversely affect crops in low altitude subtropical and tropical regions where summer heat is already limiting productivity, iii) negatively affect productivity due to an increase in soil evaporation rates, and iv) a negative effect due to an increased probability of more frequent and more severe droughts. Change in amount of rainfall and patterns will affect soil erosion rates and soil moisture, both of which are important for crop yields. Precipitation will increase in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical low latitude regions some by as much as about 20%. Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 will boost and enhance the growth of some crops but other aspects of climate change (e.g., higher temperatures and precipitation changes) may offset any beneficial boosting effect of higher CO 2 levels. Pollution levels of tropospheric ozone may increase due to CO 2 emissions resulting in higher temperatures that will offset the increased growth of crops resulting from higher levels of CO 2. Changes in the frequency and severity of heat waves, drought, floods and hurricanes, remain a key uncertain factor in future climate change that may potentially affect agriculture. Climatic changes will affect agricultural systems and may lead to emergence of new pests and diseases. 14