Monthly Factsheets October UCITS-compliant mutual funds. The 5 Investment Pillars of Karoll Capital Management: Crisp focus on Eastern Europe
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1 Monthly Factsheets October 2015 UCITS-compliant mutual funds Karoll Capital Management is a licensed asset manager established in Sofia in With a clear focus on investing in Emerging Europe, the firm has evolved into one of the most progressive asset management boutiques in the region. We at Karoll Capital Management take pride in our innovative approach toward money management and product development. In 2004 we pioneered the first stock mutual fund in the country. We were the first to offer local clients investment services abroad, and at the same time access of international investors to the local market. In 2012 we became the local partner of Schroders one of the top global asset managers. The 5 Investment Pillars of Karoll Capital Management: Crisp focus on Eastern Europe We believe new Europe offers excellent investment opportunities as the regional economies are set to grow faster that the Eurozone and given local stock exchanges embryonic stage of development. The positive market outlook combined with diminishing risk levels are once again starting to attract foreign investors to the region. While other Eastern European funds tend to invest in companies based elsewhere that only generate some of their revenues here, we focus solely on stocks of companies operating in the region. Solid expertise and passion for emerging markets Our in-depth local knowledge and on-the-ground presence give us an edge in analysing the economies and markets of Eastern Europe. All investment products are managed by seasoned investment specialists with solid capital markets expertise and a passion for Emerging Europe. Thanks to our location and excellent analytical capabilities we can access information quickly and easily as we visit companies on a regular basis. Karoll Capital s portfolio managers are dedicated to constructing investment portfolios positioned to outperform regional benchmarks and peers. Long-term horizon for success At Karoll Capital Management we believe in taking a long-term view when making investment decisions. We expect Eastern Europe to continue to outperform the Eurozone in the long run due to the convergence processes related to income levels, household living standards, interest rates, etc. This conviction is reflected in our asset allocation and stock selection process, where the horizon of portfolio investment decisions is usually beyond three years. Likewise, our clients are aware of emerging market investments volatile nature in the short run, so normally have a long-term investment perspective (at least 3 years). Disciplined investment process and flexible allocations Each of our investment products is managed by a separate Portfolio Manager. In making asset allocation decisions, the PM is supported by a four-member Investment Committee. The team debates and decides on the asset classes comprising the portfolio, as well as the geographic and sector splits. The stock selection is performed by the fund s PM with the help of a seasoned analyst team. Unlike most other assets managers investing in the region, we have the freedom to deviate from local indices based on our views. This gives us great flexibility in our investment choice, regularly leading to superior results and outperformance of benchmarks and peers. Meanwhile, ongoing risk management is essential to ensure excessive risk is avoided - our funds' risk measures are consistently lower than those of benchmarks. In-house valuations to ensure top picks Because of market inefficiencies we believe Emerging Europe is abundant with mispriced assets. Our analysts possess solid experience in screening the broad investment universe and identifying hidden gems through proprietary research. In estimating the true value of an asset we study the firm s ability to realize an IRR greater than the cost of capital, its shareholder structure and management capabilities, sector dynamics and overall market position. Onsite company visits are a key part of research as well. In addition to employing valuation methods, we always consider investor psychology, liquidity and order flows.
2 ADVANCE INVEST To seek long term capital appreciation through investments in stocks listed on the Bulgarian & Romanian markets. The fund is actively managed through bottom up selection of undervalued stocks with high growth potential as determined by fundamental measures. Even emerging markets this time took part in the strong October rebound from the bottoms and recorded significant gains. MSCI Emerging Markets index jumped 8.17% - something we hadn t seen in a while.. Even the Bulgarian SOFIX managed to stop sinking during this month, and even rose symbolically with 1%. However, it remains in the red by 14.4% YTD. Romania s BET re-emerged in the green gaining 3.2% for the month. Banks were again the leaders in growth in Romania - respectively BRD jumped +13% and TLV by + 11%. In Bulgaria as usual the liquidity remained low, but saw some recovery especially along the Q3 results of some of the best performing companies. One of the largest software companies in the country - Sirma Group realized a successful IPO albeit the lower limit of the price range. In October the indicator for economic sentiment in Romania surpassed the 2008 pre-crisis levels. The strong consumer confidence is the main driver behind this growth. Construction also continues to grow in the first 2/3 of the year it is up by 11.1% yoy. Meanwhile, the government approved a reduction of the tax on dividends from 16% to 5% (from 2016). The business climate in Bulgaria also noted improvement - the leaders in this regard remain retail and industrial production. The leading party in the country, GERB, strengthened its position in the local elections held at the end of the month. The targeted deficit in the state budget for 2016 will be 2%, which is within the Maastricht requirements. During the month, Advance Invest inched up 0.25%, and it still stands better YTD relative to the regional benchmark EFM Europe + CIS excl.ru, although the latter is closing the gap. Georgi Georgiev BGN 4.71 M NAV/share BGN Launch date 10/05/2004 Currency of account BGN (1EUR = BGN ) Subscription fee up to 1.% BSE Ticker Код в Bloomberg Bulgaria 49.9% BG AZ ADVIMFD BU Romaniа 43.7% Fund performance vs % 5.3% Advance Invest 6.4% 1 5.3% 100 Healthcare 5.8% Infrastructure Utilities 6.1% 6.8% Fund 1 month 0.25% 6.00% 1 year -4.97% -17.% Year to Date -4.58% % Since Launch (annualized) 0.26% 3.17% Industrials Holdings Financials and real estate 11.5% 12.4% 22.6% 23.0% 5 Largest Holdings Fund FONDUL PROPRIETATEA SA (Romaniа ), Holdings % 2.24% ТРЕЙС ГРУП ХОЛД АД (Bulgaria ), Infrastructure % % IAR BRASOV (Romaniа ), Industrials % 34.08% АКТИВ ПРОПЪРТИС АДСИЦ (Bulgaria ), Financials and real estate % % SNTGN TRANSGAZ S.A. (Romaniа ), Utilities % 16.29% % 51.49% % % % 20.71% % 9.97% % 51.04% % %
3 ADVANCE EASTERN EUROPE The goal of the fund is to ensure high investment results in the long term by investing in Eastern European equities in 6 regional markets. The global markets sentiment in October was much more positive last month as a result of expected new potential ECB stimulus as well as measures undertaken in China for stimulating the economy. The big developed markets jumped by as much as 8-12% with some of the developing markets participating in the positive trend too. The region of Central and Eastern Europe, however, exhibited mixed performance and did not fully benefit from the positive sentiment. MSCI EFM Europe + CIS jumped by 6.6% in euro terms, the major contributors being Russia and Turkey. The Russian USD-denominated RTS index advanced by more than 7%. The main Turkish index advanced by 7% too. The MSCI index performance was boosted by the nearly 12% surge of Kazakhstan. Apart from Russia, another market from Advance Eastern Europe s portfolio that finished the month on positive territory was Romania, whose major index erased the year-to-date losses after advancing 3.2%. Croatia was up by slightly more than 2%, while Bulgaria showed continuing weakness, rising just 1%. The Serbian market was on the downside, losing another 2% in October. The worst performer was Ukraine which after 10% drop in the past month, is already down by nearly 30% since the beginning of the year. In addition to that the Ukrainian hryvnia plunged by nearly 9% against USD in October alone (YTD losses already surpass 30%). The value of the fund s units gained 2% for the month and its year-to-date performance remains well above the two benchmarks. Nadia Nedelcheva, CFA EUR 2.96 M NAV/share EUR Launch date * MSCI EFM Europe&CIS ** Currency of account Euro Subscription fee up to 1.% Bloomberg Code Russia 29.2% BG ADVEAEU.BU Fund Performance Romaniа 28.9% Serbiа 9.1% Advance Eastern Europe Ukraine 4.3% * ** Croatia 9.2% Bulgaria 6.2% 1.9% 11.1% Food Industry 2.7% 18.1% Fund * ** 1 month 1.95% 6.58% 6.00% 1 year -5.49% % -17.% Year to Date 2.12% 0.46% % Since Launch (annualized) -3.39% -6.05% -4.16% Metallurgy Materials Utilities Consumer staples Holdings Industrials 3.4% 3.5% 6.2% 6.3% 7.1% 9.9% 11.1% Financials and real estate 15.5% 16.3% TOP 5 HOLDINGS Fund * ** BANKA TRANSILVANIA (Romaniа ), Financials and real estate % % 2.24% BANCA ROMANA PENTRU (Romaniа ), Financials and real estate % % % Akron JSC (Russia ), Industrials % 4.86% 34.08% FONDUL PROPRIETATEA SA (Romaniа ), Holdings % % % GMK Norliski Nikel (Russia ), Materials % 21.65% 16.29% % 73.42% 51.49% % % % % 11.54% 20.71%
4 ADVANCE EMERGING EUROPE OPPORTUNITIES The Fund invests in stocks of companies in the CEE region, and has a short-term holding horizon of the investments. After very poor performance of the global markets in September, most stock exchange indices finished on positive territory in October. The developed European markets were among the top performers for the month as a result result of hints at potential enlargement of the ECB QE program. The region of Central and Eastern Europe benefited only partially from the positive trend with advancing 6%. The 7% rise of the main Turkish index contributed strongly to the index gains; in addition, the Turkish lira strengthened its positions during the month. The markets from the portfolio of Advance Emerging Europe Opportunities performed comparatively poorly against the general positivism. The Polish market which has the highest weight in the fund s assets, finished the month almost flat. At the end of October the parliamentary elections took place in Poland and as sociology polls suggested, they were won by the conservative opposition party Law & Justice. Political uncertainty was weighing on the market during the previous months. After a slight rise at the beginning of October, the main indices again moved down towards the end of the month. The pre-election promises and measures considered by Law & Justice endanger the economic outlook of the country. The victory is considered the beginning of tougher relations with the European Union. Hungary and the Czech Republic finished the month up by 3.3% and 1.2%, respectively. Estonia and Lithuania were almost flat while the Latvian index gained 4.6%. In October the value of the fund s units advanced by 3.2%, its year-to-date performance continuing to beat the benchmark. Fund Performance Nadia Nedelcheva, CFA EUR 1.49 M NAV/share EUR Launch date Currency of account Euro Subscription fee up to 1.% Bloomberg Code Hungary 7.8% Lithuania 2.0% Poland 37.1% BG ADVIPOF.BU Czech 12.9% Russia 2.5% Estonia 8.9% MF AEEO Austria 11.3% 4.9% 12.7% Insurance Furniture 3.40% 4.03% 29.43% Consumer staples 4.44% Fund 1 month 3.18% 6.00% 1 year % -17.% Year to Date -3.57% % Since Launch (annualized) -2.81% -7.58% Pharmaceuticals Entertainment Financials Telecommunications Banks 4.79% 5.38% 5.88% 8.01% 10.83% 11.14% 12.67% 5 Largest Holdings Fund % 2.24% KRUK S.A. (Poland ), Financials % % ERSTE GROUP BANK AG (Austria), Banks % 34.08% UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP AG (Austria), Insurance % % WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC (London), Air Transport % 16.29% OLYMPIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP (Estonia), Entertainment % 51.49% % %
5 How to invest in our UCITS-compliant mutual funds? Karoll Capital Management manages four UCITS-compliant mutual funds focused on emerging Europe: Advance Invest invests in listed companies in Bulgaria & Romania. Advance Eastern Europe invests in stocks of companies in 6 selected markets - Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Russia and Ukraine. Advance Emerging Europe Opportunities invests in stocks of companies in CEE. Advance Conservative Fund invests primarily in local bank deposits and fixed income instruments. How to buy and redeem fund units All funds are UCITS-IV compliant. The Fund s NAV is calculated every business day by 5 pm local time. In order to subscribe or redeem Advance funds units, please send us an enquiry at investing@karoll.bg or fax at +359 (2) , and we will revert back with specific trading instructions. To facilitate the process of executing and settling the transactions, please provide us with the details of your local sub-custodian, if available. Fund Management Company Karoll Capital Management. The company holds a full license for fund and portfolio management services. Karoll Capital Management 1 Zlatovrah Str. Sofia, Bulgaria Tel: +359 (2) Fax: +359 (2) investing@karoll.bg Funds structure All Advance funds are UCITS-IV compliant Fund custody and administration - Eurobank EFG Bulgaria for Advance Invest and Advance Conservative Fund; UniCredit Bulbank for Advance Eastern Europe and Advance IPO Fund Auditor Grant Thornton Ltd, Regulator Financial Supervision Commission, Bulgaria Dealing The funds are open for trading every business day with cut-off at 5 PM Bulgarian time (4 PM CET). Subscriptions and redemptions accepted in BGN and EUR. Settlement Settlement takes place as delivery against payment (DVP) within two days, either in BGN or EUR. Register of units The units of all Advance UCITS compliant funds are registered electronically with the Bulgarian Central Depository. Custody banks details Advance Invest - Eurobank EFG Bulgaria, SWIFT: BPBIBGSF Advance Eastern Europe - Unicredit Bulbank, SWIFT: UNCRBGSF Advance Emerging Europe Opportunities - Unicredit Bulbank, SWIFT: UNCRBGSF Advance Conservative Fund - Eurobank EFG Bulgaria, SWIFT: BPBIBGSF Some custody banks that safe-keep Advance funds The following banks have opened direct sub-custody accounts in Bulgaria: Citibank, Citco Global Custody, Bank Austria Creditanstalt, Credit Suisse Securities, Deutsche Bank, Erste Bank, HSBC, ING, Raiffeisen, Societe Generale, etc. Legal Disclaimer The historical results of the mutual funds do not guarantee future results. The value of the investment and the income from it can increase as well as decrease. Profits are not guaranteed and there is a risk that investors may not receive the full amount of the invested funds. Investments in the mutual funds are not guaranteed by a state guarantee fund or any other institution. This material has been prepared by Karoll Capital Management, a licensed asset management company, a member of the Bulgarian Association of Asset Management Companies (BAAMC). It has been approved by the Compliance department at Karoll Capital Management. The prospectuses, KIIDs and Rules of the funds are publicly available at all offices of Karoll Capital Management as well as at
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