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1 Business benchmarking 2009: For members of the East European Group Summary results November 2009 Contents Executive summary CEE as a share of global sales Key markets Sales performance in 2009 Profits in 2009 Outlook for 2010 Medium-term priorities Respondent tdemographics

2 Executive summary In November we asked Corporate Network members: - how the CEE region fits into their current global sales structure - what their priority markets are now and mid-term - and how they are forecasting sales and profits for 2009 to 2010 While 2009 was a difficult year in all CEE markets, companies are cautiously optimistic about 2010 Russia and Poland, the two largest CEE markets, are also expected to be the fastest growing in 2010 These two also top the rankings of medium-term priority markets, followed by Romania and the Czech Republic CEE as a share of global sales Respondents told us that on average CEE makes up about 8% of global sales This calculation excludes those companies that do all or most of their business in the region Last time we asked this question (January 2008), CEE accounted for about 5% of global sales The increase reflects CEE s rapid economic and business growth through 2008 But the share could drop over the next year or two as a result of poor performance during the crisis and the region s relative maturity to markets like China

3 Key markets (1) Russia remains the most important market in CEE, accounting for 21% of regional sales (unchanged from the last survey in early 2008) Poland however, which also accounted for 21% in 2008, dropped to 17%, still the second largest market The Czech Republic accounts for about 11% of sales, down from 13% Romania s share of sales grew (from 8% to 10%) and pushed ahead of Hungary (down from 10% to 9%); Ukraine also grew from 5% to 7% Slovakia grew and now contributes about 5% of regional sales, compared to 4% previously Firms that include Turkey in CEE say it is third, accounting for about 11% of sales (down from 13%) Key markets (2) 21 Of your CEE sales, what percentage comes out of the following key markets? Russia Poland Turkey Czech Republic Romania Hungary Ukraine Slovakia

4 Key markets (3) Comparing the regional share of GDP with the regional sales, the Russian market is still below potential, despite its weight in the region Russia contributes 36% of CEE s nominal GDP in 2009, but only 21% of regional sales Poland, on the other hand, is more than pulling its weight: it accounts for only 12% of regional GDP but 21% of sales Likewise, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and even Ukraine all generate a higher proportion of sales than GDP Turkey comes closer to equilibrium, though remains slightly behind, accounting for 17% of regional GDP and 13% of sales Key markets (4) % share of CEE sales vs % share of CEE GDP % of CEE sales Hungary 5 Slovakia Czech Republic Romania Ukraine Poland Turkey Russia % of CEE GDP

5 Sales performance in 2009 (1) Sales came under severe pressure in CEE as the economic crisis pummelled most markets For those companies with Turkey in the region, the market was relatively strong, despite the harsh recession 46% of firms say sales grew in 2009 Sales in Poland weathered the storm relatively well, reflecting continued GDP growth 41% showed growth and 32% decline The only other country showing more companies growing than declining was Kazakhstan Sales performance in Russia held up relatively well, since numbers had already been hit in % showed growth (over half of those in double digits) and 46% decline Sales performance in 2009 (2) Ukraine saw very mixed sales, with 58% falling and 34% growing In the Czech Republic, sales were also very mixed, depending on sectors just over 40% saw growth, but the same number saw falling sales too Slovakia, harder hit by the downturn in the auto industry, saw only 24% of companies growing and 29% reported significant declines Hungary continued to show steep declines, with 56% reporting falling sales and only 23% growth In Romania and Bulgaria, only around 30% of companies grew Slovenia was relatively stable: 41% said sales were flat and neither growth nor declines were dramatic

6 Sales performance in 2009 (3) Not surprisingly, sales took the deepest blow in the recession-battered Baltics A notable 88% of firms in Latvia say sales had fallen, half of those significantly and not a single firm reported growth Likewise the vast majority of firms in Lithuania and Estonia saw falling sales and little growth Sales performance 2009 (3) How have sales performed in 2009 vs 2008? 23% 17% 15% 15% 21% 28% 25% 24% 24% 30% 29% 28% 38% 38% 42% 15% 17% 44% 12% 15% 31% 21% 19% 31% 27% 20% 22% 28% 21% 28% 15% 14% 29% 41% 25% 25% 41% 8% 20% 28% 44% 27% 28% 35% 21% 21% 44% 34% 28% 14% 19% 19% 17% 13% 14% 24% 17% 13% 21% 22% 20% 11% 13% 13% 12% 12% 13% 8% 10% 6% 13% 2% 5% 6% 3% 3% Turkey Kazakhstan Czech Poland Russia Azerbaijan Ukraine Belarus Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Serbia Slovakia Croatia Hungary Estonia Lithuania Latvia Double-digit growth Single-digit growth Stable Single-digit decline Double-digit decline

7 Profits in 2009 (1) As credit dried up and sales plunged across CEE profits also took a hit Over 60% of firms in all three Baltic states and Ukraine say profits have dropped more steeply than sales Across the rest of the region, the percentage of firms saying profits have taken a bigger hit than sales is less than 50% Bottom lines held up better in Kazakhstan, Turkey and Slovenia, where fewer than a third have seen profits drop more steeply than sales In Poland, 30% of firms tell us profits outperformed sales exceeding those that say profits have suffered (25%) Profits in 2009 (2) How have profits performed in 2009 vs 2008? Latvia 71% 26% 3% Lithuania 68% 29% 3% Estonia 65% 29% 6% Ukraine 61% 22% 17% Belarus 47% 38% Hungary 45% 41% 14% Bulgaria 43% 40% Croatia 41% 46% 14% Serbia 41% 51% 8% Russia 40% 40% 21% Azerbaijan 39% 42% Slovakia 39% 50% 11% Romania 38% 50% 12% Czech Republic 37% 47% Kazakhstan 33% 49% Turkey 31% 51% 17% Slovenia 30% 53% Poland 26% 44% 30% Profit squeeze Profits in line with sales Higher profit margins

8 15% 17% 23% 24% 24% 27% Outlook for 2010: sales (1) With an improved outlook for economic performance across the region in 2010, the majority of firms in all markets expect sales to grow next year Companies in Poland and Russia are the most optimistic: 88% and 84% of firms, respectively, say sales will grow with a notable 42% of firms in Russia forecasting double-digit sales growth (the highest in the region), followed by Kazakhstan Firms in Slovakia, Czech Republic and Turkey are similarly positive about next year over three-quarters expect growth Serbia joins the Baltic states with a solid 40% or higher expecting stable sales or further decline Outlook for 2010: sales (2) How do you expect sales to perform in 2010? 2% 2% 2% 6% 3% 2% 2% 10% 6% 3% 6% 2% 5% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 5% 8% 9% 5% 10% 12% 14% 10% 9% 13% 13% 42% 23% 27% 19% 22% 30% 28% 31% 28% 31% 69% 67% 69% 55% 53% 33% 59% 39% 57% 51% 57% 37% 41% 38% 36% 41% 38% 42% 40% 19% 21% 22% 10% 12% 8% 29% 27% 22% 22% 23% 14% 9% 7% Poland Russia Slovakia Czech Turkey Romania Kazakhstan Slovenia Azerbaijan Hungary Croatia Bulgaria Ukraine Belarus Estonia Serbia Lithuania Latvia Double-digit growth Single-digit growth Stable Single-digit decline Double-digit decline

9 Outlook for 2010: profits (1) In general, the majority of firms across the region expect profits to grow in line with sales in 2010 The outlook is very polarised in Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia three markets expected to remain under pressure (though Ukraine should achieve growth) In all other markets, fewer than 22% of firms say they expect profits to remain under pressure next year Outlook for 2010: profits (2) How do you expect profits to perform in 2010? Ukraine 29% 50% 21% Estonia 25% 44% 31% Latvia 25% 50% 25% Bulgaria 22% 63% 15% Hungary 22% 61% Lithuania 19% 55% 26% Romania 64% Serbia 64% Belarus 17% 57% 26% Azerbaijan 17% 56% 28% Russia 62% 22% Czech Republic 14% 63% 22% Turkey 14% 56% 31% Croatia 14% 65% 22% Slovenia 13% 68% 20% Kazakhstan 12% 63% 24% Slovakia 11% 68% 21% Poland 10% 66% 24% Profit squeeze Profits in line with sales Higher profit margins

10 Outlook for marketing spend (1) Firms across the region cut marketing and advertising budgets sharply as a result of the crisis in an attempt to buffer their bottom line Plans for this year are very mixed 47% of firms in our survey say marketing budgets in 2010 will remain level with 2009 which, for most firms, means marketing will remain steeply down compared to past years And 8% of tell us they will trim advertising even further On the other hand, 45% will increase marketing budgets and 9% say they will spend significantly more Outlook for marketing spend (2) What are your plans for investing in marketing and advertising in the CEE region in 2010? Compared to 2009, do you expect to spend: 8% 9% 36% Significantly more More Same Less 47%

11 Outlook for headcount (1) After a year of HR cuts or freezes, around half of the firms in our survey told us they expect staff numbers to remain the same in 2010 And one-third of firms say they will resume hiring again But 13% say they plan to continue to make layoffs next year Outlook for headcount (2) Do you expect your headcount in the CEE region in 2010 to: 13% 1% 33% Increase significantly Increase Stay the same Decrease Decrease significantly 53%

12 Medium-term priorities (1) We asked respondents to rank their top ten markets for the next three to five years Russia clearly took the top spot, with 50% placing it as a top priority, eclipsing Poland, which only of respondents named number one When aggregated by all firms rankings, Russia and Poland remain on top, with Romania in third place Czech Republic also rose in the ranking, catapulting from 10 th place to 4 th, as did Turkey (from 8 th to 6 th ) Ukraine took 5 th place despite its problems Slovakia moved up to 9 th place, elbowing Serbia out of the top ten Kazakhstan, Hungary and Bulgaria made the top ten but all fell in the ranking Medium-term priorities (2) What are your top ten priority markets over the next 3-5 years? 1. Russia (1) Poland (3) Romania (2) Czech Republic (10) Ukraine (4) Turkey (8) Kazakhstan (5) Hungary (7) Slovakia (12) Bulgaria (6) 29 Note: 12 points awarded for a 1 st ranking, 10 points for 2 nd ranking, 8 for 3 rd, 7 for 4 th etc, subsequently adjusted to weigh all against the first ranked at 100. Countries 2008 rankings are given in brackets.

13 Medium-term priorities (3) Russia and CIS will receive the lion s share of investments over the next three to five years: 78% of firms plan to increase investments in the medium term with 28% saying they will invest significantly ifi more 67% plan to invest more in central Europe and the remaining one-third will keep investment levels flat (no firms plan to cut investments) South-eastern Europe lags slightly behind the other two sub-regions: 56% of firms say they will increase investments, while a solid 43% will keep investment levels steady Medium-term priorities (4) Focusing on sub-regions, is your company planning on investing over the next 3-5 years in: Russia & CIS 28% 50% 19% 3% Central Europe 10% 57% 33% South-eastern Europe 7% 49% 43% 1% Significantly more More About the same Less

14 Respondent demographics 79 companies responded to our survey, conducted between 5 th -20 th November 2009 FMCG, industrial and healthcare/pharmaceutical firms were the most represented sectors: 6% 6% What is your sector? 4% Consumer durables Fast moving consumer goods 9% 29% Financial services Healthcare and pharmaceutical Industrial 22% Professional services 8% Telecoms and IT Other Economist Corporate Network is the membership-based briefing and networking service from The Economist for senior executives seeking insight into economic and business trends across markets and regions. It has regional business groups in Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific. Independent, fact-based and thought-provoking, Economist Corporate Network provides knowledge and understanding of business issues in these regions. This service builds on the resources of The Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister business to The Economist. Copyright Economist Corporate Network Boulevard des Tranchees Geneva, Switzerland Telephone: (43) (0) Fax: (43 1) The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited All rights reserved Neither this 2009 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.

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