Investing in frontier markets with a high dividend strategy: the best of both worlds

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1 Investing in frontier markets with a high dividend strategy: the best of both worlds In 1996 the World Bank-related International Finance Corporation introduced the term Frontier Markets. tend to be low-income countries, not yet big enough to join the more established. We expect that a number of these will in time join the. This process of growing up could be an interesting aspect for investors for a number of reasons. Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Equity in figures Four expected sources of return 1 Dividend Yield (6%-8% p/a) Minimum Dividend Yield at Purchase 4% 2 Capital Returns 3 Future Currency Appreciations 4 Increasing Popularity of High Dividend Strategies in Countries Universe Shares Universe Number of Shares in Fund 40 countries 5,825 shares shares Which countries are? The current Universe comprises the following countries: Europe Africa Middle East Asia Latin America Bulgeria Botswana Bahrain Bangladesh Argentina Croatia Ghana Jordan Cambodia Ecuador Cyprus Ivory Coast Kuwait Pakistan Jamaica Estonia Kenya Lebanon Kazakhstan Panama Georgia Mauritius Oman Sri Lanka Trinidad & Tobago Lativia Namibia Saudi Arabia Vietnam Lithuania Nigeria Qatar Romania Tunisia U.A.E. Slovakia Zambia Slovenia Eqypt Ukraine 1

2 Investing in is attracting increasing investor interest. This is because the Universe plays an increasing role in the demographic and economic developments in the world. Some 17% of the world population currently lives in ; they produce 6% of the world s GDP and this is growing fast. Why invest in? There are many reasons why offer investors interesting investment opportunities. Alongside the fact that history will repeat itself, as we have seen for who were once the of some 30 years ago, below we offer some of the fundamental drivers. World land area covered by 16% 1. Structural Higher GDP Growth generally offer higher economic growth than Emerging and. Analysts expect this to continue for the foreseeable future. 52% 32% Real GDP growth 5-year rolling average ( E) World population living in 8% 7% 6% forecasts 5% 17% 67% 16% 4% 3% 2% 1% Worldwide GDP produced by % 32% 62% 2

3 2. Favourable Demographics can generally be characterized as countries with a low average age and a fast-growing population. Over the next two decades the dependency ratio (working vs. nonworking) will improve significantly. 3. Low Debt The Debt problem has reared its ugly head in Developed Markets. In, financing is generally at an early stage in terms of government or household debt. Annual population growth ( ) Public debt / GDP (2012E) 2.5% % % UN forecasts Dependency ratio Household debt / GDP ( ) UN forecasts

4 4. Large Consumer Markets With almost 93% of the middle-class consumers in Frontier and by 2030, we expect high retail sales growth in these markets. The growing middle-class is one of the main drivers for economic growth in. Although modern retail sales are still a small portion of total retail sales, the growth rate is substantially higher than in Emerging and. 5. Low correlation Looking at the asset class of listed shares, show the lowest correlation numbers with the MSCI World. Among individual Frontier countries we find a varying range of correlations, mostly due to local economic and political developments. Share of global middle class by region % 40w correlation with MSCI World Index (since 1988) % % % Modern retail sales as % of total retail 40w correlation with MSCI World, 5y range and latest value DM CAGR: y range EM CAGR: 4.3% 2-2 latest value 20 FM CAGR: 6.3% Argentina Romania Ukraine Kazakhstan Frontier Vietnam Nigeria Kenya Sri Lanka Bangladesh Egypt Pakistan Mexico Emerging Brazil South Africa Russia Korea China India Turkey 4

5 6. Attractive Valuations Using various valuation methods, are priced at the lower end of the listed shares universe. This in contrast with a higher dividend yield, higher return on equity and a faster growth in earnings per share. Price to Earnings ratio The case for a high dividend strategy In 2004 R.D. Arnott and C.S. Asness published their paper entitled: Surprise! Higher Dividends = Higher Earnings Growth. The paper stated that companies with a higher dividend yield tend to be the fastest growers in earnings per share. The figure below shows the results of another study conducted by Gwilyn, Seaton, Suddason and Thomas in This research also confirms the idea that higher dividends tend to lead to higher earnings growth and higher dividend growth. We back-tested this strategy for the Universe and found results that are strongly correlated with the results of this strategy in the more developed markets Real Subsequent 5-years Earnings and Dividend Growth 10 (Data Analyzed ) 5 Earnings Dividends France Lowest Quartile 1 6.2% 2.9% Quartile 2 8.7% 18.1% Quartile 3 9.7% 8.9% MSCI World MSCI MSCI Highest Quartile % 14.6% Germany Lowest Quartile 1 3.5% - 0.8% Quartile 2-0,6% 6.7% Price to Book ratio Quartile 3 9.3% 6.1% Highest Quartile % 18.2% 2,5 Japan Lowest Quartile 1-6.5% - 2.3% 2 Quartile 2 3.1% - 2.6% Quartile 3 7.4% 9.2% 1,5 Highest Quartile % 12.1% Netherlands Lowest Quartile 1 3.8% 2.5% 1 Quartile % Quartile % 14.4% 0,5 Highest Quartile % 8.9% Switzerland Lowest Quartile 1 0.7% - 0.7% Quartile 2 2.2% 8.2% Quartile % 7.4% Highest Quartile % MSCI World United Kingdom MSCI MSCI Lowest Quartile 1 5.8% 1.4% Quartile % 13.6% Quartile 3 8.6% 11.9% Highest Quartile % United States Lowest Quartile 1 7.7% 6.6% Quartile 2 6.1% 5. Quartile 3 3.3% 10.9% Highest Quartile % 11.4% O. Gwilyn, J. Seaton, K. Suddason, S. Thomas;

6 Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Equity Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Equity (IFHD-fund) seeks to provide investors with high dividend income as well as long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of equities listed in the Universe. The fund will only invest in stocks with an expected dividend yield of 4% or more. The expected dividend yield of the fund will be between 6%-8% per annum, based on the historic performance. The dividend will be paid out twice a year. Below you will find the risk/return results of the back-testing.* The figure shows that the return of the High Dividend back-test outperformed the indices. From a risk perspective the back-test showed less volatility than the MSCI Asia, MSCI, MSCI Europe and MSCI. The fund will invest in stocks listed on the local exchanges of the Universe. For example, investments will be channeled into Nigeria, Ghana, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh Egypt and Sri Lanka, to name a few of the low-income Frontiers. The fund also will invest in the GCC countries of Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The number of countries represented in the fund s portfolio could be extended in future, in line with developments in the various. The fund manager back-tested the High Dividend Strategy for a period of 5 years. This back-test has been performed with the same quantitative selection which will be used for the IFHDfund. Annualized Risk & Return (2 July June 2012) Return Back-test MSCI World MSCI Asia (ex Japan) MSCI MSCI Europe MSCI Risk Back-test (in euro s) Risk 17.16% Return 6.97% * No rights may be derived from the back-testing results. The value of your investment may fluctuate. Past results are no guarantee for the future. 6

7 The benefits to investors High dividend income returns from a high dividend - yielding portfolio; Capital returns from the high dividend Universe; Early adoption of the high dividend strategy; Attractive risk/return profile through bear and bull cycles; Unique combination of the prospects of with a high income strategy. Equity Funds: Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Equity (as of 14 November 2012) Intereffekt Frontier Vietnam Intereffekt Emerging Africa Derivative Funds: Intereffekt Brazil Warrants Intereffekt India Warrants Intereffekt China Warrants Intereffekt Japanese Warrants For whom is this suitable? Private individual investors have limited access to Frontier Markets. An investment fund is therefore a sound alternative to investments in individual stocks. Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Equity is the first open-ended investment fund listed on the stock exchange in the Netherlands, which focuses on in combination with a high dividend strategy and which can be traded on a daily basis through any bank or broker as of 14 November An investment in this fund would be suitable for those investors who have confidence in the future development of those countries and sectors which we have selected. This fund is also suitable for those investors able to withstand greater risks and who wish to achieve a better spread of their securities portfolio. Manager The investment funds of Intereffekt Investment Funds N.V. are managed by TRUSTUS Capital Management B.V. in Joure, The Netherlands. This organization currently manages the following listed funds: The manager of Intereffekt Investment Funds holds a license issued by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets in accordance with the Financial Supervision Act (Wet op het financieel toezicht). RISKS In addition to the many opportunities and great potential offered by investments in, there are inevitably risks involved which require attention. For this reason you should consider the following: Although there has been a sharp decline in the number of wars and conflicts, there still are dangerous or violent countries and regions; Political issues, such as corrupt governments and the need to improve the rule of law. As a result of this, earnings from oil and raw materials may be wasted on the wrong projects or may even be stolen. These issues will need to be tackled to reach the following stage of economic development; Healthcare is still underdeveloped. Child mortality, clean drinking water, and AIDS and HIV remain major problems; A large part of the infrastructure needs to be constructed and upgraded. This is definitely a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth; There is a huge disparity in income. A consumer class may emerge in the next decade but a middle class will only materialize once governments commit themselves to a more equitable distribution of income. 7

8 Essential information Fund Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Risk profile High, due to investments in equities and Equity (a subsidiary fund of Intereffekt. Investment Funds N.V.) Correlation The relationship between global financial Type of fund Equity fund markets and is low, Issue price EUR per share because the latter are less sensitive to Stock exchange NYSE Euronext Amsterdam as of international developments. listing 14 November 2012 Benchmark MSCI Index (Total Return) Buying and selling Every trading day through any bank or Tax-related aspects No company tax is levied on profit broker as of 14 November 2012 achieved by Intereffekt Investment Structure Open-ended Funds N.V. Aim High dividend income as well as long- Managing director TRUSTUS Capital Management B.V. term capital appreciation by investing in a Fund Manager Team of TRUSTUS diversified portfolio of equities listed in the Management fee 1.5% per annum Universe. Performance fee 1 per annum of the outperformance Investment policy The fund will invest in stocks listed on the of the benchmark, the MSCI Frontier local exchanges of the Markets Index (Total Return) Universe. For example, investments will be Expense ratio 2.3%, exclusively performance fee channeled into Nigeria, Ghana, Vietnam, (2013 budget) Pakistan, Egypt, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, Maximum positive 0.5% to name a few of the low-income Frontiers. deviation upon NAV The fund will also invest in the GCC countries Maximum negative 0.5% of Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and deviation upon NAV the United Arab Emirates. ISIN code NL Dividend The expected dividend yield of the fund Trading symbol INFRO will be between 6%-8% per annum. The dividend will be paid out twice a year. External sources The following external sources have been used: Bloomberg, CIRA, Datastream, Euromonitor, Factset, IMF, Moody s, UN Population Division and World Bank. Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Equity P.O. Box 138, 8500 AC Joure The Netherlands T +31 (0) E I Disclaimer No rights may be derived from this publication. You are referred to the prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document for the fund s terms and conditions. These documents may be obtained from the website or the address mentioned. An application has been submitted for admission to listing on Euronext. The manager of Intereffekt Global Frontier High Dividend Equity has obtained a license for this fund from the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets in accordance with the provisions of the Financial Supervision Act. 8

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