Economic Development and Employment in New York Metro Areas

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1 Economic Development and Employment in New York Metro Areas December 9, 2014 The Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) wishes to thank the Ford and Charles Stewart Mott Foundations for their support of FPI s state fiscal policy work.

wishes to thank the Ford and Charles Stewart Mott

2 By June 2014 New York State had 232,900 more jobs than at the beginning of the great recession which started for New York in June This represents a 2.5% increase in employment for New York, 3 times higher than the national average of.8% over the same period. Since the bottom of the recession in June 2009, New York has added employment at a 6% rate, the same as the rest of the nation. This masks two important facts: New York was hit harder than the nation and had slower growth after the 2001 recession, and almost all of the growth in employment occurred in the New York City and Long Island metro areas.

Since the bottom of the recession in June 2009, New York has added employment at a 6% rate, the same as the rest of the nation.

3 While NYS grew faster than the nation since the bottom of the great recession, it was catching up from the last recession. 110 Indexed Non-Farm Employment (June 2001 = 100) NYS US Source: US BLS, Current Employment Statistics. Year

110 Indexed Non-Farm Employment (June 2001 = 100) 105 100 NYS US 95 2001 2002 2003 2004

4 NYC created more jobs than the state as a whole, and all but Albany, Ithaca, NYC and Long Island metro areas were not back to their 2008 peaks by June Non Farm Employment Difference Jun 14 Jun 08 Jun US 139,776, ,612, ,870,000 1,164,000 7,906,000 NYS 9,371,100 9,138,200 8,841, , ,500 Metro Areas Albany 456, , , ,600 Binghamton 107, , ,600 (9,400) (5,200) Buffalo 557, , ,100 (1,000) 17,300 Elmira 38,900 41,600 39,400 (2,700) (500) Glens Falls 58,300 60,200 58,500 (1,900) (200) Ithaca 65,600 62,100 61,200 3,500 4,400 Kingston 61,400 63,300 60,800 (1,900) 600 Long Island 1,318,700 1,288,200 1,248,200 30,500 70,500 NYC 4,067,500 3,814,500 3,688, , ,700 Rochester 521, , ,000 (400) 18,300 Syracuse 313, , ,500 (12,700) (1,000) Utica 129, , ,800 (5,600) (2,300) Westchester 578, , ,600 (10,900) 13,500 Metro Areas Total 8,274,200 8,033,600 7,768, , ,700 Source:: NYS Dept of Labor, Current Employment Statistics (CES).

456,600 456,500 445,000 100 11,600 Binghamton 107,400 116,800 112,600 (9,400) (5,200) Buffalo 557,400 558,400 540,100 (1,000) 17,300 Elmira 38,900 41,600 39,400 (2,700) (500) Glens Falls 58,300

5 New York State employment patterns can be broken down into three distinct groups: NYC and Long Island metro areas, which are growing faster than both the state and the nation. Albany, Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, which are growing slower than the national rate but have an upward trajectory showing that they are recovering from the recession. Binghamton, Elmira, Syracuse, Utica metro areas, which have not recovered from the 2001 recession and are continuing to decline. The other New York metro areas fall somewhere in between.

Albany, Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, which are growing slower than the national rate but have an upward trajectory showing that

6 NYC grew at a slower rate than either the nation or the state until 2008 when it starter to grow at a faster rate than both Indexed Non-Farm Employment (June 2001=100%) NYS NYC US Long Island Year

00 Indexed Non-Farm Employment (June 2001=100%) 108.00 106.00 104.00 102.00 100.00 98.

7 The Buffalo and Rochester metro areas have yet to come back to their 2001 employment levels but show a positive trend in employment. Albany has the same trend but has already surpassed it 2001 and 2008 employment levels Indexed Non-Farm Employment (June 2001=100%) Albany Buffalo Rochester US Year

Albany has the same trend but has already surpassed it 2001 and 2008 employment levels. 104.

8 These four metro areas continue to decline and have not started to recover from the 2001 recession, with the decline accelerating with the great recession Indexed Non-Farm Employment (June 2001=100%) Binghamton Elmira Syracuse Utica US Year

00 Indexed Non-Farm Employment (June 2001=100%) 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 94.00 92.00 90.

9 To understand these trends in employment it is important to look at how the different industrial sectors changed during the recession. The government sector (federal, state and local) saw the largest drop in employment since June 2008 (91,000), followed by manufacturing (88,800) and finance (44,100) positions. This was offset by increases in the health and education sector (214,600) and leisure and hospitality (155,700). The composition of positions is shifting from jobs with higher wages and benefits to those with lower wages and fewer benefits.

(88,800) and finance (44,100) positions.

10 NYS has lost a higher percentage of its manufacturing, finance and government jobs than the rest of the nation, while adding more leisure and hospitality and education and health service positions.

11 NYC grew faster than the nation by adding a large percentage of hospitality and leisure positions along with education and health services jobs, while seeing declines in the shares of finance, manufacturing and government jobs.

with education and health services jobs, while seeing

12 Albany is the only metro area to see an increase in manufacturing while Buffalo and Rochester continue to lose manufacturing positions. They also are shedding government positions at a faster rate than the rest of the nation.

13 This group continues to lose manufacturing positions at a much faster rate than the nation, while only adding leisure and hospitality positions at the national rate.

14 Binghamton, Elmira and Syracuse have all seen large percentage drops in manufacturing but still have a larger share of their economies employment in manufacturing. NYC also saw a large drop in manufacturing but this sector is not as important to NYC s economy. Percent Change Area Jun 14 Jun 08 Jun US 12,209,000 13,580,000 11,791, % 3.5% NYS 471, , , % 4.8% NYS Metro Areas Albany 24,800 22,900 20, % 19.2% Binghamton 11,700 18,000 16, % 27.3% Buffalo 50,900 58,500 50, % 1.8% Elmira 5,000 6,600 5, % 12.3% Glens Falls 6,300 6,800 6, % 1.6% Ithaca 3,400 3,800 3, % 13.3% Kingston 3,400 4,100 3, % 2.9% Long Island 74,600 82,300 75, % 1.6% NYC 77,200 96,900 82, % 6.2% Rochester 57,700 70,300 62, % 7.1% Syracuse 24,100 31,900 27, % 13.3% Utica 11,000 12,800 11, % 5.2% Westchester 23,500 30,000 27, % 15.8% NYS Metro Areas Total 373, , , % 4.9% Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics

5% NYS 471,600 560,400 495,400 15.8% 4.8% NYS Metro Areas Albany 24,800 22,900 20,800 8.3% 19.2% Binghamton 11,700 18,000 16,100 35.0% 27.3% Buffalo 50,900 58,500 50,000 13.0% 1.

15 NYS government sector has the same share of the state s economy as the nation.

16 On average, the metro areas that cut government jobs the most saw greater declines in overall employment coming out of the recession. Overall the state saw cuts in the government sector double the rate of the nation as a whole. Percent Change Area Jun 14 Jun 08 Jun US 21,872,000 22,497,000 22,564, % 3.1% NYS 1,496,100 1,587,100 1,584, % 5.6% NYS Metro Areas Albany 102, , , % 7.2% Binghamton 22,600 25,200 25, % 11.0% Buffalo 90,600 96,000 95, % 5.3% Elmira 6,600 7,600 7, % 12.0% Glens Falls 10,700 11,500 12, % 10.8% Ithaca 9,200 8,300 8, % 3.4% Kingston 14,200 15,700 15, % 9.6% Long Island 197, , , % 6.8% NYC 537, , , % 3.9% Rochester 79,900 82,000 81, % 1.8% Syracuse 58,500 59,600 59, % 2.3% Utica 32,300 35,400 34, % 7.4% Westchester 89, ,300 99, % 9.7% NYS Metro Areas Total 1,251,700 1,324,800 1,322, % 5.4% Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics

1% NYS 1,496,100 1,587,100 1,584,900 5.7% 5.6% NYS Metro Areas Albany 102,300 110,800 110,200 7.7% 7.2% Binghamton 22,600 25,200 25,400 10.3% 11.0% Buffalo 90,600 96,000 95,700 5.6% 5.

17 Can differences in wages explain the decline in the manufacturing sector? A recent NELP study by Ruckelshaus and Leberstein, Manufacturing Low Pay: Declining Wages in Jobs that Built America s Middle Class, Nov 2014; shows that manufacturing positions pay less than the average job and cannot explain the decline in manufacturing jobs.

Wages in Jobs that Built America s Middle Class, Nov 2014; shows that manufacturing

18 NYS median wages are consistently above those of the nation but are narrowing over time and are consistent with the state adding a higher level of lower paying position in sectors like hospitality and leisure. Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data ** Using CPI-U-RS.

of lower paying position in sectors like hospitality and leisure.

19 The bottom of the NYS wage distribution saw their wages decline in real terms, while those at the top of the wage distribution saw wages increase. Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data ** Using CPI-U-RS. Note this is not wealth but wages, inequality will be larger when non wage income is added.

Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Current Population Survey data **

20 Recommendations: NYS should reject austerity funding (2% state funding cap) and invest in the services and infrastructure that will attract new business. Providing tax cuts to specific industries, while cutting funds to schools and local governments is shortsighted and counterproductive to economic growth. NYS needs to reexamine their industrial policy to ensure that they are not incentivizing localities to invest in tax cuts and subsidies which do not diversify their economies or increase employment. As NYS s economy shifts to leisure and hospitality, and education and health care sectors, NYS needs to ensure these jobs have livable wages with benefits that will allow these employees to provide for their families.

NYS needs to reexamine their industrial policy to ensure that they are not incentivizing localities to invest in tax cuts and subsidies which do not diversify their economies or

21 Recommendations: NYS needs to examine its tax structure to ensure there are enough funds to rebuild the economy. The Albany area is a good example of when government invests wisely in a sector, but this will take increased tax revenues. NYS needs to invest in all levels of education and training to prepare the next generation for the jobs of the future. The metro areas which have seen the greatest growth have strong higher educational institutions. Cutting funding to education will have a detrimental impact on future employment growth.

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