CHAPS Market Report 2015

Transcription

1 Market Report 205

2 Market Report Introduction 2 Overview 4. Key Statistics 4.2 Value Breakdowns by Market and Country 4.3 Drivers of CHAPS Use 5.4 CHAPS Forecasts 6 2 CHAPS Markets 7 2. Wholesale Financial Segments Overview Financial Market Infrastructure Corporate Treasury 9 Foreign Exchange 0 Money Markets and Short-Term Lending 2..4 Wholesale Interbank Retail and Commercial Segments Overview Government Housing Individuals Business-to-Business 8 3 Drivers for Market Change 9 4 CHAPS Long Range Forecasts 2 Key to Bullets + CHAPS volumes or values (or the underlying market) increasing - CHAPS volumes or values (or the underlying market) decreasing +/- Conflicting pressures on CHAPS volumes and values Annexes Annex A Tables 22 Annex B Developments in Cross-Border Payments and Correspondent Banking 24 Annex C Research Method 26 Annex D Detailed Findings 27 General Information 3 Contributors to the CHAPS Market Review Acronyms Used in this Report Contacts and Publication Information Figures CHAPS volume and value profile (204) 4 2 Estimated value breakdown of segments and markets in CHAPS (204) 4 3 Domicile of CHAPS Participants 5 4 Wholesale Financial (MT202) volume and value profile (204) 7 5 Retail and Commercial (MT03) volume and value profile (204) 3 6 Housing range payments and related statistics 6 7 Main drivers of CHAPS use in each segment 9 8 Main regulatory/political drivers of CHAPS usage 20 9 Past and projected volume trends 2 A Changes in Volumes and Values by Value Band All Traffic 22 A2 Changes in Volumes and Values by Value Band Wholesale Financial (MT202) 22 A3 Changes in Volumes and Values by Value Band Retail and Commercial (MT03) 23 D Alternative assumptions of change in the forecasts key volume drivers 27

3 Market Report Introduction Welcome to the 205 edition of the CHAPS Market Report CHAPS breaks new records Our report is: Reflective our analysis covers 204 and the first half of 205; and Forward looking you will find volume forecasts up to We are sharing the voice of the wholesale financial market In preparing this report we are grateful to our participants, partners and users who have so freely shared their data and expertise with us. This gives business context to our analysis, and injects market intelligence into our analysis and conclusions. We work closely with our participants as well as our key partners on a day-to-day basis to ensure the availability of our service and the financial stability of the system. We also actively engage with our service users and listen carefully to their views and the insights that they share with us in our independently chaired Service User Group. We are listening to your feedback When you read this report, we hope that you find that it reflects your feedback for a greater focus on the seven market segments that we primarily serve, and that the information it contains is easier to access. We are focusing on seven key user segments Our seven market segments that we recognise are: Financial Market Infrastructure; Wholesale interbank; Corporate treasury; Government; Business-to-business; Housing market; and Individuals. Volumes set a new record of 36.5 million payments. We now have 22 Direct Participants representing and settling payments for more than 5,000 institutions. Our analysis is backed by an extensive consideration of the regulatory, economic and other drivers affecting our service. This year, for example, we have particularly placed more emphasis on considering correspondent banking and cross-border payments. The CHAPS system is the financial market s international and wholesale settlement system for sterling. However, we also understand that some international providers find it cheaper and easier to meet the lower value payment needs of their overseas customers via CHAPS to avoid the need to participate in other sterling systems. CHAPS is therefore designed to meet the needs of the international and wholesale markets, although it is fair to say that service users are not and should not be prevented from using their system of choice. We continue to recognise financial stability as the key service user requirement Each day CHAPS processes around 270 billion. This keeps the market liquid, protects financial stability and plays an important role in the UK s competitiveness as well as currency performance. We are supporting more than just the housing market For the vast majority of individuals in the UK, their interaction with CHAPS is limited to when they make a payment to fund a major personal capital purchase such as a house. Even then, this is usually only where the beneficiary requires them to do so. An efficient and safe housing market is of course really important from a societal point of view and CHAPS is pleased to support this segment. The CHAPS scheme undertakes this role in two ways:. Funding, whereby prospective purchasers will use CHAPS to fund their agent in advance of completion; and 2. When the completion payment and the title are irrevocably exchanged. The CHAPS system is not designed for retail mortgage financing or mortgage loan servicing payments, and these are better catered for by the more retail and domestic oriented systems. We are seeing rapid change in the market Our research highlights the strong regulatory effects on our participants and service users. The global financial landscape is changing rapidly as the major financial institutions respond to the structural reform agenda, including ring-fencing. At the same time: Economic head-winds, low interest rates and the cost of compliance are driving down business activity, and making certain areas of business unprofitable, leading to banks subsequent withdrawal of service in these areas; and Challenger banks, payment service providers and payment institutions are taking the opportunity to enter the market, helped by regulatory measures to enhance access and competition. The main contributors are listed at the end of the report.

4 Market Report We continue to extend our access and reach Last year, we saw a further expansion of direct participation in CHAPS with the onboarding of BNY Mellon (May 204). This has continued in 205 with the most recent onboarding of BNP Paribas (July 205). BNY Mellon conducts its payment business from 35 subsidiaries, branches and representative offices around the world, and BNP Paribas operates in 75 countries around the world 2. The addition of two more major international institutions into the CHAPS community further extends the footprint and accessibility of CHAPS across the globe. Since 202, direct participation in CHAPS has grown by 22% and we continue to see strong domestic and international interest in joining CHAPS for the foreseeable future. A number of factors are driving this growth the business strategies of payment service providers within both the wholesale and challenger space, the continuing focus by the Bank of England on financial stability requirements and the persistent regulatory reform agenda with new requirements such as ring-fencing. We continue to see a strong outlook for CHAPS As we look forward to the rest of 205 and beyond, we expect to see: We are inviting you to get engaged In writing this report, we hope that the data and the insights that it contains will assist everyone involved in international and wholesale payments to better understand the market. At one end of the spectrum this should help policy makers to achieve better regulation, and, at the other end of the spectrum, it should help payment service providers to innovate new products and services for their service users. Whatever your reason for reading this report, I hope that you find what you need. If you don t then please do get in touch with us. We d be pleased to help and would welcome the feedback. Mark Hale CEO 3 CHAPS Co Continuing growth in CHAPS volumes, despite current economic and geo-political uncertainties; and The growing importance of intra-day real time payment. Last year s report identified growth in time-critical payments to manage intra-day liquidity and fund financial markets infrastructure. We predict these time-critical payments will be steadily joined by intra-day correspondent banking transfers, in response to competitive pressures in this market. We will be providing an enhanced service in 206 In June 206, CHAPS will extend its settlement day to better meet the needs of business and service users. This will make CHAPS more accessible during the day for all service users and participants in the market. At a strategic level, it will better overlap the UK business day with those of the North American markets. BNYM Annual Report 204, International Operations 2 BNP Paribas Annual Report Interim

5 Market Report Overview. Key Statistics In % growth took CHAPS to record sterling volumes of 36.5 million payments; This exceeded the previous peak in 2007 of 35.6 million payments; Values declined by 2.2 trillion (3.%) to 68.0 trillion, having peaked at 7.7 trillion in 202; primarily due to a decrease of 2.9 trillion in short-term lending activity over CHAPS; CHAPS formed 0.5% of UK total payment volumes but 92% of total sterling payment values ; and CHAPS turned over the annual UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) every 6 working days. Value profile in 204 CHAPS overall value profile changed at the extremes of the value range: At the highest end, the 2.2 trillion total value decline was isolated in transfers above 300 million, where values decreased by 0%; and In the first half of 205 (205H) Volumes grew by 3.3% compared with the first half of 204 (204H); Values declined by 4.4% compared with 204H; The value decline spread to all payment sizes above 00 million; and The volume in the mid-range ( 00,000 million) grew by 5%. See Annex A for full statistical tables..2 Value Breakdowns by Market and Country Figure 2 gives a breakdown of value transmitted over CHAPS, for markets and segments where estimates could be drawn from analysis of CHAPS settlement and tiering data, together with input from respondents in the CHAPS Market Review. Figure 2 Estimated value breakdown of segments and markets in CHAPS (204) Payments below 0 saw 32% volume growth, largely due to account switching; The mid-range ( 00,000 million) also rose in response to the strong housing market in early and mid-204; volumes in this range grew by 9%; and Volumes grew for all payment sizes below 00 million. Figure CHAPS volume and value profile (204) Individual Payment Size bn and over 300m- bn Service user segment / sub-market Share 00m- 300m 30m- 00m 0m- 30m Financial Market Infrastructure* (excluding Foreign Exchange) 4% Interbank & other Wholesale Financial 32% 3m- 0m m- 3m Average (mean).9 million million or above: 6.7% of volumes 96.7% of value Foreign Exchange Money Markets Wholesale (MT202) 25% 7% 300k- m 00k- 300k 77% below 00,000 Corporate (MT03) 3% 5% 30k- 00k 0k- 30k 53% below 0,000 Other Wholesale MT03s / Corporate Treasury (payment size > 0m) 0% 3k- 0k Median 7,000 Government* 2% Housing* % Other Retail and Commercial <0.5% Under 0 *The value of the housing, Financial Market Infrastructure (FMI) and government segments are approximate estimates. (Excluding internalised flows within Payment Service Providers (PSPs)). CHAPS Value CHAPS Volume excluding internalised flows within PSPs

6 Market Report % of values sent and received by CHAPS Direct and Indirect Participants were by participating institutions with domiciles outside the UK (i.e. the head supervisor of the banking or institutional group was outside the UK). The breakdown by region and major countries is shown in Figure 3. Figure 3 Domicile of CHAPS Participants Japan Canada Australia other Asia Pacific other / unknown Factors for decline Regulation, other risk reduction initiatives and economic intervention are changing the financial landscape, not just behaviour. The main themes (with their implications for CHAPS in blue) are: Global banks closing down activities that have been made unprofitable by low interest rates or after including the costs of risk 2 ; Banks divesting foreign subsidiaries as a condition of their financial crisis bailout, or because of more stringent regulations (for foreign banks than for domestic ones) : In the long term, banks may be sized just below the thresholds for higher regulatory demands, with reduced profits above that United States United Kingdom Corporates unable to use a single bank/location for their global treasury, leading to re-localisation of treasury (the costs of regulation are already making corporates currency hedging uneconomic) Middle East & Africa other Europe Switzerland Netherlands Germany According to value share over CHAPS system in Drivers of CHAPS Use Drivers of recent volume trends France The housing market is a key driver, driving volume growth in 204, and the housing slow-down has been largely responsible for CHAPS weaker growth in 205 so far (3.3% versus 4.4%). Low value Commercial and Retail (MT03) payments under 300 contributed % to CHAPS volume growth in 204. This was partly due to temporary forwarding of payments under the Current Account Switch Service (CASS). The expanding scope and adoption of Central Counterparties and other FMIs for settlements of financial trading, with the result that these payments are migrating from CHAPS; Standardisation in message and payment standards, bilateral agreements and settlements. Current and planned examples range from SWIFT initiatives in foreign exchange (FX) derivatives to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) Credit Transfer alignment group and the ISO initiative on real time payments: Easier migration of payments between automated methods Easier settlement on other FMI rather than CHAPS Improved access to the markets for financial products and payments from new entrants (who usually do not have legacy systems that are tied to the use of CHAPS). This comes from current and planned regulatory intervention and existing government support. CASS started in September 203, and CHAPS is a temporary solution for a small fraction of payment forwarding by several PSPs. Faster Payments will be used instead in due course, and volumes of these small payments in CHAPS were already growing more slowly by 205 H. 2 Reported by respondents in the CHAPS Market Review and in the financial press.

7 Market Report Potential imminent disruptive change in cross-border payments, examined in more detail in Annex B: Remaining cross-border traffic in CHAPS will gradually move from overnight batches processed early in the day to real time The net effects of these are generally negative on CHAPS use, though there are opportunities to carry settlements between the new entrants and their counterparties. As the financial sector fragments, payments will also appear in CHAPS that were previously internalised within the global banks. With regard to the established and emerging alternatives, CHAPS will retain a greater share of higher value transfers, due to its reputation as a trusted payment system..4 CHAPS Forecasts The volume projection for 205 is 37.7 million, an increase of 3.% from 36.5 million in 204; and Two alternative scenarios reflect the range of potential outcomes of various influences on future volumes. These include adoption of the Faster Payments Scheme Limited s New Access Model, rises in its scheme limit, and economic growth. The alternative scenarios project between 35 and 39 million CHAPS payments in 205. By 2020, this range widens to million. Factors for growth Fundamental growth in the long-term reasons to use CHAPS continues to outpace any decline in volumes due to new developments: UK s economic and population growth: GDP growth remains unsteady but has not been negative since 202 Q4; Social expectations of faster service and real time payments; International trade and movement of people; and CHAPS as a backstop method for contingency and exceptions.