Item: Components 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools (DST) and Simulation Exercises

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1 Item: Components 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools (DST) and Simulation Exercises

2 Component 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools (DST) and Simulation Exercises New component, previously with Component 1.1 Workplan developed by Caroline Dube and presented to ExCom in July 2014 New project team formed following Caroline s resignation: Supervisor: F. Rosso, (K. Sumption interim modeling) Component manager: E. Calduch Negro (M. Mclaws interim modeling) Budget 61,900 Euro (consultancies plus travel) ExCom87

3 Contingency Plan Development Contingency Plan Decision Support Tools (DST) Economic assessments Simulation exercises Modelling tools Consultation

4 Component 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools (DST) and Simulation Exercises Objective :to improve the ability of Member States and Europe as a whole to respond to a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion by using modelling and decision-support tools as well as simulation exercises to develop and test their FMD contingency plans and outbreak response. OUTPUTS (EXPECTED RESULTS): 3 22% 2 39% 1 39% 1. A European modelling network composed of policy makers and model users from all interested MS with direct access to FMD models and model developers linked to other international modelling groups. 2. Resources for training on disease modelling and economic analysis in decision-making and simulation exercise design 3. A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation exercise design.

5 Output 1. European modelling network Discussion paper drafted circulate to focus group Initial meeting at EuFMD Open Session (30 October) Network objectives to be endorsed. Draft: 1. Promote use of models to inform contingency planning for FMD in Europe (ie applied research) through enhanced understanding a) amongst current users (through external validation of models) as well as non-users 2. Forum for discussion and technical support 3. Identification of decision support tools expected to provide the most value to decision makers. Support their development (through EuFMD-FAR &/or network ExCom88

6 Output 1. European modelling network Initial activities proposed: 1. Description of currently available resources: models and expertise 2. Webinar/seminar series- network members to describe current research 3. Develop a common project (subject to interest & support) European disease spread model (cross-border spread) Modeling framework(s) that can be readily adapted to different countries Studies to identify key national-level parameters (ie what specific national-level data is really essential for model input?) Studies to explore optimal control measures for typical European countries, ie representative of different husbandry systems etc Model comparison studies to validate existing models

7 Output 2. Resources for training: modelling, and simulation exercise design E-learning on epidemiological modeling has been developed Modeling workshop on the use of epidemiological modelling and socio-economic analysis in FMD contingency planning (held 29 Sept-3 Oct 2014)

8 Output 2. Resources for training: modelling, and simulation exercise design Future ideas and plans: 1. Development of Guidelines: For testing Contingency Plans (ie simulation exercises) 2. Review of resources available for simulation exercises and development of a website for access to these. 3. Accessible and easy-to-use tools / calculators: to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD emergencies. to calculate resources required to control an outbreak (ie, number of vets, slaughter capacity, vaccine doses )

9 Output 3 A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation exercise design. To link persons facing similar challenges throughout EuFMD member states and work together find solutions Through internet (website, webinar, ), meetings... Sharing technical resources, ideas and solutions First step is to identify interested members, then identify wants and needs to assist their work. Modeling workshop, FVO Meeting, existing reports, EuFMD training focal points Discussion at modeling workshop: 17 participants from 11 countries Network already formed through FVO? (will work with FVO to identify where EuFMD can best provide support)

10 Output 3 A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation exercise design. Q 13 Modeling workshop feedback form: How can we help you more after the course has finished?

11 CP Issues: from discussion at modeling workshop Oct 2014 Issue Shortage of resources within Veterinary Services for emergency preparedness caused by lack of awareness of importance Contingency plans drafted but not tested or not all aspects tested: Stakeholders Neighbouring countries Local levels resources required Solution An accessible and easy-to-use tool to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD emergencies could be developed to help to raise awareness. Raise awareness about importance of testing Development of Guidelines for testing CP (simulation exercise and other) include best practices such as stakeholder involvement, include neighbouring countries, involvement of national and local levels Tool to calculate resources required (ie. number of vets, slaughter capacity, vaccine doses )

12 Planned Program PROGRESS UPDATE AND REVISED PROGRAM (88 TH Session, October 2014) Planning Implementation Comments Activity Events J J A S O N D J F M A M J 1.1 Establish focus group with regular meetings (VC in some cases) in preparation for workshops, Open Session and discussion paper ongoing 1.2 Review of available models in MS and internationally and discussion paper ongoing 2 on the need for an EU-level model or other steps forward needed Oversight of EuFMD funded modelling projects to ensure in-line with ongoing Ongoing modelling program Workshop 2 on the development of the European modelling network. 1. To be confirmed 2.1 Review of resources available in MS for simulation exercise design and development of a website for access to documentation and processes for exercise development. Online resource Resources for training on disease modeling Ongoing Development of Guidelines on validity testing CPs/simulation exercises Document Development of an online accessible and easy-to-use tool / calculator/model to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD emergencies to assist in raising awareness on the importance of contingency planning. 3.1 Survey of needs of managers in contingency planning in MS for: exercise design, evaluation of emergency plans and economics in decision-making. Online resource Establish network of managers in contingency planning Ongoing Develop a repository of information related to simulation exercise development for use by MS. Online resource.. To be discussed on the 16 th Oct.(Grange)

13 Thank You