Equity Research DAILY COMMENT
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1 Equity Research DAILY COMMENT 01 COMMUNIQUE LABORATORY ONE-V, $0.26 October 24, 2014 Rating: STRONG BUY Target Price: $1.25 Market Capitalization: $17.1M Risk Profile: SPECULATIVE TECHNOLOGY IP LICENSING Ralph Garcea, P.Eng, MBA Analyst Chris Thompson Associate COMPANY PROFILE 01 Communique is a technology-based company that develops and markets products and services in the remote access, web conferencing, and online collaboration markets. The Company protects its intellectual property through a number of patents, which it enforces through licensing and royalty payments. ONE s suite of products includes its remote access offering I'm InTouch, its online meeting offering I'm InTouchMeeting, and its remote support offering I'm OnCall. The Company was established in 1992 and has its head office in Mississauga, Ontario. PRICE CHART Source: BigCharts.com REVISIONS Rating/Target Revised Prior Rating Unchanged Strong Buy Target Unchanged $1.25 Revenue (F14E) Unchanged $0.29 EBITDA (F14E) Unchanged ($1.87) EPS (F14E) Unchanged ($0.03) FINANCIAL SUMMARY Last Price $0.260 Price Target $1.25, (+380.8%) Div/ Yield $0.00/0.0% 52-week Range $ $0.60 S/O Basic (M) 65.7 S/O F/D (M) 68.0 Market Float (%) 84.5 Market Cap (M) $17.1 Net Debt (M) ($1.6) Enterprise Value (M) $15.5 Avg. Weekly Vol. (M) 0.22 Fiscal YE 31-Oct ONE PROVIDES UPDATE ON CTXS PATENT LITIGATION EVENTS ONE announced that it has reached an agreement with Citrix Systems (CTXS-US, Not Rated) whereby each party will withdraw their claims against each other with respect to Citrix s GoToMeeting product and 01 Communique s I m InTouch Meeting product. IMPLICATIONS Positive. The agreement should streamline the upcoming proceedings, as they will now be focused on one product GoToMyPC which is ~25% of CTXS SaaS revenue. By removing the CTXS case in California, ONE will also save on litigation costs. ONE is now preparing for the upcoming claim construction and tutorial scheduled for November in Ohio, and the completion of expert discovery shortly thereafter on January 16, We estimate that this case could go to trial in the spring 2015 timeframe. ONE ended FQ314 with $1.6M in cash. Cash burn is now about $350K/qtr ONE has enough cash to pursue the CTXS case and defend its IP until FQ415 without the need to raise additional capital. CTXS has no other avenues to challenge the patent (estoppel), and US$1.8B+ in cash we believe the odds of a settlement increase as a trial date moves closer. CATALYSTS The upcoming catalysts for ONE include the impending claim construction and tutorial scheduled for mid-november; the expert discovery in early January 2015; and other potential litigations initiated through partnerships. VALUATION ONE is currently trading at a F2016E EV/Sales of 1.7x versus industry comparables at 3.3x on C2015E. Thesis: 01 Communique s key patents related to Remote Access and Remote Support provide revenue opportunities from a licensing and royalties perspective. Though the LOGM verdict/appeal went against ONE, we believe that ONE can build on its Bomgar settlement to license its IP. ONE is also in the midst of litigation proceedings with CTXS. Forecasts F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014E F2015E F2016E Revenue ($M) $0.48 $0.93 $1.26 $0.29 $0.32 $10.21 EBITDA ($M) ($3.23) ($2.54) ($3.21) ($1.87) ($1.88) $6.75 EPS (FD) ($0.05) ($0.04) ($0.05) ($0.03) ($0.02) $0.11 EPS (basic) ($0.05) ($0.04) ($0.05) ($0.03) ($0.02) $0.12 CFPS ($0.04) ($0.03) ($0.03) ($0.04) ($0.02) $0.11 P/E NM NM NM NM NM 2.4x EV/Sales NM 16.4x 12.1x 52.1x 47.4x 1.7x EV/EBITDA NM NM NM NM NM 2.5x See back page for analyst certification and disclosures All figures in C$ unless otherwise noted.
2 ONE PROVIDES UPDATE ON CTXS PATENT LITIGATION FOCUS ON GOTOMYPC ONE announced that it has reached an agreement with Citrix Systems whereby each party will withdraw their claims against each other with respect to Citrix s GoToMeeting product and 01 Communique s I m InTouch Meeting product. The agreement should streamline the upcoming proceedings as they will now be focused on one product GoToMyPC which is ~25% of CTXS SaaS revenue. ONE is seeking past damages going back to August 9, 2005 (when the 479 Patent was issued), as well as a permanent injunction prohibiting infringement. By removing the CTXS case in California, ONE will also save on litigation costs. ONE is now preparing for the upcoming claim construction and tutorial scheduled for November in Ohio, and the completion of expert discovery shortly thereafter on January 16, We estimate that this case could go to trial in the spring 2015 timeframe. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CITRIX CASE With regards to CTXS inter partes re-examination of the 479 Patent, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) recently issued a Rule 36 Judgment affirming the US Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) Patent Trial and Appeal Board s (PTAB) decision that ONE s 479 Patent is valid. On May 30, 2014, CTXS filed a complaint in the US District Court Central District of California that ONE s I'm InTouch Meeting product allegedly infringes CTXS US Patent #7,219,233 which is core to the GoToMeeting product. CTXS also requested a declaratory judgment (DJ) against ONE alleging that its GoToMeeting product offering does not infringe the 479 Patent. An amended complaint was filed on July 31, 2014, dropping the request for a DJ and alleging infringement of two additional CTXS patents (#8,127,019 and #8,325,896). As part of the agreement these claims are being withdrawn by CTXS. CITRIX POTENTIAL REVENUE We estimate that ~70% of CTXS Online Services (SaaS) revenue, which is on a US$ M/yr run-rate (CTXS just reported Q314 SaaS revs of US$165M), could infringe ONE s patents. This includes products such as GoToMeeting and GoToMyPC. We attribute $15-30M/yr in revenue to these infringements, depending on the royalty rate, for the next nine years. For past damages, we estimate that CTXS has generated ~$1.7B in SaaS-related revenue since mid- 2005, which could result in a minimum lump sum payment to ONE of $50-150M. EXHIBIT 1 CITRIX SAAS REVENUE Citrix (CTXS-US) (9-months) SaaS Revenue $99.1 $148.8 $213.7 $260.1 $308.2 $360.6 $430.2 $511.3 $582.9 $ Online Services Source: Citrix website We continue to believe that ONE has a strong case against Citrix, which could lead to a settlement in 2016 or sooner. With no other avenues to challenge the patent (estoppel), and US$1.8B+ in cash and investments (as of September 30, 2014), the odds of a settlement increase as a trial date moves closer. 2
3 CASH As at July 31, 2014, ONE ended the quarter with $1.6M in cash and cash equivalents. Cash burn this quarter was ~$405K but the Company plans cost savings of $75K/qtr over the next year to help conserve cash. As part of the cost-cutting focus, directors and management have agreed to a reduction in the cash component of their compensation. Cash burn is now about $350K/qtr ONE has enough cash to pursue the CTXS case and defend its IP until FQ415 without the need to raise additional capital. RATING AND TARGET We reiterate our Strong Buy rating and maintain our target price of $1.25. EXHIBIT 2 GLOBAL IP LICENSING COMPARABLES Local Price Div. Mkt. Cap. Revenue (USD) P/E EV/Sales EV/EBITDA GLOBAL IP LICENSING COMPS Ticker 23-Oct Target Yield (US$M) C14E C15E C14E C15E C14E C15E C14E C15E 01 Communique Laboratory Inc ONE-V NMF NMF NMF 7.9 NMF NMF Sensio Technologies Inc SIO-V NMF NMF 11.4 Wilan Inc WILN-US % Qualcomm Inc QCOM-US % 125,936 27,326 29, Dolby Laboratories Inc DLB-N , Rovi Corp ROVI-US , Interdigital Inc IDCC-US % 1, Tessera Technologies Inc TSRA-US % 1, Acacia Research Corp ACTG-US % NMF 19.7 Rpx Corp RPXC-US Reald Inc RLD-N NMF NMF Dts Inc DTSI-US Virnetx Holding Corp VHC-A Vringo Inc VRNG-US ,234 NMF NMF NMF 0.0 NMF NMF D-box Technologies Inc DBO-T NMF NMF Deq Systems Corp DEQ-V N/A N/A NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF Source: Thomson One, Price Targets are consensus except for SIO-V, WIN-T and ONE-T Mean (excluding ONE-V) 18.0x 15.6x 4.0x 3.3x 9.6x 9.5x Mean 18.0x 15.6x 4.0x 3.6x 9.6x 9.5x Median 14.5x 13.9x 3.3x 3.4x 9.6x 9.0x 3
4 RESEARCH DISCLOSURES Analyst Certification The Global Maxfin Capital Inc ( GMCI ) research analyst whose name appears on the front page of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal views about the company and the securities that are the subject of this report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report and (ii) no part of the research analyst s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in this report. Analyst Ethics As a condition of employment, analysts are required to adhere to the Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct of The CFA Institute. Analyst Trading GMCI permits analysts to own and trade in the securities and/or derivatives of those companies under their research coverage, subject to the following restrictions. No trades can be executed in anticipation of the initiation of coverage or a change in recommendation, until 48 hours after the dissemination of such information to our clients. A transaction against an analyst s recommendation can only be executed for a reason unrelated to the outlook for the stock and with the prior approval of the Chief Compliance Officer. Conflicts of Interest The research analyst and/or associates who prepared this report are compensated based on the overall profitability of GMCI, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking and related services. In the normal course of its business, GMCI or its affiliates may provide financial advisory and/or investment banking services for the issuers mentioned in this report in return for remuneration and may seek to become engaged for these services from any of the issuers mentioned in this report. GMCI may buy from or sell to customers the securities of issuers mentioned in this report on a principal basis. GMCI, and/or its respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell the securities discussed herein or in related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Dissemination of Research GMCI uses its best efforts to disseminate its equity research to all clients on a timely and effective basis in electronic form, via fax, mail and through its website ( Please contact your GMCI representative for more information. Equity Research Rating System The rating system is based on the stock s expected absolute total return over the next 6 to 12 months. STRONG BUY is expected to produce a total return of 25% or more, BUY a total return of 10% to 25%, HOLD a total return of 0% to 10%, and SELL a negative total return. The risk rating is a summary measure of the authoring analyst's subjective assessment of the underlying fundamental risks of the issuer and the business environment in which it operates. In general, we regard large capitalization stocks with a consistent dividend history as being at the low end of the risk continuum and small capitalization early stage companies as speculative. Our rating system has four categories: LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH and SPECULATIVE. 4
5 General Disclosures ONE-V The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of GMCI as of the publication date of this report and are subject to change without notice. GMCI endeavours to ensure that its research reports are compiled or derived from sources that it believes are reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, GMCI makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. This report is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Applicable Disclosures for Issuer (01 Communique) (Yes / No ): ONE-V 1) As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of issuance of this research report or the end of the second most recent month if the issue date is less than 10 calendar days after the end of the most recent month, GMCI and its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more of any class of the issuer's equity securities. 2) The authoring analyst and/or an associate of the analyst are long/short in any of the issuer s securities directly or through derivative. 3) A GMCI partner, director or officer has provided services to the issuer for remuneration during the preceding 12 months other than investment advisory or trading services. 4) GMCI has provided investment banking services for the issuer during the 12 months preceding the date of issuance of the report. 5) List name(s) of any partner, director, officer, employee or agent of GMCI, who is also an officer, director or employee of the issuer. 6) The authoring analyst has visited the material operations of the issuer. 7) The authoring analyst received reimbursement for travel expenses. Distribution of Recommendations Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Under Review Suspended The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete or inaccurate. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. GMCI may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for certain of the companies mentioned herein, and may receive remuneration for its services. GMCI and/or its principals, officers, directors, representatives, associates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained herein be referred to without in each case the prior written consent of GMCI. 5
6 CORPORATE DIRECTORY Equity Research Ralph Garcea, P. Eng, MBA Managing Director, Head of Equity Research Tel: (647) D. Joseph Mackay, CA, CFA Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst Tel: (647) Chris Thompson, CFA, P. Eng, MBA Equity Research Associate Tel: (647) Institutional Sales & Trading Fabiene Evans, CPA, CA Managing Director, Head of Institutional Sales Tel: (416) Steve Duenkler, CFA Managing Director, Head of Institutional Trading Tel: (416) Peter Byrne Senior Vice President, Institutional Trading Tel: (647) Nick Savona Senior Vice President, Institutional Trading Tel: (416) Jonathan Samahin, CFA, CMT Senior Vice President, Institutional Sales and Trading Tel: (647) Investment Banking Dean McPherson, MBA, CFA Managing Director, Head of Investment Banking Tel: (647) Lily Tran Analyst, Investment Banking Tel: (647) Electronic Trading Steve Burns Vice President, Electronic Trading Tel: (647) Kent Learoyd Vice President, Electronic Trading Tel: (647) Jennifer Russell Syndication Tel: (647) Bay Street, Suite 800 Toronto, ON M5H 2S6 6
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