EUROPE S LEADING ONLINE FASHION DESTINATION. Capital Markets Day: 2014 Recap & Business Outlook 25 March 2015

Transcription

1 EUROPE S LEADING ONLINE FASHION DESTINATION Capital Markets Day: 2014 Recap & Business Outlook 25 March 2015

2 WELCOME TO OUR CAPITAL MARKETS DAY 2015 David Schneider Brand, Fashion & Assortment Robert Gentz Tech, Strategy & Business Development Rubin Ritter Commercial Business, Finance (CFO) & Operations 1

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS REVIEW 2014: Strong position for future investment INVESTMENTS INTO CORE BUSINESS: Drive growth through several initiatives INVESTMENTS INTO LONG-TERM GROWTH: From classical wholesale to fashion platform 2

4 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 1 FY 2014 OUTPERFORMANCE creates the foundation for future investment 2 STRONG CUSTOMER KPIS lead the way for continued market share gains CONTINUED OPERATING LEVERAGE AND CLEAR DACH PROFITABILITY confirm our long-term margin outlook 3 4 LONG TERM AMBITION of profitable growth in 20-25% corridor, supported by 2014 results 3

5 1 FY 2014 OUTPERFORMANCE LAYS THE FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE INVESTMENTS Strong revenue growth outperforms market Operating leverage drives surge in 2014 profitability Substantial cash generation (Revenue in m) (EBIT margin excl. SBC¹ in percent) (Total free cash flow 2 in m) as percent of revenue 2,214 (9.7%) 5.6% 1, % 123 (6.2%) (170) (1) Excluding equity-settled stock based compensation costs ( SBC ) of 19.8m in (2) Includes operating cash flow ( 175m) less investing cash flow (- 52m) in

6 2 ZALANDO CONTINUES TO GAIN MARKET SHARE Group revenue (in m) DACH revenue (in m) DACH Rest of Europe and Others 1 1,056 1,234 1,762 2,214 FY/13 FY/ Q4/ Q4/14 60% 56% Rest of Europe revenue (in m) % % FY/13 FY/14 Q4/13 Q4/14 FY/13 FY/14 Q4/13 Q4/14 (1) Segment Others mainly includes revenues from Zalando Lounge, as well as two outlet stores in Berlin and Frankfurt. 5

7 2 DRIVEN BY STRONG CUSTOMER KPIs Active customers (in m) a Average orders per active customer (LTM in #) Population of 425m in Europe a Average basket size after returns 1 (n ) Q4/13 Q4/ Q4/13 Q4/14 a GMV per active customer 2 (in ) Fashion savvy customers spend ~ 1,500p.a Q4/13 Q4/14 Q4/13 Q4/14 (1) Defined as the transactional revenue (incl. VAT and transactional volume of Partner Program) after cancellations or returns divided by the number of orders. (2) GMV (gross merchandise volume) per active customer = average orders per active customer (LTM in #) x average basket size after returns (in ). 6

8 3 OPERATING LEVERAGE DRIVES GROUP PROFITABILITY, WITH DACH LEADING THE WAY TO TARGET MARGINS Group EBIT profitability EBIT margin (excl. SBC 1 ) DACH consistently profitable EBIT margin (excl. SBC 1 ) - 109m 82m 13m 66m 9.9% 0.8% 6.7% 9.4% 12.3% 3.7% 2.4% FY/13 FY/14 Q4/13 Q4/14 Rest of Europe profitable in Q4 EBIT margin (excl. SBC 1 ) 6.1% (6.2%) (15.7%) (1.3%) (4.7%) FY/13 FY/14 Q4/13 Q4/14 FY/13 FY/14 Q4/13 Q4/14 (1) Excluding equity-settled stock based compensation costs ( SBC ) of 4.6m in Q and 19.8m for FY

9 3 LEVERAGE IN COST OF SALES Cost of Sales (in % of revenue) % Gross profit in % of revenue 54.0% 53.8% 59.4% Increased negotiation leverage Flexibility in sourcing structure (2.9pp) ~(2.5pp) 56.5% 2011 / 2012 levels 46.0% 46.2% 40.6% 43.5% Long-Term Target Model Note: All cost items are excluding equity settled SBC costs. 8

10 3 LEVERAGE IN FULFILLMENT COSTS Fulfillment cost (in % of revenue) Efficiency gains Ramp-up, e.g. express option 26.5% (0.9pp) 25.6% (1.6pp) 23.9% (1.7pp) 22.3% ~( pp) Low 20% s Long-Term Target Model Note: All cost items are excluding equity settled SBC costs. 9

11 3 LEVERAGE IN MARKETING COSTS Marketing cost (in % of revenue) Improvements in efficiency m Marketing cost with higher share of returning customers 26.7% (4.1pp) 22.6% (5.0pp) 17.6% (4.4pp) DACH already at target 13.2% ~( pp) High single/ low double digit Note: 136m 262m 310m ~ constant 291m Long-Term Target Model All cost items are excluding equity settled SBC costs. 10

12 RESULTS CONFIRM LONG-TERM MARGIN OUTLOOK Historical Target Target Model Cost of sales 59.4% 56.5% 54% range (~2011/2012 level) Fulfillment costs (23.9%) (22.3%) Low 20% s range Marketing costs (17.6%) (13.2%) High single / low double digit % Admin. expenses other (5.3%) (4.4%) ~4% (~2011 level) Note: Excluding equity settled SBC costs. EBIT (6.2%) 3.7% DACH already at ~7% in 2014! 11

13 4 OUTLOOK FOR FY 2015 FOCUS ON PROFITABLE GROWTH, OFF TO A GOOD START IN Q Revenue growth 20-25% EBIT 1 margin broadly around strong level achieved in 2014 Investment backloaded Continued focus on operational capital efficiency (1) EBIT including equity-settled stock based compensation costs. 12

14 Q&A 13

15 ABO SHAREHOLDER TRANSACTION, WITH COMPANY SUPPORT ABO Coordinated, overnight transaction, 20 days ahead of lock-up expiration Launch & pricing March 10, 20 days ahead of regular lock-up expiration on 30-Mar 2 Selling shareholders Early stage shareholders Global Founders, Holtzbrinck, Access, and Rocket Internet. Some option holders 1 after exercise of options granted as part of compensation. Total of 18.4m shares or ~7.5% of share capital sold Extended lock-up Lock-up extension Free float 64% of total shares locked-up through 28-Jun-2015, underlining support for Zalando Selling shareholders & option holders, plus non-selling shareholders (Kinnevik, Bestseller, founders) extended lock-up through 28-Jun Significant step-up in free float, improving liquidity in Zalando shares Post ABO closing 3 Up to 27% 31-Mar Up to 36% (1) Option holders sold 0.5m shares (or ~0.2% of share capital); includes Co-CEO Rubin Ritter, who sold 220,660 shares (corresponding to 5% of all options granted to him). (2) Lock-up until and including stated date. (3) Free float percentage represents shares not under lock-up. Includes 7.5% additional free float from ABO, plus free float from partial lock-up release (50%) for shareholders that did not sign extended lock-up. 14

16 TABLE OF CONTENTS REVIEW 2014: Strong position for future investment INVESTMENTS INTO CORE BUSINESS: Drive growth through several initiatives INVESTMENTS INTO LONG-TERM GROWTH: From classical wholesale to fashion platform 15

17 WE REMAIN CONVINCED THAT ONLINE FASHION IS A LONG-TERM GROWTH OPPORTUNITY Total Fashion Market: Europe ~ 420bn CAGR: 1% Online Fashion: Europe ~ 43bn CAGR: 15% 69% of fashion spend is Internet-influenced 1 5% Zalando market share of German shoe market CAGR: 63% Source: Euromonitor International, February 2015, 2014 values based on actuals and estimates; fixed exchange rates. Data for Europe (excl. Russia) incl. apparel and footwear, bags and luggage, jewellery and watches. All market figures inclusive of sales tax. Company information. (1) Nielsen (Jan 2013): Every breakthrough product needs audience. 16

18 AND ZALANDO IS IN THE POLE POSITION Clear market leader Tailored, scalable technology and fulfillment infrastructure Growth at scale, profitable, well capitalized Great team in place 17

19 WE WILL KEEP THE FOOT ON THE GAS 18

20 CONTINUE TO DRIVE GROWTH THROUGH SEVERAL INITIATIVES CONVENIENCE: faster delivery, more delivery options, easier returns MOBILE FIRST: rethink processes from mobile perspective & increase speed ACTIVITY & LOYALTY: launch tailored customer programs SPECIFIC MARKET PUSH: accelerate growth trajectory in selected markets SPECIALTY CATEGORIES: women sports,underwear,plus sizes, maternity, petite VALUE FOR MONEY: offer customers attractive entry price points STRENGTHEN BRAND PARTNER- SHIPS: joint marketing, etc. Exciting the Customer Italy 19

21 LISTENING TO OUR CUSTOMERS: SPECIALTY CATEGORIES WOMEN SPORTS: perform with style Market size for total sports of 48bn 1 Healthy lifestyle and fashion meets sportswear trend 20% of our female customers buy sports articles, but spend > 130 p.a. on sports UNDERWEAR: everyone needs it Market size of 20bn 1 Attractive order economics: high NOS share, repurchases, lower returns and discounts <10% of our customers buy underwear, but spend > 160 p.a. on category OTHER SPECIALTY CATEGORIES: plus sizes, maternity and petite (1) Euromonitor International, February 2015, 2014 values based on actuals and estimates; fixed exchange rates. Data for Europe (excl. Russia) incl. apparel and footwear. All market figures inclusive of sales tax. Company information. 20

22 LISTENING TO OUR CUSTOMERS: VALUE FOR MONEY VALUE FOR MONEY: from depending on product category and season FAST FASHION ROLL OUT: win & retain customers of young age Topshop became a top 5 brand at Zalando within first weeks in our shops Freshness & trendiness: changing collections every 4-6 weeks to respond quickly to new trends Shorter lead times of 1-3 months: lower inventory risk as we buy what we sell PRIVATE LABEL: High unbranded demand in low price points 21

23 TABLE OF CONTENTS REVIEW 2014: Strong position for future investment INVESTMENTS INTO CORE BUSINESS: Drive growth through several initiatives INVESTMENTS INTO LONG-TERM GROWTH: From classical wholesale to fashion platform 23

24 TODAY WE ARE AN ONLINE FASHION STORE CONNECTING PEOPLE WITH FASHION FASHION ADVICE 24

25 TOMORROW WE ARE TURNING INTO A SHOPPING CITY CONNECTING PEOPLE WITH FASHION FASHION ADVICE 25

26 CONNECTING PEOPLE WITH FASHION CUSTOMERS BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 26

27 CONNECTING PEOPLE WITH FASHION CUSTOMERS FROM RETAIL BACKED BY TECH TO A MULTI- PRODUCT FASHION TECH COMPANY BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 27

28 TODAY ONLINE FASHION STORE CUSTOMERS I WANT A SHOP THAT SELECTS THE BEST FASHION PRODUCTS AND MAKES IT EASY FOR ME TO BUY THEM. I AM USED TO THE WHOLESALE MODEL AND WANT TO DO IT ONLINE AS WELL. BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 28

29 TODAY ONLINE FASHION STORE CUSTOMERS FASHION STORE ALLOW CUSTOMERS TO CONVENIENTLY BUY SELECTED FASHION PRODUCTS. BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 29

30 TODAY SHOPPING CLUB CUSTOMERS I ONLY BUY DISCOUNTS. I NEED TO GET RID OF SURPLUS STOCK! BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 30

31 TODAY ZALANDO LOUNGE CUSTOMERS ZALANDO LOUNGE MATCH PRICE HUNTERS WITH SURPLUS STOCK. BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 31

32 FOR EXAMPLE CONNECTING CUSTOMERS AND STYLISTS CUSTOMERS I DON T KNOW WHAT TO BUY TO LOOK GREAT! I KNOW WHAT MAKES A GREAT LOOK! BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 32

33 FOR EXAMPLE CURATED SHOPPING CUSTOMERS CURATED SHOPPING MATCH SHOPPERS WITH THE RIGHT STYLISTS. BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 33

34 FOR EXAMPLE CONNECTING CUSTOMERS AND BRANDS CUSTOMERS I WANT TO SEE MORE OF MY FAVORITE BRAND I WANT TO HAVE MORE CONTROL OF MY BRAND BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 34

35 FOR EXAMPLE BRAND SOLUTIONS CUSTOMERS BRAND SOLUTIONS ENABLE BRANDS TO HAVE FULL CONTROL OF BRAND EQUITY. BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 35

36 FOR EXAMPLE CONNECTING CUSTOMERS AND ADVERTISERS CUSTOMERS I WANT TO GET INFO ABOUT MY FAVOURITE BRAND. I WANT TO ADVERTISE MY PRODUCTS. I HELP BRANDS TO ADVERTISE. BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 36

37 FOR EXAMPLE ADVERTISING SERVICES CUSTOMERS ADVERTISING SERVICES ALLOW BRANDS HIGHLY TARGETED ADVERTISING. BRANDS INTERMEDIATES 37

38 OUR VISION CONNECTING FASHION AND PEOPLE CUSTOMER I JUST SPOTTED THIS AMAZING BAG ON CHIARA FERRAGNI S INSTAGRAM ACCOUNT. ZALANDO WELL, LET ME SEE WHICH ONE IT 3.4m followers 38

39 OUR VISION CONNECTING FASHION AND PEOPLE ZALANDO IT S THE DREW BAG FROM CHLOÉ, SNAKE LEATHER AT A COST OF 2,200 CUSTOMER THIS IS NICE. CAN YOU SHOW ME SOME DIFFERENT VERSIONS. 39

40 OUR VISION CONNECTING FASHION AND PEOPLE ZALANDO THE ICONIC DREW BAG COMES IN ALL KINDS OF DIFFERENT COMBINATIONS HAVE A LOOK HERE. CUSTOMER I LIKE THE RED ONE. BUT UHH I NEED IT IN 20 MINUTES. 40

41 OUR VISION CONNECTING FASHION AND PEOPLE ZALANDO YOU CAN GET IT AT THIS SHOP. THEY HAVE ONE MORE IN STOCK. CUSTOMER THAT S GREAT, BUT I DON T HAVE TIME NOW, CAN YOU DELIVER IT TO ME? 41

42 OUR VISION CONNECTING FASHION AND PEOPLE ZALANDO SURE, WE CAN SEND A BIKE MESSENGER AND IT WILL BE WITH YOU IN 19 MINUTES. CUSTOMER PERFECT, GO AHEAD. AND THANK YOU! 42

43 ZALANDO SHOPPING CITY: NEXT STEPS CUSTOMERS EXTENDED DATA CAPABILITIES OPEN API FOR DEVELOPERS INTERNATIONAL TECH HUBS SELECTIVE BOLT-ON M&A CURATED SHOPPING SINGLE PURPOSE APPS FROM CONVERSION TO ENGAGEMENT PLATFORM ACCESS FOR BRANDS STOCK INTEGRATION ADVANCED ANALYTICS STYLIST SERVICES AD SERVICES BRANDS INTERMEDIATES DEEP DIVES: ZALANDO EXCITING THE CUSTOMER CURATED SHOPPING BRAND SOLUTIONS ADVERTISING SERVICES 43

44 Q&A 44

45 DISCLAIMER These materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale or a solicitation of an offer to purchase securities of Zalando SE (together with its subsidiaries, the Company ) in any jurisdiction. The distribution of this presentation may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions and persons into whose possession any document or other information referred to herein comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the Company and/or the industry in which the Company operates. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words believes, expects, predicts, intends, projects, plans, estimates, aims, foresees, anticipates, targets, and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources, are solely opinions and forecasts which are uncertain and subject to risks. Actual events may differ significantly from any anticipated development due to a number of factors, including without limitation, changes in general economic conditions, in particular economic conditions in Germany, changes affecting interest rate levels, changes in competition levels, changes in laws and regulations, environmental damages, the potential impact of legal proceedings and actions and the Group s ability to achieve operational synergies from past or future acquisitions. The Company does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements in this presentation are free from errors nor does it accept any responsibility for the future accuracy of the opinions expressed in this presentation or any obligation to update the statements in this presentation to reflect subsequent events. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are made only as of the date hereof. Neither the delivery of this presentation nor any further discussions of the Company with any of the recipients thereof shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the affairs of the Company since such date. Consequently, the Company does not undertake any obligation to review, update or confirm investors' expectations or estimates or to release publicly any revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect events that occur or circumstances that arise in relation to the content of the presentation. This presentation contains summary information only and does not purport to be comprehensive and is not intended to be (and should not be used as) the basis of any analysis or other evaluation. In addition, the information in this presentation is subject to change. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, any information, including projections, estimates, targets and opinions, contained herein, and no liability whatsoever is accepted as to any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein. 45