minutes I. Summary of Presentation San Francisco County Kick-off Meeting: CCAMP/OPC Study Wednesday, February 23, 2011, 2:00-4:00 PM

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1 San Francisco County Kick-off Meeting: CCAMP/OPC Study Wednesday, February 23, 2011, 2:00-4:00 PM LOCATION: San Francisco City Hall, Room Dr. Carlton B. Goodlett Place San Francisco, CA ATTENDEES: Sherry Chan, Engineer, URS Fran Filice, Manager, Capital Planning, San Francisco Department of Public Works Craig Conner, Flood Risk Manager, US Army Corps of Engineers Robert Hanley, Chief Supervisor, City County San Francisco Steve La Plante, Emergency Operations Manager, Department of Emergency Management Stacey Camilla, Deputy Risk Manager, City County San Francisco Chris Berkley, Consultant, URS Linda Yeung, Deputy City Administrator, SF Administrations Office Franceska Ramos, Outreach & External Affairs, FEMA Region IX Stu Townsley, Flood Risk Program Manager, US Army Corps of Engineers Gregor Blackburn, Branch Chief, Floodplain Management & Insurance, FEMA Region IX Greg Brasvel, IT Project Division, San Francisco Department of Public Works Ed Curtis, Sr. Engineer, FEMA Region IX Vince Geronimo, Baker AECOM Darryl Hatheway, BakerAECOM Lisa Messano, BakerAECOM James Johnston, BakerAECOM Wendy Chang, BakerAECOM Justin Vandever, BakerAECOM PURPOSE: Discovery / Kick-off Meeting for the CCAMP/OPC Study I. Summary of Presentation Ed Curtis, FEMA NFIP is relatively new for San Francisco. NFIP program established in Communities agree to join the program with the goal of reducing flood risk and development within the floodplain. FEMA makes available flood insurance to communities.

2 RiskMAP ties coastal study into the nationwide program. RiskMAP follows the map modernization program, which was a nationwide effort to develop digital flood mapping for the entire country. Vince Geronimo, BakerAECOM CCAMP/OPC Study: Distinguished the difference between CCAMP Bay Area Study (BAS). We are focusing on about nine miles of open Pacific coastline in San Francisco, and 4 FIRM panels. We will determine Base Flood Elevation (BFE) and conduct wave analysis. San Francisco as part of Phase 1 of the study, which includes ten counties. Phase 2 starts later this year with outreach in Southern California. The final product will be a new updated Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) and Flood Insurance Study (FIS). Study Process there are six steps. Right now we are in the Discovery phase. We are here to introduce the study and get your interest in the study. We will collaborate. We need local contacts to know who to keep updated. Data acquisition gather data from community and some of our partners (Lidar, etc). Scope of Work we will be starting site visits this week. QA/QC process Joint venture that involves Baker and AECOM. AECOM is south of Golden Gate, Baker is north of Golden Gate bridge up to the Oregon border. AECOM will review Baker study, and Baker will review AECOM study. Following QA/QC is preliminary maps. CCO meeting bring out maps, begin statutory process to develop effective maps. For RiskMAP process, we have set milestones for public meetings. Resiliency meeting is educating the community on how to use the maps, and what do the maps mean. Effective OPC Study maps are anticipated in We will provide updates through our website, meetings, etc. with public and stakeholders. Local Data what do you have? Add other contacts to the sheets on the board. We will revise and update our community contact list and conduct field site visits in the near future. Darryl Hatheway, BakerAECOM Scope studying the coast will be a significant effort. We are moving forward with data acquisition and field reconnaissance. We are also looking back into San Francisco s flood history

3 and hazards. The O Shaughnessy seawall is world renowned. We start our study around Baker Beach and will progress southward. Coastal floodplain Lidar is a big project between NOAA, USACE, and CA OPC. It will be 1-ft contour level, hi-resolution dataset. FEMA has never before had study guidelines for the Pacific Coast. It has been years since the Pacific coast was last conducted. FEMA G&S are available online. G&S were developed by 50 coastal experts to capture processes that apply in the Pacific region, not the Atlantic. Team was strategically pulled together BakerAECOM (contractor), Oceanweather, Inc. (deepwater ocean wave hindcast), Scripps Institute (existing 2-D wave model). We will make adjustments to methodology to develop best practices to apply to your study area. Transition from V to A zone is a 3 ft run-up depth. Also need to consider primary frontal dune designation and overtopping and wave height criteria. Run-up will be the primary criteria. II. Discussion / Questions from San Francisco staff 1. Is there a relationship between the Great Highway protection project and the FEMA project? How will information be shared? Answer:? 2. What is a CCO meeting? Answer: Community Coordinating Officers meeting. 3. We already have preliminary map for SF Countywide. Will the SF Bay and SF Open Coast separate map updates, or one will there by one map update that incorporates all of the new studies? Answer: Under the current schedule, the results of the SF Bay study will be incorporated into the SF Countywide map, resulting in one map update. The SF Open Coast study will be a separate update issued after the SF Countywide map. 4. Question from Linda on SF Airport flood zone San Mateo vs. San Francisco maps. Answer: SF Airport will be shown as Area Not Included (i.e., no flood zone designation) on the San Mateo Countywide map. The appropriate flood zone designation for the airport will be shown on the San Francisco Countywide map, based on the results of the SF Bay study. 5. Comment from Linda that San Francisco submitted comments on preliminary SF Countywide map but didn t hear back from FEMA. James wrote on parking lot.

4 6. Is there any component of this larger study that will help us understand the impact of tsunamis? Answer: Darryl- We are working with CGS and Cal EMA. See if 100-yr or 500-yr tsunami runup is a mapable line. Trying to figure out if it can be examined probabilistically. We are looking at a demonstration project in Crescent City. In Seaside, OR 100-yr tsunami run-up was lower than coastal BFE, but 500-yr level was higher than 500-yr wave results. We don t have all the processes and methods for tsunamis worked out yet. Tsunamis have never been factored into flood maps. 7. Stacy: What about academics? Are you coordinating with them? Answer: Vince - Academics are among the stakeholders we are interested in speaking with. 8. Question: What does the Pacific Institute flood layer represent? 9. Chris Barkley will you consider long-term erosion as one of the non-regulatory products? Answer: Darryl- No, we will not consider shoreline change only event based erosion. 10. Chris Barkley SLR is not part of the FEMA program. Could it be part of one of the nonregulatory products? Answer: Darryl- AECOM conducted a study looking at effects of climate change on the NFIP. That study included looking at SLR. This study is mapping existing flood risk. 11. What about the tunnels under the Great HWY? Answer: They are closed. Locals asked that they stay closed. III. Roundtable comments from San Francisco Staff 1. Wave run-up on cliffs is of interest to city in terms of cliff exposure to erosion. 2. General questions about timing of panels and effective maps, how these map revisions will be incorporated with Bay Study, existing preliminary maps. Chris Barkley (URS) commented on this wants clarity on timing of SF Bay vs. Open Coast map updates. 3. Greg: SF Port has a study on SLR and on combined sewer system and how they discharge into the Bay. 4. USGS will be doing a tsunami program in the next 1-2 years. We should be aware of that. Similar to ArkStorm project, but for tsunamis.

5 5. Will there be a section of the report related to implications for disaster planning? How to use maps for disaster planning? Ed: The updated maps together with the non-regulatory products like flood depth grids will identify the areas at highest risk of flooding. At a future meeting, we can discuss how the maps and products can be used to plan mitigation projects, evacuation routes, etc. 6. Stacy how to link severity of an event with the likelihood. Look at the whole system. Look at what is most likely and most vulnerable. Darryl- we will be compiling sub-layers for more frequent events such as 10, 50-yr flood layers that can be used for this type of analysis. 7. Frank Felice Have you contacted USGS (Barnard, Dan Haines)? El Nino frequency is the most significant effect along the coast. See 1995 study by the Corps (Peter Mull). CCC and BCDC boundary is Lands End, not the Gate. Lands End is more coastal than Bay dominated. Darryl- study contractor limits for SF Bay are tied to bridges. AECOM is working with SPURR on a planning study for Ocean Beach. Frank will contact them to tell them about the FEMA study. Everything south of Noriega is south of effect of bar for coastal protection and is eroding (up to 2m of beach in last six years). Accreting inside on Noriega (to the north), eroding outside (to the south). 8. Darryl: Effects of dredging on bar, beach erosion? Frank: Unanswered question is what is causing shrinkage of bar? Loss of hydraulic mining sediment, dredging, dam retention of sediment upstream, lots of theories. Previous disposal site found not to disperse sand (too deep?), folks looking at nearshore site to nourish beach through onshore wave transport. 9. Federal stimulus funding for Lidar in Golden Gate area. Greg says they have lots of Lidar data in the works. 10. Frank we have good data set of El Nino effects and impacts. Beaches and bluffs are eroding dynamic systems. Do you project into the future or just look at existing conditions? Darryl: we are looking at period from for wave hindcasts. Ideally, we could compare to previous inundation records. We put those annual maxima and put into a statistical framework to determine base flood event. We will be looking at previous storm forcings on the existing topography. For example, 83 event run-up on existing topography, to determine flood risk. 11. Consider splitting lowest panel into two smaller panels lots of important infrastructure down there (south of Sloat). Backshore transitions from dunes to Colma formation as you move south of Sloat.

6 12. Chris Barkley Outreach. This is some ways out. Public won t see any product while you guys are working. Bay project will have a bigger impact. Maybe good strategy would be not to spin up a big deal right now, since SF Bay project is coming out soon and will have bigger impact. Darryl we have the same problem in San Mateo, Marin, and Sonoma. We don t want to confuse the message. 13. Greg previous prelim study drew one line. One obvious question will be, what is the new map and why did it change from what we saw before? Trivial changes to mapped elevation could result in inclusion of billions of dollars of real estate and infrastructure. People need to know that in a couple years, numbers could and will change. 14. Greg FEMA maps for San Francisco do not cover rainfall/precipitation flooding, which is what people are most familiar with in urbanized San Francisco. Areas flood (pond) that are not mapped in floodplains. That distinction needs to be clear from FEMA mapping. Need a clear strategy on outreach to be clear on what is being presented vs. not considered. Meeting concluded 4:20pm. NEXT MEETING: Estimated: Flood Study Review Meeting (March 2013) / Updates during the next two CCAMP/BAS meetings (October 2011 and September 2012)