Tectonic Change, Big Data and the Test & Evaluation

Transcription

1 Tectonic Change, Big Data and the Test & Evaluation Challenge MG, USA John M. Custer 1

2 Islamic Extremism Cloud Computing Food & Water Arab Spring Covert Action Nuclear Programs Hybrid Warfare Terrorist Attacks UNCLASSIFIED Amplifiers Seismic..TECTONIC BIG DATA Energy Demands A Transformed World Find Fix Finish Units / Individuals / NETWORKS Virtualization Globalization. Globalization.Virtualization Demographic Trends Resource Competition WMD Proliferation Failed / Failing States Climate Change - Knowledge Management - Power of Anonymity Identity Resolution - Age of the Strategic Private LES/CES - Age of the Strategic Innovator UNCLASSIFIED PREDICTIV E ANALYTICS F3EAD Culture..ACCESS Expertise has moved to the Edge No more Order of Battle Every Paradigm Has Changed 2

3 We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology - Carl Sagan 3

4 902.4 PB Size of YouTube $187/second Cost of last Ebay Outage 282 Million Internet t websites 294 Billion Average s/day 800 Million Facebook Users 6.9 Billion People.4.3 Billion Mobile Devices 30 Billion Pieces shared on Facebook/MonthF-35 A Terabyte per Sortie 460,000 New Twitter Accounts per Day 152 Million Internet Blogs 107 Trillion s sent in Billion PCs and Laptops 1 Billion Tweets/Week, 177 Million 3/1/ Million Gigabytes Size of Google s Index 6,939 1/1/11 Current Tweets Per Second record - Japan 4 seconds after Midnight* 340x10 23 Size of IPv6 Address Space 1.98 Billion Internet Users 7/25/2008 Google passes 1 trillion URLs 4

5 The Information Being Created Today is Big Data Massive Amounts of File-based, Unstructured Data Video Surveillance and Graphics Satellite Imagery HOW DO WE MANAGE AND MAKE SENSE OF THE BIG DATA WE ARE COLLECTING? UNCLASSIFIED 5

6 A Vocabulary for Measuring Information Data If a Grain of Sand were One Byte of Information... 1 Megabyte = 1 million bytes a tablespoon of sand 1 Gigabyte = 1 billion bytes patch of sand 9 square, 1 deep 1 Terabyte = 1 trillion bytes a sandbox 24 square, 1 deep 1 Petabyte = 1,000 terabytes a mile long beach 100 wide, 1 deep 1 Exabyte = 1,000 petabytes the same beach from Maine to North Carolina 1 Zettabyte = 1,000 exabytes the same beach along the entire US coast 1 Yottabyte = 1,000 zetabytes (24 Zeroes) enough info to bury the entire US under 296 feet of sand And if you re talking about communications.bits. MULTIPLY BY EIGHT! (1 Byte equals 8 Bits) 6

7 The Ever Growing Volume and Complexity of Data Collection, Warehousing and Discovery Tectonic Shift A DIGITAL FOOTPRINT...IN THE MODERN WORLD, EVERY HUMAN AND MECHANICAL ACTIVITY LEAVES A TRAIL OF DATA... Phone calls, credit card transactions, blogs, medical records, cash withdrawals, bar code swipes, bank interaction, passports, visas, Tweets, web use, messages, Government data CONSTELLATIONS OF PLATFORMS TIED TO NETWORKS OF SENSORS ALL INTEGRATED INTO THE INTERNET High- capacity microwave radio-relay systems, satellite links, fibre optic submarine cables carrying mixed traffic of voice/voip/video/fax/ and internet data, video surveillance cameras, fingerprint scanners, CBRNE (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, explosive) detection devices, Airline Passenger Name Records, Phone call detail records, satellite and UAV images, 4.5 million CCTV cameras in UK...30 million in US New families of sensors are constantly being created, each sending an increasing amount of data (High Density Images, Video, Voice, Data, Multispectral). NETWORK SECURITY, DATA FORENSICS AND TRACKINGIS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT SMALLER DATA PACKETS MULTIPLE ROUTES DEEP PACKET INSPECTION (DPI) AND CLOUD TRUST ARE KEYs TO FUTURE SUCCESS INTELLIGENCE 7

8 Our problem is we have historically been platform and sensor-centric, giving only lip-service to the crucial processing and analytic activities which transform information into intelligence. More and more constellations of platforms each with increasingly more capable families of sensors only provide us with more mountains of data, making actionable intelligence even more difficult to derive. Developing technologies to sift and analyze mind-numbing amounts of data while interacting with analysts in real time has got to be our priority in the future. General John P. Abizaid Commander, US Central Command March

9 The ISR T&E Dilemma BIG DATA CONUS REAL-TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS NETWORK SECURITY Intelligence Cloud Cloud BACK-UP & RECOVERY BIG DATA TAGGING BIG DATA ANALYTIC Ground STORAGE Control TOOLS Station Tactical Operations Center C2 and Analysis How do you Test and Evaluate BIG DATA Systems of Systems Architectures based on Multi-Platform, Joint, and Interagency Interoperability? Launch & Recovery 9

10 Where We Stand Today AN EMERGING ERA OF CLOUD COMPUTING AND BIG DATA In Every Future War we will use ONE TENTH the Force utilized in the Previous Conflict and ONE HUNDRED Times the Bandwidth How do we Test in a New Data Paradigm? Can Data Overwhelm Testing? Requires a Relevant and Contested Environment What does PreDeployment ep e Testing Look Like? Speeds and Capabilities of Operational Systems How to Evaluate and Validate The Cloud? A Ubiquitous Cyber Security Envelope Real-Time Analytics will Define the Era Data Minutes Old is Stale SIMULATING AND EVALUATING KNOWLEDGE MGMT Cyber Security Design Test requirements By % of Devices on Internet will not be PCs By 2015 only 20% PCs Transitioning to Billions of Concurrent Users Platforms Will Produce a Petabyte a Day No Future US Monopoly on Situational Awareness ISR will Globalize and Commoditize Storage is a Commodity but Raw vs Usable matters Petabytes Hyperscale The New Normal

11 T&E Infrastructure Study The Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology and Logistics) has requested TRMC to assemble an objective expert team to conduct a study to determine how T&E resource costs can be significantly reduced to provide adequate and robust testing at incrementally lower budget levels. 11

12 Scope of the T&E Infrastructure Study Identify high-payoff areas for potential savings Determine DoD T&E infrastructure requirements and proper stewardship of specific test capabilities to include: Capabilities at other Federal Agencies Capabilities at commercial contractors Based on infrastructure requirements, identify capabilities required to meet future weapon system needs Identify alternatives and develop recommendations for operation and maintenance support of test facilities Develop recommendations with advantages/disadvantages of alternatives Assess potential business model alternatives, funding policy alternatives and technology initiatives 12

13 The Testing Capability Gap How Do You Test a Petabyte Sensor Network? Sensors and Data Growing BBBB Exponentially 13

14 How Do We Create a New Test and Evaluation Regime? Around The Corner KEY DRIVERS OF THE FUTURE Virtualization VDC/VDI Containerized Data Centers Enable the Cloud Broadband will Enable the Video Explosion Hi-Fidelity Search Predictive Learning Curiosity Engines Increasingly Intelligent and Independent NETWORKS THE ENTERPRISE IS THE EDGE The Network is the Formation of the Future All Information Will Be Digital Users Will Employ Any and All Devices All Devices will be Network Nodes Stand Alone Products will Die CONVERGED INFRASTRUCTURE Virtualized,Integrated and Preconfigured Networks, Compute, Storage and Security 14

15 Implications for Test and Evaluation Volume PETABYTES are the New Normal.HYPERSCALE.How Long Until EXABYTES? Store, Manage and Analyze Vast Amounts of Data Scale-out Virtualized, Dynamic, Elastic Architectures Velocity Real Time Situational Awareness Converged Compute, Storage, Networking and Security.Encrypted Enterprises Variety Structured and Unstructured Data Subtle Networks of Connections Simulated Assets and Feeds Detect Non-Obvious Patterns and Links between Systems, Events, Places and Timeframes Complexity and Speed of Analysis Rapid, Rich, Enhanced Analytics for Big Data Sets CHAFF IS THE NEW WHEAT Correlation NOT Search Ad Hoc, Interactive Analysis.NOT Simple Structured Reports Provide Analysts the Ability to Explore and Manipulate the Data Budget Maintain SLAs as Volume Dramatically at Expands.$$$ Reduce Datacenter Footprint and Costs.$$$ UNCLASSIFIED 15

16 MetaData Challenges for 21 st Century Test and Evaluation Exponential growth in data quantity, sources, types and required analysis capability Metadata Creation must be Automated for Test and Evaluation Must be a New Priority Insufficient bandwidth to move data for centralized analysis necessitates federated massively parallel analytics Lack of performance for advanced analytics, complex queries and predictive results Necessary shift from Network Centricity to Data Centricity 16

17 Down The Road COLLABORATION.PRODUCTIVITY TOOL OF THE FUTURE Collaboration -No Longer an Option Smart Networks Collaboration will Dictate T&E Efficiencies SIPR and NIPR will vanish.replaced by Functional CoEs in the Cloud Data-Centric NOT Net-Centric Operate Under the Assumption of Breach Network Technology so deeply embedded it can no longer be separated from the Mission IT is driving a Confluence of Intelligence - Operations Logistics across the Military 17

18 - How Do We Create a Contested Architecture for Testing? - What Are The Tenets of 21 st Century T&E Cyber Security? Down The Road TEST & EVALUATION CHALLENGES Modern Telemetry Fifth Generation Aircraft Cyberspace Autonomous Vehicles Electronic Warfare ALL BIG DATA PROBLEMS Finding Emerging Technologies to Assess and Evaluate Emergent Threats 18

19 A Look Ahead The Toughest Culture to Change is One that s been Successful 1. Prepare for Disruption 2. Cloud will enable Next Generation IT 3. Next Killer App: Big Data Analytics 4. Trust Will Be The Key 5. BIG Data Demands a New T&E Paradigm ad 19

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