The scope for renewable energy in Cumbria

Transcription

1 The scope for renewable energy in Cumbria

2 title Contents first para Chairman: Sir Martin Holdgate CB MA PhD FSB Formerly Chief Scientist and Deputy Secretary, Department of the Environment ( ). Director General, IUCN The World Conservation Union, Chairman, Renewable Energy Advisory Group, ; Energy Advisory Panel, ; Member, Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Executive summary 2. Introduction: the genesis of this document 3. Background: previous studies, policy guidance and constraints 4. General considerations 5. The approach of this study 6. Employment potential 7. Other factors 8. A note on units 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria 9.1 Onshore wind 9.2 Offshore wind 9.3 Hydropower 9.4 Tidal schemes 9.5 Wave energy schemes 9.6 Solar energy 9.7 Geothermal energy and heat pumps 9.8 Organic resources (biomass) Municipal, sewage and industrial wastes Anaerobic digestion of farm wastes Woodfuel in Cumbria Energy crops 1. Evaluation of renewable energy potential in Cumbria 11. The way ahead 12. Appendix: Members of the panel Sir Martin Holdgate, Chairman of the Cumbria Renewables Panel Approved for publication, August 29 1 Cover image: turbines in Cumbria Image: E.ON UK plc 2

3 1. Executive summary The Renewable Energy Panel of Cumbria Vision was established in 28 with a mandate to advise the Board on all matters relating to the development and operation of Renewable Energy in Cumbria. In January 29 the Panel decided to review the scope for the various kinds of renewable energy in the county. The aim was to define which were most appropriate in Cumbria and would bring greatest benefit to the economy, and so help Cumbria Vision to encourage the enterprises that would contribute most to local welfare and national need. In 21 Cumbria had a population of just under half a million people, living in just over 2, households. The domestic needs of those households for electricity could be met by only around 13 Megawatts (MW) of continuous generation, but the total energy requirements of the population (as a share of UK consumption) is d to be some 22 times greater, requiring 2.53 Gigawatts (GW) of generating plant. Some studies have suggested that demand will grow in the coming decade, but recent modelling predicts that improvements in efficiency may hold it more or less steady in the northwest region. At the same time, it is essential that the UK reduces its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby contributing to action against climate change and enhancing national fuel security. Consequently energy production from renewables and nuclear power must increase. The Scoping Study has confirmed that Cumbria s share of regional and national targets can be met using a wide mix of renewable sources. The Panel s study is not the first. It takes account of Government White Papers and Planning Policy Statements, and although it was largely completed before the publication in July 29 of the UK Renewable Energy Strategy and associated Low Carbon Plans it is fully compatible with those documents. Among local and regional studies, it draws on the Renewable Energy Development study by Axis Planning Consultants, undertaken as an input to the Joint Cumbria and Lake District National Park Structure Plan and the 4NW study by Ove Arup and Partners in 28. The Panel emphasises that while it is imperative to increase the share of energy that comes from renewable sources the merits of a renewable development have to be balanced against possible impacts on other sectors of the economy and on the welfare and quality of life of local communities. In Cumbria major hydro-power schemes, tidal barrages and large onshore wind farms could alter the look of areas of internationally-prized landscape and have impacts on the tourist industry that is one of the county s mainstays. The Scoping Study is designed to help strike a rational balance between the conservation of these unique assets and the development of vital new energy sources. The Study looks at each type of renewable energy in turn. In each section the potential theoretical resource is considered first, and then the environmental, social and economic factors that may moderate actual installation. The potential contribution to the Cumbrian economy is then evaluated, followed by an (which becomes increasingly conjectural as remoter time horizons are addressed) of how much might be contributed in 21, 22 and 25 in terms both of energy and employment. As part of its analysis of potential, the Study examines the likely geographical distribution of each kind of renewable resource. For example: offshore wind farms will obviously be located in the shallow seas off the Cumbrian west coast and in the outer reaches of the Solway and Morecambe Bay; the greatest onshore wind potential is to be found on the ridge crests of the higher Lakeland and Pennine fells and in the western coastal belt; the Solway, Morecambe Bay and the Duddon Estuary could be the site of major tidal energy schemes the former having the potential to generate almost as much electricity as the projected Severn Barrage. However, development in some of these areas is likely to be constrained by the need for a balance between energy provision, outdoor recreation and tourism, the conservation of nationally important landscapes and wildlife habitats and the social and economic welfare of local communities. Modest tidal power schemes with less environmental impact than the major barrages are likely to win favour. Onshore wind farms are likely, following Planning Policy Statement 22 and the County Council s Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document, to be excluded from National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, which may be extended following current evaluation of some adjoining areas. They will hence be concentrated in the western coastal zone north of Barrow and east and north of Whitehaven and Workington, and possibly the uplands west of Kielder Forest and in parts of the M6 corridor. Image: turbines on the Cumbrian coast

4 The Study also emphasises that the cost of producing a unit of energy varies from one renewable mode to another (not least because financial incentives vary) and that different technologies are at different stages of development. Over time, some technologies will grow while others plateau and even decline. For example, embedded energy sources like electricity-generating photovoltaic tiles on the rooftops and facades of buildings and heat pumps drawing energy from the soil or air may well gain in popularity, not least because of the Government s recent commitment to feed-in tariffs. Job creation potential also varies from technology to technology. The Study concludes that many of the largest developments like offshore or onshore wind farms or major tidal barrages are likely largely to incorporate equipment made outside Cumbria, or even outside the UK, installed by labour that is also imported. Conversely, Cumbria has a national centre of expertise in small-scale hydro-power and also has local enterprises able to build and maintain small-scale wind energy installations, solar systems and heat pumps. The county also has major potential for anaerobic digestion of farm and food wastes and for woodburning boilers, supplied by the large tracts of woodland that are currently unmanaged or scarcely managed. The conclusions of the study are summarised in the table and the histogram on page 8. For each date-line 21, 22 and 25 the study s the installed capacity as Megawatts either of electricity or heat energy. Some sources are intermittent onshore wind farms, for example, supply electricity for an average 28% of the time, and tidal stream turbines are also intermittent, albeit more predictable. For each date-line the Study also s how many jobs may be sustained by the sector in question, adjusting the number per unit of energy supplied as time passes to take account of likely efficiency gains. To summarise: In 21: it is expected that Cumbria will have only some 38MW of installed renewable capacity, almost all of it as electricity from wind, two thirds of that offshore. Most of the jobs are however likely to be associated with small-scale hydro and energy from landfill, sewage gas and fuelwood. By 22: the offshore wind sector is expected to have expanded dramatically and the county s total capacity, again mostly for electricity production, to have risen to around 25MW - 2.5GW which is in theory sufficient to meet almost all of Cumbria s needs if operating continuously. the study is cautious about tidal power, projecting only 15MW of development, equivalent to either a small Solway Barrage or the Bridge Across Morecambe Bay, which would combine the attractions of a new communications link for West Cumbria with both wind and tidal stream turbines; small-scale hydro, solar, geothermal and biomass sources are all expected to have advanced and to be important sectors of employment, with a total of about 25 jobs in the renewable energy sector by this period. 21 Jobs 22 Jobs 25 Jobs Onshore Wind 115MW 57 25MW 112 4MW 8 Offshore Wind 24MW 96 2MW 72 24MW to 35MW 384 to 56 Hydro 3MW 15 6MW 27 1MW 2 Tidal 15MW MW to 3MW Wave to 25MW Solar (PV and thermal) Geothermal (includes GSHP & ASHP) to 2 to 5MW <1MW 25 2MW 594 4MW to 1MW.5MW 2 5MW 1,8 5MW to 52MW 1 to 12 to to 1,32 2, to 4,16 Landfill/Sewage 1MW 19 25MW MW 19 Farm wastes 2MW 42 2MW 378 5MW 42 Wood 1MW 2 1MW to 4MW Totals 381.5MW MW to 2541MW 18 to 72 4,616 to 5,158 2MW to 6MW 3245MW to 5465MW 16 to 48 4,262 to 7,55 Estimated installed capacity of renewable modes and associated jobs in 21, 22 and 25. Note that output from geothermal and wood will be predominantly thermal, and there will be some solar thermal also. Bold indicates mainly electricity output. By 25: onshore wind is expected to have reached a ceiling because the sensible sites have been taken up and it is assumed that the internationally acclaimed Cumbrian landscape, source of so much tourist income, will be safeguarded; offshore wind could however be a very big player indeed; tidal power could well have expanded a great deal, possibly using tidal stream turbines, some in association with wind farms; wave energy may have become a contributor, though potential in the land-locked Irish Sea is relatively limited; solar systems could have taken off, impelled by feed-in tariffs and the Government commitment to a zero carbon standard for all new homes built after 216; ground and air sourced heat pumps are also predicted to gain popularity, replacing the use of domestic heating oil. The Scoping Study therefore predicts both an expansion in renewable energy development in Cumbria and a change in the mix of modes. Wind energy is expected to be the dominant renewable source initially, but in the longer term other modes may well expand. Some of these offer greater employment and industrial development potential in Cumbria. By mid-century, technology like solar panels, heat pumps and wood-fired boilers could be burgeoning. Some of the associated jobs will be new, but others will be filled by people transferring from industries like those currently supplying and servicing oil-fired heating. There are of course uncertainties. Photovoltaic tile arrays are durable, but they need further development and the encouragement of the new tariff structure if they are to sweep the market. Their attraction is that their land-take is no more than that of the building they sit on, and they provide income for their owners from the sale of surplus electricity to the grid. Cumbria s woodlands could also produce useful fuel while retaining their natural beauty and diversity and their role as important sinks for carbon dioxide. Today Cumbria s woods and peat mires hold 265 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and take up nearly 7, tonnes a year absorbing about a tenth of the county s emissions. The Scoping Study therefore concludes that there is considerable scope for renewable energy development in Cumbria. By 22 the county should be producing enough to match the demand of its population. By 25 it should be a significant exporter of renewable energy. And this can be achieved without damaging Cumbria s magnificent landscapes or harming its important tourist industry. The Renewables Panel of Cumbria Vision will now be examining the several renewable modes, and especially seeking ways of stimulating small and medium sized enterprises working in this sector. It hopes and expects to work in partnership through the proposals currently under discussion for a focussed sustainable energy team for Cumbria.

5 6 Potential renewable energy generation capacity in Cumbria 2. Introduction: the genesis of this document 5 In 21 Cumbria had a population of 487,67 people, living in 29,27 households 1 (average 2.33 people per household). Some 7.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide were emitted per low 21 high 22 low 22 high 25 low 8 Potential number of jobs created in renewable energy sector in Cumbria low 21 high 22 low 22 high 25 low 25 high 25 high Wood Farm wastes Landfill/Sewage Geothermal Solar Wave Tidal Hydro Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Wood Farm wastes Landfill/Sewage Geothermal Solar Wave Tidal Hydro Offshore Wind Onshore Wind annum, 3.8mt from industry, 1.2mt from households and 2.2mt from other sources 2. This works out at tonnes per person per year. Total domestic energy consumption is likely to have been under 3 million kwh/day, requiring some 13MW of generation capacity, but if every Cumbrian is attributed the UK average consumption of 125kWh/day the figure rises to 61 million kwh/day 3 and this would demand over 2,5MW (2.5GW) of constant supply. Although many projections assume increasing energy demand in the coming half century, recent modelling predicts that more efficient energy use could well hold demand level or even reduce it in the north-west region over the coming decade 4. The Government is seeking to reduce UK carbon dioxide emissions by at least 8% by 25, and as one step towards that end it plans to meet 15% of national energy needs from renewable sources by In 26 renewables met only 1.5% of the national requirement 6. Cumbria has been set a carbon reduction target of 619, tonnes per annum by 211 and by 21 was expected to have 219MW of installed onshore wind energy capacity (one third of the target of 649MW for the north-west region). By 215 the Cumbrian target was supposed to be 268MW installed capacity out of a regional total of 797MW. The Renewable Energy Panel of Cumbria Vision has a mandate 7 to advise the Board on all matters relating to the development and operation of renewable energy in Cumbria including energy-efficiency related technology and proposals, with particular emphasis on the impact of investment decisions on job creation and prosperity in the County. At its meeting on 28 January 29 the Panel agreed to undertake a scoping study evaluating the potential for different types of renewable energy in Cumbria. The present paper is the result. It has been written by the Panel Chairman, Sir Martin Holdgate, but draws on the expert advice and guidance of Panel members and the secretariat of Cumbria Vision. Produced for the Board of Cumbria Vision, it sets out to examine which renewable technologies will best be able to support the economic outcomes described in the Cumbria Economic Strategy, 29. Because Cumbria Vision is especially concerned with promoting the development of the county economy, it looks at the scope for locally-based enterprises that will benefit Cumbria as well as help contribute to regional and national targets. It has been based on best available information at the time of writing, but as it seeks to look nearly half a century ahead, figures will undoubtedly change as technological advances are made and Government policies evolve. Time horizons are important. The design life of energy installations varies: hydro-power schemes, coastal barrages, large power stations and parts of the grid network may last 5 years or more whereas wind farms have a planned life of 25 years and among domestic-scale technology only solar photovoltaic (silicon crystal) panels have been proved to last more than 25-3 years. Furthermore, renewable technologies are at different stages of development, with differing degrees of uncertainty over output, cost and durability. Current uptake is considerably influenced by Government subsidy, designed to stimulate the market but not equally favourable to all modes. The Renewables Obligation, for example, only supports electricity generation and has largely encouraged centralised schemes, which is why the Government is now developing new forms of support for renewable heat and renewable transport and seeking to encourage small-scale clean electricity through feed-in tariffs 8. Potential also varies according to geographical situation and the feasibility of a cost effective connection to the grid network supplying power to consumers. Acceptability in a particular location is influenced by potential impact on valued environmental features (such as landscape quality or biodiversity), community welfare and local economics. All these parameters are changing, and this will influence the mix of sources used to meet the Government s stated target of 8% reduction in national carbon emissions by 25. This report assesses the potential supply from different types of renewable in Cumbria in 21, 22 and 25. There is inevitable speculation about technological advances that may increase the importance of some energy modes in the future. There is also inevitable speculation about the number and type of jobs that may be created in the various sectors. At the same time, by urging a broad approach to renewable energy, with all modes enabled to evolve as technology, markets and social needs dictate, the Panel favours resilience: enterprises will need to be adaptive, changing as opportunities change. The whole paper should be viewed as a snapshot of a dynamic landscape, and it will need review from time to time as the renewable energy sector and social demands evolve. 1 Data from 21 census. 2 Cumbria County Council and Cumbria Strategic Partnership, Cumbria Climate Change Strategy, Data on domestic and average national consumption per head from David J C Mackay, Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air, UIT Cambridge, Data in paper by Helen Seagrave, NW Energy Council. 5 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July BERR. UK Renewable Energy Consultation Document, June 28. National consumption was 18TWh and renewables provided 25TWh. 7 Terms of Reference for Cumbria Vision Renewables Panel 8 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter 3.

6 3. Background: previous studies, policy guidance and constraints 4. General considerations The development of renewable energy is guided by general Government policy, as set out in the Energy White Papers of 23 and 27, the UK Renewable Energy Strategy and Low Carbon Strategies and Plan of July 29 and specific Planning Policy Statements of which the most relevant are PPS 1 (Delivering Sustainable Development, with supplement on Planning and Climate Change) and PPS22 (Renewable Energy). The Joint Cumbria and Lake District Structure Plan and several Local Plans drawn up by Districts set out general policy towards renewable energy, and the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Policy document has been adopted by the local planning authorities to provide guidance to developers seeking sites. There have been several overviews of renewable energy potential in the North West in general or Cumbria in particular. The two most important are: Renewable Energy Development in Cumbria Identifying the Potential prepared for Cumbria County Council and Sustainability North West by Axis Planning Consultants in 23 as part of the development of the Joint Cumbria and Lake District National Park Structure Plan, ; Ove Arup and Partners study Towards Broad Areas for Renewable Energy Development, undertaken for the North West Regional Assembly (now 4NW) in 28 in support of the review of the Regional Spatial Strategy. The Regional Spatial Strategy includes specific targets for renewable energy in Cumbria. The market for renewables is dependant upon finance and Government (following EU policy) has provided incentives through the Renewable Obligation, which requires utility companies either to supply a certain proportion of renewable energy (set at 11.4% by 211/12) evidenced by Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) or to pay a buy-out price. Government has announced 9 its intention to extend the RO until 237 for new projects, and to remove the maximum obligation level of 2%. While consultation on new RO bands is continuing, support for offshore wind is to be increased. A Renewable Heat Incentive is to be introduced, and feed-in tariffs will be available for small-scale distributed electricity generation schemes with a capacity of up to 5MW. The result should be a greater diversification of renewables, including electricity from community-level and domestic-level installations, and encouragement of a range of heat generating systems including heat pumps and the use of biomass (especially wood) for domestic and commercial heating and combined heat and power (CHP). Since the potential of wind, hydro, tidal, wave, solar, geothermal and biomass energy depends critically on location and terrain, the scope for different renewables varies widely in Cumbria. Geographical potential is further affected by environmental policy constraints, arising from social and economic priorities which make some forms of renewable development inappropriate or undesirable in particular places. For example, it is generally accepted policy that large on-shore wind farms should not be permitted in National Parks, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty or equivalent designated landscapes. 1 Image: oil seed rape field in Cumbria 1 This policy is affirmed in Government White Papers, PPS22, the Cumbria and LDNP Joint Structure Plan, the Cumbria 9 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm7686, July 29. Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document, Local Environment Plans and the decisions of several Planning Inquiries. 1

7 Conversely, there is a view that current planning procedures needlessly impede or delay socially valuable renewable energy developments: the 28 Planning Act is intended to facilitate a better balance between the need to safeguard environmental features and the need for new developments, and to speed up planning consents for energy projects above 5MW. Most land in Britain is privately or corporately owned. Unless public authorities are prepared to over-ride private interests, renewable developments will only occur where landowners are willing to make sites available commonly because they see financial advantage in so doing. This has a strong influence on the location of development proposals, whose appropriateness is then evaluated against planning policy and guidance. Although the latter may indicate areas where development is judged more or less appropriate, there is no strategic zonation or site allocation for major renewable developments such as wind farms. As already noted, different renewable technologies are at different stages of technical development: hydro-power has been tapped for over a century, with a major expansion in Scotland immediately following the second World War; wind turbines (manufactured almost exclusively outside the UK) have been in the market for some 3 years, though their capacity has increased steadily; wood has been the traditional fuel of humanity since the dawn of civilization, and efficient stoves and boilers for domestic and commercial heating and perhaps modest-sized local power stations are now entering the market. other biofuels, grown specifically for combustion (rotational willow coppice or Miscanthus grass) or as feedstock for transport fuel (maize or oilseed rape) are slowly advancing but cause some concern because of their competition for land with food production; there is a wide range of energy from waste techniques including tapping landfill sites and sewage works for methane as a source of heat and power and the use of solid municipal organic wastes as a fuel; anaerobic digestion of organic wastes to yield methane has potential environmental benefits and has been in or near-market for many years without making a breakthrough in the UK: it is currently being promoted energetically in Cumbria; tidal barrages have also been debated for many years and have major potential (as well as major environmental impact): they are now under serious consideration while tidal stream turbines are being tested in several locations; domestic scale solar heating panels and photovoltaics are becoming more attractive and their market penetration is expected to increase in the coming decade; The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapters 3, 4 and The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter 4. small-scale ground- and air-sourced heat pumps have been available commercially for many years and are gaining popularity, especially in rural areas which lack mains gas and are hence over-reliant on oil for heating; wave power, debated for at least thirty years, seems at last to be entering the market place although low wave energy may limit opportunities off the Cumbrian coasts. The third, linked, set of issues concerns time and unit cost. Harnessing some forms of renewable energy demands large-scale and very costly installations such as tidal barrages and large dams (both subject to environmental objections). These, like major power stations, also take a long time (say 8-15 years) to move from drawing board to completed scheme, and once completed they need to be operated for decades for the investment to be recovered. Wind farms, in contrast, involve structures with lower unit costs and the smaller-scale embedded devices at domestic or community scale are cheaper still. There is a disincentive to invest in large and expensive structures if there is a prospect of a new and cheaper technology coming on-stream, at much lower unit cost, on a time scale of a decade or so. Manufacturers and utilities clearly need returns that will satisfy their shareholders, and to ensure substantial renewable development Government has found it necessary to intervene in the market (notably through the Renewable Obligation). As already noted, this has favoured centralised electricity generation projects and especially wind farms: by introducing feed-in tariffs for installations of up to 5MW capacity the Government is likely to stimulate embedded small-scale and community-level wind energy, along with photovoltaic arrays. Marine energy is to receive encouragement through a Marine Action Plan and investment in wave and tidal energy testing while the Renewable Heat Incentive, support for renewable transport, and a wide range of support for new resources and technologies should provide a balanced incentive for the development of various other forms of renewable energy 11. There could be a major stimulus to geothermal and biomass-fuel enterprises. There is one further point to make. Electricity generation depends on a network to reach the user, and the creation of a scatter of renewable sources, some of them small-scale, will make it necessary to adjust (and often enhance) the network. In conjunction with the opportunity for nuclear new build, this will demand a strategic review of the grid. Network deficiencies are currently impeding the input of renewable energy in some parts of Scotland, and similar barriers could be a problem in Cumbria. The Government is addressing these issues and will use powers granted in the Energy Act 28 to introduce reforms to grid access arrangements The approach of this study The following sections evaluate the scope for the various kinds of renewable in Cumbria under the following headings: Theoretical potential. What is a reasonable of potential in Cumbria? Geographical distribution. How is it distributed geographically over the county, including the adjacent shallow seas? Environmental and social factors. How far are these likely to influence the utilisation of the resource? Economic and Infrastructure factors. How far are these likely to affect development? Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. What are the prospects for Cumbria-based enterprises and jobs in the sector concerned? Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. What is the likely contribution of this form of renewable in 21, 22 and 25? The technologies are reviewed in the following sequence: Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydropower Tidal schemes Wave energy schemes Solar energy (thermal and photovoltaic) Geothermal energy (including heat pumps) Biomass (broken down into separate sections dealing with energy from municipal wastes (including sewage and food wastes), farm wastes, wood and energy crops). 6. Employment potential Excluding the nuclear sector, early analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, it is perhaps the smaller output renewable technology which could provide the biggest benefit to Cumbrian economy. This may well suit the profile of the county s businesses which tend to be smaller than the usual SME s, and would indicate that there is a clear lobbying role Having reviewed the options, the study concludes by evaluating the most probable pattern in Cumbria from both a technical and local economic standpoint and considering the way ahead. The aim is to help inform investment decisions as to which specific areas of renewable power Cumbria Vision should support in order to help create prosperity for people living in the county. The study does not seek to provide an evidence base for spatial planning for renewables or for county-wide target setting. Each technology section includes a best-guess analysis of the potential for job creation. This is of course open to challenge and will be amended as greater clarity evolves. Some of the figures could change dramatically if inward investment for manufacturing facilities can be attracted and secured, but the focus is more towards how many jobs could be created over a long term period through the sales, installation and maintenance of each specific renewable technology. Evidently, as time passes there is bound to be a diminishing return on jobs as technology and processes mature. For this reason the calculations have been scaled down by a blanket 1% in 22 and 6% in 25, rounding down to the nearest FTE. to ensure government policy encourages deployment. This may be favoured by recent decisions on feed-in tariffs and smart and strategic grid infrastructure upgrades and, on a local level, by working with policy makers and planning authorities. 12

8 7. Other factors 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria The Study has not evaluated the scope for nuclear power, because this is outside the remit of the Renewables Panel, and it has also omitted consideration of the potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) although this is being seen in many quarters as an important technology allowing continued use of coal and other fossil fuels as a primary energy source, as well as cleaning up a range of carbon-emitting industries. Likewise, the role of Cumbria s woodlands and wetlands as important carbon stores and sinks is only treated briefly, although it is d that these hold carbon equivalent to 35 million and 23 million tonnes of CO2 respectively and together fix 69, tonnes of CO2 per annum. The study also omits assessment of the scope for increased efficiency in energy use, though it is recognised that this will be an essential component of any strategy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. However the Panel recognises the potential importance of energy service industries that will assist consumers in Cumbria to use supplies more efficiently. The scope is obvious: for example 3-35% of 8. A note on units The capacity of a renewable source to supply energy is rated in kilowatts - kw - (1 watts), megawatts - MW - (1 million watts) or gigawatts - GW - (1 (American) billion watts). Most renewable systems do not operate to capacity all the time, because of variations in wind, river flow, tide or sunshine. The load factor or capacity factor is the average percentage of capacity actually delivered: for on-shore wind farms this is around 26%-3% depending on location. Energy use is commonly measured in kilowatt hours (kwh). A standard unit of electricity is one kilowatt used for one hour (1 kwh). A 4-watt electric light bulb, left on continually, uses 1kWh in a 24 hour day (lkwh/day) or 365 kwh in a year. A megawatt (MW) of capacity, operating continually, delivers 2.36GWh a year. Some popular units are often encountered in newspapers and other literature. For example: boilers in the county are 12 or more years old, some 15% of homes lack any insulation, while a further 3-35% have only minimal provision. Because conservation could deliver a contribution on a footing with a major renewable supply source, and provide employment in the process, the Panel will include energy efficiency in its programme of work and will continue to encourage enterprises working in this field. CO 2 emissions per person per year in UK 9 tonnes 13 CO 2 emissions per year per home (domestic emissions per household) 4 tonnes It is sometimes stated that a renewable development will supply 5 homes. This assumes that an average home or household uses 47 kwh/year or 13kWh per day equivalent to.54kw of installed capacity. This is purely domestic electricity consumption, and does not include that household s heating, transport or share of energy consumption in the workplace. The average household s energy consumption per day in the UK is stated to be about 24 times as much. An average person uses about 125 kwh/day or 45,625kWh/yr Onshore wind Theoretical potential. Cumbria is an upland county and average wind speeds of 8 to 11 metres per second are experienced in many places on the high fells. Mean wind speeds in the 7 to 9 metres per second range are found at many points on the western coastal belt 15. If development were unconstrained by other factors the theoretical onshore wind energy capacity could be of the order of gigawatts, though the intermittent nature of the resource means an average 28% load factor 16. The 23 Axis study d a Cumbrian potential of 2-355MW, divided among developments with individual turbines rated at 1.5MW. Since then, turbines rated at 3MW capacity, borne on masts 12m high measured from base to rotor tip have entered the market, and this would clearly permit the Axis to be realised with far fewer individual installations. Indeed, 5MW turbines are now being manufactured, though they seem likely only to be deployed offshore. The 4NW Report analysed the proportion of the theoretical maximum capacity that might actually be developed, taking constraints on land into account and indicated a maximum onshore wind capacity for the north west of 522MW: if 65% was in Cumbria that would amount to 339MW by See David J C Mackay, Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air (UIT, Cambridge, 29) for a critique of these units. Cumbrians, at tonnes, exceed the national average David Mackay, loc. cit. County Wind Resource Map. ETSU for DTI, October Image: E.ON UK plc Department of Trade and Industry, Digest of UK Energy Statistics, 25

9 There is also scope for smaller-scale installations embedded in urban or rural settings. Current models typically generate from 1 to 15kW for rotors borne on masts of 9-3m height. The new feed-in tariffs guaranteeing a reasonable price for electricity sold to utility companies may make small or medium scale installations attractive to enterprises (including farms) and to communities owning sites and installations collectively. Geographical distribution. The County Council Wind Energy Supplementary Planning document demonstrates that the wind resource in Cumbria is greatest on exposed upland sites and along the coast. The County Wind Resource Map confirms that the windiest places include the fell tops and ridge crests in the Lake District, Howgill Fells and the North Pennines and around St Bees Head and other western coastal locations. There are also potentially attractive sites on Orton and Shap Fells in the A6/M6 corridor, which includes a grid line. Small-scale installations could, in theory, be sited in many locations throughout the county. In June 29 there were 17 operational wind farms in Cumbria with 99 turbines and a rated capacity of only 78MW under.8mw per turbine. The vast majority were in the western coastal zone. A further 4 schemes with 13 turbines and an additional 27MW rated capacity had been approved, 12 turbines with 28.5MW capacity were under consideration, and 27 with 72MW capacity had been refused planning permission and were under appeal. Small scale installations of less than 5kW capacity contributed only.3mw in Clearly, these installations exploited only a fraction of the theoretically available potential. Government expects onshore wind to contribute a significant part of the growth it is seeking in renewable energy, so that pressure for additional installations is to be expected 18. Environmental and Social factors. Although Government expects a significant growth in onshore wind energy, it is policy not to sanction large and conspicuous developments in nationally designated landscapes (National Parks and AONBs) or Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). As a large part of Cumbria is designated, this excludes such developments from parts of the Solway Coast and the Arnside and Silverdale shores of Morecambe Bay, almost the whole Lake District, the North Pennines, the western margins of the Yorkshire Dales (including the southern half of the Howgill Fells) and scientifically important areas on Orton Fells. These areas have been excluded from the Areas of Search in the Cumbria and Lake District Joint Structure Plan. In addition a substantial area, including the north Howgills, the area around (Tebay) Borrowdale and Bretherdale, the Mallerstang valley and Orton Fells is currently under scrutiny for National Park/AONB extensions. If these areas are designated, there would also be a presumption against onshore wind farms within them. Areas outside these designated landscapes may none the less be sensitive to wind energy developments and the Cumbria Wind Energy SPD has sought to evaluate the capacity of areas throughout the county to accommodate them. It implies that onshore wind developments are most appropriate in upland areas north east of Carlisle (but where proximity to the Ministry of Defence Spadeadam facility may constrain developments), the coastal zone north of Barrow and east and north-east of Workington and the uplands east of the M6 between Carlisle and Penrith and between the Kent and Lune valleys. Most of the installed capacity is within these areas. Small-scale wind installations are likely to be more acceptable in sensitive landscapes, if no more than 15m high and in groups of not more than 2 or 3 masts, and this is where community-owned or farmscale developments may find a place. However, even in the restricted search area, there is strong local community objection to on-shore wind farms. Economic and Infrastructure factors. Three main concerns are often raised by the community with regard to onshore wind farms in Cumbria: they adversely affect the tourist industry (a major component of the county s economy) because they diminish the attractiveness of the open upland landscape for which the county is widely prized; the visual intrusion and noise diminish property values, and noise can affect health; wind farms are ineffective because of intermittency and the consequent need for back up fossil fuelpowered stations on stand by. On-shore wind energy is stated to cost 3.7pence per kwh, or 6.8p if the stand-by generation is included, as against 2.2p for Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plant (not including CO 2 costs) 19. A 1kW micro-wind generator costs about 5, to install, though this cost is projected to decline to around 3,1 by 22 2 : the advent of feed-in tariffs is likely to increase the attractiveness of such domestic-scale installations. Like nuclear new build, a major expansion of onshore wind in Cumbria would bring a need for new grid connections in many areas, and strengthened capacity in some existing grid lines. Access road networks would be needed, with possible impact on ecology and hydrology. Small-scale installations associated with communities or individual properties would also require linkage. The Government has recently announced commitment to an enhanced electricity transmission network, and to a smart grid able to accommodate small-scale distributed generation 21. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. Design and construction phases for large wind farms often involve specialised companies from outside the sub-region. The large-scale on-shore installations in Cumbria use imported turbines and rotors, and have been built by companies based outside the county, albeit with some local labour. There has been negligible manufacture of components in the county, and while some local firms have contributed to installation (including the construction of access tracks), much of the employment generated has been outside. The installations have also largely been serviced by external companies, although local firms have also been involved in operation and maintenance. Local benefits have come to farmers and other landowners who have received rentals for their land, although other local businesses linked to tourism and owners of local properties have expressed concern over potential adverse impacts. Taken as a whole, large onshore wind farms have brought only limited benefit to the Cumbrian economy. Small-scale installations on or near domestic, community and commercial buildings have so far only penetrated a part of the potential market (.3MW installed capacity according to the 4NW review). The advent of feed-in tariffs and a smart grid should boost the domestic market, and there appears to be a vacant niche for medium sized community-owned installations with perhaps 5kW- 1MW installed capacity, particularly now that financial incentives are to be improved. Such installations, because of their smaller size, are unlikely to attract the opposition encountered by big onshore wind farms. There are some local firms (e.g. Sundog Energy of Matterdale and Turbine Services Limited in Lorton) which might develop this market and bring benefit through employment in installation and servicing 22. It is d, based on existing installations, that approximately.5 jobs are created per 1MW of installed capacity. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. The technology for onshore wind energy is already available and turbine sizes and efficiencies have been increasing. Currently, the limiting factors are planning consent, grid connection and finance. The planning process should be speeded up under the 28 Planning Act, which requires the Government to produce National Policy Statements (NPS) which are subject to parliamentary approval. A suite of energy NPSs including for renewable energy are to be published for consultation in autumn 29. Once formally designated, these will guide the new Infrastructure Planning Commission (IPC) when examining new proposals 23. Local Planning Inquiries will be restricted to evaluating the acceptability of local impact and the scope for mitigation. However this machinery has yet to be tested and the major Opposition parties have said they will amend the legislation if returned to power. Development is also highly dependent on the financial markets and Government incentives including the RO. The intermittent nature of the resource and the development of more constant renewable sources may reduce its relative attractiveness as time passes. Wind farms have a design life of about 25 years, and by 25 some installations may have been reconstituted or decommissioned. In 29 the operational and consented wind farms in Cumbria had a rated capacity of 15MW, and if 5% of the outstanding planning applications and appeals succeed this would add 5MW capacity, although not all of it would be in place within 21. Taking the 23 Axis study and the 4NW Report together, a Cumbrian potential of 2-355MW in 22 emerges. Re-powering existing installations with larger turbines might add 5MW, although this might well also demand enhanced grid connections. There are major uncertainties, but it seems not unrealistic to set the figures at: By MW By 22-25MW By 25-4MW (57 jobs) (112 jobs) (8 jobs) In addition, if 1% of Cumbrian homes were to be supplied by community-level or individually-owned small scale installations this would mean a further 4.1MW of installed capacity The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter Data from Royal Academy of Engineering in association with PB Power. Sundog Energy. Clean Energy Solutions for a Greener World. Brochure with details of Proven wind turbine systems. See also 4NW loc. cit. 23 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter NW Final Report. Towards Broad Areas for Renewable Energy Development, Element Energy & TNS, 27. The growth potential of microgeneration in England, Wales and Scotland. 21 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter 4.

10 Cumbria wind energy Supplementary Planning Document 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria Supporting the Local Development Frameworks of Cumbria Wind energy sites in Cumbria, October 29 Please note that in some areas it may be technically feasible to operate 9.2 Offshore wind wind turbines at speeds of less than 6.5m/second. This map is indicative only. Potential. The offshore wind resource is stronger and Wind Energy Development: Operational 1 Oldside 2 Siddick 3 Winscales 4 Great Orton 5 Swineside* 6 Newlands Mill 7 Haverigg 8 Lowca 9 Harlock Hill 1 Kirkby Moor 11 Lambrigg Fell 12 Far Old Park 13 Black Sail Hut* 14 Wharrels Hill 15 Voridian 16 High Pow 2 Winscales Moor more consistent than over land, and around Cumbria the seas are shallow, making it relatively easy to install masts for wind turbines. As at March turbines with an A7 A7 capacity delivering 3 to 5GW. Nationally, the Government Hallbankgate seeks a very substantial expansion, and is proposing A69 Carlisle Silloth 34 4 Abbeytown 4 18 enhanced financial incentives to developers who place Cumwhinton Dalston orders for new schemes in the coming two years25. Wigton A59 Alston Bothel High Hesket 6 Calthwaite 33 Lazonby Langwathby Bassenthwaite Broughton 1 Caldbeck 14 B5 95 A59 M 6 A Aspatria 35 A596 A66 Cockermouth Penrith Great Clifton Workington A Keswick Distington 42 Appleby Derwent Water Loweswater Ullswater Crummock Whitehaven B5 29 A5 5 Cleator Moor 95 Buttermere Ennerdale 13 A6 Brough A6 6 1 A6 4 Grasmere 19 Rydal Kirkby Stephen A Ambleside Wastwater Sellafield 6 Haweswater Egremont 34 3 Shap Thirlmere A59 B5 Tebay Windermere Gosforth Seascale Windermere 23 Wind Energy Development: Appeal 33 Grise 38 Berrier Hill 4 Newlands Farm 41 Sillfield Coniston Devoke Water M6 Kendal 11 Coniston A595 7 Millom 12 Askam 9 Pennington 9 1 Haverigg 41 Penny Bridge Sedbergh Levens B5 1 A A684 Broughton 26 Grizebeck A5 Bootle A Brampton A689 Wind Energy Development: Application 37 Tallentire Hill 43 Threapland Lees *Schemes within the Lake District National Park are small scale providing power to individual buildings only up to 1 major wind farms, each of 1 turbines of 3-5MW Bowness -on-solway St Bees Wind Energy Development: Refused 21 Hlltop 22 Winash Wind Farm 23 Drigg 24 Fairfield Farm (2) 25 Gunson Height 26 Lowick Beacon 27 Lowick Common 28 Barkin House 29 Firbank Fell 3 Hoff Moor 31 Brownrigg Hall consented. Projections suggest that the potential is for Longtown Maryport Wind Energy Development: Approved 17 Barnscar Fold* 18 Pirelli 19 Laverock Howe* 34 Hellrigg 35 Flimby 39 Armistead 42 Fairfield Farm installed capacity of 1,19MW were either operational or Bewcastle 27 Ulverston Milnthorpe Kirkby Lonsdale Grange-over -sands Dalton Barrow-inFurness Key Lake District National Park Yorkshire Dales National Park Solway Coast AONB North Pennines AONB Arnside and Silverdale AONB This figure is likely only to be realised if existing sites with low-capacity turbines are upgraded. The existing 99 turbines onshore in Cumbria have an average capacity of only.78mw. 25 UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapters 2 and 3. Frontiers of the Roman Empire: Hadrian s Wall - visual envelope St Bees Heritage Coastline Cumbria County Council Boundary Wind Speed > 6.5m/second Image: E.ON UK plc 18

11 Geographical distribution. Two main search areas were identified in the 4NW/Arup study - the approaches to the Solway and off Barrow - and the existing and planned developments are in these areas. Further areas have been identified by the Crown Estates off the coast between Whitehaven and the Isle of Man. All have shallow water and are far enough offshore not to interfere with any possible tidal barrages. Environmental and Social factors. Offshore wind farms do not encounter the same level of opposition from local communities that has proved a major constraint on-shore. Indeed many people find them an attractive element in the marine landscape. They can clearly restrict navigation and fishing, but the two search areas in Cumbria could be accommodated with only small changes to shipping routes. Marine biologists have noted that wind farms can be of value as sanctuaries and nursery areas for marine life 26. On the other hand, there is concern over the acoustic impact of offshore wind farms, especially during construction, on cetaceans which are highly sensitive to underwater sound 27. In the past there has been concern over bird strike (and both Morecambe Bay and the Solway are internationally important for wintering wildfowl), but this now receives less emphasis. The search areas avoid the MOD firing ranges off Drigg Point. As a whole, the Cumbrian offshore locations may not encounter significant social or environmental problems. Economic and Infrastructure factors. Like wind farms on-shore, offshore installations operate intermittently (3%-33% load factor), and being in a more hostile environment are more costly to construct and maintain. Problems seem also to have arisen with turbine gearboxes, making it necessary to refurbish many existing installations. Offshore wind farms also require new grid connectors, road access to service points, and servicing infrastructure. The cost of electricity generated from them is said to be around 5.5p per kwh, rising to 7.2p if the back-up generators (probably using fossil fuel) are included. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. As onshore, much depends on whether inward investment can be attracted for manufacturing locally. At present, offshore wind farms are expected to be built by firms based outside Cumbria, using turbines, masts and other materials manufactured elsewhere. The BWEA Wind at Work report demonstrates that whilst 15.1 jobs can be created annually per 1MW, 8% are typically in the manufacturing heartlands of Denmark, Germany and Spain. However, while experience elsewhere suggests it will be difficult, serious deployment for the Round 3 Crown Estates call in the Irish Sea might provide the impetus needed, particularly since there is considerable Cumbrian expertise in the oil and gas industries. EoN currently employ some 4 FTEs in Workington for the Robin Rigg 18MW facility, now under construction, and it is hoped this may be the base for further Scottish sea developments. Some employment will certainly also continue during the operational phase, but this is likely to be even more limited than with onshore wind. Generally speaking, offshore wind farms are unlikely to bring significant economic benefit to Cumbria unless there is investment in manufacture and supportive infrastructure in the ports of Barrow and Whitehaven 28. Given that a large proportion of the remaining jobs will be from outside the sub region, this study uses the BWEA job cumulative of.4 jobs per 1MW installed capacity. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. The technology for offshore wind farms is well established, though turbine size and efficiency continue to increase. The limiting factors are likely to be finance, influenced by Government policy (such as the level of the RO and other economic instruments) and the relative attractiveness of other sources. Planning consent is not such a severe problem as on-shore, though the extension of the grid network is proving a limiting factor in some regions: Government now seeks urgent action to improve connection arrangements. Taking all factors into account, it seems clear that offshore wind will lead the growth in national and regional renewable energy production in the next decade or longer. The 4NW Report suggested a potential installed capacity of 173MW by 22. This is likely to be surpassed. The suggested scenario, taking the offshore search areas as a whole and assuming installations under construction are completed on time, is: 21-3 wind farms of 9 turbines rated at 24MW (96 jobs) 22-7 wind farms of total of 4 turbines delivering ca 2GW (72 jobs) 25-1 wind farms with 7 turbines and GW capacity ( jobs) Taking onshore and offshore wind energy together, if these projections are anywhere near realistic, by 21 Cumbria will have a total wind energy capacity in excess of 3MW, rising to well over 2GW by 22 and at least 3GW by 25. Actual yields to the grid will be about one third of this capacity. 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria 9.3 Hydropower Potential. In Scotland, hydropower currently provides 1.33GW of electricity, with a 1-MW scheme under construction at Glen Doe. Cumbria, with comparable terrain and rainfall, could have potential for substantial schemes, for example in Lakeland valleys, the Lune gorge and the Eden around Nunnery Walks-Armathwaite. There is also considerable potential for small-scale schemes not involving large dams. In Scotland it has been d that in aggregate these might provide as much as 65MW capacity. Cumbria has similar terrain and a substantial number of existing weirs and dams which could provide hydro power with little additional ecological effect on the rivers. 26 C Hooper. Presentation to Members Conference. Cumbria Wildlife Trust, March E.g.Thomsen, F et al (26). Effects of offshore wind farms on marine mammals and fish. Biola, Hamburg, Germany on behalf of Cowrie Ltd. Image: Coppermines hydro 28 Simon Sjenitzer. Note dated 5 June 29.

12 The 4NW Report recorded an installed capacity of 2.9MW in 29, and the Axis study listed 2 potential sites with a total contribution of 5.2MW, although it recognised that about.6mw of this capacity is unlikely to be developed. Lancaster University Renewable Energy Group (LUREG) has identified some 393 weirs, scattered throughout Cumbria, and 73 dams concentrated in the Lake District and North Pennines 29. There are also a few large dams in the Lake District (Thirlmere, Hawes Water, Wet Sleddale) which are required to release compensation water to rivers. All these should be evaluated for their energy-generating potential. Many are located close enough to communities for the energy derived from low-head hydro to be used to power them directly. Geographical distribution. There are currently 15 operational hydro power sites in Cumbria with an installed capacity of 2.4MW, over half at 5 sites (Coniston, Backbarrow, Glenridding, Lowood and Lodore). A further 5 schemes with a capacity of.65mw are likely to be operational by the end of 21. Cumbria is already a centre of excellence for hydro technology, notably through Gilkes and Inter-Hydro in Kendal; Turbine Services Ltd. in Lorton; Ellergreen Hydro at Burneside, Kendal; Grant Ltd. in Penrith; Agrilek in Barrow and Lakeland Marine in Levens. There is a largely north-west based supply chain including a capacity to provide complex castings. Askam Construction is a specialist hydro-engineer capable of managing several installations a year. The Joule Centre and Lancaster University are currently undertaking a detailed study of hydro potential in the North West. Environmental and Social factors. It is inconceivable that large-scale hydro-power schemes involving the damming of valleys and submergence of cultural landscapes could be contemplated in the Lake District National Park or other areas of prized Cumbrian scenery. Environmental considerations are almost certain to concentrate attention on small scale developments with minimal scenic and ecological impact. The EU Water Framework Directive requires action to prevent the further deterioration of fresh waters and to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies by 215. This requirement is incompatible with developments that imperil fish or aquatic invertebrates. However small-scale and low-head hydro power systems using existing dams and weirs are likely to be compatible with the Directive, and the Environment Agency is issuing guidance for wouldbe developers 3. At all sites, measures to safeguard aquatic life and avoid interference with salmon and trout runs will be needed. Each scheme will need to be evaluated on its merits (with the Environment Agency in the lead). Economic and Infrastructure factors. Capital costs of hydro power are high per unit of electricity supplied, although hydro installations have long life. Small-scale hydro schemes in the 1 to 5kW range cost 2, to 5, per kw of capacity 31. Although the amount of power generated at each location would be modest, because many installations are located in remote places, new smart grid connections are likely to be required. Contribution to Cumbrian economy. There is potential for local employment (with up to 2-3 people in the supply chain for a substantial project). Cumbrian firms have considerable expertise in the design, construction and operation of small-scale hydro power, and while the total scale of this sector will be small by comparison with wind energy, it has the potential to support a number of jobs in the county, partly in manufacture but even more in installation and servicing. Landowners and communities are likely also to benefit from wayleaves and rentals. Gilkes in Kendal employ approximately 13 FTE s and are involved in manufacturing hydro generators and pumps. Furthermore, there is already a significant cluster of consultancies specialising in design, installation and maintenance, especially in the south of the county. Whilst electric output is comparatively low, there is a relatively high benefit to job creation, obviously depending on the number of installations throughout the region as a whole. Based on the current employment pattern, future potential is assessed at 5 jobs per 1MW installed capacity. Because a substantial part of the economic benefit could accrue to firms based in the county, hydro is an important sector for encouragement through Cumbria Vision and the proposed Energy Agency for the county (CASE - Cumbria Action for Sustainable Energy). Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. The current 2.4MW capacity is likely to rise to 3MW by 21. Where weirs and other structures are available, further installations could proceed reasonably swiftly, taking only two to three years from planning to completion. The 4NW study suggested a potential for 14MW capacity yielding 55GWh/yr. If these s are correct, hydro-power is likely to make a modest, albeit valuable, contribution to renewable energy in Cumbria. Likely figures are: By 21-3MW By 22-6MW By 25-1 MW (15 jobs) (27 jobs) (2 jobs) 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria 9.4 Tidal schemes Potential. Tidal range barrages are proven technology (demonstrated, for example, at la Rance in Brittany where a 24MW barrage has been in operation for 4 years). They have high capital cost but are then very efficient energy capture devices. Yields depend critically on design, the maximum output being obtained in a two-way mode, harnessing both ebb and flow. The UK has about 48% of the d European resource 32, the Severn estuary alone having the potential for up to 8.6GW of installed capacity, meeting 5% of UK electricity demand. The Government is evaluating a number of alternative Severn Estuary tidal schemes, costing between 21billion and 2.3billion Environment Agency News Release, 7 August Information from Mark Cropper, Ellergreen Hydro. Image: 29 George Aggidis of Lancaster University: David Rowlands, Integrating Renewable Energy Technology could create competitive advantage for Cumbria. 32 Richard Burrows, University of Liverpool. Submission to Science and Technology Committee Inquiry into Renewable Energy Generation Technologies. 33 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29: DECC (29) Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study: Government response to Phase One consultation.

13 The potential tidal resource around Cumbria has been evaluated as part of the DTI Maritime Energy Atlas. Research by Baker in the 198s revealed that the Solway Firth and Morecambe Bay came second and third among UK estuaries, ranked for tidal potential. HR Wallingford did a detailed modelling and energy assessment study of Morecambe Bay in 25, and most recently Professor Richard Burrows of Liverpool University re-evaluated the potential of all the estuaries in North West England 34. It is d that a 3-km tidal barrage across the mouth of the Solway could produce 5.5-8GW 35 of power, which is only slightly less than a major Severn scheme. A barrage across Morecambe Bay could yield 3GW and a Duddon estuary barrage perhaps 5MW. Because of the tidal phase lag, a major barrage in the north-west could complement a Severn Barrage. Tidal stream devices employ propellers, driven by currents, to power turbines much as a wind energy device does. A 1.2MW device is currently under test in Strangford Narrows, Northern Ireland, while other devices are being tested at the European Marine Energy Centre tidal testing site in Orkney. A recent paper argued that arrays of small and efficient devices deployed in water depths of under 2m could deliver 8MW per sq. km of sea bed 36 and might be a cost effective alternative to a Severn Barrage, with much less environmental impact. If these claims are substantiated, these devices might also be appropriate in the approaches to Morecambe Bay and the Solway. Other devices suitable for mounting on the base of offshore wind towers and adding 5kW per tower to their output (or 43 MW per sq km of sea bed) have recently been proposed by Aberdeen-based Green Ocean Energy 37. Geographical distribution. The major Cumbrian estuaries are all under consideration as possible barrage sites, but current proposals are for relatively modest schemes. Bridge Across the Bay has been investigating the potential for free-stream vertical axis tidal stream technology in Morecambe Bay. The 18-km bridge (providing an enhanced communication corridor between Barrow and the M6 near Morecambe) would support arrays of turbines in the main channels, augmented by wind turbines. It is d that it might have a capacity of 2MW, although there are a number of key unknowns. The Solway Energy Gateway is proposing a 2-km barrage between Bowness-on-Solway and Annan, with two-way energy generation and 3 MW capacity. There is no current proposal for the Duddon Estuary (though this could become a possibility if linked with road and other infrastructure improvements required to serve new nuclear energy installations on the Cumbrian west coast). There are no proposals for open-sea tidal stream arrays around Cumbria, but the potential application of emerging tidal reef technology is currently being considered for the Solway Energy Gateway Proposal. The reef works by channelling tidal current through vertical axis, tidal stream, turbines maintaining the natural flow of the tide (a 2 metre head is needed to start power generation). It has been stated that the technology could be produced locally; it would give an increase in power and would cost 3% less than conventional barrages. Following the Atkins Report commissioned by the RSPB, the technology has the support of some environmental groups. Environmental and Social factors. Morecambe Bay and the Solway are internationally important for their wintering wildfowl and wading birds. Large parts of both are designated under the international Ramsar Convention and as Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), Specially Protected Areas (SPA) or Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) under EU and UK law. Moreover, because tidal barrages could hold back water from inflowing rivers and coastal outfalls, and enclosed lagoons could be warmer than open estuaries, the quality of incoming water might need to be improved so as to prevent algal blooms and other problems. Any scheme would require very careful environmental assessment, and development would have to meet a stringent public interest test. Recognising the particular sensitivity of the inner Solway, Solway Energy Gateway are currently exploring a range of potential options that minimise ecological disturbance 38. Tidal stream devices in the open sea would encounter different questions relating to potential interference with fisheries and navigation, but such devices mounted on offshore wind turbine towers might present few problems, or, indeed, be seen as a beneficial way of augmenting the efficiency of the energy farm as a whole. Economic and Infrastructure factors. By linking Barrow to Morecambe and the M6, the proposed private sector initiative, Bridge Across the Bay might contribute significantly to economic regeneration in Furness. A Duddon road and rail transport link incorporated in a barrage would cut 17 miles off the distance between Barrow and Whitehaven. The Solway Energy Gateway could also boost the ailing economies of North Cumbria and south west Scotland. Construction costs have not yet been d reliably, but s based on experience elsewhere suggest that a 3-km Solway Firth Barrage might cost around 2billion, the 2-km Solway Energy Gateway barrage 4-5million, a 2km Morecambe Bay Barrage 14billion and the 2km Bridge Across the Bay 7million. A 4-5km Duddon barrage might cost up to 1billion: presumably a cheaper alternative would be a bridge supporting tidal stream turbines, albeit with lower energy yields 39. These figures suggest costs in the range of billion per GW (minimum of 5.5p per kwh), with the Morecambe Bay full barrage as the least cost effective. Both the Solway Energy Gateway and Bridge Across the Bay projects could link into the existing grid and transport networks without undue problems, via the decommissioned Chapelcross power station and the Heysham power stations respectively. However if the full barrage schemes for either major estuary or the more modest barrage on the Duddon were considered the grid would need significant enhancement. This is likely to be required in any event if new nuclear power stations are built in west Cumbria. The potential of third generation tidal stream turbines is difficult to assess because these are still at the R&D stage. They have the attraction of being capable of incremental installation, whereas a barrage is all or none. The association of such devices with offshore wind farms, augmenting their output and sharing their connections to shore, is also very attractive in principle. Given the environmental sensitivity of most UK estuaries, the case for evaluating these devices is likely to be strongly pressed. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. If the very largest schemes were to go ahead, they would involve engineering activity at national scale. There would be scope for local employment, and the involvement of local firms in servicing, but as with offshore wind farms much of the economic benefit might accrue outside Cumbria. In contrast, both the Solway Energy Gateway and Bridge Across the Bay schemes are being pressed forward through initiatives based within the county. There is also considerable scope for local employment in maintenance and servicing. It is clear that construction will provide the bulk of jobs, but if the proposals currently under consideration are embraced it could be that the UK could once again develop R&D and manufacturing of test products and be a world leader. While turbine manufacture and construction would probably come largely from outside Cumbria, Bendalls and Gilkes have relevant capability and UK-based R&D for new generation turbines could be attracted. Taking account of analyses for the Solway and Morecambe projects, together with work at Lancaster University and in the two manufacturing companies and an assumption that local firms would be involved in maintenance of bridge infrastructure, the conclusion is that 1 job would be created per 1MW of installed capacity. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. Any bridge or barrage schemes would need to conform to a National Policy Statement issued by Government under the Planning Act, 28, and specific proposals would be evaluated against the NPS and decided by the Infrastructure Planning Commission. A Local Inquiry would examine local impacts and the scope for mitigation. While the new arrangements are intended to speed up the planning process, it is unlikely that any scheme could be implemented much before 215. The NPSs for renewable energy will not be designated until Decisions on a major Solway barrage would almost certainly need to await the outcome of legal processes for which the Severn Barrage would be a test case 41. Because any Solway scheme would be shared between Cumbria and Scotland, especially if the main grid link was via Chapelcross, while a Morecambe Bay scheme would fall partly in Cumbria and partly in Lancashire, their contributions would not be credited solely to Cumbria. Allowing for this, plausible Cumbrian contributions from tidal schemes might be: By 21 - nil By 22-15MW By MW (135 jobs) (1-12 jobs) Obviously were the major Solway barrage to be built together with a Duddon barrage and the Bridge Across the Bay, the total 25 potential could be as much as 1GW, of which 5 GW would be regarded as Cumbrian Nigel Catterson and Hazel Broatch Tidal Potential in Cumbria. See also Burrows, l.c. 35 The higher figure taken from the Burrows Report: the 4NW Report the lower. 36 Stuart Ballard. 3rd Generation Tidal Turbines: too efficient to ignore? 37 Hydro and Marine News, Monday 24 August Nigel Catterson. Note to Merrille Radford on 1 July Catterson and Broatch, loc. cit. 4 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July This point is made in the 4NW Report 24

14 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria 9.5 Wave energy schemes Potential. In theory a substantial amount of energy could be extracted from waves, especially off the turbulent British coasts. A variety of devices has been proposed, some floating and deriving energy from surface waves and others on the sea bed or the shore and exploiting pressure fluctuations. The Government is working to develop a Marine Action Plan by the end of 29 and is supporting a Wave Hub project off the north coast of Cornwall. This will be the world s largest wave energy farm, with four developers testing their devices in sections of a 1km by 3km sea area and a capacity of up to 2MW 42. One of the devices, the Pelamis, is Scottish-built and has a capacity of around.75mw. A new device, the Anaconda, would be up to 2 metres long and have the potential to produce 1MW 43. No can as yet be made of the potential around Cumbria, partly because the technology is still at the research, testing and demonstration stage. However it may be limited because the main Atlantic swell does not penetrate into the land-locked Irish Sea.. Geographical distribution. Arrays of floating wave energy generators might be moored at selected points off the West Cumbrian coast, with connectors running on-shore. The developers of the Anaconda propose groups of 5 such devices, giving 5MW capacity. Sea-bed devices could be located offshore, and coastal devices around the coast, but the latter need to be on vertical walls/cliffs that are partly immersed at all stages of the tide, and such conditions are rare in Cumbria. Environmental and social factors. Wave energy devices could cause concern because of their impact on marine life, navigation and fisheries or coastal scenery, and these factors could restrict their distribution. Floating devices clearly need very robust moorings, and such devices presumably swing in an arc with current and wind, thereby barring a relatively large area to shipping. However moored or seabed devices might possibly be deployed in association with offshore wind farms. On-shore devices are unlikely to be constructed in many locations in Cumbria because most of the shores are soft and gently shelving: the main area of rocky shore lies in a designated Heritage Coast. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. As these systems are currently at the R & D stage it is difficult to their potential contribution to the Cumbrian economy. Large scale deployment off the Cumbrian coastline appears unlikely, and even if it did occur it is unlikely to create many local jobs. However Cumbria could be a suitable location for companies engaged in the manufacture of wave energy devices. Without this development, it is d that only.1 jobs would be created per 1MW installed capacity. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. At present there are no known proposals to tap wave energy in Cumbria. Other parts of the UK such as the south west peninsula and the north and west coasts of Scotland are likely to be the main foci for development. Estimates are essentially speculative at present, but the best guess is for a contribution: By 21 - nil By 22 - nil to 25MW By 25 - nil to 5MW (-2 jobs) (-2 jobs) Economic and Infrastructure factors. Wave energy arrays would obviously need connection to the grid. Off-shore devices would presumably be linked by submerged cables (if wave devices were associated with offshore wind farms they could of course share connectors, reducing costs) The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter Note by Emily Beament, Press Association. The Anaconda, developed by the Checkmate Group, is essentially a flexible rubber tube in which a surge of water is driven by the waves to power a turbine in its tail! The device is under tank test in Gosport. Image of the Solway: 26

15 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria 9.6 Solar energy Potential. In theory the entire annual human energy demand could be satisfied by the solar energy reaching our planet in six hours 44! Solar energy drives the global ecosystem and is the most constant and predictable of renewable sources. Currently, there are two distinct technologies for capturing and using it: photovoltaic (PV) systems that convert solar radiation into electrical current and solar thermal systems that use it to heat water. Large scale solar PV electricity generation plants exist in many parts of the world including European countries such as Germany. However, because both types of solar technology are easily mounted onto or integrated within the fabric of buildings, their main application in the UK is to provide power or heat within the built environment. The level of take-up of these technologies in the UK lags far behind that in other European countries such as Germany or the Netherlands, even though the available solar energy is comparable. In 27 there was a total of 18MW of installed PV electrical generation capacity in the UK. In Germany the figure was 21 times larger, at 38MW (3.8GW), and the 43, PV systems supplied roughly 3% of the country s total renewable power. The discrepancy was more likely to be attributable to the weaker financial incentives in the UK than to climatic factors. Geographical distribution. Solar thermal devices are usually mounted on buildings, especially on the roofs, and PV modules may be mounted on roofs or integrated within the roof, glazing or cladding of buildings. In principle either system could be installed virtually anywhere in Cumbria. Both capture worth-while amounts of energy even in cloudy weather, so that the Cumbrian climate is not an obstacle. Environmental and social factors. There may be environmental objections to large scale PV power production systems because they can be visually intrusive. However they are unlikely to be economically attractive in Cumbria. Solar devices installed on buildings do not pose this problem (except on Listed buildings) and have the merit of providing renewable energy without enlarging the spatial footprint of a development. The systems are relatively easy to install and have a long life expectancy, while solar PV has no on-going maintenance requirements. Photovoltaic cells are produced in a range of different structures and formats, including glass laminates that can replace atrium or conservatory glazing or tiles that integrate with and replace normal tiles in conventional roofs. This range of applications can provide cost effective and visually acceptable options even in relatively sensitive areas. Building Regulations now specify minimum energy efficiency standards for new buildings, and the Code for Sustainable Homes imposes new requirements for house building: from 216 all new homes must be built to a zero-carbon standard 45. These measures provide strong incentives for including renewable energy technologies in new-build housing. Economic and Infrastructure factors. The installation of both PV and solar thermal systems in public and community sectors in the UK is supported through the national Low Carbon Buildings Programme (LCBP). The NWDA has recently introduced similar support for SMEs and public sector projects in the north-west. The demand for solar PV products has so far outstripped that of any other renewable energy technology eligible for support under the LCBP, and in 29 funds have had to be transferred from other sectors to meet the shortfall in the PV budget. The market stimulation policy in Germany has far outstripped that in the UK. In 1999 a 1, Roofs Programme was launched, offering interest-reduced loans for PV systems. In 2 a feed-in tariff was introduced, providing a preferential payment rate for electricity generated from renewables. This drastically reduced the pay-back period for these technologies, radically transformed the market within the country, and boosted the position of German manufacturers and suppliers of PVrelated goods and components within the global market. The UK is due to introduce a feed-in tariff in April 21, although the payment rate has not yet been determined. The result should be a substantial increase in the uptake of solar PV systems over the coming years. Currently the payback period for solar PV and thermal systems is in the 7-15 year range, but by 22 the cost for a 2kW electric PV system is projected to fall from around 1, to around 6, while that of a 2kW thermal system will decline from around 4, to about 3,2 46. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. There is an existing cluster of companies specialising in the installation of solar PV and thermal systems in Cumbria, and several leading figures in the industry are based here. Given this established expertise and market presence and the potential for growth in capacity and in the development of new products and services, there appears to be scope for significant local economic benefit and employment as the market penetration of these systems improves. If the feed-in tariff is encouraging, the rate of economic return on PV systems in particular will increase substantially from 21 onwards. Like hydropower, solar technology tends to create a substantial number of jobs per unit of capacity installed. It would be relatively easy to re-skill heating and plumbing companies to enable them to expand their businesses into this sector alongside the specialised companies that already exist, and as with hydro, this would suit the Cumbria Vision business profile and could benefit greatly through future technology development and the development of Government policy. Figures taken from EPIA and Greenpeace reports published in September 28 suggest 33 jobs created per 1MW of installed capacity. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. The test will be whether the changes in Government financial support structures such as the feed-in tariff, together with regulatory and planning measures such as the Code for Sustainable Homes, stimulate substantial expansion in the installation of solar energy systems. If anything like the German pattern was replicated in UK the impact could be dramatic. It is however extremely difficult to predict market penetration. The current guess is: 21 - < 1MW (33 jobs) 22-2 MW (594 jobs) MW ( jobs) The figure for 22 assumes that by then Cumbria attains the market penetration already existing in Germany in 27, and that for 25 assumes enhanced cost effectiveness. In the domestic market there could be some competition between solar thermal and heat pump systems. 27 Image: Courtesy of Cumbria Rural Enterprise Agency 44 The World Energy Assessment by the UN Development Programme (2) states that the total average power available at the Earth s surface in the form of solar radiation exceeds total human power consumption by a factor of approximately The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan, July 29, Chapter Element Energy & TNS, 27. The growth potential of microgeneration in England, Wales and Scotland. 28

16 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria 9.7 Geothermal energy and heat pumps Potential. Geothermal energy systems tap heat within the Earth. In some regions volcanicity or radioactive decay heat water within the crust to temperatures which make it useful directly as a high-grade energy source: this is so in Iceland. In the UK hot-rock resources at shallow depth are very limited but a geothermal system of 1.4MW (thermal) capacity has been developed for district heating purposes at Southampton and it is proposed to drill a 2m deep hole into the Weardale granite to provide commercial space heating and thermal spa development at Eastgate, County Durham. A further new scheme is currently being developed by EGS Cornwall, in conjunction with the Eden Project. Cumbria, being underlain by massive granites, is second only to Cornwall in the UK in its geothermal heat flux and it has been suggested that a development with many MW capacity could be constructed in the Lake District 47. The Government is currently encouraging companies to explore the potential for deep geothermal power in the UK 48, and it seems likely that Cumbria will be one of the districts examined. The technology involves drilling vertical boreholes, perhaps as deep as 3m, and connecting them by hydraulically fracturing the rock between them: water injected into one hole is heated as it percolates through the rock and returned to the surface up other holes and the steam released is then used to drive a turbine 49. Heat pumps extract low-grade heat from near-surface soil (Ground Source Heat: GSH). In its simplest form a GSH pump system circulates a chilled (ca. to -3 C) antifreeze solution through a coil buried in the soil or set in a vertical borehole. In Cumbria the soil temperature at 1 metre depth is fairly constant at 8-12 C. Low grade thermal energy is absorbed by the circulating solution and returned to the pump which concentrates the energy and supplies hot water (typically at temperatures of around 35 C) to the house. A small amount of energy is used to power the pump, but three to four times as much energy is extracted from the ground, so that the system acts as an energy amplifier. Alternatively, the low-grade heat may be derived from the air (Air Source Heat Pumps: ASHP). Heat pumps are established technology in Sweden, where they are incorporated in 97% of all new houses 5, and they have been used in homes, offices, churches and other buildings in the UK. A properly sized GSHP system should be capable of providing all the space heating and hot water requirements of an individual house, and scaledup systems can meet the needs of larger buildings or provide combined heat and power (CHP). Some systems do, however, require top up energy, probably electrical, to supplement what the heat pump provides. Some heat pump systems can be operated in reverse to provide cooler air when needed in summer. Geographical distribution. Part of West Cumbria appears to have the potential for commercial scale deep geothermal energy generation. However there is a potential difficulty because the hydrofracture technique used to open pathways through the rocks can also trigger seismic activity, and this might be a cause of concern in residential areas or near to any location proposed for deep storage of radioactive waste. Heat pumps (GSHP or ASHP), on the other hand, can be located almost anywhere in the county. Environmental and social factors. Large scale geothermal installations could encounter problems of environmental impact, especially if seismic disturbance was likely. On the other hand, small scale ground-sourced domestic or commercial heat pumps are unlikely to pose serious problems, though the archaeological and ecological impact of excavation to install heat-exchanger coils would need consideration. Vertical borehole systems would have much less impact. The visible impact of an air-sourced heat pump is similar to that of a domestic air-conditioning system. Economic and Infrastructure factors. A number of Cumbrian firms are already able to design and install this technology, though most of the equipment is manufactured outside the UK. The pumps are being used to warm homes and public buildings (including churches, swimming pools and village halls). A GSHP scheme for a typical house costs about 8, if the heat is gathered from a ground loop some 1m long, or 12,- 16, if a borehole is used 51. Air-sourced heat pumps cost about 8,5 for an 11kWth installation. The devices are very reliable if properly installed, and are also durable (2+ years for a heat pump and 5+ years for a ground loop). At an oil price of $2 per barrel the payback period would be 5 to 1 years, but projections suggest that the costs of these installations may be reduced substantially over the coming decade, increasing their attractiveness 52. The Low Carbon Building Programme provides up to 5% grant for schemes installed by not-for-profit organizations, and VAT is only 5% on GSHPs 53. The proposed Renewable Heat Incentive should make them even more attractive. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. Estimates of the potential contribution of deep-rock geothermal developments in Cumbria can only be speculative, but it is possible that they could provide some 1-2MWe of capacity. Heat pumps (GSHP and ASHP) currently supply only a tiny fraction of Cumbria s heat requirements, partly because the technology has not been marketed very effectively. In 24 there were fewer than ten GSHP systems in Cumbria, but the county now at least 25 domestic installations alone, and several others such as the Cumbria Constabulary Headquarters at Carleton Hall, Penrith. Most systems have a capacity of around 12kWth, but the largest is 35kWth giving an d 5kWth in Cumbria. 54 If oil prices continue to rise and marketing improves heat pumps are likely to become increasingly popular, especially in rural areas with no mains gas supply. The systems now available are reliable and long-lasting and in a low-carbon economy based on renewable energy (and nuclear power) the widespread use of GSHPs in particular is a natural fit. As oil prices rise, pay-back periods shorten and the economic attractiveness of these devices increases. The requirement to build all new homes to a zero-carbon standard from 216 is likely to have particular impact, and the take-up is likely also to be significant in new-build offices, schools and commercial developments. If the UK follows the pattern in the United States, Scandinavia, Germany and Austria where such pumps have become standard white goods the market could be huge by 22. By 25, if heat pumps replaced oil in the bulk of Cumbria s rural areas and served 1% of dwellings and a significant proportion of hotels, schools, offices and other public buildings the total installed capacity could approach 5MWth. There would be a consequent major saving in heating oils, and a substantial reduction in CO 2 emissions. There is clearly scope for Cumbrian firms to exploit this market, providing both employment and economic benefit. Expertise already exists and is expanding, and the county economy could gain particularly if an indigenous manufacturing capability were created, perhaps through the existing nuclear supply chain on the West Coast. There would also be a major opportunity for jobs in installation, servicing and maintenance, and more could be done to increase the number of skilled technicians and to develop a capacity for competency accreditation in the county. Taking our knowledge of installations and current job levels into account it is d that 2 new jobs would be created per MW of installed capacity, although some might be counter-balanced by shrinkage in the oil heating sector. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. High oil prices, the Renewable Heat Incentive and the move to zero-carbon homes could provide dramatic stimulus to the installation of heat pump systems. Estimates of installed capacity are: By 21.5MW (all as thermal energy) (2 jobs) By 22 5MWth (1,8 jobs) By MWth (2,-4,16 jobs) Information from Mark Cropper. The project might not be compatible with nuclear waste storage proposals. 48 UK Renewable Energy Strategy, Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter Mark Cropper; Jonathan Steven. Information supplied 5 and 8 June H Tonge. Note supplied, 15 May H Tonge. Information supplied, 18 June. 52 Element Energy & TNS, 27. The growth potential of microgeneration in England, Wales and Scotland. 53 Jonathon Stevens. Information supplied, June Energy Savings Trust, Homes Energy Efficiency Database, November 29. 3

17 9. Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria 9.8 Organic resources (biomass) General. In ecology, biomass is the mass of organic matter in the standing crop of an ecosystem, such as a woodland or a cornfield. The term has been taken over (and distorted) by energy technologists and come to mean the mass of combustible material of organic origin in any volume of material. As a result the term is applied widely to resources of very different kinds including: Methane gas released by uncontrolled anaerobic decomposition in landfill sites or sewage farms and then burned to provide electricity and/or heat; Solid municipal or commercial and industrial wastes, treated by gasification or pyrolysis as an energy source; Food and farm wastes including slurries, capable of anaerobic digestion to yield methane; Combustible fuels, usually dried, derived from crops including wood and burned in power stations or space-heating stoves; Liquid transport fuels (biodiesel, ethanol) derived from energy crops such as maize, oilseed rape or sugar cane and sugar beet. The traditional description of many of these substrates as wastes implies their uselessness, but it is now becoming recognised that they are resources, valuable as providers of energy and reclaimed raw materials and hence, money. The Government s, for example, that anaerobic digestion of food wastes, livestock slurries, sewage sludges and energy crops could contribute 1-2 TWh of heat and power by % to 7.5% of the national renewable energy target 55. However in Cumbria, where much of the biomass resource is likely to come from a large number of widespread sources (farms, small communities, woodlands, field crops) the development of service networks for small scale production units, supply and logistics chains, cost effective transport capacity, storage and pre-processing facilities, management strategies for production and capacity to monitor environmental impact is likely to be crucial 56. Many advocates of biomass energy see it as providing combined heat and power (CHP), and for this to work effectively it needs to be designed into a built development with some assurance that all those in that development will be willing to pay for the heat on offer. This has been a problem, in the past. 55 Defra. Anaerobic Digestion Shared Goals. February Image: Cumbria Woodlands David Robson. Possible Futures for Biomass Energy in Cumbria.

18 9.8.1 Municipal, sewage and industrial wastes Potential. For many decades mixed municipal and industrial waste was dumped in holes in the ground, progressively covered by excavated overburden as the site was filled. For many years these sites were allowed to release polluting leachate to ground water and to vent carbon dioxide and methane to air. More recently, landfill sites have been engineered to protect ground water and tap emerging biogas (typically 66% methane) and burn it to produce usable heat and generate exportable electricity, the latter often also used to power the works. Sewage works have likewise been tapping methane ( sewage gas ) as an electricity source and marketing sludge as a soil conditioner for many years, although heavy metal contamination and low fertiliser value limit the use of the latter. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. It seems unlikely that the energy contribution from landfill sites will rise much above today s 9MW, and by 25 it should be declining steeply. The water industry is expected to increase its anaerobic digestion of organic matter in sewage, as well as maximising the use of treated sludge and co-digested organic material on land. The Axis study suggests that Carlisle is the only Cumbrian conurbation large enough to support a biomass plant with 19.5MW capacity but it is not clear whether this would involve a large central waste segregation plant, linked to its own CHP or power station (it has generally been asserted that such plant is only economic in cities of upwards of 1 million inhabitants). Combustion of municipal waste may expand as landfill contracts, but it is realistic to set the combined total at no more than 15MW. There is an obvious potential to expand anaerobic digestion of sewage and food wastes, but the critical factor is likely to be the scale of material available and the transport costs. Guessed market penetration in Cumbria, assuming a large waste-based plant at Carlisle, is: By 21-1MW (19 jobs) By 22-25MW (427 jobs) By 25-25MW (19 jobs) Two recent trends are evident. One is reducing the volume of material entering the waste stream, and the other is for more efficient use of the materials that do go to sewers or municipal disposal sites. The Government s that if all the food and wood waste sent to landfill were used to generate energy it would provide 42TWh, or approximately 18% of the national renewable energy target 57. The EU Landfill Directive requires a major reduction in the amount of municipal waste sent to landfill, so local authorities are promoting the sorting of materials upstream by consumers and at recycling sites and themselves segregating paper, metals, glass and compostable organic materials for re-use (though with difficulty in volatile markets). Some conurbations have developed large-scale waste sorting plant, the organic matter either ending as compost or as combustible pellets, burned to yield combined heat and power. However, the north-west region lags behind the national average in only using 3% of its municipal waste and.65% of its commercial and industrial waste as an energy source 58. Food waste is currently a major problem in Cumbria, but it is also a significant potential source of energy 59. Sewage farms have likewise intensified their use of organic matter as an energy source or compost, while the industry has adopted a far more parsimonious approach to waste arisings, partly forced by tighter regulation of discharges to air and water. By 28 two thirds of the UK s sewage sludge was being treated by anaerobic digestion, and the water industry planned to generate.8twh/y of electricity from this source by Defra expects that by 22 at least 2% of the energy used by this industry in the UK will come from renewable sources, with anaerobic digestion making a major contribution. Severn Trent already operates 3CHP plants in its region, contributing 1.3% of the renewable energy generated in the UK 61. One of its anaerobic digestion plants takes in 264m³/day producing 1, kwh of electricity and twice as much energy in the form of usable heat 62. Geographical distribution. Landfill gas is currently tapped at 5 sites in Cumbria (Bennett Bank, Barrow; Flusco, Penrith; Hespin Wood, Carlisle; Kendal Moor and Lilyhall, Workington). Together these provide 9MW of energy. In theory this kind of energy source could be developed in any conurbation large enough to generate sufficient waste. Social and environmental factors. Methane is 21 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO 2, so that preventing its release is in itself environmentally beneficial, over and above its use to generate electricity. While all new landfill sites are engineered to contain and tap methane, current policy is progressively to reduce this form of waste disposal so that it is likely to be a diminishing energy source. Organic waste will however continue to arise, and so must find alternative disposal. Municipal incinerators deriving energy from waste have been opposed in the past because of allegations that they release carcinogenic dioxins: modern efficient burners avoid this problem but communities are still hostile to having such plant in their vicinity. Economic and Infrastructure factors. The generation of energy from landfill gas and municipal solid wastes is commonly seen as a means of obtaining economic return from, and hence reducing costs of, an otherwise expensive social necessity. To be fully effective these expensive installations need to handle larger volumes of material than any conurbation in Cumbria produces. However the legal requirement to phase out landfill makes it almost certain that the number of municipal incinerators will increase. Contribution to Cumbrian economy. These projects are undertaken either by municipalities or utility companies. The former already maintain substantial work forces in collecting, sorting and disposing of waste and growth in this energy sector is likely partly to involve re-deployment of people currently servicing landfill. However as energyefficient systems, associated with recycling, gain ground there should be scope for expanded employment. The same should hold for energy from sewage, though the companies involved are based outside the county. It is clear that landfill sites provide a diminishing return, especially as the number of sites falls. However, employment figures are available from work conducted by Quantum and Regeneris, which looked at the wider field of municipal, sewage and industrial wastes, and from the contract signed with Shanks to provide two MBT plants in the county for municipal waste treatment. This suggests 19 jobs per 1MW installed capacity Anaerobic digestion of farm wastes Potential. Defra and the NFU share the objective of 1 farm-based anaerobic digestion plants by 22, alongside at least 1 waste-linked facilities in which farmers may also have an interest 63. Cumbria is second only to Devon in its concentration of dairy cattle (the Solway Plain is the third most important dairy farming area in England, with 114, cows in milk, 9% of the national herd). In total, the county has 474, head of cattle (8% of the national herd) 64. A typical herd of 25 cows generates 8m³ of slurry a day, which if digested anaerobically yields up to 5m³ of biogas 65. This gas is approximately 6% methane and 4% CO 2 and if burned the arisings from a farm would yield approximately 15kW of heat energy or 5kWh/day of electricity (2kWh/day per cow, equivalent to 8watts capacity). It follows that if all the slurry from the county s dairy cows could be digested there would be a potential electricity generating capacity of some 38MWe. However cattle slurry makes up only some 25% of potential farm waste (by volume) and being largely water, has a relatively low energy density. Efficient biogas production depends on blending it with other organic matter (such as silage, waste potatoes, chicken farm wastes or food wastes), and a digester requires a fairly consistent mix of constituents. Some proposals for anaerobic digestion assume that at least two thirds of the energy supplied would be as heat, but it is possible to take 95% of the energy as electricity. Geographical distribution. Anaerobic digestion of farm arisings is well established in Denmark and Germany, but has been slow to develop in the UK where there are only 3 large plants, none in Cumbria. However CoRE (Community Renewable Energy NW) is currently developing a collaborative plant on the Blackdyke Industrial Estate near Silloth which will use proven German technology 66. It will take in 2, tonnes of slurry, 15, tonnes of surplus silage and 3 tonnes of chicken manure from 15 farms and generate about 8 million kwh/year of electricity (equivalent to 1MW installed capacity), somewhat less energy in the form of useful heat and a large volume of sterilised digestate valuable as a fertiliser 67. Four more collaborative plants are being planned, and there is potential for co-generation using municipal food wastes and farm wastes. Social and Environmental factors. The anaerobic digestion of farm wastes appears to be a win-win technique with major environmental and social gains. Slurry is currently the largest single source of pollution of British watercourses, and is a major issue for the Solway basin, the Eden and the Derwent. Pollution of ground water is also a serious concern, especially in Nitrogen Vulnerable Zones which now extend over much of the catchments of the rivers Eden, Eamont, Ellen and Derwent 68. Anaerobic digestion greatly reduces this risk and obviates the need for storage of large volumes of slurry in winter, when it cannot be applied to the land. It provides income from the sale of electricity and of marketable Renewable Obligation Certificates and generates a residual liquid fertiliser (digestate) high in nitrogen and phosphate and containing some potassium, thus cutting back on the need for artificial fertilisers and reducing the associated carbon dioxide production 69. Participating farmers should benefit economically, and the benefits will flow through the wider community. Economic and Infrastructure factors. Anaerobic digestion of farm wastes can be a profitable venture, especially if groups of farms collaborate and slurry can be blended with crop wastes, silage, chicken farm arisings or even municipal food wastes, and if transportation distances and costs can be minimised. CoRE (NW) that their initial venture at Silloth will provide an additional 14, a year to the participating farms, save substantial storage and fertiliser costs, create some new jobs and improve the quality of life for farmers The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter Envirolink Northwest and NW Energy Council. Energy from Waste Explained Information form Keith Richardson, CoRE, August Defra, Anerobic Digestion Shared Goals. February 29. H. Tonge. Memo, 3 March 29 J. Knox, CoRE, l.c. 61 Defra, l.c. 62 Note by H Tonge. 63 Defra, l.c. 64 J. Knox. Memao, 6 April Community Renewable Energy NW. Farm-based anaerobic digestion February CoRE NW. Silloth Middle Farm AD Plant. Feasibility Study. 69 Keith Richardson, CoRE. Information supplied, August CoRE NW, l.c.

19 Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. It is clear that substantial growth in this sector could bring significant benefits to the Cumbrian economy. This will not be in manufacture, since the equipment is very likely to be imported, particularly from Germany. However some 6% of the construction costs will be spent locally and servicing will employ local people. There are substantial resources of under-used arable land in Cumbria which could be used to produce grass or other crops that could join the energy-generation stream. There is clearly potential for significant benefit to the farming community. Industry figures supplied by Quantum and based on the first 1MW installation at Silloth suggest creation of 21 jobs per 1MW installed capacity. If this sector develops as suggested below, employment could increase to 15 jobs by 25. Prospective contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. Anaerobic digestion of farm and other wastes appears to have a substantial growth potential in Cumbria, especially in areas with dairy and chicken farming and available surplus silage or crop wastes. If a quarter of the county s dairy herds could be brought into collaborative ventures, as at Silloth, they might produce 88,kWh/day of electricity (equivalent to 4MW installed generating capacity). An uncertain proportion of the energy obtained would in fact be taken as heat. Realistic projections for capacity suggest: By 21 - < 2MW (42 jobs) By 22 - ca 2MW (378 jobs) By 25 - ca 5MW (42 jobs) Woodfuel in Cumbria Potential. Wood-burning is the traditional heat source for humanity and (with charcoal and agricultural wastes) still provided between 3% and 95% of all energy used in developing countries in the 197s 71. Because trees are part of the active carbon cycle and abstract CO2 from the atmosphere at rates that more or less balance emissions from wood-burning and decomposition, wood is a carbon-lean fuel. It is widely used in Europe, and there is potential for substantial expansion of its use in the UK, where the Forestry Commission aims to bring an additional 2 million tonnes of wood fuel to market by In addition, the Commission s Woodfuel Strategy for England 73 identified a potential to recover 6 million tonnes of wood currently going to landfill. This may not be a major resource in Cumbria but wood is now likely to be segregated at construction sites and recycling centres. The main potential in Cumbria comes through the improved management of the county s woodland for wood production, since half of it is currently either under-managed or completely unmanaged. Geographical distribution. Some 9.5% (64,582 ha) of the land area of Cumbria is wooded. Almost half (45.5%) is conifer plantation, the remainder being broadleaved (36.5%) or mixed woodland (8.2%). A large proportion of the county s woods is to be found in the far north east, adjoining Kielder Forest, and in the southern Lake District, with substantial areas at Whinlatter, Thirlmere and in the Eden Valley. Social and Environmental factors. Virtually none of the woodland in Cumbria is natural in the sense of retaining the structure and species composition that existed prior to human settlement. However the county does have 9,5ha of Ancient Semi-Natural Woodland 74. Some is of high scientific importance, and some may not be accessible or suitable for management for fuelwood production. Many of Cumbria s under-managed woodlands would, however, gain in biodiversity and aesthetic quality from management, for example by rotational coppicing or rotational felling of small areas, then left to regenerate naturally. Besides helping to achieve national renewable energy targets and increase local employment, such management would enhance landscape quality, biodiversity and tourism and help adaptation to climate change 75. Grants exist for the creation of new woodlands and these would enhance Cumbria s sinks for CO 2 as well as help sustain a fuelwood industry. Economic and Infrastructure factors. Current emphasis (led by the Forestry Commission and Cumbria Woodlands) is on actively promoting better management to yield a sustainable fuel for use in small and medium-scale boilers providing heat. Wood chips are the preferred product, though wood pellets offer advantages in some circumstances: in either case the carbon footprint is minimised if the fuel travels the shortest possible distance from the woodland to the end user The World Environment, A Report by the United Nations Environment Programme. Dublin: Tycooly Press 72 Woodfuel Strategy for England. The Forestry Commission, strategy.pdf/sfile/fce-woodfuel-strategy.pdf Peter Fox. Comments on draft text, 9 June 29. Image: Cumbria Woodlands 75 The University of Cumbria has recently been funded to examine the biodiversity and economic benefits of managing woodlands for biomass energy production. 76 Peter Fox, loc. Cit.

20 The Commission and Cumbria Woodlands are actively promoting such wood-fuelled systems, in partnership with major local firms. Cumbria already has the UK s largest biomass trading company (A W Jenkinson), England s sole virgin wood pulper (Iggesund) and BSW sawmills in Carlisle 77. At least two companies have already invested in appropriate chipping and drying equipment and several others are looking at briquette-making options 78. One option is an integrated wood pellet plant capable of producing 1, tonnes of wood pellets a year from debarked logs 79. Early in 29 there were ten modern, efficient woodchip or log-burning systems in the county, with capacities between 25kWth and 25kWth. The number of domestic and commercial systems burning wood pellets was also increasing. In the first four months of 29 Cumbria Woodlands assisted six applications to the Bioenergy Capital Grant Scheme for support for wood heating systems with a total installed capacity of around 7kWth 8. Once uncertainties over assured sources of supply and markets are removed, investment in such equipment would be stimulated. Already the increased popularity of wood-burning domestic stoves has raised the price of firewood, and this has made the management of previously neglected woodlands more economic. However, while welcome as substituting for fossil fuels, it should be remembered that in terms of carbon emissions it is less efficient to burn wood in this way than in modern gasification boilers 81. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. The expansion of woodland management and the development of a fuelwood industry might create 25-3 jobs (DTI and Cumbria Woodlands, working in conjunction with the Forestry Commission, alike 2 jobs per MW installed) 82. Other jobs would be created in the industries concerned with manufacture and installation of boilers and domestic wood-burning stoves. A lot of work has been done in the county already to build the market and supply chain. If demand for fuelwood rises, prices will go up, making woodland management more profitable and bringing economic benefit to landowners whose unmanaged woodlands currently provide no return. Recent experience in the county has demonstrated that the significant saving in energy bills and the reduced volatility of energy prices following a switch to woodburning heating systems has helped enterprises to safeguard existing employment. An increase in the price for carbon would both stimulate the expansion of woodlands and boost the demand for biomass. If 5% of Cumbrian homes were to use wood for half their domestic heating this would mean a market of 1, households and the substitution of at least 1 million litres of heating oil, saving 26, tonnes of CO 2 per annum. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. It is d that if half of the county s under-managed woods were brought into sustainable production they could provide an annual yield of 39, tonnes of wood. If we assume that Cumbria will access similar proportions of the other sources of wood for renewable energy production (which seems reasonable given the presence of processors such as Iggesund, BSW and Jenkinson in the county), we could assume at least a quadrupling of supply to 16, tonnes. This is probably still a conservative given the potential future changes to the price of carbon and the impact of the proposed Renewable Heat Obligation. Any expansion of native woodlands on amenity grounds or as carbon sinks would add further to this potential resource. Competition for timber from existing managed woodlands is also likely to increase with some of this material entering the wood fuel market and giving opportunities to benefit the Cumbrian economy further by adding value locally. To give some measure of the extent of potential it is worth noting that the Forestry Commission produces between 4, to 5, tonnes of timber per year within the county. If this wood was fed into small-scale boilers (which is only one of several potential ways of using it) it could feed 18 boilers, yield 548, MWh/yr of thermal energy and save 144, tonnes of CO Given the relative ease of access to these resources, the availability of boilers and the current level of boiler installation, it is assumed that the uptake will be rapid. While it is likely that most of the fuelwood will be used to supply heat rather than CHP or electricity, taken as MW of potential capacity figures might be: 21-1MWth (2 jobs) MWth (18-72 jobs) MWth (16-48 jobs) Energy crops Potential. Other energy crops (willow coppice or Miscanthus grass) can be grown as a fuel for CHP plants or to generate electricity, while crops such as oilseed rape, sugar beet, sugar cane, maize and oil palm are variously grown as feedstock for liquid transport fuels (biodiesel or ethanol blended into petrol). Brazil has been producing an alcohol-containing gasohol for nearly half a century. An experimental 1MW power station constructed at Eggborough in Yorkshire was intended to burn wood chips from willow coppice and would have needed to cut and dry the produce of about 3ha per annum 84. It did not succeed, and no such facility has been proposed in Cumbria, but the University of Cumbria is researching the potential of willow coppice and has also studied the potential of oilseed rape as feedstock for biodiesel. The Government is funding an Energy Crops Scheme to support the planting of woody coppice and Miscanthus 85. Geographical distribution. At present only a very small amount of land in Cumbria is devoted to growing energy crops (other than fuelwood). However the University of Cumbria is currently powering most of its vehicle fleet, and will shortly heat two teaching buildings, from biodiesel derived from oilseed rape. The next stage will be the further development of the process in partnership with other farmers, using a biodiesel production unit at the University 86. Previous studies (funded by Defra) have shown that oilseed crops are economic in Cumbria, though the actual level of biodiesel production from this source will depend on the relative economics of the process as compared with food production and will be strongly influenced by variations in the price of oil. Cultivation of woody coppice, Miscanthus or of sugar beet or maize as feedstock for ethanol is clearly also only likely to be economic on land suitable for other arable crops, so that production will depend on relative costs and returns. Environmental and Social Factors. Current s by the University of Cumbria point to a saving of 3 tonnes of CO 2 for every tonne of biodiesel produced from oilseed rape 87. These figures are backed by recent literature where biodiesel production produces only 2% of the CO 2 emissions of conventional transport fuel production 88. There is, however, some concern over the visual, ethical and ecological consequences of substituting energy crops for food crops, especially in a world where food shortages are predicted. Economic and Infrastructure factors. Given the current excise charges on biodiesel the most likely scenario is for farmers to produce biodiesel for their own transport and heating needs. This will obviously contribute to farm incomes, which could benefit further if energy crops gain in economic attractiveness. Uncertainties in this area demand further research. Wider substitution of biodiesel for petroleum-derived fuel is likely to depend on fiscal incentives. Some reports also suggest that the economic return from willow coppice is below break-even despite a 4% grant towards the cost of planting 89, and the Government now intends to increase the grant to 5%. Grid connection may also be a factor in the economics of biomass-based electricity generation. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. It is impossible to forecast the scale of growth in energy crops in the county. If they do penetrate the market this will to a considerable degree be as substitutes for food crops and the total employment pattern may not change. However, should the production of farm-based biodiesel become popular its production is likely to depend on mobile plant, and its supply and servicing would generate some employment. The cutting, drying and chipping of coppice wood or the drying of grass would also involve special equipment and its operation and servicing, together with that of the plant to use this fuel would obviously create some employment. It has been d that 24 jobs might be created per 1MWth installed capacity. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria s Renewable Energy targets. It does not seem possible to the contribution of energy-crop fuelled CHP or electricity generation in Cumbria at the present time. Biodiesel production clearly has a future, but initially at the farm level only Neville Elstone, loc. cit David Rowlands. Integrating renewable energy technologies could create competitive advantage for Cumbria. 88 Farrell, A E, Plevin, R J, Turner, B T, Jones, A D, O Hare, M, and Kammen, D N: Ethanol can contribute to energy 77 David Robson. Possible Futures for Biomass Energy in Cumbria. 8 Neville Elstone. Memorandum to MWH dated 13 May Peter Fox, l.c. 82 Peter Fox, l.c. 83 Peter Fox, Note to Renewables Panel, Neville Elstone, loc cit: Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Energy the Changing Climate, The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 29, Chapter David Robson, Possible Futures for Biomass Energy in Cumbria. 87 David Robson. Data supplied on 2th May 29. and environmental goals. Science, 311 (27 January 26), A. Arbuckle, Business Scotsman, 21 August 29.