55 th COCERAL Annual General Meeting 10 th May 2013, Athens, Greece IGTC Secretary: Dennis Stephens

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1 55 th COCERAL Annual General Meeting 10 th May 2013, Athens, Greece IGTC Secretary: Dennis Stephens - 1

2 Pleasure! Congratulations on theme! Staying ahead of the curve 5 panelists we have heard from four Long term challenges to feed growing global population Specific security challenges of Eastern Mediterranean Global shipping challenges Africa s food and fuel security challenges The environment has been set! Now as the 5 th panelist: What are the Do s and the Don ts for the grain trade to keep staying ahead of the curve! But first, from whence I come? - 2

3 IGTC International Grain Trade Coalition International Grain Trade Coalition formed in 2001 to advise governments on implementation of the Biosafety Protocol to protect global biodiversity while meeting the needs of the world s food, feed and processing industries Mandate broadened beyond Biosafety Protocol in 2002 to include advice to governments on the commercial requirements and economics of the world s food, feed and processing industries IGTC scope refined in 2006 to focus existence on the goal of avoiding disruptions in the international trade of grain, oilseeds, pulses and derived products. - 3

4 IGTC Membership - 22 Organizations / 8000 Members / 80 Countries COCERAL CGC GAFTA RGU NAEGA, NCGA, NGFA, USGC, USW, CRA, ANIAME, APPAMEX CNFA CNAGS CAPECO ABIOVE ANEC CEC SOPA SESPA GTA, AGEA 4

5 What are the issues? There are many issues, but today will focus on two: Grain production Global trade - 5

6 Grain production challenges Increased weather variability caused by climate change Limited new land area Must increase production per unit of land area in both developed and developing countries Must focus on embracing new technologies Increase yield per unit of land area Improve plants resistance to increased pest hazards including weeds, insects, disease and too wet, too dry, too cold, too hot Must focus on capacity building Take new technologies to producers Developed and developing countries Must focus on post harvest loss control - 6

7 Scale of operations

8 New technologies

9 Transport from field to farm storage

10 Prevent post harvest loss

11 Don ts: Produce less! What do we need to do to stay ahead of the curve? Send our scientists into their laboratories with one hand tied behind their backs Do s: Embrace innovation Encourage more effective public/private plant breeding partnerships Improve plant genetics to increase production under greater environmental variability Encourage more effective public/private capacity building partnerships focused on the developing world - 11

12 Global grain trade buyers and sellers North America Europe Russia Ukraine East Asia Caribbean Central America North Africa Middle East South Asia Southeast Asia Imported South America Sub- Saharan Africa Oceania Exported - 12

13 FAO global trade estimates Today: 2.5 billion metric tonnes production 300 million metric tonnes trade 12% of total demand billion metric tonnes production 600 million metric tonnes trade 15% of total demand Trade must double from areas of surplus to areas of deficit by 2050 to meet global food security requirements - 13

14 Trade challenges Increased demand to meet global food security requirements Increased regulatory burdens driven by international bodies such as Codex, Biosafety Protocol, IPPC Food safety /biotechnology/phytosanitary Zero thresholds Science of detection exceeds capability of bulk handling system Increased financial risk Commodity price increases / size of shipments Threat of market disruptions New approaches needed to encourage governments to adopt innovative market access trade policies such as: Low level presence International phytosanitary grain standard - 14

15 Domestic and international movement relies on common supply and use pathways EXPORT DOMESTIC Food, Feed and Processing Consumer - Food, Feed, and Processing 15

16 Scale of operations

17 Bulk grain transport 1 Panamax (50K tons) = 38 barges = 2200 semi trailers = 2M bushels = 330 trillion soybeans 50 K Tons = 30 million US dollars

18 Costs to manage are not linear At very low % costs are prohibitive and markets collapse Cost At lower %, avoidance costs rise exponentially At higher avoidance has minimal cost impact on food % allowed

19 World bulk grain systems summary Trans-boundary bulk movements of grain are used for food, feed or processing. The Trade (Buyers and Sellers) works on razor thin margins to provide for timely, low cost, high quality and often high volume supply. Avoiding interruption of shipments is critical. Predictable, least trade distortive official measures are needed

20 Staying ahead of the curve Don ts: Stop trading! Delay Free Trade Agreement negotiations Do s: Advocate new policies in FTAs to minimize non tariff trade barriers Science based regulatory systems Commercially acceptable solutions Risk mitigation methods commensurate with risk Regulatory system integrity, predictability and reliability Consistent and notified requirements that enable markets to function and provide for proportionate and effective risk mitigation and management Appropriate measures that allow grain systems to maximize the value of the grain product and minimize cost inefficiencies along the supply chain - 20

21 Staying ahead of the curve Do s continued: Embrace innovative approaches to addressing market access issues IGTC Coalition of sovereign trade associations develop commercial approaches to achieve exporter, importer and government objectives on key market access files IGTC members advocate consensus policies to respective governments Grain trade interests most likely if major trading partners advocate similar policies Identify potential trade issues before political positions become fixed Current Policies: Low Level Presence Canadian LLP template FAO food security initiative International Phytosanitary Grain Standard Exclude seed, LMOs, quality, food safety and traceability? Challenge: historically a bilateral issue now creating a global approach how to make it work to the advantage of trade? - 21

22 Staying ahead of the Curve Conclusions: Exciting opportunities Many challenges International grain trade is a global industry Global industries require a global approach IGTC is COCERAL s global approach to stay ahead of the curve! - 22

23 Thank you COCERAL for your continued support to IGTC! - 23

24 Today - Global Production and Trade Roughly 300 million metric tons about 12 percent of total demand enter into world cereal & oilseed trade, improving diversity of foods, improving nutrition & filling food needs in deficit areas World food trade helps assure adequacy of diet for nearly a billion people today by complementing local & regional supplies Source: Bruinsma, Jell. The Resource Outlook to 2050 FAO Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in

25 Tomorrow More Trade and Production Bruinsma, Jell. The Resource Outlook to 2050 FAO Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050 Trade s complementary role grows more crucial, & will outplace market growth 1.5 BMT more from the world s bread baskets & other areas is needed Areas of optimal land/water may contribute most with least environmental stress An estimated 600 MMT of grains & oilseeds from areas of surplus about 15 percent of total production will be transformed & delivered for consumer needs

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