VLIR-BVO project 2003 Elaboration of the concept of ecological debt Presentation of the Final Report September 2004 Research groups: Centre for Sustainable Development (Ghent University) Department of International Public Law (Ghent University) Department of Plant Production (Ghent University) Flemish Platform on Sustainable Development Erik Paredis Gert Goeminne Wouter Vanhove Jesse Lambrecht
Overview 1. Core research State of affairs, definition, methodology, frame of reference 2. Multilateral Environmental Agreements Status in international law, obstacles, solutions 3. Energy and climate change Application for Belgium 4. Agriculture and food supply Application for Belgium 5. Policy implications Historical responsibility, daily accumulation, recognition
1. Core research Erik Paredis Centre for Sustainable Development Ghent University
A state of affairs Main conclusions: No univocal definition No uniform methodology for calculation Limited discussion on political translation Still, adds a meaningful new dimension to sustainability and North-South debate: historical perspective, reversal of debtor-creditor relation, daily accumulation, articulation of comparable experiences At this stage of development: utility in international negotiations restricted Some causes: Bottom-up development through NGO campaigning Limited scientific literature and support Developing phase
Defining (1): working definition Ambition: cover contents AND enhance utility of the concept The ecological debt of country A consists of: 1) The ecological damage caused over time by country A in other countries or in an area under jurisdiction of another country through its production and consumption patterns, and/or 2) the ecological damage caused over time by country A to ecosystems beyond national jurisdiction through its consumption and production patterns; and/or 3) the exploitation or use of ecosystems and ecosystem goods and services over time by country A, at the expense of the equitable rights to these ecosystems and ecosystem goods and services by other countries or individuals
Defining (2): refinements Working definition The ecological debt of country A consists of: (1), and/or (2), and/or (3) Possible refinements What is ecological damage? Pollution, depletion, degradation Damage/use according to geographical scale? Global, continental, fluvial, regional, local Equitable rights to ecosystem services? Defining equity Selecting ecosystem goods and services Who are debtors and creditors? Countries Present and future generations Actors Which quantification? Physical or monetary Which time perspective? Each refinement its own time perspective
Methodology: calculating ecological Ecological damage debt Ecological debt Use at the expense of equitable rights Monetary valuation Monetary valuation Indicators for pollution, depletion, degradation (DPSIR) Ecological footprints Environmental Space Material Flow Analysis
Scientific frame of reference Biophysical accounting systems Ecological economics Eco debt Historical injustices and restitution Environmental justice and human rights
Conclusions Adds a meaningful new dimension to sustainability and North-South debate: historical perspective, question of daily accumulation, reversal of debtor-creditor relations, articulation of comparable experiences At this stage of development: utility in international negotiations restricted BUT Possible to formulate a suitable definition Possible to work on a consistent methodology for calculation, physical and monetary Possible to further develop the concept through the use of building blocks in a scientific frame of reference
2. Module Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) Jesse Lambrecht Department of International Public Law Ghent University
Outline Status of ecological debt in international environmental law MEAs Case law Other links Obstacles for introducing ecological debt Towards solutions
Status of ecological debt in int. environmental law MEAs Case law Other links
MEAs No direct reference Links with the concept of ecological debt: principles and mechanisms Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities Principle of intra- and intergenerational equity Polluter-pays principle Adaptation Fund (Kyoto Protocol) Equitable Benefit Sharing (CBD and ITPGR)
Case law No direct reference Links with the concept of ecological debt: State Responsibility The Alien Tort Claims Act? Cases before Human Rights Commissions / Committees?
Outline Status of ecological debt in international environmental law MEAs Case law Other links Obstacles for introducing ecological debt Towards solutions
Obstacles Sovereign rights of states: Basic principle in International Law Principle 21 Stockholm Declaration: balancing? Most links are future-orientated Use of natural resources with equitable compensation?
Outline Status of ecological debt in international environmental law MEAs Case law Other links Obstacles for introducing ecological debt Towards solutions
Towards solutions Compensation for a historical debt A growing state practice? Extensive interpretation of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities A litigation-based approach Preventing a further build-up up of the ecological debt Human rights Common heritage of mankind and common concern of mankind Intergenerational equity
Conclusions No clear legal obligation in MEAs No clear legal support in international case law Several links found: Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and Polluter-pays principle seem to be the most suitable to develop a legal basis for the concept. Need for further research
3. Module Energy and Climate Change Gert Goeminne Centre for Sustainable Development Ghent University
Overview Fossil energy consumption & CO 2 emissions in Belgium Fossil energy and ecological debt in a global context Ecological debt and fossil fuel consumption/depletion The Carbon Debt Conclusions
Fossil fuel consumption in Belgium 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Consumption (1000 TOE) Year Coal Gas Nuclear Total gross energy consumption Import electricity Petrol Total fossil Renew ables + Recuperation Wood
Energy (Self) Supporting Rate Energy (Self) Supporting Rate 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Supporting rate (%) Year Self-supporting rate Imported coal Imported petrol Imported gas Nuclear Imported electricity
Import raw fossil fuels 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Quantity (1000 TOE) Others Australia USSR Middle-East Africa South-America North-America Europe Year
150000 125000 100000 75000 50000 25000 0 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 CO 2 from fossil fuels Year Total Coal Oil Gas CO2-emissions (1000 ton)
Ecological debt Ecological damage due to 1. Extraction activities (degradation & pollution) 2. Depletion of fossil fuel reserves 3. Climate change from CO 2 emissions Exploitation/use of ecosystem goods at the expense of the equitable rights of others 1. CO 2 absorption capacity 2. Fossil fuel reserves
Ecological debt and fossil fuel consumption/depletion Per capita fossil consumption (TOE) 5 4 3 2 1 0 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year World Belgium Proven World fossil fuel reserves (BP, 2002): 850 billion TOE = 140 ton/capita
Determining the Carbon Debt Sustainable level: : 60% reduction (cfr( cfr.. 1990) no absolute levels of sustainability to stabilise the world s s climate & to avoid worst consequences (IPCC) Kyoto reduction for Belgium: 7,5% Equitable rights: : equal per capita? atmosphere belongs to nobody varying geographical, climatic, conditions adjusted egalitarianism
The Belgian Carbon Debt 16 14 Ton CO2/capita 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Sustainable level (60% reduction - 1990) Belgium total carbon debt = 5787 million ton CO 2 (Cfr:: total CO 2 emission in 2001: 115 million ton)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Debtors and creditors Debtors and creditors Ton CO2/capita Belgium Brazil China Ecuador Germany India Netherlands Uganda USA Congo (1950-2000) CD (model 1) CD (model 2) HCD (model 2) GCD (model2)
Implementing the carbon debt HCD: basis for allocating future emission rights? HCD as a measure for historical responsibility Common but differentiated responsibilities (UNFCCC) emission right = target emission HCD/N (Compensation of the interstate HCD over N years) Developed countries (HCD +) take the lead Developing countries (HCD -)) get space to grow
Some conclusions Belgium has incurred ecological debt by increasingly depending on finite foreign fossil fuels Determining the Carbon Debt involves choices: sustainable level, equitable distribution of entitlements, basis for calculations (emissions, territorial perspective, ) Carbon Debt as a measure for historical responsibility and as a basis for allocating emission rights (cfr( cfr.. 2 nd commitment period)
4. Module Agriculture and Food Supply Wouter Vanhove Department of Plant Production Ghent University
Investigated topics 1. international context of the Belgian livestock sector 2. magnitude of material flow toward the Belgian livestock sector; 3. amount and whereabouts of land cultivated abroad to obtain fodder crops for the Belgian livestock; 4. impact on the environment of this fodder crop cultivation; 5. equity issues of arable land appropriation abroad.
Analysis of Material Flows to the Belgian livestock sector Total Material Requirement (million tonnes of fodder) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 Linear regression (R² = 0.9095). Annual increase = 140 000 tonnes
3. Land requirement abroad (1000 ha) for the Belgian livestock sector 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 Aggregation of results 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 Total land requirement abroad Arable area Belgium Agricultural area Belgium Area fodder crops Belgium
3. Land requirement abroad (1000 ha) for the Belgian livestock sector: Per crop assessment 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 '60 - '69 '70 - '79 '80 -' 89 '90-2001 ha soy ha Linseed ha Sunfl Seed ha Rapeseed ha groundnut ha Sorgho ha Corn ha wheat ha barley other
3. Land requirement abroad (1000 ha) for the Belgian livestock sector: Per country assessment (top 5 countries) 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 '60 -'69 '70 - '79 '80 - '89 '90-2001 Argentina Brazil France USA Canada Other important countries: Sudan, Thailand, Indonesia, Nigeria, Malaysia, Philippines, Paraguay, Russia, China
Eco Debt of Belgium: livestock sector Ecological Debt by Ecological Damage Ecological Damage depends on several variables: Crop, Country of production, Producer, Year of production Environmental Damage = Σ damage per ha * number of ha Sort of interferences: Interferences with SOIL ecosystems Interferences with AQUATIC ecosystems Interferences with FOREST ecosystems Ecological damage caused by GMO s
EcoDebt of Belgium: livestock sector Inequity of land appropriation 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 Per capita use World Per capita use Belgium - Consumption Per capita use Belgium - Production Per capita use Europe, Mid-term target level (Wuppertal)
Conclusions 1. Since 1960 Total Material Requirement for the Belgian livestock sector has increased with 140 000 tonnes annually. 2. Analysis of the 5 main import countries: Over time, a shift in land requirement from the North (France, USA and Canada) to the South (Brazil and Argentina) is observed. 3. Concomitant ecological damage is diverse. Aggregated damage or compensation is difficult to assess. 4. Belgium s per capita use of arable land doubles the per capita use of the world and is four times the Wuppertal mid-term target level. An internationally accepted target level has not yet been developed.
Possible solutions: Conclusions Transition towards European self-sufficiency for fodder crops? Less affluent diets in the North? Problems: Belgium s policies towards its livestock sector are embedded in a CAP; transition will have to be implemented on a European level Currently, world trade agreements enhance export oriented trade of fodder commodities from South to North and the concomitant environmental damage
5. Policy implications Erik Paredis Centre for Sustainable Development Ghent University
Linking ecological debt and policy Aspects of ecological debt Ecological damage Use at the expense of equitable rights Aspects of policy Accounting for historical responsibility (restitution) Climate policy: : mitigation and adaptation External debt relief: : who owes whom? Avoiding daily accumulation On the level of policies: : reorientation towards sustainable production and consumption On the level of instruments: : inclusion of ecological debt
Accounting for historical responsibility In climate policy: historical responsibility as one of the determinants in post-kyoto negotiations Implications for mitigation and adaptation In external debt policy: who owes whom?, ecological debt as an additional argument for debt cancellation External debt owed to Belgium (2000): 16 billion Carbon debt of Belgium (1900-2000, at 10 /tco 2 ): between 42 and 58 billion, of which around 34 billion is inter-state debt
Avoiding daily accumulation On the level of policies: : reorientation of e.g. energy policies agricultural policies trade policies development cooperation On the level of instruments: inclusion of ecodebt Indicators for sustainable development sustainability impact assessment scientific research awareness raising
Some final conclusions Operational weaknesses of the concept can be remedied: definitions, methodology, scientific frame of reference Juridical leads exist, but demand interpretation and elaboration Applications and calculations are possible, but demand value bound choices Policy interventions can be identified for addressing historical responsibility and daily accumulation Sound SD policies should systematically address impact abroad (regardless of the term ecological debt )