East-west Center, Honolulu, HI, USA Feb. 4-5, 23 Lifestyles and Energy Consumption in Households Toru Matsumoto The University of Kitakyushu
1. Introduction CONTENTS 2. Lifestyles and energy consumption 3. Modeling for energy demand of res/com sectors 4. Projection of energy consumption and CO2 emission 5. Future directions
1. Introduction
Introduction Further expansion of Asian mega-cities Urbanization Increase in per capita income synergistic effect Energy consumption by residential and commercial sectors will drastically increase. Not even considering air population issues in urban areas, urban activities hold an important key for future global warming issues also.
Comparison of 4 Cities on Population, Area and Population Density Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai Population (1 3 ) 12,59 1,373 12,78 13,216 Area ( sq.km ) 2,12 66 16,88 6,341 Population density (persons/sq.km) 5,737 17,132 76 2,84 Data Source: Tokyo Statistical Yearbook 21, Statistical Yearbook Seoul 21, Statistical Yearbook of Beijing 21, Statistical Yearbook of Shanghai 21.
2. Lifestyles and Energy Consumption
Trends in GRP per Capita (USD at 1995 price) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 198 1985 199 1995 2
Trends in Flour Space and Size of Household (m 2 /hds.) 16 Shanghai (Rural) 14 12 1 Beijing (Rural) 8 6 Tokyo 4 Beijing (Urban) 2 Shanghai(Urban) 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 (persons/hds.) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Seoul Beijing (Urban) Tokyo Shanghai Beijing (Rural) 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Trends in Ownership Rate of Home Electric Appliances Refrigierator (/ 1 households) 12 1 8 Beijing (urban) Beijing (rural) 6 4 Shanghai (urban) 2 Shanghai (rural) 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Color TV (/1 households) 18 16 14 12 1 Tokyo Beijing (urban) Shanghai (urban) 8 6 Beijing (rural) 4 2 Shanghai (rural) 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Air condition (/1 households) 18 16 14 12 1 Tokyo 8 Shanghai (urban) 6 4 Beijing (urban) 2 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Microwave oven (/1 households) 9 8 7 6 Tokyo 5 Shanghai (urban) 4 3 2 Beijing (urban) 1 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Trends in Share of Household Using Town Gas and LPG 1 8 6 4 2 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Tokyo (town gas) Tokyo (LPG) Beijing (coke gas) Beijing (LPG) Beijing (natural gas) Shanghai (coke gas) Shanghai (LPG)
Trends of Energy Efficiency 3.5 3 2.5 2 COP (Coefficient of Performance) (case of Tokyo) 1.5 1.5 Heating Cooling 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 Electric energy consumption of Refrigerator stock 16 14 12 (kwh/? ) 1 8 6 4 2 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996
Trends of Housing Property (case of Tokyo) ( %) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Detached house Apartment Share of insulating housing 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996
Energy Consumption in (1 6 TOE) Residential Sector 7 6 5 4 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 3 2 1 per Household (TOE/y 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 1.8 Tokyo 1.6 Seoul 1.4 Beijing Shanghai 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. 198 1985 199 1995 2
Compositional Changes of Residential Energy Consumption 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Electricity Heat Diesel Heavy oil Kerosene Natural gas LPG Coke gas Town gas Coal 199 2 199 2 199 2 199 2 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai
Trends in Commercial Energy Consumption per Unit of Tertiary GRP (TOE/ mil. 1995USD) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 198 1985 199 1995 2
Trends in Total Commercial Energy Consumption (1 6 7 6 5 4 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 3 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2
Compositional Changes of Commercial Energy Consumption 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 199 2 199 2 199 2 199 2 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai Others Electricity Heat Other oil prod. Diesel Gasoline Heavy oil Kerosene Natural gas LPG Coke gas Town gas Coal
3. Modeling for Energy Demand of Residential & Commercial Sectors
Data Availability for Residential Sector Energy consumption Residential building property Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai By usage types and energy types? By energy types???? By usage types and energy types? Floor space???? Insulated rate Detached?? Note? Note? Note Apartment?? Note? Note? Note Energy consumption Possession rate appliance Energy efficiency factor Water consumption for residential use per household Energy price By energy types By usages Climate factor Cooling degree day Heating degree day Note: intrusive rate of heat?????????????????????
Data Availability for Commercial Sector Energy consumption Floor space Business activity By building usage types By energy types By building usage types and energy types Total By building usage types Total Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai?????????????? GDP of tertiary industry???? No. of employee of tertiary sector???? Office No. of computers? Hospital No. of patients???? No. of students???? School No. of computers? Energy price By energy types???? Cooling degree day Climate factor???? Heating degree day????
Basic Concept of Analysis Input Data Forward linkage from - external module - external parameters Service Unit Quantity of Service driving force -Residential: number of households -Commercial: floor space Energy Intensity per unit of Service -Service per driving force -Energy demand by service device -Share of service device Energy demand Policy Options
Analytical Flows for Tokyo and Other Cities in Residential Sector <Tokyo> Data collection & composition of variable multiple regression Estimation of energy demand per basic unit by demand types Projection of energy demand by demand types Divide into fuel types basic unit * <Others> Data collection & composition of variable multiple regression Estimation of energy demand per basic unit by fuel types basic unit * Projection of energy demand by fuel types Projection of CO2 emission Projection of CO2 emission Scenario analysis for CO2 reduction * Basic unit = household Scenario analysis for CO2 reduction * Basic unit = flour space or household
Matching Demand Type to Energy Type (case of Beijing) Cooling Final Energy Primary Energy Lighting/Power Electricity Coal Urban Individual Heating DHS Cooking/Hot water Coal Heat Gas Oil LNG LNG LPG Coking gas Rural Cooling Lighting/Power Individual Heating Cooking/Hot water Electricity Coal Coal Oil LNG
Matching Demand Type to Energy Type (case of Shanghai) Final Energy Primary Energy Cooling Lighting/Power Electricity Coal Coal Oil LNG Urban and Rural Cooking/Hot water Gas LNG LPG Coking gas
Matching Demand Type to Energy Type (case of Seoul) Final Energy Primary Energy Cooling Lighting/Power Heating/ hot water Individual DHS Electricity Coal Oil Heat Coal Oil LNG Cooking Gas LNG LPG
Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption for heating possession of device climate insulated housing energy price employees income per household size of household Floor space per household Energy consumption per floor space Number of household Energy consumption for heating diffusion of town gas Future forecasting energy demand matrix electricity town gas LPG kerosene
Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption for Cooling possession of device climate efficiency of device employees income per household size of household Floor space per household Energy consumption per floor space Number of household Energy consumption for cooling Future forecasting electricity
Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption by Hot-water Supply insulated housing energy price water consumption per household Energy consumption per household Number of household Energy consumption for hot-water diffusion of town gas Future forecasting energy demand matrix electricity town gas LPG kerosene
Flow Chart of the Estimation of Energy Consumption for Lighting, driving, etc. possession of device energy price efficiency of device employees income per household size of household Floor space per household Energy consumption per floor space Number of household Energy consumption for lighting, etc. diffusion of town gas Future forecasting energy demand matrix electricity town gas LPG kerosene
Analytical Flow of Commercial Sector Data Collection Prediction Prediction Energy Consumption per Unit of Tertiary Industry GDP Total GDP Share of Tertiary Industry GDP to Total GDP Total Commercial Energy Consumption Matrix of Energy Consumption Commercial Energy Consumption by Fuel Types Prediction of CO2 Emission
4. Projection of Energy Consumption and CO2 emissions
Setting up the Exogenous Variable (case of Tokyo) Degree: average (1975-99) Energy price: average (1991-99) Water consumption: Straight line approximation of water consumption per capita (1975-99) Number of household: estimated by National Institute of Population, Japan Size of household : estimated by National Institute of Population, Japan Employees income: average of increasing rate (1989-99)
Projection of GRP per Capita (USD, 1995price) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Projection of Residential Energy Consumption per Household (TOE/hds.) 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Projection of Total Residential Energy Consumption (1 6 TOEs) 7 Tokyo 6 Seoul 5 Beijing Shanghai 4 3 2 1 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Projection of Residential Energy Consumption (1 6 TOEs) Tokyo 7 6 Tokyo 5 4 3 2 1 1975198198519919952252121522 Kerosene LPG Town gas Electricity (1 6 TOEs) 7 Tokyo 6 Seoul 5 4 3 2 1 199 1996 21 26 211 216 Electricity Diesel Heavy oil Kerosene LPG Town gas Coal (1 6 TOEs) 7 Tokyo 6 Beijing 5 4 3 2 1 Electricity Heat Nautural gas LPG Town gas Coal (1 6 TOEs) 7Tokyo 6 Shanghai 5 4 3 2 1 Electricity Natrual Gas Town gas LPG Kerosene Coal 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Estimated and Actual Values of Total Residential Energy Consumption (case of Shanghai) (1 6 TOEs) 3.5 3. Estimated Actrual 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
CO2 Emission Factor by Energy Types Heat (China) Heat (Korea) Electricity (China) Electricity (Korea) Electricity (Japan) Heavy oil Kerosene Diesel Gasoline Coke-oven gas LPG Natural gas Town gas General coal (1 6 t-co2/toe) 2 4 6 8 1
Projection of Total CO2 Emission of Residential Energy Consumption 25 2 15 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 1 5 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Trends and Projection of Share of Tertiary GRP to Total GRP (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Projection of Energy Consumption per Unit of Tertiary GRP (TOE/ mil. 1995USD) 7 6 5 4 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 3 2 1 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Projection of Total Commercial Energy Consumption (1 6 TOEs) 14 12 1 8 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 6 4 2 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Projection of Commercial Energy Consumption (1 6 TOEs) 7 Tokyo 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Electricity Town Gas LPG Heavy Oil Kerosene (1 6 TOEs) 7 6 Seoul 5 4 3 2 1 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Others Heat Electricity Town Gas LPG Other Oil Heavy Oil Kerosene Diesel Gasoline Coal (1 6 TOEs) 7 6 Beijing 5 4 3 2 1 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Others Electricity Heat Coke gas NG LPG Disel kerosene gasoline Fuel oil Coal (1 6 TOEs) 14 12 Shanghai 1 8 6 4 2 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Others Electricity Coke Other Oils Disel Kerosene Gasoline Fuel oil Coal
Projection of Total CO2 Emission due to Commercial Energy Consumption (1 6 t-co2). 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
5. Future Directions
Future Directions Improvements in data and model structures Two directions can be considered 1. to aim at more simplified model to deal with same structure as other mega-cities 2. to aim at a complete, bottom-up model which model variables can be closely based on policy options. Scenario analysis Scenarios can be described in the area of 1. household attributes and lifestyle factors 2. architectural characteristics 3. characteristics of energy devices 4. carbon intensity in energy consumption
Thank you!
Concept of Scenario Analysis BaU 45 4 energy consumption by demand types 35 (Tcal/year) ( 1 3 kcal/m 2 /year 3 25 2 15 1 5 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 4 35 3 25 2 15 Scenario generator Energy consumption per floor space (heating) lighting hot-water cooling heating (Tcal/year) Reflection of scenario energy consumption by demand types 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 lighting hot-water cooling heating 1 actual estimated 5 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22
Example of scenarios Improvements in energy efficiency of appliances & equipments Improvements in Insulated performance of buildings Improvements in carbon intensity of energy etc.